Hitch

Tottenham vs. Everton Against all odds, Tottenham find themselves heading to a CL final for the first time ever. I think the market slightly overreacted to their win here though. The players will be emotionally and physically drained from Wednesday's match, and they're now up against an in-form Everton side, and will have to play without both Son and Kane among others. I think Everton have a pretty decent chance of getting something from this match. Lay Tottenham @ 2.22 with Betfair - 4 Units

Burnley vs. Arsenal I think the prices are way off here. We all know Arsenal's away form has been extremely poor this season (2 away wins in their last 14, including 7 losses), and they just played a tiring away match in Valencia just two days ago and have booked their spot in the EL final, which is going to be their biggest game of the season since it's now their only shot at playing CL football next season. They may not risk some players during this match against a tough Burnley side, and I don't think they'll be killing themselves out there seeing as they don't really have anything to play for in the league now and have barely had any time to prepare for this match. Burnley on the other hand, have been a much better team in the second half of the season, with 5 wins and 1 draw in their last 9 home matches in the EPL, including wins over Tottenham and Wolves. While they don't really have anything to play for either, players from any team are always motivated to play against any of the top teams in a league, especially on their own turf. Burnley Double Chance @ 1.81 with Betfair - 8 Units Back Burnley to win @ 3.3 with Betfair - 2 Units

Newcastle vs. Liverpool I really don't see Liverpool winning this game comfortably. They've only had 3 days to prepare for this match and they will surely be tired both physically and emotionally after their 3-0 away defeat to Barcelona last Wednesday. I think they'll be looking to get the job done and I see them winning this game 0-1 or so. They haven't exactly blown teams out of the water away from home in the EPL this season as they've only beaten two teams by 2+ goals away from home all season. As for Newcastle, they've won 6 of their last 7 home matches, including a 2-1 win over City. They are a defensively organized team and have only lost once at home all season by more than a two-goal margin. And while they did lose to United, Arsenal, Chelsea, and Tottenham at home, only one of those matches was lost by more than a one-goal margin and I think they could manage to frustrate Liverpool for a while. I simply don't see them losing here by more than a two-goal margin. Newcastle AH +2.0 @ 1.47 with Betfair - 10 units

Lazio vs. Atalanta Two teams going head to head here competing for a Champions League spot. Gasperini's Atalanta have been a surprise package this season and play some of the most entertaining attacking football in the league. Before their last home match, Lazio had only lost to Juventus, Inter, and Napoli this season, but then they surprisingly and disappointingly lost to a Chievo team that is dead last in the league with only 15 points to their name in 34 matches. Their home form has generally been decent (7th best in the league) but their results against the teams in the league have been very poor: Home and away defeats against Juventus Home and away defeats against Napoli Home draw and away defeat against Milan Home defeat and away win against Inter Home win and away defeat against Roma Away defeat against Atalanta Home draw against Torino So they've collected just 5 points out of a possible 18 at home against 6 of the 7 teams above them in the table, excluding Atalanta. Atalanta, on the other hand, drew 0-0 against Inter and defeated Napoli 2-1 in their last two away games. They also drew against both Milan and Roma earlier in the season and have yet to play Juventus in Turin but they did knock them out of the Coppa Italia, so they've shown time and time again this season that they deserve to be in the running for a CL spot. I think Atalanta are underpriced to get a result here. Atalanta AH +0.25 @ 1.94 with Betfair - 8 Units

Empoli vs. Fiorentina Going for goals here for obvious reasons. Despite Empoli being a very good attacking team (especially at home), they're currently in the relegation zone, 4 points below Udinese due to their very poor defense. Surprisingly, despite being 18th in the league with only two matches remaining, Empoli's xG at home this season is the 6th best in the league, but their xGA is the 2nd worst, which is why they've been struggling. They've only failed to score three times - against Inter, Roma, and Lazio, and have kept just two clean sheets all season. Fiorentina, on the other hand, have the 6th best xG as well as the 6th best xGA away from home this season, but that is mostly thanks to their early-season form. They've conceded in their last 7 away trips, and have shipped in 9 goals in their last 4 away matches, but they've scored in all 7 of those away trips as well. Over 2.75 Goals @ 1.85 with Betfair - 6 units

Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace The Gunners are chasing a CL spot in what is a very tight race, and a win today would see them go third and above Spurs for the first time this season if I'm not mistaken. Arsenal's home form this season has been incredible, with 10 consecutive home wins in the EPL so far and only one loss against City on the opening day and two draws against Liverpool and Wolves. I think we're going to see another win here in what is a must-win game for them if they want to get one step closer to qualifying for the CL, especially given their away form, what has been rather poor this season. The two main concerns are: Arsenal just played in the Europa League on Thursday and managed to qualify to the semi-final over Napoli so they haven't had much time to rest and prepare for this match. Crystal Palace's form away from home is actually better than their home form. They rank 19th at home and 7th away from home. Still, we have to consider that: 12 out of Arsenal's 14 home games this season were won by more than one goal. While Crystal Palace did beat City at the Etihad this season, they had some wonder goals that game and they did lose against Liverpool, Chelsea, and Tottenham away from home. Palace have the biggest difference in the league between their xG and actual goals scored away from home, suggesting they either have world-class strikers, or they've been a bit lucky. I think it's more the latter and I don't think they'll keep outplaying their xG as they have been. Arsenal have improved defensively recently as they've conceded just one goal in their last seven matches in all competitions. Overall, I think Arsenal have more to play for and they do relish playing these home games against weaker opposition. Arsenal AH -1.0 @ 1.89 with Betfair

Bologna vs. Sampdoria Bologna head into this match just two points above the relegation zone. They seemed destined for relegation under Inzaghi but they've taken a more attacking approach and have definitely improved a lot overall since Mihajlovic took over at the end of January. They had won just two games from twenty-one under Inzaghi and have since won They're in good form with 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 defeat in their last 6 matches and have scored 7 goals in their last three home matches, winning all three. As for Sampdoria, they've won 3 and lost 3 from their last 6, and have scored 8 goals in their last three away matches, winning two and losing one. I'm going for the goals market here, given the above and the following: Bologna average 1.67xG under Mihajlovic. More than 1.5xG in 6 of their 11 games under Mihailovic compared to 5 out of 21 under Inzaghi. Sampdoria's last 9 consecutive away games have all gone Over 2.5 I think this will be an open, entertaining game of football due to the styles of play here, and happy to take this selection at the given odds. Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.06 with Betfair

Yeah, I'm taking the exact same bet here. Barcelona are just too good at home, especially in the CL. They've defeated the likes of Lyon, Inter, Roma, Chelsea, Juventus, and PSG over the past two years by more than one goal, and the majority of these teams are better than this United side, in my opinion. They also haven't conceded more than one goal at the Camp Nou in the CL in the past 30 games. And if we look at the first leg, I think Barcelona never got out of 2nd gear and United had ZERO shots on target. With United struggling recently and needing to score, coupled with the fact that Barcelona's best players were rested on the weekend, I'm all over this.

Roma vs. Udinese Claudio Ranieri is already under a bit of pressure with two losses, a draw, and one win since his arrival. The club and fans alike are definitely expecting to reach 4th for that CL spot and it will be tough with still the likes of Inter away and Juve at home still left to play, so they'll really need to get maximum points in matches like these vs. Udinese. While Udinese have been pretty dreadful away from home this season, they are on a good run since Igor Tudor took over, with two wins and a draw from his opening three games and have managed to score 6 goals in those 3 matches, including a 1-1 draw at Milan. They've also managed to score away at Juventus and two goals away at Napoli recently. Stats-wise, Roma have the highest xG at home so far this season but only the 12th best in terms of xGA, and BTTS was seen in 13 out of their 15 home matches this season. While Udinese do have the 3rd worst xG and 12th best xGA away from home, the return of Igor Tudor has definitely seen them improve in an attacking sense. Also, the fact that both teams have something to play for - Roma the CL, and Udinese avoiding relegation - further suggests that both teams will be looking to score goals. BTTS @ 1.8 with Betfair - 4 Units

