Serie A & B Predictions > Apr 2nd - 8th

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

It's a double header week for our Serie A and B punters this round. Full schedule of matches in midweek followed by a full complement of games on the weekend. We have all the odds and ratings listed above, excluding the weekend Serie B games but they'll be posted when available, so check them out and post your tips below! 

[malabgd]

AC Milan v Udinese Calcio

AC Milan: Conti (8/0 d), Bonaventura (8/3 m)

Udinese Calcio: Larsen (28/1 d, suspended), Sandro (4/0 m, suspended), Nuytinck (24/1 d), Barak (8/0 m), D'Alessandro (16/0 m)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding Serie A

69% of Empoli’s matches had over 2.5 goals scored in Serie A.
Napoli have been undefeated in their last 5 away matches in Serie A.
66% of AS Roma’s matches had over 2.5 goals scored in Serie A.
Parma have conceded 2 goals or more in each of their last 4 away matches in Serie A.
Lazio have scored in each of their last 12 matches in Serie A.

You can find interesting 72 Football Betting Streaks for 03.04.2019 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-03-04-2019-13941

[Hitch]

Roma vs. Fiorentina

Both teams head into this match not in the best of form; Roma have 1 win and 4 losses in their last five matches in all competitions and Fiorentina have 3 draws and 2 losses in their last five matches.

In terms of goals, this is where things get interesting:

• All 9 out of Roma's last 9 consecutive matches at home in Serie A have seen both teams score and 8 of them were Over 2.5.
• Roma have scored in 19 out of their 21 home matches in all competitions this season.
• Roma have scored in their last 16 consecutive matches in all competitions since a 1-0 against Juventus in December.
• 12 out of Roma's 14 home matches in Serie A this season saw BTTS. 
• Fiorentina's last 6 consecutive away matches in Serie A this season have seen BTTS, and 5 of them were Over 2.5. 
• Fiorentina have scored in 12 out of their 16 away matches and 12 out of their last 13 matches overall in all competitions this season.
• 10 out of Fiorentina's 15 away matches this season have seen BTTS.

Also, in terms of Expected Goals and Goals Against:

• Roma have the highest xG at home in the league so far this season.
• Roma have the worst xGA at home in the top 9, with only 7 teams in the league with a worse xGA at home than them.
• Fiorentina have the 6th best xG away from home in the league so far. 
• (Fiorentina have the 6th best xGA away from home so far.)

In terms of injuries and suspensions, Fiorentina's joint top scorer Chiesa and midfielder Fernandes are out, but they aren't reliant on him to score goals. As for Roma, top scorer El Shaarawy is also out but they still have Kolarov and Dzeko who are more than capable of scoring. Defensively, Roma will be without both Manolas and Florenzi, which makes it less likely for them to keep a clean sheet here today against a side that has scored in 12 of their last 13 matches. 

Besides the fact that Roma will be looking to avenge Fiorentina's 7-1 win over them in the Coppa Italia last January, they will push forward to try and get all 3 points here as they chase a champions league spot, and Fiorentina's Stefano Pioli is under pressure after a string of bad results so he'll also be looking to get something positive out of this match as well.

BTTS @ 1.66 with Betfair - 8 units

Edited April 3, 2019 by Hitch
typo

[vicsuna]

Frosinone vs Parma: Frosinone to win

1. Gervinho is out for Parma. Gervinho is Parma's top goalscorer with 10 goals in Serie A and has 2 assists, so he has directly contributed to +38% out of all 31 Parma goals in Serie A this season. Parma's most experienced defender Bruno Alves is also out for the game vs Frosinone. 
2. Frosinone are the only team without a home win in Serie A this season. Frosinone had 6 home wins in 2015/16 season when they again got relegated after one season in the top tier Italian league. 2 of those home wins were vs the other 2 teams that qualified with Frosinone from Serie B. Frosinone missed the chance to win at home vs Empoli as they were leading 3:2 till 79th minute back in October but game ended 3:3. I think they will take full advantage of Parma's weakened squad. It is also worth noting that the probability for a home win for Frosinone till end of season is highest vs Parma (44%), according to fivethirtyeight. 
3. Frosinone had 8 shots on target and 13 shots off target vs SPAL over the weekend. They were unlucky not to get at least 1 point. To be fair they had 3 respectable performances in last 3 home games - 3 narrow losses with 1 goal difference vs SPAL (0:1), vs Torino(1:2), vs Roma (2:3). 
4. Parma have nothing to fight for as their chances for relegation are less than 2%, according to fivethirtyeight. Frosinone still have some mathematical chance for survival and their remaining games are winnable. They just need to start winning. I suspect they will go all in in this game. 

