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  1. No thread for matchday 4 so I'll add my picks to this one. Real Sociedad - Valencia Sociedad has had a rather slow start to the season, but they are slowly getting into the groove and took their first win of the season couple of days ago against newly-promoted Elche side (3-0). Yes, Elche is rather a second division team and will very likely go back to Segunda after this season, but this bet is more against Valencia than it is for Sociedad. Valencia had a nice start to the season couple of weeks ago against Levante, but they are in shambles and this is more clear with every match. In each match this season they have dropped a level, team spirit is low and coach Javi Garcia is already criticising the management of not doing their job (of buying new players and building the team as was promised to him). He has said that with the quality he has in the team, it's not possible to get better result and that tells a lot ... So if Sociedad will play as good (or better) as they did against Elche, I think the win will be more than 1 goal difference and I'm happy to take -1 AH at around evens. Pick: Sociedad -1 AH @ 2.0 Huesca - Atletico Madrid Atletico had an amazing game vs Granada but of course we can't read to much into one match. Especially against a small team who is battling on two fronts, but scoring 6 goals and having so much fun on the pitch from minute 1 was a joy to watch. And I think they will continue with the momentum and score at least couple against Huesca. Suarez is an amazing addition to the team and probably just what they needed attacking/scoring wise and fits perfectly to the dressing room imo. Atletico looked overall in a great shape and I think with the addition of El Pistolero they are amongs the titles challengers in a season where there is no favourite imo. Pick: Atletico to score over 1.5 goals @ 1.9 Sevilla - Levante Levante is an attacking side and while Sevilla can be very hard nut to crack, I think on current form Levante is easily able to score a goal against them. That being said, Sevilla is very strong this season and one goal against them in Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan is not enough. Pick: BTTS + over 2.5 @ 2.37 Getafe - Real Betis Getafe is a well known team with strong defense and while it seems Real Betis has also improved defensively, I still think this game has value in goals. Both teams come from a disappointing weekend (Getafe from a goalless draw and while Betis was of course underdog against Real, they probably feel hard done by referee) and want to get back to winnings ways. Pure math says it will be a low scoring match, but when either of the sides open the scoring, we can see a rather high scoring game here. Pick: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.46 Celta Vigo - Barcelona This one should be an entertaining match and while Barca seemed solid in defense against a very disappointing Villarreal side, I'm not sure this game was a real indicator of they strength yet. Celta at home is quite good attacking wise and I don't think Barca, after such a weird summer, has drastically improved their away form. Yeah, they will probably win and Koeman probably has done a better job than most people expected, but I expect Celta to score at least one. Nobody doubts Barcelonas attacking power with all the names they have up front, so we should see a great match between 2 attacking sides. Pick: BTTS + over 2.5 @ 2.05
  2. +2.3 units so can't complain (leans are just informative suggestions and I don't play those) Betis - Real Madrid: went quite south with the pick, but at least it was an entertaining match.
  3. I'm not a skillful writer/storyteller, so will keep it short and simple. In my mind those matches are way more analyzed, but here we go: Valencia - Huesca Los Che is a team to watch this season if you want to see a entertaining football match - their defense is very weak and midfield makes childish mistakes/gives the ball away cheaply also (Esquerdo is especially weak imo) so overall it's very easy to score goals against them at the moment. Levante scored 2 and should have scored more (suffered a defeat only because of their own naive game plan) and Celta won only 2-1 although they should have won by at least 3 goals. At the same time, though, Valencia attacking power is quite good, especially Maxi Gomez who has started the season very well. He can score out of nowhere + has a skillful sidekick Kang-In Lee to assist him. Huesca on the other hand has had 2 very different games. They played quite well against Villarreal and scored a great team goal, but didn't do anything useful with the 79% possession against a well organized Cadiz team. I think the odds here for unders are so high because of the latter mentioned fact. But against Valencia, things should be very different and I expect both teams to score at least one goal with Valencia probably winning in the end. Pick: BTTS @ 1.9 (bet365) Lean: Over 2.5 @ 2.19 (SBO) or as possible with some bookies (including bet365): BTTS + Over 2.5 @ 2.6 Elche - Real Sociedad La Real has not had the start for the season as was hoped for, but it is to be expected as the end of last season already showed some signs of it. On top of that, they have had serious injury/covid problem and lost Ödegaard who was their main architect (replaced by the brilliant David Villa of course, but it will take time for him to get into the groove). Of course draw against champions Real Madrid is