Australian Open 2019

[aussietennisexpert]

pretty much finished now ..:O

[MrCrossover]

25 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

PCB is owning the kei. I don't think the kei will win a set.

Took your advice @ 2.1 odds. Looks good!

[CzechPunter]

Yeah, as unexpected as Pouille I'd say. Still, I can hardly complain. Edit: Kei has just broken back, so perhaps there's still a chance.

Naomi Osaka to beat Elina Svitolina at 1.73 with Paddy Power

Svitolina should've been long gone now and I fancy Osaka to set the record straight. Svitolina has been having all sorts of problems in her matches and her comebacks were successful only because her opponents weren't able to compete mentally, which Osaka will be.

[four-leaf]

Yay, the kei is back! So good to get the over 3.5 sets in.

[four-leaf]

Naomi Osaka to beat (-1.5 sets) Elina Svitolina at 2.75 with Unibet

Naomi has played three unconvincing three set matches but I think she'll beat Elina in two as she did 2016 when they met in Aussie open. Judging by the way Elina has been playing I think this goes easier for Naomi than what might be expected so I wouldn't rule out a straight sets win for Naomi.

[MrCrossover]

I was watching Svitolina vs Keys match, but didnt have a chance to see Osaka vs Sevastova. (only 2-3 games in the end)

In my opinion Sevastova and Svitolina are very similar players, just one is like Porsche, one is like Alfa Romeo, if you know what i mean. If Sevastova gave Osaka run for her money, i think Svitolina can do it even better.

I will back up Svitolina.

[darko08]

Petra Kvitova to beat Ashleigh Barty at 1.60 with 888

I was not sure what could happen in her match against Anisimova but finally she destroyed her. Now she has to face a player with a very different style but Petra leads the h2h 3-0. Barty is playing well but she suffered a lot against Sharapova who was absolutely bad with her serve (I don’t expect that from Petra).

[darko08]

Petra Kvitova to win AO at 4.50 with bet365

Petra plays against Barty tomorrow and if she wins she will face Collins or Pavlyuchenkova in the semifinal. If she reaches the final she will find there Serena (the h2h is 5-2 for Serena but Petra won against her in their last match in Cincinatti in 2018), Pliskova (Petra leads the h2h 3-1), Svitolina (Petra leads the h2h 7-2) or Osaka (no matches between them). Petra is playing her best tennis, she won in Sydney (beating Barty in the final) and now has won all her matches here in straight sets. 

[four-leaf]

5 hours ago, MrCrossover said:

I was watching Svitolina vs Keys match, but didnt have a chance to see Osaka vs Sevastova. (only 2-3 games in the end)

In my opinion Sevastova and Svitolina are very similar players, just one is like Porsche, one is like Alfa Romeo, if you know what i mean. If Sevastova gave Osaka run for her money, i think Svitolina can do it even better.

I will back up Svitolina.

I would be very careful about backing Elina here, she's doing lots of stupid errors and her serve is like an error machine. Madison Keys should have broken her in third set with her 10+ chances to break but when she failed she fell apart mentally. I don't think Naomi will do the same and Naomi is due a straight sets win after playing those three set matches.

[four-leaf]

I advice everyone to be cautious with the betting from now on. It's quarterfinals and all players in both mens and womens draw are all very good and it's more difficult to find a winning bet than at the beginning of the tournament so be cautious when selecting your bets.

[four-leaf]

Frances Tiafoe to beat (+8.5) Rafa Nadal at 1.86 with Unibet

Frances should have decent chances of covering this line. Rafa hasn't been tested so far and Frances can probably put up some resistance. First meeting between them to and Rafa will have to get some feeling about the way Frances is playing and it could lead to Rafa not having it so easy out there.

[South_African_Punter]

Yeah, I have little confidence in Svitolina. She's one of those types of players who usually wins multiple titles in smaller tournaments, but if my memory serves me correctly, does not have a Grand Slam pedigree. She's good enough to get to 3R/4R/QF but no further.

