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dinero

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  1. Eibar - Sevilla My pick: Eibar under 1 @ 2.01 (Pinnacle) Sevilla is not the sharpest when attacking (missing presence in the box is their main problem), but their defense is very solid and I like the look of this bet. If Eibar scores, which is totally possible of course, we get the money back but I highly doubt Sevilla will concede twice in that game. Yes, they are probably a bit tired as they traveled a long way last week and played against Real Madrid straight after, but this will probably result in a dull game, not in conceded goals. And dull games usually mean not many goals so I find 2,01 worth a try.
  2. No thread for the midweek fixtures so I'll drop my picks here in the old thread. Valladolid - Granada Valladolid has problems with creating proper scoring chances let alone finding the net while Granada is having a dream start to the season. While Barca was utter crap in the weekend, Granada still deserves a lot of credit beating the Catalans. Of course, one could not get too carried away about the short term success of a newly-promoted small team, but I do think Granada will be getting something out of today's match and value is definitely on their side in my opinion. Having seen both sides play this season, I expect a low scoring draw or a narrow win for the visitors. My pick: Granada +0,25 AH @ 1,85 (Pinnacle) Real Betis - Levante Despite having quite a lot of talent in their team, Betis has been quite woeful at the start of the season. They have periods in the games where it's promising but overall are not as exciting to watch as I would have hoped for, at least so far. They lack decisiveness and finishing touch and on top of that today they are without their new star-man Fekir. He is class, although probably needs a bit more time to show it on a constant basis. Anyway, Levante has not had a much better start to the season and I do see the home team as favorites, but at odds around 1,9 with half a ball advantage, I'll take Levante easily in current situation. My pick: Levante +0,5 AH @ 1,91 (Pinnacle) Barcelona - Villarreal What a game that can turn out to be. Villarreal games are full of goals more often than not and Barca at home is a powerhouse even if their away form is ridiculous. Actually, because of that they probably try even harder at Camp Nou. But as seen against Valencia and Betis, they still suck in some goals and I can see Villarreal easily scoring today coz Barca defence is nothing special at the moment. They do make mistakes constantly, but at home, they just outscore their opponents. Home win nor overs don't have any value, so I go with BTTS which seems very nice at around 1,6 My pick: BTTS @ 1,625 (Pinnacle)
  3. Totally agree about Zidane. I'm not convinced that Sevilla will win either, but odds @ 2,6 are pure value for me as I see the probability of Sevilla winning being bigger than 38% Anyway, good luck to everybody and hopefully we'll see a entertaining match.
  4. Villarreal - Valladolid 21.09 Villarreal seems pretty good this season offensive wise, especially Moreno, who is on fire. Their defense is pretty poor though so I think they will concede at least one goal, but will go on to win in the end. Villarreal to win has a bit too low odds imo, but over 2,5 at 1,87 seems better. Pick: Over 2,5 @ 1,87 (SBO) Sevilla - Real Madrid 22.09 Considering how unstable Real Madrid is, without a real game plan and not the best team spirit at the moment (Perez threatened even after the PSG loss that Zidane may get fired soon), I think value is on Sevilla side big time. Estadio Ram?n has always been a difficult place for Real (for everybody really) and this time will not be different. And although Sevilla are the leaders I'm not totally convinced in them just yet, they are missing a deadly goalscorer upfront IMO, but if Real comes out as shaky as they have been this season, then I see clear value on Sevilla side with these odds. Pick: Sevilla win @ 2,6 (Coolbet)
  5. From today games I'm leaning towards Eibar and 1,5 AH and Valencia win, also pretty much agree with Stevie, but "officially" will go only with Valencia win @ 1,94 (Pinnacle). I really like this Valencia team, they are organized, disciplined, good defensively and offensively. Against Real Madrid they created a lot of good chances while not allowing Real to have too much say in the attack and I can't see them losing any points here. That is not to say it's going to be easy - definitely not, but I think Valencia will grind a win here to make yet another claim for the 4th place in the table.
