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NoFear reacted to harry_rag in (Betfair Premium Charge) How to check if you have used under 1500 markets on betfair without contacting them?
I'd go 1.01 that betting on correct scores in 10 different matches = 10 markets, though 10 scores in one game would be one market (unlike anytime goalscorer, where each player in the same game would be a different market). I'm pretty sure that someone playing at huge volumes in, say, win and place markets only on horse racing would not avoid the premium charge on the basis that they had only ever bet in 2 markets! If they met the profit/charges based criteria they would be hit with the premium charge.
Do you really think you're at risk of being hit by it on the basis of total charges generated being less than 20% of your gross profits and given that you have an allowance of £1,000 of premium charge that would have to be used up before they would look to charge you?
For most of us, I suspect we've long since gone through the 250 market barrier.
ps - scratch all the speculation. I've just signed into my account, clicked on premium charge and all of the information you could possibly want is there!
My lifetime summary tells me I've bet in over 7000 markets. my gross profit/loss (the latter) and how much commission I've paid. It also tells me how much of the £1,000 allowance I've got left (all of it). That should do you! Be interested to know if you're anywhere near to being hit by the PC.
NoFear reacted to ralphie7 in Quick System
Wolverhampton 08:55 KAYFAST WARRIOR.....1st..5/4
Todays Profit = + 12.50 pts
Current Years Profit 2021 = + 4.41 pts
(Years Profit 2020 = +17.50 pts.)
(Years Profit 2019 = + 287.87 pts.)
(Years Profit 2018 = + 90.52 pts.)
(Years Profit 2017 = - 73.44 pts.)
(Years Profit 2016 = + 437.86 pts.)
(Years Profit 2015 = + 18.52 pts.)
(Years Loss 2014 = - 30.20 pts.)
(Years Loss 2013 = - 105.06 pts.)
(Years Profit 2012 = +127.65 pts.)
(Years Loss 2011 = - 13.82 pts.)
(Years Profit 2010 = +166.01 pts.)
Bank = + 2818.81 pts.
Profit = + 2718.81 pts.
Current Winning Run = 3
NoFear reacted to Mindfulness in Serie A Predictions > Jan 5th & 6th
A couple of quick updates:
Genoa are on to their third manager of the season after recently appointing Davide Nicola. Perhaps it was not the right time for Thiago Motta as the club is in a serious dog fight and cannot really piss about with new fangled ideas like 7 man midfields or rush goalies. The board must have realised they are fighting for Serie A survival and need someone at the reigns with previous; Nicola kept Crotone in this division a few years ago and that was basically a football miracle. Will be interesting to see how they get on in the second half of the campaign.
Fiorentina have replaced Vincenzo Montella with Beppe Iachini. Iachini is underrated as a manger imo, he can perhaps be viewed as the Italian Sam Allardyce. Expect Fiorentina to win the Scudetto, Coppa Italia and perhaps Champions League before Iachini is speedily replaced with a more glamorous appointment such as Cheryl Cole, Naomi Campbell etc. etc.
NoFear reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > 21st December
Saturday is the last day of fixtures before Christmas and the 3 National League divisions play Boxing Day, Saturday 28th, New Year’s Day and Saturday 4th. The step 3 divisions have spread their fixtures across those dates.
As regards to previews there is a chance that Boxing Day tips will go up Sunday but chances are it will be Monday night. 28th tips will be be up Friday night but chances are it will be tips and no previews. New Year’s Day should be up Monday 30th at some point. Finally the 4th will most likely be up on the 3rd. Obviously a bit depends on when bookies price up but they should be up by those dates and of course they account for my plans over Christmas. Let’s hope we get some games on at the weekend and get a few quid for Christmas.
NoFear reacted to gruja in L1, L2, and Scottish Predictions > Dec 10th - 15th
While i aggree that Mansfield is completely clueless this season and they have squad to compete for playoffs at least, i dont see much value in home win and after all, its league two, super unpredictable. So when i have odds below 2.00 on two teams i find even strength, but for various reasons one perform better, i just stay away. I like your over 2.5, i am sure Mansfield will score at least once, so lets hope Crewe will score at least two times so both of your bets win!
BTW, Bradford is getting a lot of their players back from injuries and Reeves is also one of them, he already had man of the match display, so i think i will follow them closely in next few weeks untill bookies start to acknowledge that, especially at home.