Bournemouth vs. Burnley I feel like Bournemouth are slightly underrated in this match. While both teams aren't in the best of form, Bournemouth's home form is completely different from their away form. As for Burnley, they went on a great run of 5 wins and 3 draws but then they suffered 4 straight defeats before winning their last match against Wolves, which I feel is a factor in why the bookies might be overrating Burnley here but that win was at home, and while Wolves are great against the "Big Six", they actually have a very poor record against the bottom teams in the premier league. Bournemouth have lost just four matches at home all season - from Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Manchester City - and won 7 and drew 5. Only the "Big Six" and Wolves have a better xG at home than Bournemouth and they're are ranked 11th in xGA, whereas Burnley are ranked 15th in xG and 19th in xGA away from home so far this season. Burnley have won just three away matches all season; against Cardiff, Huddersfield, and Brighton, and have drawn 4 and lost 9. My main concern is that Bournemouth might be lacking in motivation at the moment given their mid-table standing, whereas Burnley are fighting to avoid relegation and would love to get something out of this match before their six-pointer vs. Cardiff next week. Having said that, I still think Bournemouth will be too strong for them at home. They could've easily won their recent two home matches against Wolves and Newcastle instead of drawing them; they missed an 85th-minute penalty in the former and conceded a 94th-minute goal in the latter and were the better team in both matches with a superior xG. Bournemouth to win @ 2.14 with Betfair - 4 units

Juventus vs. AC Milan Juventus head into this match against AC Milan with a huge 18-point lead over second place Napoli and an incredible 29-point lead over AC Milan, indicative of the gulf in class between the two sides. Juventus are a team which does not seem to lack any motivation winning games even if they've pretty much won the league already and will want to maintain momentum heading into their first leg CL match away at Ajax on Wednesday. AC Milan had improved of late but now find themselves in a bad run of form having picked up just one point from their last three matches, including 3-2 loss vs Inter, a match in which Milan were clearly second-best, and a 1-0 loss to Sampdoria in their last away match. And with Atalanta, Roma, Lazio, and Torino all within four points away from Milan, the pressure is on Gattuso to try to bring the team back to the CL. I think the odds here are incredibly generous for a Juventus win here, seeing as: Allegri's Juventus have an incredibly strong home record, having won 13 out 15 (86.67%) home matches in Serie A this season, and drawing the other two. If we include last season as well, then we can see that they have 29 out of 34 wins (85.3%), with just 1 loss. Under Allegri, Juventus have won 20 out of 23 (87%) against the top 6 in Serie A. Milan don't have the best record against the top sides in Serie A this season, having lost to Inter home and away, and lost to Juventus, and picked up 1 point against Napoli (at home) over two legs. Milan have an atrocious record against Juventus, having lost the last 7 consecutive matches against them by a goal margin of 16 to 3, and lost the last 11 out of 12. The fact that Ronaldo won't be playing is possibly a big factor in why the bookies are giving Juventus just a ~55% probability of winning this match, I imagine, especially when they had given them much shorter odds when they played Inter, Roma, and Lazio at home, so I don't see any reason why I shouldn't back them at these current odds. Juventus to win @ 1.81 with Betfair - 8 units

Definitely agree, @vicsuna. This game has goals written all over it, and the prices exhibit that, but I would've expected a shorter price for BTTS than 1.8. Atalanta vs. Bologna Each side here is fighting for something; Atalanta for a CL spot and Bologna are fighting to avoid relegation. Both come into this match in good form with Atalanta winning 3 of their 4 and drawing 1, whereas Bologna have won their last 3, including an impressive 2-3 away win at Torino, especially considering the fact that only 4 teams have conceded fewer goals at home than Torino. In terms of stats: Atalanta have kept just 6 clean sheets out of 29 matches played so far this season and 4 out of 13 at home in Serie A. BTTS was seen in each of Atalanta's last 6 home matches in Serie A. Atalanta have failed to score just 6 times out of 29 matches in Serie A, and only once in the last 21 matches. Bologna have kept just 7 clean sheets out of 29 matches played so far this season and 3 out of 15 away from home in Serie A. BTTS was seen in 5 out of Bologna's last 6 away matches. Bologna have failed to score in 10 of their 29 matches in Serie A, but have scored in 9 out of their 11, and have scored in 4 out of 5 matches since manager Mihajlovic took over - only failing to score against Juventus. When looking at expected goals and goals against overall this season: Atalanta are ranked 7th in xG but also rank 4th best in xGA at home. Bologna are ranked 9th in xG and 12th in xGA away from home. Given the stats above and the fact that both sides are fighting for a CL spot and to avoid relegation, respectively, I think there's some value here in these odds for BTTS, even if the price dropped since yesterday. BTTS @ 1.8 with Betfair - 7 Units

