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StevieDay1983

Premier League Predictions > May 20th - 23rd

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I've included a couple of Belarus matches (the games at Slutsk and Vitebsk) with Darmstadt in Bundesliga 2 in my usual daily bet of an 'Over 1.5 goals' treble ......... I don't really do much form study for this just go by the odds.

I only usually include games where it's 1/3 or better. If any game is 1/2 I pretty much always stick that one in ....... though that's pretty rare (one of my Belarus games yesterday was 1/2). Treble odds usually come to 6/4 or 2/1

So ....... I don't go into it in any depth as I figure it's fairly random as to whether there's going to be 2 goals in a game

Small stakes .... spread the games through the day for an all day interest as long as it lasts !

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Looked at penalty angle in Belarus, ref's are Shcherbakov, Sevostyanik and Stetsurin and I'd rate the games as strong, poor and good in that order.

I've decided to buy the aggregate penalty goal mins in all 3 games at 46 with SPIN (would cost you 55 elsewhere) and done the pens taken trixie at 5/2, 9/4 and 11/4 with Sky Bet. I've also done the muppety 2+ pens taken trixie at 20/1 plus odds.

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Vitebsk vs Dinamo Minsk

The final game in the Belarus Premier League this weekend is the 6:30pm BST start of Vitebsk versus Dinamo Minsk at the Vitebskiy Central Sports Complex. The home side will be aiming to end their run without a win after a pair of decent recent performances against an away side that are showing signs that things may be on the up if they can add some consistency to their results.

Vitebsk sit in 11th place and have stopped their own rot with two draws against Belshina and Shakhtyor Soligorsk. Sergey Yasinsky will no doubt have wanted to get more than 2 points from those two games but they put an end to the losing run they were going through. Under 2.5 goals being scored in 8 of their last 9 league games shows they're far from being the division's biggest entertainers. It's gritty, it's dull, but it's keeping them above the water line right now and that's all their expectations appear to be this season.

Dinamo Minsk had looked to be experiencing a revival under new man Leonid Kuchuk with a victory over Smolevichi but back-to-back losses to FC Slutsk and Dynamo Brest dampened those hopes. The impressive 1-0 win over high-flying Isloch last week has re-ignited the excitement amongst the fans and they'll be heading into this game thinking they can get just their second away league win of the season having lost 5 of their 6 league matches on the road this season so far.

I am cautious about backing Dinamo Minsk right now. This season they have been a good friend and a cruel mistress rolled into one. I do think they're going to get more positive results under Kuchuk and this is one of them. Vitebsk just look a little short of confidence and lack a bit of adventure in their play. I think if Dinamo Minsk play this correctly they can come away with a clean sheet win.

Dinamo Minsk to Win @ 1.92 with Unibet

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.63 with Unibet

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Think I'm going to swerve cards today. All 3 ref's have a fairly high and upward trending cards average but that seems at least adequately (if not excessively) reflected in the prices. My gut feel thoughts are:

Selling at an aggregate 197 would probably show a profit

Backing 4-6 cards in each game might be profitable (13/10, 6/5 and 13/10 again)

>60 at 11/10 in the middle game might just be a bit of value.

Nothing pulling me strongly enough so far.

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1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

:ok Chukhley scores a 61st minute penalty, which is nice when (as per the previous post) when you've bought penalty goal minutes.

I'll spare you the long version of my joke about his almost telepathic on-field relationship with his brother Barry. Suffice to say, the punchline is "to me, to you, to me..." :eyes

Even sweeter when it was never a penalty, shocking decision by the ref. :ok

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2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

:ok Chukhley scores a 61st minute penalty, which is nice when (as per the previous post) when you've bought penalty goal minutes.

I'll spare you the long version of my joke about his almost telepathic on-field relationship with his brother Barry. Suffice to say, the punchline is "to me, to you, to me..." :eyes

You're on fire this week @harry_rag :lol

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BATE v Din. Brest.

Belarus Cup final today is a re-run of the league game on Wednesday in which BATE ran out comfortable 3-1 winners and I don't see any reason why it won't be the same ish scoreline today. The price has dropped quite a bit for the BATE win though so I'm going to leave that and have a couple of riskier bets. I'm 3pts up for the week so far, thanks to BATE winning on Wed, so I've done low stakes here to ensure I finish the week in profit.

BATE Half Time @ 2.50 - 1pt.

BATE -1 @ 3.00 - 0.5pt.

Edit:

Basil's had a word and told me to stop being so cautious, BATE look like a max bet to him. Sod it, who am I to argue with a cat.

BATE @ 1.73 - 4pts.

 

Edited by allyhibs

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I'm taking the potentially unwise move of opposing you and the moggy given your track record with BATE! 

I fancy Dinamo Brest's chances of an upset at the prices. To win at 5.6 and to lift the trophy at 11/5.

Also have to go low on cards with Kurgheli in charge. Can sell bookings at 66 but I've favoured going with the 50-ups at 22.

Anytime interest is Savitski at 4/1.

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Jeez, that didn't exactly go to plan, 5.5pts lost after 90 minutes meant 2.5pts down for the week, what to do?

That's right, chase my losses. I'd had a few beers and Basil was egging me on from the sidelines, he was full of the catnip.

2.5pts on BATE to win extra time @ 3.00. 

BATE missed a couple of real sitters and we thought it was all lost but there's nothing sweeter than a 121 minute winner.

Means the week ends in profit once again, 12.5% added to the bank this week. Phew!

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