Tennis Tips - April 29 - May 5

[CzechPunter]

[j6u1uv4n4]

On 4/27/2019 at 9:38 PM, CzechPunter said:

Thiem did well!

Beatriz Haddad Maia to beat Jil Belen Teichmann at 1.71 with Pinnacle

The only bet that's caught my eye for tomorrow. Haddad did well in Prague two years ago, but she was unlucky to run into the in-form Buzarnescu last year. She likes the conditions though and she's been performing slightly above Teichmann all year long in my opinion, so I'd have her at 1.57 here. Slight value I'd say.

Czech do you think Allertova can finish the job? She's @2,62 odds in bet365. I don't think she's been in any good form since the AO run in 2018. She's been losing in ITF25k first rounds lately. Her first two q round results are the only thing to go by and the fact that she is a Prague girl, albeit not with any good results from that tournament before. Not sure I can trust to bet on her, as beating Ormaechea and Flink is not very reassuring. 

For some reason I have a hunch for this though.

[four-leaf]

7 hours ago, j6u1uv4n4 said:

Czech do you think Allertova can finish the job? She's @2,62 odds in bet365. I don't think she's been in any good form since the AO run in 2018. She's been losing in ITF25k first rounds lately. Her first two q round results are the only thing to go by and the fact that she is a Prague girl, albeit not with any good results from that tournament before. Not sure I can trust to bet on her, as beating Ormaechea and Flink is not very reassuring. 

For some reason I have a hunch for this though.

I would leave the WTA qualies alone for now at least. There's nothing for me to pick up there except probable losses.

[four-leaf]

Marton Fucsovics to beat (-1.5 games) Lorenzo Sonego with 2.12 at Unibet

Only this one for me today. Lorenzo is making progress now on clay and fights to be in the maindraws of tournaments and does quite well. But he often has letdowns along the way and I think Marton is to good for him atm. They've met twice both times in 2016 and it's 1-1 with Marton having won the only clay meeting in Todi on the challenger tour by 2-1 and he covered the handicap easily then. I wouldn't be surprised to see Marton winning this with something to spare.

Edited April 29, 2019 by four-leaf

[CzechPunter]

@j6u1uv4n4 She certainly has enough quality and determination to do so, but I underestimated Teichman big time yesterday, so I'm a bit wary. I wouldn't want to put you off backing Allertova though.

[CzechPunter]

Brydan Klein (+4.5) to beat Alexander Ritschard at 1.88 with Pinnacle

The only bet that's caught my eye today honestly. While Klein obviously doesn't really like clay, I don't think that he should be without a chance against Ritschard, who's still the worse player of the two overall. Clay courts in the USA are rarely incredibly slow and Klein has a respectable serve, so I think that he'll be able to cover the 4.5 line more often than not.

[yogg]

WTA Prague - Collins D.R. v Brady J.

I believe Danielle is a much better player than Jennifer although the clay will probably bring them a bit closer but given that Brady hasn't played for six weeks (seven weeks on clay) I see Collins taking this in straight sets @2.60 with Unibet.

good luck all

nb: I've now found out that Jennifer played a Fed Cup doubles match last week, sorry guys.

Edited April 29, 2019 by yogg
something i missed.

[WinningTipster]

1 pick for tomorrow match:

WTO MOROCCO RABAT MERTENS-FLIPKENS 2:0 SETS @ 1.63 pinnacle
Mertens is a defending champion in this tournament and she is in a good form this year. Flipkens prefers fast surfaces. Mertens is much more consistent from the baseline and has better game for clay.

[four-leaf]

Parlay at 6.61 with betsson

Alex de Minaur to beat (-1.5 games) Joao Domingues at 1.89

Alex comes back after some time off court with I plan here I hope.

Brydan Klein to beat (+4.5 games) Alexander Ritschard at 1.83

I agree with @CzechPunter here about Brydan and his serve and the surface that should allow him to get some easy service holds. Enough to cover 4.5 at least.

