Tennis Tips - April 29 - May 5

[Blackroses]

@money44 You are right about the value and it not being sharp. I didn't bet it yet and I appreciate the warning. I might heed you on it. Still looking at the other matchups.

[Grass Cash]

Garin Analysis seems sound BlackRoses but: The issue I have with Garin is he can't be trusted firstly but after that.. I thought he was going to destroy Baena in Barcelona, and the he gets drug in 2 sets.. Now, next match all of a sudden Maden takes six games off him, and I don't rate Maden as a good player in this moment at all. Garin is not a mentally strong player at all.. Schwartzman is on the other hand.. If Diego wants to win this match and is healthy enough to do so.. He will win the match.. pretty simple as that to me.. Because all that great serving from Christian Garin will probably not be there tomorrow in Munich.. Just as it probably wasn't there in Barcelona vs Baena. 

[four-leaf]

6 hours ago, money44 said:

will be pretty hard for me to bet Ehrat to start the day cuz i have no videos on him .. i just seen he looks real competitive but this match is not until mid day tomorrow anways .. so no worries 

No he'll lose to Tommy Paul most likely but probably in a competitive manner. He's got a huge first serve Sandro.

[four-leaf]

Sandro Ehrat to beat Tommy Paul in first set at 2.70 with betsson

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Tommy comes up here ragged and tired having played two straight finals and he didn't cope with the last one either when he came up short in a 6-2 6-2 loss to Emilio Gomez. Taking Sandro in first set since it's not unlikely to see Tommy retire.

[four-leaf]

Sandro Ehrat to beat Tommy Paul at 3.50 with Unibet

Ah what the heck! Unibet pays out if first set is completed and if someone retires it's Tommy and if he doesn't he'll have a hard time against that Sandro first serve so he'll get a ride he wont forget too soon.

[TennisProfit]

Lottner @1,84 x 6u

Really like this odds. Pera did not play good last match and had a lot of work to do beating Haas. Lottner looks like a very good bet imo and the odds are good value imo..

[four-leaf]

John Millman to beat (-3.5) Joao Domingues at 2.10 with Pinnacle

John comes into this match off the back of a 6-3 6-0 win. He beat his compatriot Bernard Tomic that easily but it probably wont get easier beating Joao who himself had a pretty good effort beating Alex de Minaur 2 sets to 1. Alex did everything he could to get back into the match and fought valiantly in the second set but once he dropped serve in third it was over. For this match I don't think John is going to walk in into the same trap as Alex did. Alex had less match practice and John has lots of match practice lately so I don't think we'll see an upset in this one for Joao again. 

[Grass Cash]

GL leaf

Edited May 1, 2019 by money44

[CzechPunter]

@TennisProfit Please try to always mention the actual bookie that you're betting with .

[TennisProfit]

1 minute ago, CzechPunter said:

@TennisProfit Please try to always mention the actual bookie that you're betting with .

Unibet

[four-leaf]

7 hours ago, Blackroses said:

@money44 I'm going to try and post more. Mainly for tomorrow I like Monfils but I'm afraid so does everyone.

Almost too obvious that he should win. I feel like with his ridiculous wingspan, he's going to get more than a few shots at breaking Opelka. Then when that ball gets into play, Monfils has the advantage almost automatically especially if he starts the rally to Opelka's BH. Monfils' style is to force his opponent into making the error and if he can wait out G. Simon, he can wait out Opelka. I mean he can play aggresively when he needs or wants but usually on clay, he'll grind with the best of them. Assuming he's healthy and motivated of course.

When Monfils is serving, Opelka will not have the looks that Monfils will get IMO. 

For Garin I feel like it's almost even from the baseline except his serve gives him a few easier points than Diego's will. At + money I'll take a 50/50 matchup. 

You're underestimating Reilly and it sounds like wishful thinking about Gaels abilities here. Sure if he's on song and all he can do some good returns but even on clay it's not gonna be an easy task getting that ball into play when those big serves are coming his way.

[four-leaf]

Reilly Opelka to beat Gael Monfils at 2.50 with Unibet

Reilly isn't as bad on clay as you'd like think and Gael is coming back here from an injury that prevented him from getting some mutch needed matchpractice on clay ahead of the masters in Madrid and Rome. To get this bet correct I'll have to rely on Reilly to fire his big first serves in consistently and that Gael doesn't have his best serving day. And chances are that Gael isn't going to have that great serving day with this being his first match since march and first on clay since last season when he played in Roland Garros. And at the same time it's a big chance that Reilly will get his first serves in consistently and with that I give him a good chance in this matchup under current circumstances.

[four-leaf]

And one more thing. Gael has no record in Estoril at all in his career which further demolishes the thoughts of Gael being able to outreturn Reilly today. Gael is likely just in Estoril for the matchpractice ahead of Madrid.

[four-leaf]

One last thing. Wrong of me to say he has'nt played on clay since Roland Garros because Hamburg in july was the last time he did it.

[four-leaf]

Reilly Opelka at 2.75 now with Unibet mutch better

[CzechPunter]

Adrian Mannarino to beat Maxime Janvier at 2.01 with Pinnacle

A battle of generations obviously and I do get where the odds are coming from, but I think that Mannarino deserves a bit more respect than he's getting honestly. He isn't having a tremendous year, but he's had to face some tough draws that included Isner, Nishikori, and Medvedev. The fact that he crushed Moroni in the first round suggests that he's up to the task and I like his chances at odds against.