nothing to be ashamed of, but overall the flow is not there yet. But this week most players are back and team overall has had 2 games to get things going. Against them is newly promoted Elche team who are tipped to go down to Segunda and I totally agree - they just don't have to quality for Primera division. This is the perfect game for Sociedad to get back on winning ways. I believe they are totally capable of doing it and gladly take these odds for the away win. Pick: Real Sociedad win @ 2.1 (Coolbet, Unibet etc) Lean: Alexander Isak anytime scorer @ 3 Real Betis - Real Madrid Real Madrid is lacking something up front. Yes, the can dominate games and so on, but in regards of goal threat, they will struggle a little bit this season and it showed against Sociedad last weekend. Yes, it was just the first match of their season and Zidane experimented with the line-up and formation quite a bit, but I'm still convinced that Los Blancos are too reliant on Benzema form and will grind quite a lot of narrow wins this season as they did in the second part of last season. Pretty sure Zidane will go back to his old 4-3-3 as well for this game. Betis has really improved under Pellegrini, especially defensively (signing Claudio Bravo has helped a lot also). They look totally different team compared to last seasons - organized and knowing what they are asked to do on the pitch. And although they have awesome attacking players, it takes a bit more time to get the flow to start scoring easily. I think both teams will cancel each other out and we'll see a low-scoring draw or maybe a narrow win for the reigning champions. Pick: Under 2.75 @ 1.92 (bet365 and some others) Lean: draw @ 4 Osasuna - Levante I think Osasuna would have been favourites this weekend if the following 2 circumstances would have been filled: 1) Crowd would be allowed in the stadium 2) Osasuna best defender Aridane would be fit and ready to play. But neither of these are happening this weekend, so for me it is a 50/50 game and I will take happily Levante DNB Pick: Levante DNB @ 2.3 (Betsafe, Coolbet etc) Lean: Over 2.5 @ 2.13 (SBO) Valladolid - Celta Vigo Celta was really good last weekend, but we have to remember they played against Valencia and Valladolid defense is a different kind of test. On top of that Celta has shown some signs and given hope of improvement/playing closer to their potential every now and then the last couple of seasons and then falling back to being miserable the next game, so I think Valladolid +0 here with these odds is good value. Pick: Valladolid +0 AH @ 2.03 (Pinnacle)
  4. Eibar - Sevilla My pick: Eibar under 1 @ 2.01 (Pinnacle) Sevilla is not the sharpest when attacking (missing presence in the box is their main problem), but their defense is very solid and I like the look of this bet. If Eibar scores, which is totally possible of course, we get the money back but I highly doubt Sevilla will concede twice in that game. Yes, they are probably a bit tired as they traveled a long way last week and played against Real Madrid straight after, but this will probably result in a dull game, not in conceded goals. And dull games usually mean not many goals so I find 2,01 worth a try.
  5. No thread for the midweek fixtures so I'll drop my picks here in the old thread. Valladolid - Granada Valladolid has problems with creating proper scoring chances let alone finding the net while Granada is having a dream start to the season. While Barca was utter crap in the weekend, Granada still deserves a lot of credit beating the Catalans. Of course, one could not get too carried away about the short term success of a newly-promoted small team, but I do think Granada will be getting something out of today's match and value is definitely on their side in my opinion. Having seen both sides play this season, I expect a low scoring draw or a narrow win for the visitors. My pick: Granada +0,25 AH @ 1,85 (Pinnacle) Real Betis - Levante Despite having quite a lot of talent in their team, Betis has been quite woeful at the start of the season. They have periods in the games where it's promising but overall are not as exciting to watch as I would have hoped for, at least so far. They lack decisiveness and finishing touch and on top of that today they are without their new star-man Fekir. He is class, although probably needs a bit more time to show it on a constant basis. Anyway, Levante has not had a much better start to the season and I do see the home team as favorites, but at odds around 1,9 with half a ball advantage, I'll take Levante easily in current situation. My pick: Levante +0,5 AH @ 1,91 (Pinnacle) Barcelona - Villarreal What a game that can turn out to be. Villarreal games are full of goals more often than not and Barca at home is a powerhouse even if their away form is ridiculous. Actually, because of that they probably try even harder at Camp Nou. But as seen against Valencia and Betis, they still suck in some goals and I can see Villarreal easily scoring today coz Barca defence is nothing special at the moment. They do make mistakes constantly, but at home, they just outscore their opponents. Home win nor overs don't have any value, so I go with BTTS which seems very nice at around 1,6 My pick: BTTS @ 1,625 (Pinnacle)
  6. Totally agree about Zidane. I'm not convinced that Sevilla will win either, but odds @ 2,6 are pure value for me as I see the probability of Sevilla winning being bigger than 38% Anyway, good luck to everybody and hopefully we'll see a entertaining match.