 

Edited April 3, 2019 by vicsuna

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding Serie A

Sassuolo have failed to win in their last 8 matches in Serie A.
Chievo have failed to win in their last 10 matches in Serie A.
Atalanta conceded at least 1 goal in each of their last 6 home matches in Serie A.
Bologna have scored in each of their last 6 away matches in Serie A.

You can find interesting 45 Football Betting Streaks for 04.04.2019 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-04-04-2019-13951

[vicsuna]

Frosinone won in the craziest way after penalty that was reviewed by VAR for almost 10 minutes and finally a goal in 103rd minute. Anyway, the Sassuolo vs Chievo game looks like a possible draw and Atalanta vs Bologna like goal/goal from the last stats presented by @Magic0024. What do you think?

[Hitch]

Definitely agree, @vicsuna. This game has goals written all over it, and the prices exhibit that, but I would've expected a shorter price for BTTS than 1.8. 

Atalanta vs. Bologna

Each side here is fighting for something; Atalanta for a CL spot and Bologna are fighting to avoid relegation. Both come into this match in good form with Atalanta winning 3 of their 4 and drawing 1, whereas Bologna have won their last 3, including an impressive 2-3 away win at Torino, especially considering the fact that only 4 teams have conceded fewer goals at home than Torino. 

In terms of stats:

• Atalanta have kept just 6 clean sheets out of 29 matches played so far this season and 4 out of 13 at home in Serie A.
• BTTS was seen in each of Atalanta's last 6 home matches in Serie A.
• Atalanta have failed to score just 6 times out of 29 matches in Serie A, and only once in the last 21 matches.
• Bologna have kept just 7 clean sheets out of 29 matches played so far this season and 3 out of 15 away from home in Serie A.
• BTTS was seen in 5 out of Bologna's last 6 away matches.
• Bologna have failed to score in 10 of their 29 matches in Serie A, but have scored in 9 out of their 11, and have scored in 4 out of 5 matches since manager Mihajlovic took over - only failing to score against Juventus. 

When looking at expected goals and goals against overall this season:

• Atalanta are ranked 7th in xG but also rank 4th best in xGA at home.
• Bologna are ranked 9th in xG and 12th in xGA away from home. 

Given the stats above and the fact that both sides are fighting for a CL spot and to avoid relegation, respectively, I think there's some value here in these odds for BTTS, even if the price dropped since yesterday. 

BTTS @ 1.8 with Betfair - 7 Units

Edited April 4, 2019 by Hitch
typo

[StevieDay1983]

Inter Milan vs Atalanta

Oh, Atalanta, my old foe. We meet again. I know, I promised myself I wouldn't go near an Atalanta game again after their treatment of me last season but, alas, I'm back for more punishment. In this game, Inter Milan are their opposition in a 5pm kick-off at the San Siro this Sunday afternoon.

Inter Milan are in 3rd place and there is a universe of difference between Luciano Spalletti's side and league leaders Juventus. The gap between the two teams is 25 points and it means Inter are almost closer to the relegation zone than they are to the team at the top of the table. It's always realistically been about qualifying for the Champions League for Inter so winning this will go a long way to achieving that. Inter have only won 2 of their last 5 home league games so that's a potential cause for concern.

Atalanta are just behind Inter in 5th place and just 1 point off the pace of the Champions League qualification spots. Defeat here could seriously de-stabilise those hopes of breaking into the top four but a win would really put the cat amongst the pigeons. Gian Piero Gasperini's men are undefeated in their last 5 league games having won 4 of those matches.