Sandro Ehrat to beat (-1.5 games) Martin Cuevas at 1.91

Martin the younger brother of the mutch better player Pablo Cuevas is up again. Let's see what Martin is up to this time. Saw Sandro playing in Tallahassee last friday and boy did he do great or did he do great. He pushed Tennys Sandgren with his first serve like a bat out of hell. Gonna be something quite difficult for Martin to break here and I suspect Martins serve will be asked some questions by Sandro since it isn't exactly built upon big first serves. Sandros serve did bite in Tallahassee and I don't think Savannahs surface is mutch different, pretty mutch the same acctually as far as I know.

[four-leaf]

Does anyone know what's happening in Estoril with the match Joao Domingues/Alex de Minaur? It's been taken away both from unibet and betsson but it says it's supposed to start at 17.50.

[Tenez]

Marterer to beat Londero 2.47

Marterer‘s price has drifted heavily due to his retirement in Francaville on Friday I guess. I didn’t see that match but I could imagine he didn’t give his best effort with bigger rewards waiting this week in Munich. The fact that he played doubles today shows that whatever injury he might carry it can’t be of serious nature. Admittedly Maxi has not had the best year so far but he made the semis in Munich last time and is accustomed to the conditions. Londero has finally made it to the ATP Tour after some excellent showings in his home country but I have my doubts whether he can replicate that level outside of Argentina. This matchup should be priced closer to even money.

 

[four-leaf]

16 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Does anyone know what's happening in Estoril with the match Joao Domingues/Alex de Minaur? It's been taken away both from unibet and betsson but it says it's supposed to start at 17.50.

The match was about to start so that's why the bookies had it removed 

[CzechPunter]

Yeah, Klein breaks in the very first game and then loses the set 6-1 . Happens. Edit: Injured apparently, but I don't see him retiring. Edit 2: Retired, bets voided.

[four-leaf]

Enrico Dalla Valle to beat Ricardo Ojeda Lara at 2.04 with betsson

Italian Enrico Dalla Valle toyed with his italian compatriot Julian Ocleppo yesterday and won deservedly by 6-2 6-2.

Enrico could very likely toy again with the opposition tomorrow. The risk is surpassing when he faces spaniard Ricardo Ojeda Lara. Ricardo is only favourite by name and ranking here. Not by the fact that he's got next to none in form.

Ricardo is a player who for a few months were ranked top 200 around october 2017 till july 2018. He's a player who won a clay challenger title in 2017 and reached a semi in another clay challenger the week after and he reached the quarters of Pune 2018.

These two also met last season in july when all form had started to wear off Ricardo and Enrico won 6-7 6-1 6-3. All points Ricardo has had to defend this season and last season he couldn't defend. He's like up as a sun and down like a pancake. 

However Enrico is playing really solid right now and I highly doubt Ricardo to have any answer to the game the Enrico is playing right now.

Enrico is ranked 438, not a high ranking and his career high is 430 in february this year but you shouldn't stare your eyes blind on a ranking when a player like Enrico in this case is playing so well. Climbing on the ranking can go fast if you make a few good results. If you've seen Enrico playing in the qualies early monday you know he's got good chances of winning in round 1 of Ostrava maindraw.

[CzechPunter]

Taylor Fritz to beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at 2.09 with Pinnacle

Opelka was able to defeat Sousa in the conditions yesterday, Fritz could very well do the same against Fokina today. Plenty has been said about how he isn't able to play on clay, but his recent results show that he came to Europe prepared this time around. Don't see a reason for Fokina being the favorite here, I'd have the odds the other way around at the very least.

[opole]

Some bets i like tomorrow & i have taken

Ostrava Challenger

David Poljak @4.70 188bet 4/10

I probably wouldn't bet Poljak in any other case but here i have to try it at least. He's from Ostrava so this is basically his Grand Slam final each year, playing in his home town in front of his fans and friends. Even better to bet on him against a guy like Vavassori who is - to be honest - one of the worst players i have seen playing on that level regulary as he's playing Challengers most of the time. He has a big serve, i give him that, but from the baseline he's pretty much an error machine with weak consistency. I think if Poljak has solid day he can make it close.