[aussietennisexpert]

I don't see Tsitispas winning this. might be worth a live bet

edit: 3 break points now. maybe too late for this set!

Edited January 22, 2019 by aussietennisexpert

[Simeon Borisof]

On 1/20/2019 at 4:07 PM, Simeon Borisof said:

Will Tsitsipas be able to repeat his performane from today against Agut?  I think he will. He looked rock solid both physically and mentaly. It is true that this day off will give some time for Agut to recover but he spent so much time on court and thats a great moment for The Greek to come on top. 1.72 with bet365

[Simeon Borisof]

Saying Nadal will not have easy time today, needing time to adjust to Tiafore game style because he has never faced him, leaves the feeling that Tiafore has already met Nadal and will have a ongoing strategy here... He made bunch  of unforced errors against Dimitrov and i think Nadal wont need that much to punish him -8.5 games @ 1.90 with bet365

Edited January 22, 2019 by Simeon Borisof

[darko08]

Watching Nadal and he looks unstoppable. The only player who can hurt him is Djokovic and maybe Raonic if he serves in the 100% of his capacity (i think he's gonna win against Pouille 3-0 or 3-1). Petra destroyed Barty (i expected Barty to played better but she was nervous) and now she will have "in theory" an easy match against Collins. I think Serena will win against Pliskova and i don't know what to expect about Svitolina-Osaka. I said at the start of the season that my thoughts were that this will be an amazing year for Svitolina but i got the feelings that Osaka is gonna win this (but i wouldn't be surprised if Svitolina wins).

[CzechPunter]

What? The final score of the championship is going to be Stefanos Tsitsipas d. Lucas Pouille 7-6 4-6 6-4 6-2! Seriously though, I think that Tsitsipas could take a set off Nadal, let's see what the odds are going to be.

[DrO]

Looks like skinny version of Petra Kvotova doing just fine  
Agree @CzechPunter?

[Simeon Borisof]

6 hours ago, Simeon Borisof said:

Saying Nadal will not have easy time today, needing time to adjust to Tiafore game style because he has never faced him, leaves the feeling that Tiafore has already met Nadal and will have a ongoing strategy here... He made bunch  of unforced errors against Dimitrov and i think Nadal wont need that much to punish him -8.5 games @ 1.90 with bet365

[CzechPunter]

@DrO Well, what can I say, she's proving me wrong in this regard, but I'm still pretty sure that there are going to be a few tournaments in which she's going to go out R1/R2 while complaining about not having enough energy .

[aussietennisexpert]

On 10/01/2019 at 9:30 PM, aussietennisexpert said:

After seeing her match today against Kerber Kvitova at 17 to win outright looks like a good bet. Although Kerber did look a bit tired 

Should’ve backed this up ha ha

[South_African_Punter]

1 hour ago, aussietennisexpert said:

Should’ve backed this up ha ha

Haha, I put a bet on Kvitova yesterday @5/1 thanks to @darko08. Was still fairly good odds, but obviously the odds have considerably shortened since she won against Barty, so not sure if it is worth it now.

[darko08]

Rafael Nadal (-6,5 Games) to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas at 2.00 with 888

Nadal started here with a bad match against Duckworth but since then he has played better and better in every round. He has not dropped any set and he has covered this line in all his matches. He has improved his serve and only Duckworth has break him in his first match here (his only bad match in this tournament). Tsitsipas is one of the biggest surprises here but I think that he still doesn’t have enough weapons to hurt the actual version of Nadal.

[Judeksi]

Djokovic (-7,5 games) to beat Nishikori at 2.10 with bet365

Nishikori can't have much energy left in his body after that gruelling 5-hour marathon match against PCB. Nishikori had to play couple long matches before that too (against Majchrzak and Karlovic), and I believe that will show in this match. Great odds on Djoker here IMO.

