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Tennis Tips - April 29 - May 5


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Estoril doubles

G. Granollers/M. Lopez @1.581 Pinnacle 10/10

Both Andreozzi and Dellien will play qualifying in Madrid on Saturday. It's an 1000 Masters event in Madrid so i doubt they gonna prioritise a doubles match here. Furthermore, Granollers/Lopez looking like a decent team to compete anyway.

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Estoril doubles

G. Granollers/M. Lopez @1.581 Pinnacle 10/10

Both Andreozzi and Dellien will play qualifying in Madrid on Saturday. It's an 1000 Masters event in Madrid so i doubt they gonna prioritise a doubles match here. Furthermore, Granollers/Lopez looking like a decent team to compete anyway.

Nice one! Something similar story was with Garín/Londero where Londero "had to leave", while Garin preparing against Zverev. Odds were around 1.30, but I took Molchanov/Zelenay for a 2-0 win for 1.85. 6-3 6-4

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Malek Jaziri to beat Leonardo Mayer at 3.20 with Unibet

I think we could see Malek fighting for everything in this match because Estoril is important to him. Leonardo wants to play in Madrid, no reason for him to have motivation to play any longer in Estoril.

Could you please give more details about your suppositions?  Why is Estoril so important to Jaziri? I guess Jaziri would like to play in Madrid no less than Mayer... 

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Could you please give more details about your suppositions?  Why is Estoril so important to Jaziri? I guess Jaziri would like to play in Madrid no less than Mayer... 

Estoril is important for Maleks form that he is searching for and he's never played in Madrid before while Leonardo does have 90 ranking points to defend there from last season and Leo has been in Madrid 5 times reaching the third round twice and one of those times where last season. But it's a risk I'll have to take that Madrid would be equally important to Malek but I think he's taking this tournament in Estoril more serious than Leonardo.

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@vvararu and I think you should look at how big the chance this upset is going to happen. The chance for an upset increases by the day if there has been only favourites winning and so far in Estoril and Munich there has been no upsets as Berrettini is cruising for the win in the last match of today in Germany. Now there's only Malek Jaziri and Yoshihito Nishioka left as upset possibilities in todays ATP tennis and at least one of those two should be an upset.

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Hello all,

I view this fourm quite regularly and there are some great informative posts and tips so i thank you all.

 

I had to respond to this comment though:

 

@vvararu and I think you should look at how big the chance this upset is going to happen. The chance for an upset increases by the day if there has been only favourites winning and so far in Estoril and Munich there has been no upsets as Berrettini is cruising for the win in the last match of today in Germany. Now there's only Malek Jaziri and Yoshihito Nishioka left as upset possibilities in todays ATP tennis and at least one of those two should be an upset. 

 

That is classic gambler's fallacy and i would not use that as a basis to make a bet. Its exactly like betting on red on a roulette table because black has come up 10 times previous. Its just not something that should be done if taking sports betting seriously.

Edited by Gully_22
typo
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Hello all,

I view this fourm quite regularly and there are some great informative posts and tips so i thank you all.

 

I had to respond to this comment though:

 

@vvararu and I think you should look at how big the chance this upset is going to happen. The chance for an upset increases by the day if there has been only favourites winning and so far in Estoril and Munich there has been no upsets as Berrettini is cruising for the win in the last match of today in Germany. Now there's only Malek Jaziri and Yoshihito Nishioka left as upset possibilities in todays ATP tennis and at least one of those two should be an upset. 

 

That is classic gambler's fallacy and i would not use that as a basis to make a bet. Its exactly like betting on red on a roulette table because black has come up 10 times previous. Its just not something that should be done if taking sports betting seriously.

Well I can't tell you how many times it's a working strategy.. I call it probability bets. Happened yesterday with Alejandro Davidovich Fokina who upset Jeremy Chardy and happens tonight with Malek Jaziri, the only upset of the day maybe.

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Estoril is important for Maleks form that he is searching for and he's never played in Madrid before while Leonardo does have 90 ranking points to defend there from last season and Leo has been in Madrid 5 times reaching the third round twice and one of those times where last season. But it's a risk I'll have to take that Madrid would be equally important to Malek but I think he's taking this tournament in Estoril more serious than Leonardo.

Ok. Got your thoughts. Anyway, good pick.

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Well I can't tell you how many times it's a working strategy.. I call it probability bets. Happened yesterday with Alejandro Davidovich Fokina who upset Jeremy Chardy and happens tonight with Malek Jaziri, the only upset of the day maybe.

I understand the thinking behind it but it still isn't a rational reason to make a bet. Each individual match up is independent of the other, so what happens in the earlier matches has no bearing on the later ones - i suppose it just feels like it does. I think we are all guilty of thinking this though.

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Malek Jaziri to beat David Goffin at 4.70 with Unibet

Jaziri seems to have his sights on something big in Estoril. The way he played yesterday is enough against David who is in no sort of form at all. Davids victory against Joao Sousa is nothing to brag about since Joao hasn't been too great all season.

 

David is 10/10 this season and many of the losses have come against players who doesn't even play close to how good Malek has played this week. Malek is playing better than his ranking currently and David is playing worse than his ranking and that should make this match close and perhaps work to Maleks advantage. Malek hasn't been good this season, losing 12 matches and winning only 4 but I look at the way he played yesterday and that was bloody good.

They have faced twice before on hardcourt in 2009 and 2016 and Malek won both. I don't think the odds are put correctly here.

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Aleksandar Vukic to beat Tommy Paul @ 3,75 with bet365

As @eros pointed out, Paul already secured the Roland Garros WC yesterday and has played tons of matches past three weeks so he should feel tired. Good spot to fade Paul here.

Pretty unlikely but still quite likely if Tommy is all to ragged and he twisted his ankle and had it wrapped yesterday so Aleksandar could quite likely get a walkover here to.

But fading players that are likely tired or injured isn't smart because you probably get a walkover from that supposed to be tired or injured player instead. But Tommy Paul doesn't seem to want to throw in the towel to easy so I'll watch this match on the livestream if it comes live later and see where it will lead. Only then there can be some bet to be found.

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What do you think guys about Tiafoe - Cuevas? Tiafoe is underdog but from one side he has to defend final points from 2018 Estoril and from another side Cuevas will have to play in Madrid and to defend his past year 1/16 presence.

Tiafoe is younger and should have more energy while Cuevas will probably need a couple of days of rest before Madrid.

 

From another perspective if Cuevas wins today and reaches semis, he will get 90 points, exactly as many as he have to defend in Madrid.

 

Any thoughts about this?

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Who knows what his thought process will be or if there even is one. For me, if I'm Cuevas then I'm trying to win this tournament. But over the years I've seen so many results from so many players that have basically said 'I have no interest in winning this tournament' that I've long since given up trying to second guess.

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Teichman was that impressive to me in all her 7 games that I must take her big tomorrow. I won't be surprised if she's going to finish her job in straight sets. Nice value to me. Enjoy your weekend guys. 

Tennis - WTA Prague - Final 

Jil Teichmann - vs - Karolina Muchova

Jil Teichmann  @ 2.21 Pinnacle

9/10

 

 

I agree Teichmann in great form , nice to see You back eros :)

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