Bundesliga I & II Predictions > May 22nd - 24th

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

The next round of Bundesliga I and II matches are coming up this weekend. There's a lot to digest after the first batch of matches after the suspension last weekend. Let's see if we can maximise those profits by putting our heads together! 

[malabgd]

Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin

 

 

Hertha BSC

Doubtful: Ascacíbar (8/0 m, probably out), Wolf (21/1 f)

Out (injuries/other): Kraft (4/0 g), Stark (17/1 d), Rekik (14/1 d)

Suspended:

 

Union Berlin

Doubtful: Lenz (25/0 d), Malli (7/0 m)

Out (injuries/other): Becker (12/0 f), Gogia (3/0 m), Dehl (0/0 f), Opfermann (0/0 m)

Suspended: Schlotterbeck (16/0 d)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

 

Interesting facts based only on statistics

62% chance that both Hertha BSC and Union Berlin will score in this game.

70% chance that there will be more than 2 goals in this game.

43% chance that there will be more than 3 goals in this game.

[Trotter]

Done a win single on Hertha 27/20 Unibet

If there's a few games on I often do a 'Over 1.5' treble for small stakes just for an interest .... I might do the 3 German games today but haven't placed the bet yet..... the odds are a bit rubbish so I might include a Belarus match with two German ones

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding Bundesliga and II Bundesliga

Monchengladbach have scored in each of their last 8 matches in Bundesliga.
Hoffenheim conceded at least 1 goal in each of their last 7 matches in Bundesliga.
Leverkusen have been undefeated in their last 6 matches in Bundesliga.
Paderborn have failed to win in their last 7 matches in Bundesliga.
Dortmund have scored 2 goals or more in each of their last 4 away matches in Bundesliga.
81% of Bayern Munich’s matches had over 2.5 goals scored in Bundesliga.
Sandhausen have conceded 2 goals or more in each of their last 4 matches in II Bundesliga.
Regensburg conceded at least 1 goal in each of their last 10 away matches in II Bundesliga.
Osnabruck have failed to win in their last 9 matches in II Bundesliga.

You can find interesting 46 Football Betting Streaks for 23.05.2020 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-23-05-2020-18647

[Snoopdog]

Is this fake news?

See: https://tvguide.betfair.com/english-uk/tv

This shows the Berlin Derby on both SkySports Football (which I have) and BT (which I don't) at 7.30pm.

My VirginMedia TV Guide does not show it, nor does Sky online schedule.

Probably an error ???

[StevieDay1983]

4 hours ago, Snoopdog said:

Is this fake news?

See: https://tvguide.betfair.com/english-uk/tv

This shows the Berlin Derby on both SkySports Football (which I have) and BT (which I don't) at 7.30pm.

My VirginMedia TV Guide does not show it, nor does Sky online schedule.

Probably an error ???

Yeah, probably an error. It's only on BT Sport. It might be getting confused because SKY customers can buy BT Sport through their subscription. I think you can live stream the game on Bet365 if you have an account.

[StevieDay1983]

Hertha Berlin vs Union Berlin

The first Berlin derby since the coronavirus suspension is coming up in the Bundesliga to kick off proceedings this weekend. It's a 7:30pm BST kick-off between Hertha Berlin and Union Berlin at the Olympiastadion. Just 1 point separates these two sides in the middle of the league table so it's one of those beloved "six-pointers". Who will take the points and bragging rights?

Hertha Berlin sit in 11th place and resumed their resurgence in form under head coach Jurgen Klinsmann thanks to a 3-0 away win against Hoffenheim last weekend. That victory has now made it 3 league games unbeaten. Unfortunately, the team's home form remains a sticking point. Die Alte Dame have now failed to win any of their last 6 home matches in the league. However, with their last 3 home league games seeing 13 goals scored we should expect fireworks.

Union Berlin are still the little club that could. Last season's second tier play-off winners were tipped to go straight back down but find themselves in 12th position. Urs Fischer's side had a tough re-introduction to football with a game against reigning champions and current league leaders Bayern Munich. It was a valiant display but ultimately the giants of German football were too strong for Die Eisernen with a 2-0 win. Worryingly, that result made it 3 league games without a win for Union Berlin leaving them just 7 points above the relegation play-off spot.