  7. Villarreal - Valladolid 21.09 Villarreal seems pretty good this season offensive wise, especially Moreno, who is on fire. Their defense is pretty poor though so I think they will concede at least one goal, but will go on to win in the end. Villarreal to win has a bit too low odds imo, but over 2,5 at 1,87 seems better. Pick: Over 2,5 @ 1,87 (SBO) Sevilla - Real Madrid 22.09 Considering how unstable Real Madrid is, without a real game plan and not the best team spirit at the moment (Perez threatened even after the PSG loss that Zidane may get fired soon), I think value is on Sevilla side big time. Estadio Ram?n has always been a difficult place for Real (for everybody really) and this time will not be different. And although Sevilla are the leaders I'm not totally convinced in them just yet, they are missing a deadly goalscorer upfront IMO, but if Real comes out as shaky as they have been this season, then I see clear value on Sevilla side with these odds. Pick: Sevilla win @ 2,6 (Coolbet)
  8. From today games I'm leaning towards Eibar and 1,5 AH and Valencia win, also pretty much agree with Stevie, but "officially" will go only with Valencia win @ 1,94 (Pinnacle). I really like this Valencia team, they are organized, disciplined, good defensively and offensively. Against Real Madrid they created a lot of good chances while not allowing Real to have too much say in the attack and I can't see them losing any points here. That is not to say it's going to be easy - definitely not, but I think Valencia will grind a win here to make yet another claim for the 4th place in the table.
  9. Huesca - Celta Vigo Huge game for both sides. HUGE. Celta fought back from 2-0 down against Villarreal what was a show of bad defending overall. But it was still an amazing emotional show as Aspas made his comeback after missing 3 months and proved how important he is to Celta. What a legend and Celta icon. He truly has Celta de Vigo in his heart, you could see that after the game where he basically cried for a whole hour. Probably from the physical pain + joy + the pressure that was on his shoulders etc. Having Aspas back is the only hope for Celta to stay in the top division this season - he just makes all the other attacking players better beside him as well. And give the whole team hope. But their defence is still a mess, Villarreal second goal was a clear proof of that (not to take anything away from Pedraza since it was a very nice goal). Huesca, on the other hand, lost on matchday 29, but it was an impressive game from them against Real Madrid where they probably deserved the draw that was so close. They can score goals, it's just their defensive side that lets them down usually. They play better than their result show and they need a win here, desperately, against fellow strugglers to have any chance to stay in La Liga since they are rock bottom and 8 points away from the saving place of 17th. Obviously, it's very very hard to achieve this, but if they win today, this dream still could be turned into reality. Any other result would make it basically mission impossible. So in conclusion, Celta win would take them 1 point clear from the relegation zone and for Huesca it's their last chance to have any hope to stay in the league next season as well. Basically a final and must-win for both teams. And considering that Celta with Aspas is capable of scoring against any opposition and Huesca is also good attacking wise + neither teams excel defensively I can see us witnessing at least 3 goals if not more and yet another emotional game. Pick: Over 2,5 goals @ 1,91 (Pinnacle) Whoever has access to Coolbet, a little bonus bet: Aspas to score anytime @ 2,67 (most other bookies have it just above 2 so plenty of value with these odds) Valencia - Real Madrid Valencia was second best team against a very good Sevilla side but still managed to steal a narrow win with Parejo once again deciding the game for Los Ches. But they still managed to create some very good chances and kept a clean sheet in a game where Sevilla really showed some attacking strength. Real played with a lot of substitute players and didn't impress at all, but managed to grab a win thanks to Benzema who has been really good this season in my opinion. Of course today all healthy first team players will be playing and we a different kind of Real, but I still feel that Valencia at home is capable of winning against Real Madrid side who are still searchig for their game plan and confidence. Zidane probably tried a few new things as well because they really don't have anything at stake (yeah I know, beating Atletico for the second place would be good, but its not the most important thing and i dont think they will place too much importance to this) while Valencia has everything to fight for regarding the last CL spot which is so close now. Pick: Valencia AH +0 @ 2,11 (Pinnacle)
  10. I'm not too good with long analyzes as Stevie here but will add my 2 cents: Sevilla - Valencia Very important match and the game of the round for me. Both teams are aiming for the Champions League place for next season and only 3 points difference between these two. Valencia should have made their life easier last round as they were clearly a superior team against Getafe, but they held on and got the draw from Valencia. Sevilla, on the other hand, got a bit lucky against Espanyol with a narrow 1-0 win - it was even-steven until they scored and after that most of the game was played in front of their goal and Espanyol had couple of very good chances to draw, but in the end Sevilla got the 3 points they desperately needed. Today I can see Valencia extending their 15 games unbeaten run and getting away with at least a draw. Sevilla has been on-off in the second half of the season and I definitely see value on Valencia side although Valencia straight win odds have dropped from 3,1 to 2,8 or so. If I had bigger cojones, would even suggest Valencia straight win but will go with a safer AH option. Pick: Valencia (0) @ 2,06 @ Pinnacle
  11. Girona - Bilbao In a hurry, but I think there is value in a draw here today. Both teams had good wins last round and will be trying to keep the momentum going. Home stadium is no edge for Girona usually since they are very poor at home and Bilbao can definately take a point here. Pick: Draw @ 2,98 (Pinnacle) I was actually thinking about goals as well since odds for Over 2,5 are around 2,7 or so and I do see it representing value IMO, but you never know with these 2 teams, especially since I think Bilbao defense has improved so will leave it as just a lean.