NoFear reacted to Mindfulness in Serie A & B Predictions > Dec 13th - 16th
Brescia V Lecce
Lecce +0.50 AH @ 1.92 Bet365
This is a tough game to call between two competitive outfits but I feel the asian line has been set wrong and odds are too generous for the away side here.
First off, let's talk about Brescia. They're a team with some high quality individual players and on paper they should perhaps be doing better than their current league position suggests (19th). Despite their individual quality, Brescia do not create much going forward and have not scored many goals at this level thus far. Balotelli still looks dangerous and can score from out of nowhere, he will be a big threat for Lecce's keeper, Gabriel, who is a bit of a bungler and has not impressed me this season. But Super Mario aside, Brescia never really strike fear into opposition defences; this is reflected in Brescia's current ELO ratings which are very poor. The positive argument for Brescia is that they won at SPAL last week in a key relegation battle which should boost the spirit level of Eugenio Corini's side heading into the Lecce fixture. I feel the Biancazzurri can improve further as a team and they should be up for the fight here.
As for Lecce, they've suprised a few people this season, myself included. They currently sit 15th in the table and have had some very good results. Fabio Liverani looks to be an intelligent and shrewd coach, he knows how to get the best out of his players and their level of performance thus far is no fluke. Lecce are much more dangerous going forward than Brescia and again this is reflected in their ELO ratings. I feel Lecce can hurt Brescia in a number of ways in this game and frankly the current price on the away side is a bit silly all things considered.
The Brescia 0 line is currently around 1.50 while Lecce's 0 line is 2.75. This is far too big a disparity for me. The markets are basically saying "Well, Brescia haven't won at home yet and Lecce are the minnows of the division so there'll be a reversion to the mean here". It's true that this is a winnable game for Brescia and they are 'due a home win' but Lecce's attacking performances, ELO ratings and key goal metrics are all clearly superior.
This is a hard game to predict and I would not be suprised by any outcome, however, I simply cannot resist having a value bet on Lecce here as their attacking advantages are too good to ignore.
NoFear reacted to Torque in £100 to £10,000 Hunt (40% Complete)
Not in its original guise. I got a lot further with this than I expected and I'm happy with what I've made so far. It was getting progressively more difficult to find something to bet on each day that I liked the look of - probably because the further you get with something like this, the more loss-averse you become - and so I plan to try to hit the target by being very selective and only taking things that look as though they can't lose. Ultimately, when the loser comes I'll be happier having done it that way and I've already had a few close shaves on this thread and I'm almost certain if I'd carried on as I was I'd have hit a loser by now.
NoFear reacted to Fader in PDC World Championship
Just one for me tomorrow. Labanauskas to beat Matthew Edgar. These two actually met eachother last year in this event, in the 1st round. Lab won that match 3-1 and with a 10pt extra average. He is far more experienced and experience counts for alot up there for this kind of event. Each night is deafening.
6.5pts D.Labanauskas to beat M.Edgar 8/13 bet365
[ PDC World Championships ]
bets = 1/1 / bank = +3.5pts
NoFear reacted to Fader in PDC World Championship
Klaasen beat Burness 6-0 when they met in the past but one to swerve for me. I think Klaasen wins but he is so random it's unreal.
The one I do like tonight is Humphries to win. He faces Devon Petersen, who despite liking this kind of event, tends to fly hot and cold. It all started for Humphries here last year when he went on that little run. A run which involved beating Rob Cross. He is a real prospect and a player I rate highly. His 5 matches last year gives a combined average of 95 and although Devon actually did pretty well himself last year, his 4 matches at the Worlds have an average of 91.
Humphries is ranked higher and has beaten better opponents. He has already won the World Youth Championships with consistent scores in the mid 90s.
5pts L.Humphries to beat D.Peterson 7/10 betfair
NoFear reacted to froment in A pattern i observed
Your observation is totally correct, you are absolutely right!
You only need to pay a bit of attention to your words that I emphasized above. If you check, you will see for yourself that odds for under 5.5 if one goal is scored at HT, and under 4.5 if no goals at HT, are barely 1.05 or even less. And if you check this year games, not a dozen of today games, but thousands of this year games, you will find that usually 5 out of 100 such a matches go over 5.5 or over 4.5. So, if you bet 100 units each time, you will win 5 units 95 times, add or take two or three times, and lose 100 units 5 times, add or take two or three times. Now do the math, and you will see where does your system go.
Though, if you are able to select games, not to bet on all today games or all this year games, but to select matches so that you hot over 4.5 or over 5.5 less than (100-100/odds) out of 100 matches, where "odds" are average winning odds you get, after commission, then indeed you have a profitable system. So, all you need is to find such a matches.