This is a tricky one. The ELO ratings are actually backing the visitors to take the points in this game. Hertha Berlin are certainly a side in the ascendancy and with them playing on their home ground you'd think they have the advantage. Taking the crowd out of the equation will be an interesting proposition, particularly for a derby game. I actually think sometimes the away teams feed off the hostility and with a more sterile surrounding it could take the pressure off the home team. I'm backing a narrow home win.

Hertha Berlin to Win @ 2.42 with VBet

Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.88 with 888Sport

[Trotter]

7 hours ago, Trotter said:

Done a win single on Hertha 27/20 Unibet

If there's a few games on I often do a 'Over 1.5' treble for small stakes just for an interest .... I might do the 3 German games today but haven't placed the bet yet..... the odds are a bit rubbish so I might include a Belarus match with two German ones

My 'over 1.5' treble is still alive ..... going on to the Berlin derby

It was about 6/4

[betcatalog]

An important match for the two clubs, which need the points of victory. I will risk and bet on the necessity of Werder, which is better away from home. It is one of the last chances for Werder not to lose
Freiburg vs Werder Bremen @@ Χ2 D

A difficult exit for the Yellows, the Wolves will not be an easy opponent. Nevertheless, I will bet on the best team, in the form of the attacking Haaland and I will risk the victory of Dortmund.
Wolfsburg vs Dortmund @@ WIN Dortmund

A match with a strong scoring motivation, participation in the Champions League is not a small thing. I expect them to give their all for the victory, they have excellent offensive lines and a goal can give rhythm to the duel. I will bet on many goals
Gladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen @@ Over 2,5

[StevieDay1983]

Borussia Monchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen

The big game in UK TV this weekend might be Wolfsburg versus Borussia Dortmund but I'm going to focus my attention on the top-of-the-table clash between Borussia Monchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen that kicks off at 2:30pm BST from Borussia-Park. Both sides are in the thick of the action trying to qualify for next season's Champions League so the result of this game could have a huge say on who succeeds in reaching their target.

Borussia Monchengladbach were the early season pace setters but the form of Marco Rose's men has started to drift off a little bit. The suspension for coronavirus appears to have done them good with the club coming back to action with a convincing 3-1 win away to Eintracht Frankfurt. That results has seen the team move to 3rd in the table and just 6 points off the pace of the league leaders Bayern Munich. Defensive concerns remain an issue for Die Fohlen with the team failing to keep a clean sheet in their last 9 league matches. On the plus side, it is 9 wins from their last 11 home matches in the league.

Bayer Leverkusen sit in 5th place and just 1 point outside the automatic Champions League qualification spots. Peter Bosz is doing a fine job up in the North Rhine-Westphalia. His team continued where they left off before the suspension with a 4-1 win away to Werder Bremen. That victory made it an unbeaten run of 6 league games with 5 wins coming in that spell. Bayer are now undefeated in their last 3 away league games and have scored 8 goals during that run.

There is no doubt that the statistics suggest we should prepare ourselves for a belter of a game here. Both teams have scored in 85% of Borussia Monchengladbach's home matches this season. Throw in the fact that over 2.5 goals were scored and both teams scored in every single one of Bayer's last 5 away league games and you can see where this is going. I can't call it. The bookies can't call it. The ELO ratings favour the away side but would that be the case if they had a tougher game than against a beleaguered Werder last week? I'm calling a high-scoring draw.

Draw @ 4.00 with Bet365

Total Goals Scored Over 3.50 @ 2.25 with 888Sport

[Trotter]

Done a win single on Freiburg 23/20 Unibet ....... mainly because Bremen were so useless the other day I can't see them avoiding defeat to anyone in the next couple of weeks

Bit of a dilemma in that I'd rather watch Gladbach v Leverkused which should be a feast of attacking football ..... but I can't find a bet on that game

Done an 'Over 1.5' treble on Darmstadt plus 2 Belarus games ,....... just over 6/4. The 'Over 1.5' odds on the Bundesliga games are too short to include

[StevieDay1983]

14 minutes ago, Trotter said:

Done a win single on Freiburg 23/20 Unibet ....... mainly because Bremen were so useless the other day I can't see them avoiding defeat to anyone in the next couple of weeks

Bit of a dilemma in that I'd rather watch Gladbach v Leverkused which should be a feast of attacking football ..... but I can't find a bet on that game

Done an 'Over 1.5' treble on Darmstadt plus 2 Belarus games ,....... just over 6/4. The 'Over 1.5' odds on the Bundesliga games are too short to include

Ooh, would be interested to hear about your Belarus bets over in the Belarus forum. I'm definitely watching the Monchengladbach versus Leverkusen game. I think the over 3.5 goals is a decent value one for that.