Roma vs. Fiorentina Both teams head into this match not in the best of form; Roma have 1 win and 4 losses in their last five matches in all competitions and Fiorentina have 3 draws and 2 losses in their last five matches. In terms of goals, this is where things get interesting: All 9 out of Roma's last 9 consecutive matches at home in Serie A have seen both teams score and 8 of them were Over 2.5. Roma have scored in 19 out of their 21 home matches in all competitions this season. Roma have scored in their last 16 consecutive matches in all competitions since a 1-0 against Juventus in December. 12 out of Roma's 14 home matches in Serie A this season saw BTTS. Fiorentina's last 6 consecutive away matches in Serie A this season have seen BTTS, and 5 of them were Over 2.5. Fiorentina have scored in 12 out of their 16 away matches and 12 out of their last 13 matches overall in all competitions this season. 10 out of Fiorentina's 15 away matches this season have seen BTTS. Also, in terms of Expected Goals and Goals Against: Roma have the highest xG at home in the league so far this season. Roma have the worst xGA at home in the top 9, with only 7 teams in the league with a worse xGA at home than them. Fiorentina have the 6th best xG away from home in the league so far. (Fiorentina have the 6th best xGA away from home so far.) In terms of injuries and suspensions, Fiorentina's joint top scorer Chiesa and midfielder Fernandes are out, but they aren't reliant on him to score goals. As for Roma, top scorer El Shaarawy is also out but they still have Kolarov and Dzeko who are more than capable of scoring. Defensively, Roma will be without both Manolas and Florenzi, which makes it less likely for them to keep a clean sheet here today against a side that has scored in 12 of their last 13 matches. Besides the fact that Roma will be looking to avenge Fiorentina's 7-1 win over them in the Coppa Italia last January, they will push forward to try and get all 3 points here as they chase a champions league spot, and Fiorentina's Stefano Pioli is under pressure after a string of bad results so he'll also be looking to get something positive out of this match as well. BTTS @ 1.66 with Betfair - 8 units

Frosinone vs. SPAL I'm going for a relatively low-key game considering the other clashes in Serie A this weekend, but I do see value in the goals market here. First of all, this is a must-win match for both these teams; Frosinone are currently 19th and are eight points away from 17th place Empoli with eleven matches left to play so if they are to have any chance of avoiding relegation then they have to win a winnable match like this one, whereas SPAL are 16th and only two points above the drop-zone, so this is equally a must-win match for them. In terms of goals, in Frosinone's 13 home matches so far, Over 1.5 was seen in ten and Over 2.5 in six of those matches. Whereas in SPAL's 14 away matches, Over 1.5 was seen in eleven and Over 2.5 in six. My main concern here is that the match starts out a bit cagey and then one of the teams (especially Frosinone) score and then decide to set up shop to try to defend that lead, but even if that happens the other team will be forced to go all out towards the end of the game to try to get anything from this match, leaving the other team with a bigger opportunity to score again. Given the fact that one of Frosinone's three wins so far this season came against SPAL in a 3-0 away win, they will definitely feel that can win this, and given SPAL's ability to score and lack of ability to keep a clean sheet I'm going with Over 2.0 here with a return of stake if the match ends with exactly two goals scored. Over 2.0 @ 1.82 with Betfair

Sevilla vs. Real Sociedad Sorry, this is a very late preview with under an hour left for kick-off. Real Sociedad are simply a tough team to beat. Since their change of coach last December, they've won 4, drawn 6, and lost just once last week against Atletico Madrid. So that's one loss in eleven matches since the start of the year. They are the 4th best away side in La Liga so far this season, after the big 3. And they've lost only twice so far this season by more than one-goal margin - both times were against Atletico Madrid. Sevilla on the other hand, are struggling after it had seemed they would easily qualify for a champions league spot and had even challenged for the title at some point. Fighting on three fronts seems to be a factor in their poor run of results recently. They now have two wins in ten matches in all competitions, and 4 losses and 1 draw in their last 5 La Liga matches. They do have a good home record in La Liga however, losing twice so far this season to Getafe and to Barcelona last week, with 7 wins and 3 draws in their 13 matches played. However, only 3 wins were by more than a one-goal margin. They are 7th in the home table so far in La Liga. I'm very happy to back Real Sociedad on a handicap here at these odds. Real Sociedad AH +1.0 @ 1.84 with Betfair