  12. Malta - Spain Spain has been playing well under Luis Enrique, although they finishing needs polishing, I do feel the Spaniards are in for a walk in the park as Malta is just so many classes below and Spain with their technical and creative players can show the home team football ABC even when they have an off day. And I think after a narrow win over Norway, Spain wants to get some samba football going and really enjoy the game. Weather is perfect for playing football and scoring some nice goals. Pretty sure the visitors will unlock Malta defence early on and cruise to a comfortable halftime lead. Pick: Spain -1,5 HT @ 1,77 (Pinnacle)
  13. Eintracht Frankfurt - Inter It very rarely happens that Frankfurt does not score at home, in fact this season it has not happened in Europe yet. They have scored several goals most of the games and I expect the same to continue here today. They also very rarely keep clean sheet, though. Germans are in good form. Inter on the other hand are not in a good shape. They lack confidence, have problems inside the squad (Icardi!) and Spalletti not doing very good work overall. Every once in a while a different Inter shows up and in that case they would be able to put up a good fight, but in any case, I can see goals in that match so will stay away from placing a bet on a winner. Over 2,5 @ 2 (SBO) Sevilla - Slavia Prague Not much to say here - Sevilla are the kings of this competition and I'm sure they will want to make things pretty clear in the first leg that is played at home. Not too familiar with Slavia, but there is obviously a difference in class and when Sevilla concentrates (which I believe they do) to get a good result here, they will manage to do so. Sevilla -1.25 AH @ 1,93 (Pinnacle)
  14. PSG - Man United Manchester United was clearly second best team 2 weeks ago at Old Trafford and I think it will be the same today. But Ole Gunnar seems to be really the kind of guy who will not give up and is not afraid to at least go out and try so I expect ManU to exit CL with style. After all, 1st leg game was very impotent from them so I think they will want at least show to Europe that they have more fire-power than they showed at home. That being said, PSG is currently just better as a team and individually as well. Visitors have a lot of injured players out of the game as well so it will be really hard. On top of that, PSG has Ligue 1 nicely wrapped up and I expect them to come out with a hunger to prove everybody that they can be a powerhouse in Europe as well and out-playing in a good form ManU in both legs will be a good first step. I can see ManU really trying hard to attack and score while PSG patiently looking for counter attacks and with Mbappe up front, scoring at least a few against a weakened ManU team. But ManU is always capable of scoring when they have to, so I hope to see an entertaining game with at least 3 goals scored, hopefully more though. Predicted score: 3-1 Over 3 goals @ 2,05 (Coolbet) PSG -1 @ 1,81 (SBO) Porto - Roma Looking latest results, one would not say that Roma is in a very bad shape (4 wins out of 5 game sinclusing 1st leg against Porto), but the reality is a bit different. There is tension is Roma camp and a lot of talks that EDF will get fired etc. Last week heavy defeat against arch-rivals Lazio was a big blow that any Roma player or fan is not able to swallow for a long time. Porto has a similar pattern in their latest form - good results in the league until last weekend where they lost an important game to Benfica. I'm not too familiar with Porto news, but I do expect them to dominate today's game and keep it tight at the back. Their home stadium is quite a fortress and I don't think Roma in current form and situation is in a shape to bring a good result from that kind of game. I expect Porto to dominate the game and qualify in a low scoring intense game. Predicted score: 1-0 Under 2,75 @ 2,14 (Asianodds) Porto to qualify @ 2,22 (Betsafe)
  15. Anybody knows whats up with Brescia - Crotone? League leaders at home vs relegation zone team @ 1,9 does not make sense unless there are some big missings from home team...?
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