Seoul Challenger

Y.-S. Kim/H.-C. Lim @9.50 Betfair 2/10

Just a try. Kim/Lim had few solid results in 2018 on Challenger level: 46 63 2-10 vs. Hsieh/Rungkat; 67 36 vs. Wu/Zhang; 46 46 vs. Roelofse/Smith. Those teams are pretty solid Challenger level guys. Furthermore we have two Korean teams here so might be a bit less competitive atmosphere, more friendly. Kim/Lim +30 matches together, Chung/Lee on the other side have played one match together in the past and both are not well known for taking doubles too seriously in the past (both not ranked inside Top 400).

Savannah Challenger

Cannon Kingsley @3.28 Pinnacle 4/10

I don't rate Johannes Haerteis. I know him very well as i followed his career in detail, especially at younger age and i think he reached his maximum already. Don't think he can go further on Challenger level. This is a good matchup for Kingsley who is one of the better prospects in the US. He's a Top 10 Junior right now and showed some decent stuff on the higher level recently, winning sets vs solid clay court player Velotti and Ritschard + had close match with Schnur in New York earlier this year. I would make this a pick em match.

[four-leaf]

Nobody seems to want to post anything from Estoril and Munich today or Rabat and Prag but we still have Danielle Collins to wait for at least but there's a bit to few posts today for my liking here about the main tournaments this week.

[four-leaf]

Well I don't see any coming back from Enrico Dalla Valle in first set as he's a double break down. He'll probably lose the match in straight sets two since he's playing quite awful and Ricardo Ojeda doesn't have to do mutch to win the points.

[four-leaf]

John Millman to beat Bernard Tomic at 1.41 with Unibet

Bernard still isn't finding his game on clay like he can on grass or hardcourt where he thrives. He's gonna be in trouble in most of the rallies here. John showed that he acctually can do some good stuff on clay last season when he reached his first ATP final in Budapest losing in straight sets after a rain delayed semifinal. Anyway he lost those points this week and dropped a few spots on the ranking. Now he's aiming to get back to something around top 50 again with a win here ofcourse and Bernard should be the ideal opponent to get a first win in Estoril.

[i1_principe]

L.Mayer to beat Lajovic at 2.31 with Pinnacle 

I do not see Lajovic as a favorite here. Ok, he had a great week in Monte Carlo, but he's quite inconsistent. Meyer played a strong match against Nadal in Barcelona and if he was more confident in himself he would win. Both players met earlier this season in Argentina and Mayer won with 2-0 sets. I think this is a 50-50 game and the odds are too good for Mayer.

Edited April 30, 2019 by i1_principe

[opole]

ATP Munich Doubles

D. Molchanov/I. Zelenay vs. M. Cecchinato/A. Seppi @3.01 Pinnacle 3/10

In my opinion this matchup is all about motivation. IF Cecchinato and Seppi are motivated and will show up in solid condition they should defeat Molchanov and Zelenay. If not it's probably 60/40 for them. I'll risk it.

[CzechPunter]

5pts Jiri Lehecka to beat Jurgen Zopp at 6.50 with Bet365

Just five points on this one, but I think it's worth a shot at 6.50. Poljak has already prevailed today at nice odds and I wouldn't be shocked if Lehecka does the same. The guy is the biggest talent the Czech tennis has in his age category - that's not saying much, of course, but he proved that he can play decent tennis when he took a set off Haase in the Davis Cup. That was on a hard court, but, incidentally, it was in the same city, Ostrava, so good memories. Zopp has done relatively little so far in this season and he's not going anywhere anymore by the looks of things. Lehecka should be like 3.75 or something - and the handicaps look quite playable as well.