  6. Huesca - Celta Vigo Huge game for both sides. HUGE. Celta fought back from 2-0 down against Villarreal what was a show of bad defending overall. But it was still an amazing emotional show as Aspas made his comeback after missing 3 months and proved how important he is to Celta. What a legend and Celta icon. He truly has Celta de Vigo in his heart, you could see that after the game where he basically cried for a whole hour. Probably from the physical pain + joy + the pressure that was on his shoulders etc. Having Aspas back is the only hope for Celta to stay in the top division this season - he just makes all the other attacking players better beside him as well. And give the whole team hope. But their defence is still a mess, Villarreal second goal was a clear proof of that (not to take anything away from Pedraza since it was a very nice goal). Huesca, on the other hand, lost on matchday 29, but it was an impressive game from them against Real Madrid where they probably deserved the draw that was so close. They can score goals, it's just their defensive side that lets them down usually. They play better than their result show and they need a win here, desperately, against fellow strugglers to have any chance to stay in La Liga since they are rock bottom and 8 points away from the saving place of 17th. Obviously, it's very very hard to achieve this, but if they win today, this dream still could be turned into reality. Any other result would make it basically mission impossible. So in conclusion, Celta win would take them 1 point clear from the relegation zone and for Huesca it's their last chance to have any hope to stay in the league next season as well. Basically a final and must-win for both teams. And considering that Celta with Aspas is capable of scoring against any opposition and Huesca is also good attacking wise + neither teams excel defensively I can see us witnessing at least 3 goals if not more and yet another emotional game. Pick: Over 2,5 goals @ 1,91 (Pinnacle) Whoever has access to Coolbet, a little bonus bet: Aspas to score anytime @ 2,67 (most other bookies have it just above 2 so plenty of value with these odds) Valencia - Real Madrid Valencia was second best team against a very good Sevilla side but still managed to steal a narrow win with Parejo once again deciding the game for Los Ches. But they still managed to create some very good chances and kept a clean sheet in a game where Sevilla really showed some attacking strength. Real played with a lot of substitute players and didn't impress at all, but managed to grab a win thanks to Benzema who has been really good this season in my opinion. Of course today all healthy first team players will be playing and we a different kind of Real, but I still feel that Valencia at home is capable of winning against Real Madrid side who are still searchig for their game plan and confidence. Zidane probably tried a few new things as well because they really don't have anything at stake (yeah I know, beating Atletico for the second place would be good, but its not the most important thing and i dont think they will place too much importance to this) while Valencia has everything to fight for regarding the last CL spot which is so close now. Pick: Valencia AH +0 @ 2,11 (Pinnacle)
  7. I'm not too good with long analyzes as Stevie here but will add my 2 cents: Sevilla - Valencia Very important match and the game of the round for me. Both teams are aiming for the Champions League place for next season and only 3 points difference between these two. Valencia should have made their life easier last round as they were clearly a superior team against Getafe, but they held on and got the draw from Valencia. Sevilla, on the other hand, got a bit lucky against Espanyol with a narrow 1-0 win - it was even-steven until they scored and after that most of the game was played in front of their goal and Espanyol had couple of very good chances to draw, but in the end Sevilla got the 3 points they desperately needed. Today I can see Valencia extending their 15 games unbeaten run and getting away with at least a draw. Sevilla has been on-off in the second half of the season and I definitely see value on Valencia side although Valencia straight win odds have dropped from 3,1 to 2,8 or so. If I had bigger cojones, would even suggest Valencia straight win but will go with a safer AH option. Pick: Valencia (0) @ 2,06 @ Pinnacle
  8. Girona - Bilbao In a hurry, but I think there is value in a draw here today. Both teams had good wins last round and will be trying to keep the momentum going. Home stadium is no edge for Girona usually since they are very poor at home and Bilbao can definately take a point here. Pick: Draw @ 2,98 (Pinnacle) I was actually thinking about goals as well since odds for Over 2,5 are around 2,7 or so and I do see it representing value IMO, but you never know with these 2 teams, especially since I think Bilbao defense has improved so will leave it as just a lean.