Edited January 22, 2019 by Judeksi

[four-leaf]

Milos Raonic to beat (-2.5 sets) Lucas Pouille at 2.12 with Unibet

I feel like there's gonna be three favourites winning in the last two quarterfinals and the semifinal between Rafa Nadal and Stefanos Tsitsipas. I honestly can't see how Lucas can grab a set off of Milos with the way Milos has been playing compared to Lucas himself. And the head-to-head between Lucas and Milos reads 3-0 Milos with only straight sets wins and one of them in Aussie open 2016. Milos has never had any troubles breaking down Lucas and I'd be mighty surprised if he could make this match last longer than three sets. A tie-break could be possible ofcourse but there I'd have Milos as 70 to 30 to win it. Milos is really playing some good tennis right now and is extremely hard to break down or to just get a break on his serve is a heavy task.

[ogii55]

I've got three bets for the next stage.

Nishikori (+2.5 sets) vs Nole at 2.11 Pinnacle

Djokovic didn't look so well against very tired Medvedev. He has problems chasing some balls, which is extremely rare to see. Kei is a real fighter. I was surprised how well he was feeling after 5 hours war against Careno-Busta. Few years ago he stunned Nole at US Open.

 

Nishikori vs Nole at 8.27 Pinnacle

A long shot, but Djokovic didn't look so dominant as he was in the second part of season 2018. He is a big tournaments player, but matches like the one with Medvedev, or the lost final from RBA in Doha are posing some questions.

 

Nadal to win the AO at 2.40-2.50 various bookies (Will Hill at 2.50)

Rafa looks so dominant here. His serve is great and he went way more easier to the semifinal than Nole. Tsitsipas's hype is going to an end. Not sure how he will do with Rafa's top spin and way better receiving game of the Spanish dude compared to Federer. RBA was exhausted after so many 5-setters. Rafa beat twice Tsitsipas in two sets last year. The other big favorite - Novak Djokovic will have to face tricky Nishikory and service machine Raonic, a match that could be 4 or 5 setter. I expect if Nole and Rafa reach the Nadal probably will be a light favorite, because of his way to the final. Also Rafa's serve looked improved as they worked with Carlos Moya on that.

 

 

 

[darko08]

Yep, im agree with have you said about Djokovic. He had some strange “disconnections” in his matches against Shapovalov and Medvedev. Nishikori is a warrior but looks like his game doesn’t work against Djokovic. The h2h is so dominant (15-2) and the last time he won against Nole was in 2014. I can’t put my confidence on him considering how he suffered against Majchrzak and PBC (who was in a very bad shape before coming here). I have seen some disconnections from Nole against Shapovalov and Medvedev but I also have seen some brilliant moments from him. About Nishikori I haven’t seen any brilliant moment from him so I can’t find any rational reason to think that he can hurt Djokovic. Anyway, maybe you’re right and Kei find some form in his match against Nole but I haven’t seen any sign to think that, let’s see.

[aussietennisexpert]

Djokovic was holding his lower back a lot too at the end of Medvedev match .. made me feel like he might have a minor injury 

[CzechPunter]

Petra Kvitova (-4.5) to beat Danielle Collins at 1.80 with Pinnacle

Skipping the Tsitsipas bet, I wanted to get evens for him to win a set. I am, however, going to back Kvitova to build on her run and beat Collins in a better fashion that she did in Brisbane. She's certainly improved since then and, most importantly, she's already been to Grand Slam SFs, which tend to come with a lot of pressure that isn't easy to deal with. If Collins drops her serve early on, this could be over very quickly.

[four-leaf]

56 minutes ago, eros said:

Pouille for sure will be a hard nut to crack, his serving is excellent and he looks quite confident to me, so I expect him at least 1 set to take.

Lucas Pouille (+2.5 Sets) @ 1.793 Pinnacle

3/10

 

His serving may be excellent but he's coming up against one of the best servers of this tournament whom he's 0-3 lifetime against and never has taken a set from. I don't know where that set is supposed to be taken away from Milos so I'm in very big doubt about your bet.