[i1_principe]

Davidovich Fokina to beat Chardy at 2.34 with Pinnacle

I'm really impressed with the way Fokina played against Fritz yesterday, he has already won 3 games in Estoril and I expect that his winning run will continue. Chardy is not in good shape, won only 3 of his last 11 games, he lost in the first round of the last two clay tournaments.

[Grass Cash]

@four-leaf whats the story with Sandro Ehrat.. He just double bageled Cuevas, and now he's a huge underdog vs Tommy Paul.. I don't think Paul can beat him.. whats your guys opinion?

[Grass Cash]

will be pretty hard for me to bet Ehrat to start the day cuz i have no videos on him .. i just seen he looks real competitive but this match is not until mid day tomorrow anways .. so no worries 

[Blackroses]

Opole please post more. Your takes are so informative and i love reading them.

Any leans for tomorrow?

I feel like Monfils will have no problem with Opelka. He's got a nice return on clay and he can counter these servebots like Opelka. His ability at the baseline is way higher than Opelka's especially backhand to backhand. No comparison.

Also feeling like Garin can take care of Schwartzman. Feel like Diego needs faster courts to thrive and this is exactly the type of court that Garin enjoys.

13 hours ago, opole said:

ATP Munich Doubles

D. Molchanov/I. Zelenay vs. M. Cecchinato/A. Seppi @3.01 Pinnacle 3/10

In my opinion this matchup is all about motivation. IF Cecchinato and Seppi are motivated and will show up in solid condition they should defeat Molchanov and Zelenay. If not it's probably 60/40 for them. I'll risk it.

 

[Grass Cash]

@Blackroses you should post more also. Opole is doing a fine job here, and he's going to post when he can to help out. I suggest you give more opinions, and tell us what your best play is also if you like. Garin looks good to me by the way.. I'm a sucker for betting on him tho. Schwartzman doesn't seem to have it together yet.. I'm not sold with him. 

Opelka has won alot of matches this year including last match as an underdog, and an Atp 250 tournmanent in New York. He hits massive shots off both forehand and backhand wings.. Monfils is coming off an injury, and will be happy just to be playing tennis again.. In my opinion , this is not a good spot to expect Monfils to just come back to perfect form all of a sudden. Also this is his first match on clay for the entire year.. So I know that logic is sound, but doesn't mean I'm right.. gl 

Edited May 1, 2019 by money44

[Blackroses]

@money44 I'm going to try and post more. Mainly for tomorrow I like Monfils but I'm afraid so does everyone.

Almost too obvious that he should win. I feel like with his ridiculous wingspan, he's going to get more than a few shots at breaking Opelka. Then when that ball gets into play, Monfils has the advantage almost automatically especially if he starts the rally to Opelka's BH. Monfils' style is to force his opponent into making the error and if he can wait out G. Simon, he can wait out Opelka. I mean he can play aggresively when he needs or wants but usually on clay, he'll grind with the best of them. Assuming he's healthy and motivated of course.

When Monfils is serving, Opelka will not have the looks that Monfils will get IMO. 

For Garin I feel like it's almost even from the baseline except his serve gives him a few easier points than Diego's will. At + money I'll take a 50/50 matchup. 

[Grass Cash]

There is 5 ATP players ranked from Brazil between 600-700, and not a single player ranked behind them .. This is either a glitch in the Atp rankings page or an incredibly strange phenomenon. 

[Grass Cash]

I'd hate to talk to you out of Monfils if he wins, but you can probably find something better, and also you are laying some sizable juice with that bet.. The best way to make money even though I have not done it myself yet in the long run.. Make the Sportsbook pay you juice everytime you bet instead of charging us.  Because alot of the time.. Nobody knows who the heck is going to win the matches, and do you really want to go up against Opelka. He's a dangerous player.. Just doesn't seem sharp to me.. I'd like to hear some more of your thoughts tho on a different match. 

Edited May 1, 2019 by money44