NoFear reacted to Rey86 in Championship Predictions > Dec 10th & 11th
Leeds v Hull
looks like a btts and over 2.5 goal to me,despite Leeds has only 22% of their home games ending with over 2.5 goals
i believe that Hull,who is in the third POS on the last 8 matches table will score
but since both teams scoring and conceding mostly at SH i ll wait till HT to place my bet
if the score at HT is 0-0 i ll bet on over 1.5 goals
if there is a goal on FH,no matter which team scored it,i ll bet on btts and over 2.5
in any other scenario i wont place a bet
NoFear reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > December 10th
The Nap selection on Saturday landed with ease as Leiston hammered Redditch 6-0 and it was good to get Boreham Wood over the line as well. Slough should have been a winning bet as well as they had 20 shots to Braintree's 2 and yet could only score 1. There isn't much on this week, but I have a treble and a strong bet on Tuesday night.
Alvechurch v Coalville
Coalville are having a good season and were unlucky not to win on Saturday as only a late penalty gave Stourbridge a share of the points in a 1-1 draw. That means they have lost just twice in their last 10 games and they face a poor Alvechurch side who are really struggling this season after losing their manager to Stourbridge. They were well beaten by Lowestoft 4-0 on Saturday which made it 5 defeats on the bounce and they have conceded at least twice in all of them. They have only won 3 games all season and with Leiston looking set to climb the table they are going to be struggling to survive. In my view Coalville should be odds on so more than happy with the 11/10 with Bet365 and BetVictor.
All these 3 are home teams who look worth putting together in a treble which pays 3.2/1 with Marathon. Gosport host Dorchester who have been in awful form and they sacked their manager after losing yet again on Saturday. Truro are top of their league at the moment having lost just 3 times in 18 games. They host Merthyr and should be too strong for them. Tamworth look like they are walking away with their league and it should be another 3 points for them as they host Needham Market.
Coalville 3pts @ 11/10 with Bet365 and BetVictor
Gosport/Truro/Tamworth 1pt Treble @ 3.2/1 with Marathon
NoFear reacted to thfc in Premier League Predictions > Dec 7th - 9th
Surprised to see Crystal Palace above 3s for the Watford game. Watford are yet to win at home, and only have the one win all season. Still no manager either. Palace are well organised and I think they should be shorter for this game so I see some value in Palace at around 3.2. I know they have some personnel missing in defence, but they are playing Watford so hardly the most dangerous attacking team! Palace have also had an extra day of rest for this game.
Going to also tip spurs to win and both teams to score which can be had for 2.9 (coral). The reasoning being that spurs defence has been struggling, conceding 2 goals in all four games since Mourinho came in. I'm not entirely confident spurs will win and they are definitely not value at 1.4 to win outright. However, Burnley have wobbled in their last two games, and defensively seem to be struggling more than normal so if spurs do win I can't see it being to nil the way the team are playing.
And finally, going to give Aston Villa +1 a go at just below evens. Leicester aren't going to keep winning every game, and I think this is a tough game. Villa gave Liverpool a good game a couple of weeks back and were unlucky not to draw, and also got a deserved draw at Man U last weekend, though they were poor against Chelsea in midweek. Leicester were perhaps a bit lucky to beat Everton, and had to rely on a dodgy penalty and 95th minute goal to beat Watford so perhaps there are signs they aren't playing quite as well as results would suggest. I don't think it would be a surprise if this ended in a draw, or even if Aston Villa were to win, so i'm happy to lay Leicester in this game.
NoFear reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > November 16th
It has been a very profitable week with a money made last weekend and 3 out of the 4 bets winning in mid-week. Saturday I have 7 bets and a little unusually most of those are at Step 3.
Barnet v Stockport
After the first few games of the season I added Barnet to the list of ante-post bets as I thought they had looked promising early on. Ever since then they have been pretty poor and it sums the league up that despite that fact they are only 8 points of the top of the table. They have won just twice in their last 10 league games and they were against AFC Fylde and Chorley. The 3 draws in that spell weren't bad points, but if I was having an outright bet now it certainly wouldn't be them. It wouldn't be Stockport either, but after their horrid run of form where they lost 5 on the bounce, a run started with a 3-0 loss at Chorley, they have been in very good form on the whole. They have lost just one of their last 6 league games and are clearly back in decent form. They look over priced to me and I am happy to take a chance at 3/1.