  9. Malta - Spain Spain has been playing well under Luis Enrique, although they finishing needs polishing, I do feel the Spaniards are in for a walk in the park as Malta is just so many classes below and Spain with their technical and creative players can show the home team football ABC even when they have an off day. And I think after a narrow win over Norway, Spain wants to get some samba football going and really enjoy the game. Weather is perfect for playing football and scoring some nice goals. Pretty sure the visitors will unlock Malta defence early on and cruise to a comfortable halftime lead. Pick: Spain -1,5 HT @ 1,77 (Pinnacle)
  10. Eintracht Frankfurt - Inter It very rarely happens that Frankfurt does not score at home, in fact this season it has not happened in Europe yet. They have scored several goals most of the games and I expect the same to continue here today. They also very rarely keep clean sheet, though. Germans are in good form. Inter on the other hand are not in a good shape. They lack confidence, have problems inside the squad (Icardi!) and Spalletti not doing very good work overall. Every once in a while a different Inter shows up and in that case they would be able to put up a good fight, but in any case, I can see goals in that match so will stay away from placing a bet on a winner. Over 2,5 @ 2 (SBO) Sevilla - Slavia Prague Not much to say here - Sevilla are the kings of this competition and I'm sure they will want to make things pretty clear in the first leg that is played at home. Not too familiar with Slavia, but there is obviously a difference in class and when Sevilla concentrates (which I believe they do) to get a good result here, they will manage to do so. Sevilla -1.25 AH @ 1,93 (Pinnacle)
  11. PSG - Man United Manchester United was clearly second best team 2 weeks ago at Old Trafford and I think it will be the same today. But Ole Gunnar seems to be really the kind of guy who will not give up and is not afraid to at least go out and try so I expect ManU to exit CL with style. After all, 1st leg game was very impotent from them so I think they will want at least show to Europe that they have more fire-power than they showed at home. That being said, PSG is currently just better as a team and individually as well. Visitors have a lot of injured players out of the game as well so it will be really hard. On top of that, PSG has Ligue 1 nicely wrapped up and I expect them to come out with a hunger to prove everybody that they can be a powerhouse in Europe as well and out-playing in a good form ManU in both legs will be a good first step. I can see ManU really trying hard to attack and score while PSG patiently looking for counter attacks and with Mbappe up front, scoring at least a few against a weakened ManU team. But ManU is always capable of scoring when they have to, so I hope to see an entertaining game with at least 3 goals scored, hopefully more though. Predicted score: 3-1 Over 3 goals @ 2,05 (Coolbet) PSG -1 @ 1,81 (SBO) Porto - Roma Looking latest results, one would not say that Roma is in a very bad shape (4 wins out of 5 game sinclusing 1st leg against Porto), but the reality is a bit different. There is tension is Roma camp and a lot of talks that EDF will get fired etc. Last week heavy defeat against arch-rivals Lazio was a big blow that any Roma player or fan is not able to swallow for a long time. Porto has a similar pattern in their latest form - good results in the league until last weekend where they lost an important game to Benfica. I'm not too familiar with Porto news, but I do expect them to dominate today's game and keep it tight at the back. Their home stadium is quite a fortress and I don't think Roma in current form and situation is in a shape to bring a good result from that kind of game. I expect Porto to dominate the game and qualify in a low scoring intense game. Predicted score: 1-0 Under 2,75 @ 2,14 (Asianodds) Porto to qualify @ 2,22 (Betsafe)
  12. Anybody knows whats up with Brescia - Crotone? League leaders at home vs relegation zone team @ 1,9 does not make sense unless there are some big missings from home team...?
  13. Real Madrid - Levante Under 3,5 goals @ 2,25 (Pinnacle) If the "right" Real will show up tomorrow then this bet will probably sink, but considering current situation that Real has been woeful in front of goal and not scoring in over 400 minutes, then under 3,5 @ 2+ odds is value for me. Doesn't really matter at the moment who is the opponent, it's just a bet against Real Madrid attacking problems. Villarreal - Atletico Madrid Pick: Atletico Madrid @ 2,25 (Coolbet) Villarreal has been very week this season with 8 points from 8 games and before the international break, Espanyol destroyed them properly. Their attack is pretty week and defense isn't anything special either. Atleti on the other hand is rock solid in defense and they have a habit to push this 1 goal through that is needed for the win. Expecting 1-0 or 2-0 Atleti win here. Huesca - Espanyol Pick: Espanyol @ 2,17 (Coolbet) Espanyol has found the groove under Rubi this season, attacking nicely and winning games. Huesca is a bit unknown currently since they changed the coach, but I expect the away team to take the 3 points they are definitely going after in this game. Agreed with Stevie about Valencia as well overall, but Valencia straight win with too low odds for my taste and not too sure about covering the 2 goal handicap just yet...
  14. Watching the match and no sign of Anett beeing sick or tired ;D Seems to be easy win
  15. Hey, CzechPunter Just some local information for this match. I'm no tennis expert by any means, but I'm Estonian as Kontaveit and read her interview after the first round win against that young Russian prospect and Anett said that she is feeling a bit sick, is tired and haven't been able to train properly, so not sure if this bet has value on current situation... In any way - good luck with the bet if you have already placed it and let's hope for Anetts win ;=)