[darko08]

opinions on Klizan to beat Cecchinato at 2.10? Klizan feels good here and he has already 1 win here (Gulbis in 2 sets). Cecchinato is not in his best physically and this will be his first match here

Edited May 1, 2019 by darko08

[four-leaf]

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to beat (-1.5 sets) Jeremy Chardy at 3.60 with Unibet

I'm gonna try this longshot to get some back from losing on John Millman and Reilly Opelka.

[four-leaf]

Ok that worked well ADF just made light work of Jeremy 

 

[Grass Cash]

I've poisoned the chat room long enough here with my garbage opinions.  I'll be taking a year absence at the minimum when maybe things are going better.. Win lots of money on your bets !

[Blackroses]

Monfils and Garin! Let's see if I can make it to 3-0.

I'm going with Nishioka for my next bet. He really seems to be undervalued on clay. I don't know why the books have this perception of him lately. He's gritty and can push people on clay. I've watched a lot of his matches. He handled McDonald rather easily so I don't see any issues with fatigue. He played Schwartz and Sonego really well, taking sets from both of them on the dirt. I like his odds at +157. But I'm going to play a little more conservative and take him at +1.5 sets at -142. I definitely think he can win this match and I may go with the +147 too but right now, just +1.5 sets. 

Anyone else liking him?

[four-leaf]

@Blackroses well I liked Alejandro Davidovich yesterday, he saved my day. Now I don't know about Yoshihito but it's a late match so I might just wait for that one. ADF - Jeremy Chardy didn't start until 9pm last night so it might be worth waiting for results from other matches to make an opinion out of the last match on the day.

[four-leaf]

Pablo Cuevas to beat (-4.5) Filippo Baldi at 2.00 with bet365

What a dream draw for Pablo Cuevas... He reaches the quarter easily most likely. Filippo Baldi isn't anything that scares exactly. Filippo lost to Joao Domingues 6-2 6-4 in the qualifinal and doesn't stand a chance in this match. Both are lucky losers but only Pablo is the one with the better game. Pablo will take care of Filippo by 5 games minimum.

[four-leaf]

Rebecca Peterson to beat Ajla Tomljanovic at 2.30 with Unibet

Should be worth going against the odds in this one. Rebecca trails Ajla by 3 losses to 1 win in this matchup but they've never met on clay where Rebecca is at her best and I think that might be decisive in this one.

[aphro]

 

Rebecca Peterson to beat Ajla Tomljanovic at 2.30 with Unibet

Should be worth going against the odds in this one. Rebecca trails Ajla by 3 losses to 1 win in this matchup but they've never met on clay where Rebecca is at her best and I think that might be decisive in this one.

I saw this match on my value radar, but i prefer ATP competitions.

[four-leaf]

Denis Kudla to beat Matteo Berrettini at 3.75 with Unibet

Not only did Denis defeat Kyle Edmund in first round, he only lost 5 points on his first serve. With a such performance it's ofcourse you stand a good chance of winning a match. Matteo looks drained from last week and really he doesn't need to go far in Munich. Matteo only lost 6 points himself on his first serve in round 1 but that was in a defeat of Denis Istomin. It doesn't impress me as mutch as Denis performance beating Kyle Edmund. Kyle maybe wasn't at his best but still it's a good win. I'm for the upset here, gonna be fun if Denis wins this on clay when his most prefered surface is hard or grass. Denis also owns a 3-1 record in the matchup of this one.

[four-leaf]

Taro Daniel to beat (+4.5) Guido Pella at 2.00 with Unibet

Going for Taro here. He looked solid enough in first round to stick around for a while in this match. They have met once before and it was on clay in Umag last seasono and Taro won first set 6-1 that time and didn't lose the match by more then 1 game. No reason that he shouldn't be able to stick around here also. He covered this handicap when he met Gilles Simon in Marrakech 2019 but unfortunately the line was 3.5 on Taro back then and I was on Taro hcp and he lost by 6-4 6-4 but this time I'll be on Taro again with a little higher hcp line.

[CzechPunter]

@money44 No need for such a reaction imo, your insights are certainly valuable and welcome, but your call obviously.

[four-leaf]

Johanna Konta to beat Su-Wei Hsieh at 1.71 with Unibet

Johanna owns Su-Wei and could probably keep on doing it. She's not top 10 anymore but still good enough for some nice performances here and there. WTA Rabat is not a tournament Johanna is familiar with. She's never played there before after it moved from Fes. Su-Wei reached the semifinal last season in Rabat but only because she had the opportunity to face three players outside of top 100 and she lost the semi by 6-0 6-2 to Elise Mertens.

It's 4-2 for Johanna in this matchup and she's won three straight by commanding numbers like 6-0 and 6-2. I see quite a heavy chance that it could happen something like it again but to be safe I'll only pick her as a winner.

[four-leaf]

Ysaline Bonaventure/Alison Van Uytvanck over 20.5 at 1.85 with Unibet

Ysalina has fought for 8 hours on court but it doesn't mean she's tired. It just gives her further motivation to keep on fighting and fight I belive she will and it could very well be enough to send this line over the total of 20 games.