[harry_rag]

First bet of the day for me is a buy of Freiburg headed goal mins at 14 with SPIN. Same stats based rationale that lead to a decent win on Leverkusen's last week. The price is 16-19 elsewhere though that would include headed own goals as well.

I've also had a small bet on both teams scoring a header at 14/1 Hills though I'd have preferred a juicy price about 2 or more headers scored.

[StevieDay1983]

Bayern Munich vs Eintracht Frankfurt

The evening kick-off in the Bundesliga today is a 5:30pm BST start when league leaders Bayern Munich welcome a struggling Eintracht Frankfurt to hell... I mean, the Allianz Arena. It won't take you long to guess that we're going to be backing a convincing home win in this one. Do the statistics suggest that we should be backing this game to end any other way?

Bayern Munich are sitting proudly top of the league with 58 points from their 26 league games so far. It's been far from a vintage season by Die Bayern but they've somehow pulled themselves back into the mix and are now situated 4 points clear of 2nd placed Borussia Dortmund. Manager Hans Dieter-Flick saw his side overcome a resilient Union Berlin with a 2-0 victory last week. That victory made it 11 wins and 1 draw from their last 12 league games. It was way back on 30th November, 2019 when this side last tasted defeat at home in the league.

Eintracht Frankfurt had been looking like they could take the next step in their modern day evolution to break into the Champions League spots but player sales have halted that progress. Adi Hutter's side are now wallowing down in 13th place and after their disappointing 3-1 loss at home to Borussia Monchengladbach last week only sit 5 points above the relegation play-off place. It's now 4 defeats in a row in the league with 13 goals conceded during that run. These are worrying times for fans of Die Adler.

It goes without saying that everyone is backing the home win here. It's simply more a question of by how many and how quickly will the Frankfurt defences crumble? Bayern are simply irresistible at home right now and are storming their way to another Bundesliga title. Only something special and miraculous can prevent a one-way affair in this game and I can't see it.

Bayern Munich -2 @ 2.00 with Betfair

Robert Lewandowski to Score 2 Goals or More @ 2.50 with SpreadEx

[harry_rag]

A couple of goalscorers in the 2:30 games, Diaby 10/3 for Leverkusen and Rashica 3/1 for Werder, both with PP.

[allyhibs]

6 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Bayern Munich vs Eintracht Frankfurt

The evening kick-off in the Bundesliga today is a 5:30pm BST start when league leaders Bayern Munich welcome a struggling Eintracht Frankfurt to hell... I mean, the Allianz Arena. It won't take you long to guess that we're going to be backing a convincing home win in this one. Do the statistics suggest that we should be backing this game to end any other way?

Bayern Munich are sitting proudly top of the league with 58 points from their 26 league games so far. It's been far from a vintage season by Die Bayern but they've somehow pulled themselves back into the mix and are now situated 4 points clear of 2nd placed Borussia Dortmund. Manager Hans Dieter-Flick saw his side overcome a resilient Union Berlin with a 2-0 victory last week. That victory made it 11 wins and 1 draw from their last 12 league games. It was way back on 30th November, 2019 when this side last tasted defeat at home in the league.

Eintracht Frankfurt had been looking like they could take the next step in their modern day evolution to break into the Champions League spots but player sales have halted that progress. Adi Hutter's side are now wallowing down in 13th place and after their disappointing 3-1 loss at home to Borussia Monchengladbach last week only sit 5 points above the relegation play-off place. It's now 4 defeats in a row in the league with 13 goals conceded during that run. These are worrying times for fans of Die Adler.

It goes without saying that everyone is backing the home win here. It's simply more a question of by how many and how quickly will the Frankfurt defences crumble? Bayern are simply irresistible at home right now and are storming their way to another Bundesliga title. Only something special and miraculous can prevent a one-way affair in this game and I can't see it.

Bayern Munich -2 @ 2.00 with Betfair

Robert Lewandowski to Score 2 Goals or More @ 2.50 with SpreadEx

Nice one Stevie, followed you with both of these, 1pt on each, my only bets of the day 

[Torque]

Did they both come in @allyhibs I thought Lewandowski only scored one 

[allyhibs]

28 minutes ago, Torque said:

Did they both come in @allyhibs I thought Lewandowski only scored one 

Ah, so he did, I thought he scored 2!! Wind kicked out of my sails then, even for the day 

[Torque]

I wish I'd been wrong. Still, break even is better than a loss 

[allyhibs]

15 minutes ago, Torque said:

I wish I'd been wrong. Still, break even is better than a loss 

I was sure flashscores had him as scoring the second goal, then when he scored the third just after half time I thought the bet had won. Ah well.