I can see why Inter are priced as they are. Atalanta's current form is impressive. Atalanta also boast the fourth best away record in the division having won their last two games on the road in the league. I just think this game will end up resulting in a home win and Inter will move a step closer to Champions League football next season.

Inter Milan to Win @ 2.12 with MarathonBet

Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.85 with Unibet

@Pep004, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @four-leaf, @allthethings, @betcatalog, @sajtion, @the bastardian, @chris666, @thegeneral55, @Mindfulness, @stephen m, @teddybear3011, @jazzman02, @Bayern, @Xcout, @Valkovets, @MangoTheThird, @DonPaulo, @Franger83, @fhuefdsa, @dinero, @laprikon, @cluelessG, @Skenderbeg, @Gabosbet, @thinkpink63, @VYA, @balkan-pro, @i1_principe, and @scommetix, what bets are you guys lining up for this weekend?

[Hitch]

Juventus vs. AC Milan

Juventus head into this match against AC Milan with a huge 18-point lead over second place Napoli and an incredible 29-point lead over AC Milan, indicative of the gulf in class between the two sides. 

Juventus are a team which does not seem to lack any motivation winning games even if they've pretty much won the league already and will want to maintain momentum heading into their first leg CL match away at Ajax on Wednesday.

AC Milan had improved of late but now find themselves in a bad run of form having picked up just one point from their last three matches, including 3-2 loss vs Inter, a match in which Milan were clearly second-best, and a 1-0 loss to Sampdoria in their last away match. And with Atalanta, Roma, Lazio, and Torino all within four points away from Milan, the pressure is on Gattuso to try to bring the team back to the CL.

I think the odds here are incredibly generous for a Juventus win here, seeing as:

• Allegri's Juventus have an incredibly strong home record, having won 13 out 15 (86.67%) home matches in Serie A this season, and drawing the other two. If we include last season as well, then we can see that they have 29 out of 34 wins (85.3%), with just 1 loss.
• Under Allegri, Juventus have won 20 out of 23 (87%) against the top 6 in Serie A.
• Milan don't have the best record against the top sides in Serie A this season, having lost to Inter home and away, and lost to Juventus, and picked up 1 point against Napoli (at home) over two legs.
• Milan have an atrocious record against Juventus, having lost the last 7 consecutive matches against them by a goal margin of 16 to 3, and lost the last 11 out of 12.

The fact that Ronaldo won't be playing is possibly a big factor in why the bookies are giving Juventus just a ~55% probability of winning this match, I imagine, especially when they had given them much shorter odds when they played Inter, Roma, and Lazio at home, so I don't see any reason why I shouldn't back them at these current odds.

Juventus to win @ 1.81 with Betfair - 8 units

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding Serie A

Juventus have won 87% of their matches in Serie A.
Juventus have scored in 100% of their home matches in Serie A.
AC Milan have scored in 71% of their away matches in Serie A.

You can find interesting 134 Football Betting Streaks for 06.04.2019 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-06-04-2019-13957

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding Serie A

72% of Udinese’s points have been earned at home in Serie A.
Fiorentina have failed to win in their last 6 home matches in Serie A.
70% of Empoli’s matches had over 2.5 goals scored in Serie A.
Cagliari conceded at least 1 goal in each of their last 6 home matches in Serie A.

You can find interesting 92 Football Betting Streaks for 07.04.2019 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-07-04-2019-13974

[betcatalog]

Inter Milan - Atalanta stands out. This is because the two "wretches" are targeting the first four, with Inter to be in it. With what we have seen of both of these last time, it is a good idea to score both teams
INTER MILANO vs ATALANTA BERGAMASCA CALCIO @@ Both team to score, odds 1.65

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding Serie A

Chievo have failed to win in their last 11 matches in Serie A.
Bologna conceded at least 1 goal in 71% of their home matches in Serie A.
Chievo have scored 33% of their goals after the 75th minute in Serie A.

You can find interesting 35 Football Betting Streaks for 08.04.2019 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-08-04-2019-13986