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laprikon

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About laprikon

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  1. You often see the odds proportional calculation: odds = payout rate / (implied) probability --> (implied) probability = payout rate / odds. This leads to equal bookmaker margins (= (1 / payout rate) - 1) and different risk buffers (= 1 / odds - (implied) probability) for all outcomes. An example: odds 1.2 / 5.0 --> payout rate = 1.2 * 5.0 / (1.2 + 5.0) = 6 / 6.2 = 0.96774 --> (implied) probabilities 0.80645 / 0.19355 --> expected values (= probability * odds) 0.96774 / 0.96774 --> margins 0.03333 / 0.03333 & risk buffers 0.02688 / 0.00645. Impact of an 2% probability error: A) +2% / -2% --> expected values: 0.99174 / 0.86774 B) -2% / +2% --> expected values: 0.94374 / 1.06774 --> Tipsters who constantly finds this kind of error would make a nice profit 6.774%. I never liked this because i don't understand why the bookmaker would use that much higher / lower risk buffers for smaller / bigger odds. Of course he'll get much more wagers on lower odds, but since odds are being calculated with the inverse of probability, the potential damage of a faulty probability assumption corresponds with the odds. Alternatively the equal risk buffer method: odds = 1 / (probability + (whole market margin / number of outcomes)) --> probability = (1 / odds) - (whole market margin / number of outcomes). This leads to different bookmaker margins and equal risk buffers for every outcome. In the example: odds 1.2 / 5.0 --> whole market margin = (1 / 0.96774) - 1 = 0.03333 --> (implied) probabilities 0.81667 / 0.18333 --> expected values (= probability * odds) 0.98 / 0.91667 --> margins 0.02 / 0.08333 --> risk buffers 0.01667 / 0.01667. Impact of an 2% probability error: A) +2% / -2% --> expected values: 1.00400 / 0.81667 B) -2% / +2% --> expected values: 0.95600 / 1.01667 --> Even a tipster who finds such error repeatedly won't get rich. So, if i would be a bookmaker, i wouldn't use the odds proportional calculation but the equal risk buffer method. Statistics suggests that bookmakers use rather the latter. Betting on all pinnacle sports closing odds leads to smaller losses with lower odds and far greater losses with bigger odds. Even laws of market economy suggests that the larger the turnover (-> lower odds vs higher odds) the smaller the margin. Practical use: Over the years i saw a few betting colleagues mourning that although they beat the pinnacle sports closing line by 5% or more they still were in the reds and how unlucky they felt. For me the reason wasn't a lack of luck but the explanation above. Beating a @6+ pinnacle sports closing line even by 5% just equals a probability difference < 0.8% and that's just not enough even for low margins / risk buffers pinnacle sports.
  2. Today MLB tips: Detroit Tigers 2.25 Wasington Nationals 1.77 St.Louis Cardinals 2.15 Minnesota Twins 2.04 Chicago White Sox 2.1 Los Angeles Angels 2.04 Good luck!
  3. https://twitter.com/asian_bet

  4. Valencia vs Getafe Copa del Rey Tuesday, 29 January 2019 Kick-off at 20:30 UK/ 21:30 CET Venue: Estadio de Mestalla (Valencia). In my opinion away team will not lose. My recommended bet of this fixture is both teams to score priced at 5/4 (2.25) odd. @StevieDay1983 Any ideas?
  5. Very good betting advice. Probaly i will bet on home team wuth AH +0.25. Good luck!
  6. Anderlecht vs Eupen Belgium- First Division A. Date: Sunday, 27th January 2019.Kick-Off at 17:00 UK/ 18:00 CET Venue: Constant Vanden Stock Stadium (Anderlecht). Anderlecht have been in unstable form recently and they lost 5 out of the last 7 league games. On the other hand, AS Eupen grabbed back-to-back wins of late. So Anderlecht should not earn our favour. You can bet on Away team with AH(+1). Good luck!
  7. Feyenoord vs Ajax Netherlands – Eredivisie Date: Sunday, 27th January 2019 Kick-off at 13.30 UK/ 14.30 CET Venue: De Kuip (Rotterdam). In my opinion probably draw. You can bet on Home team with AH. Good luck!
  8. Hi folks! My question is about trading. How calculate market entry coefficient if i know opening odds and closing odds is there any formula? Thanks
  9. Variables P(Aw) = Probability of team A winning P(d) = Probability of draw P(Bw) = Probability of team B winning P(A|1) = Probability of Team A winning by exactly 1 goal = 0.191856-0.30565416*x+1.42165*x^2-1.21885522*x^3, where x=P(Aw)P(A|2) = Probability of Team A winning by exactly 2 goals = 0.13482-0.553848*x+1.71645*x^2-1.08417508*x^3, where x=P(Aw)TO(A|X) = True decimal odds of team A with handicap X Notes and Sources [1] To find true odds of Team B, use the following equation: 1-TO(A|X). https://dropmefiles.com/qXmY2 You can use this spreadsheet