A wise man once said, 'sometimes, not losing is the same as winning'

 

Edited May 23, 2020 by allyhibs

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding Bundesliga and II Bundesliga

RB Leipzig did not concede any goal in their last 3 away matches in Bundesliga.
FC Koln have scored in each of their last 12 matches in Bundesliga.
77% of FSV Mainz’s matches had over 2.5 goals scored in Bundesliga.
Dusseldorf conceded at least 1 goal in 92% of their away matches in Bundesliga.
Bielefeld have been undefeated in their last 8 matches in II Bundesliga.
Bochum have scored 26% of their goals in the first 15 minutes in II Bundesliga.
Dynamo Dresden conceded at least 1 goal in 85% of their home matches in II Bundesliga.
Greuther Furth have scored in each of their last 11 matches in II Bundesliga.
Holstein Kiel conceded at least 1 goal in each of their last 12 home matches in II Bundesliga.

You can find interesting 23 Football Betting Streaks for 24.05.2020 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-24-05-2020-18649

[sajtion]

i don't get how leipzig is so short to win and btts with the bookies. it's something like. 2.5/1. they drew 3 in a row and managed to score 1 goal or less in four of the last six. it's just ridiculous 

schalke didn't impress me whatsoever in their previous match. they squad is full of such average players and nobody stands out as a match winner. augsburg is struggling especially in away games but they will not making it easy for hosts.

[Trotter]

None of the German games meet my odds criteria for inclusion in a 'Over 1.5 treble' so I'm not doing one today

Done a 'Over 2.5 Double' on the games at Schalke and Hamburg - just uner 5/2

Also a Win double on Schalke and Cologne - 5/2

If Schalke fail to win I'll do another win double on Bate Borisov (BEL) and Cologne but I won't bother if Schalke win

Full day's Footy on BT Sport ! .......... ?

[StevieDay1983]

FC Koln vs Fortuna Dusseldorf

The Bundesliga action this weekend ends with an intriguing clash between FC Koln and Fortuna Dusseldorf. Kick-off is scheduled for 5:30pm BST this evening at the Mungersdorfer Stadion. Both teams are really keen to get the 3 points in this one but for differing reasons with the hosts chasing a Europa League qualification spot and the visitors desperate to get out of the relegation play-off position.

FC Koln come into this game in 11th place and just 6 points behind Wolfsburg who currently occupy the last automatic qualification place for the Europa League. Markus Gisdol has seen his team pick up a decent run of results since his appointment back in November last year. It's now 8 wins from their last 12 league games. However, they have failed to win both of their last two matches in the league. It seems that when this FC Koln team win they do it on the back of a strong defensive performance with 6 of their 10 league wins bringing a clean sheet.

Fortuna Dusseldorf are now flying quite as high as their opponents for today's game with the team down in 16th place and 4 points adrift of safety. Uwe Rosler's side remain outside the automatic relegation places by just 2 points but time is running out for a revival. Results have been more positive since Rosler took over in January. Just 1 loss in their last 7 league games is building confidence but having drawn 5 of those league matches suggests that this team is still bordering on the wrong side of conservative and cautious play. Away form remains an issue with the team having only won 2 of their 13 away matches in the league this season.

Given the fact that Fortuna Dusseldorf are draw specialists you'd be forgiven for backing that outcome. I just think this issue of their away form could come back and bite them. FC Koln are looking like a side that could gate crash the European qualification race. When a team in form is playing at home it would be foolish to bet against them no matter who they are playing let alone a side that only has 1 win from their last 9 league games. It'll be close but I think FC Koln could sneak it.

FC Koln to Win @ 1.82 with VBet

Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.69 with VBet

[harry_rag]

A couple of plays in the B2 games for me, largely driven by ref stats.

Karlsruher v Bochum (Welz): Buy pen goal mins at 16 SPIN and back penalty awarded 3.34 BF (bigger with sportsbook)

Holstein Kiel v Stuttgart (Schroder): 4-6 cards shown at 23/20 Hills

In the top flight, Gregoritsch anytime at 3/1 looks decent with PP.