Bradford Park Avenue v Leamington
I can't really work out why Bradford are the outsiders here because in my view the prices should be the other way round. With their former manager back in charge they look an improved side. They beat Hereford in his first game back and then I watched them in their 1-0 defeat to Gloucester where I saw enough to think they could well stay up. They then followed that up by conceding 7 without reply in defeats to Southport and Kettering, but they were much better again last week when they were 2-1 up with 7 minutes to go against Kings Lynn and ended up losing 3-2. Kings Lynn are a very good side though and Leamington are not and if they can take that performance into this I think they can pick up 3 points. Leamington have picked up just 1 point in their last 7 games and they have conceded a huge 22 goals in that spell. They even managed to concede 3 in the game they got their point in against Chester. Granted there isn't a great deal in it, but for me Bradford are looking the better side at the moment and with home advantage they certainly should not be over 2/1.
Brightlingsea Regent v Cray Wanderers (BetVictor Isthmian Premier League)
I don't get the price here either with Cray looking huge at 17/10. Cray have only lost 2 games in the league all season and they are unbeaten in their last 6. The two defeats were against Folkeston and Enfield so two of the best teams in the division. They go to a Brightlingsea side who have picked just 1 point in their last 8 games and that came against a poor Wingate & Finchley side. That was also the only game they didn't concede at least 2 goals in during the spell without a victory. Cray should be odds on for me and at 17/10 look the best bet of the weekend.
Cheshunt v Carshalton (BetVictor Isthmian Premier League)
3rd time in a week I am having a bet on a Carshalton game. In the end they had a bit too much for Frome in the FA Trophy on Tuesday night although it turned into a bit of a goalfest. They have drawn their last 5 league games, but they really ought to be able to beat a struggling Cheshunt side who have lost their last 6 league games conceding 19 in the process. League wise this is the easiest fixture they have had since before the run of draws and they really ought to get back to winning ways in the league.
East Thurrock United v Leatherhead (BetVictor Isthmian Premier League)
Granted Leatherhead have had a fairly kind fixture list of late in the league, but they did beat Hornchurch in the run of 5 victories. They look a much improved side and although East Thurrock are a good team and are doing well since their relegation, I think they are over priced at 16/5 to win this. My feeling is there isn't much between these two sides which is why the price is an attractive one from a value perspective.
Redditch v Hitchin (BetVictor Southern Premier Central)
Redditch have only won two league games this season with both coming over August Bank Holiday weekend. They have had a run of 8 league defeats on the bounce and Hitchin could well make it 9 on Saturday. Hitchin are only 5 points better off than their hosts, but they are in much better form. Bizarrely their only defeat in their last 6 league games was against Leiston, but they then went and defeated Coalville, the only team to have beaten them in their last 10 games. Redditch have only scored 3 goals in their last 8 games as well so there is every chance 1 will be all that is needed to give Hitchin the 3 points.
Nuneaton v Stratford (BetVictor Southern Premier Central) & Bognor Regis v Merstham (BetVictor Isthmian Premier League)
More than happy to carry on opposing Stratford as I have done twice of late including last Saturday. Nuneaton are looking pretty good at the moment and have won 6 of their 9 home league games, indeed it is away from home where they have struggled. They ought to win as should Bognor who host Merstham. Bognor looked hopeless earlier in the season, but they have now won 6 of their last 7 league games including a 6-1 hammering of Margate on Tuesday night. Merstham look a poor side this season and have lost 8 of their last 9 games including the last 6. It really should be a home win and to get over 2/1 about the both Nuneaton and Bognor winning looks a good price to me.
Stockport 1pt @ 61/20 with Marathon
Bradford Park Avenue 1pt @ 21/10 with William Hill and BetVictor
Cray Wanderers 3pts @ 17/10 with Bet365
Carshalton 2pts @ 13/10 with Bet365
Leatherhead 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365
Hitchin 1pt @ 6/4 with Bet365
Nuneaton/Bognor Regis 2pts @ 2/1 with Marathon
NoFear reacted to cluelessG in Premier League Predictions > Nov 8th - 10th
The Hammers are missing their best player - Fabianski. Antonio is out too, he's a hard-working player and they need him badly against teams like Burnley. They have been struggling to find a reliable player at left back. So, today they have some challenges in these positions.
I believe this match go can either way, Burnley should be favourites and odds are probably just about right. I'd recommend to watch the first 15 minutes of the game and then place a bet, depending on how motivated the teams are.