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Morning all 👋🏼 Best of luck today 🐎💷 Two plays for me...

Stratford 2.28 Fast Deal 66/1ew bet365

Ok here's my leans on tomorrow's final matches.. Maybe you guys can chime in with your opinions or if you agree with anything. Rouen: Stephens for me. I was leaning towards Linette in the semi-finals as a dog, but I've seen some of Stephens earlier in the tournament, and I knew that I would probably not go against her for the duration of the tournament. Now that she is in the finals.. that logic still holds. I am not tempted to bet her much, but I will include her in some parlay potentially for lower stakes. Munich: I saw Fritz in the quarterfinals, and he was playing extremely well. I had backed him to beat Garin, and I imagine this was a comfortable win. I do think Struff is tougher competition especially on home soil, but I am still leaning Fritz to win the match with low confidence. Bucharest: I have not watched these matches, but I know that Fucsovics and Navone have both been dominating. It feels like a home tournament for Marton. I wonder if Navone has run out of gas but his clay court runs have been impressive. He is clearly skilled, and is a nice competitor. I have lean with Fucsovics low confidence. Stuttgart: I have backed Kostyuk in the quarterfinals, and liked her odds in R16 also vs Zheng.. This has been my primary tournament of focus, and wrote extensive analysis in another forum regarding the court conditions in Stuttgart favoring taller players. That proved true in the semi-finals when both underdogs won at nice odds. I predicted Vondrousova to beat Kostyuk there, but was lucky enough to stay away from betting Marketa. I have lean on Rybakina to win the match with low confidence. Barcelona: One of the few European cities I've visited, and had a great time. I have watched some of these matches but not either of the semi-finals. I have sneaky feeling that Ruud would like some revenge clearly from Monte Carlo Final. This is not match I feel good about betting, and have no real opinion as to who will win.. I do think this is the most exciting match out of the five tournaments, and would love to have a bet. Unfortunately, it feels like I'm doomed to lose with whoever I select. ☝️

very weak performances from Carter and Anda over the last few days. Brecel was a weird one. It looks to be an open tournament this year, so far.

Wish I bet on Anderson now but atleast that’s a 20/1 winner for making the final

Thank you mr lee will do see you Thursday 🍺🍺on me👍

Excellent analysis guys! Swiatek is definitely overhyped against players that can hit big - not many out there, and she tends to have an incredibly easy time against the rest, but it's always worth considering going against her in those specific cases.

Agree about Stephens - I backed her for the tournament a couple of rounds back and she looks dialled-in which is a rare sight. Although saying that, she's currently playing a sloppy 2nd set against Linette after flaming through the 1st and the match is set to go the distance. Who knows what happens then but it's fair to say Linette is the more consistent and reliable player so my hopes won't be high. Munich is done and Struff got the win. Typical Struff really - every now and then he goes on a tear-up and this week was one of those weeks. As you said, home conditions helped him and what also helped is he's more comfortable on clay than Fritz is - although the American is definitely improving on the surface. Bucharest final has started and I'd have backed Navone as the younger, hungrier player - which would have been a mistake as he's just lost in straights. Maybe it's like you said and Navone ran out of gas. Stuttgart is also done and Rybakina was an easy winner. I'd have backed her which would have been an easy decision to make after she outlasted Swiatek. As much as Rybakina's levels can fluctuate, having just beaten the best clay player in the world and beaten her pretty well and with this being a final it was hard to see her not playing well and that proved to be the case. As an aside, I didn't like the look of Swiatek at all this week but she'll still be a big favourite for RG and so there could be some good prices elsewhere. Increasingly it looks to me that she struggles when put under pressure, which seems to be happening more than it used to - as though the other players have figured out how to play her. When you steamroll through match after match you lack the practice of dealing with tight matches and that's also a factor in Swiatek looking panicky when it's not a procession for her. Barcelona final has just started and Tsitsipas has an early break. I'm on him to win the tournament but it's far too early to say that's a done deal. I'll be surprised if there isn't more than two sets and I think there'll be plenty of fluctuations as nerves play a part. Tsitsipas is 0-10 in finals like these and Ruud has never won a tournament at this level.

Sometimes it's just not your day. And when you hear Brecel saying he was ill and then that he didn't like the attention that came with being World Champion and then comments about being glad he's lost so the spotlight is off him, you know it was never going to be your day. It was interesting when he spoke about being ill where he said he probably would have pulled out at another tournament, but because this is such a big tournament he felt he had to play. Apparently though it's not big enough to try to overturn one snooker in a deciding frame.

B/Fwd L15's -65.52 RC P/L -89.92 (incl L15's) Had 3 goes on the Daily (feel as if I'm competing volume-wise with @LEE-GRAYS = 4.50 pts 6.15 Muss Street Kid 0.75 ew at 6/1 & Toimy Son 0.75 ew at 15/2 (comes a long way for this race) Tried to get 11/2 for Bell Shot in the 4.45 Muss for an ew nap but price was stuck at 5/1 so no official bet = 6 points staked today

I am copying my report on WTA Stuttgart that I mentioned. I think it might be helpful in the years to come if the tournament doesn't change.. The strategy would have proved very effective allowing for an easy upset bet of Swiatek at the large odds offered. I thought surely Czech Punter might take some interest. I actually saved money using the strategy because I was really confident that Vondrousova was going to win, and I matched her up with Swiatek in the finals which was another mistake. I avoided losing any money on both of them because in the back of my head.. I knew about the tournament conditions, and it just wasn't worth a punt. (Particularly on Marketa Vondrousova) I wasn't very interested betting Iga at like -400. But, I nearly had them paired up together in a parlay. Would have been a double whammy. There is some evidence about the the(WTA Stuttgart) tournament favoring taller players. The tournament has been played on Indoor clay since 2009, and before that was Indoor hard 1978-2008. I believe the indoor hard court tournament could have played at a similar speed, and the tournament is just designed in this way by German Organization. It's always a nice tournament in my opinion, and you typically get the best female players going there. I would compare it to Monte Carlo.. The first huge clay event of the year. So here is the past winners that I noted, and alot of these are the big hitters and taller women. I won't name all the winners who don't qualify, but I did notice a pattern. Julia Goerges won in 2011. She is 5'11 height. Maria Sharapova won the tournament three times in a row 2012-2014. Pliskova 2018 Kvitova 2019 (Additional taller players who made the finals since 2009. Sabalenka three times, Coco Vandeweghe, Mladenovic, Wozniacki, Ivanovic, and Dinara Safina).

Keeneland : 9.44 MISSED THE CUT 9/2 2nd 5/1 , split both of Charlie Appleby's horses with Silver Knott winning at 7/1 & a poor Dettori ride seeing the 2/5 favourite Bold Act finish 3rd . 10.16 KINGSBARNS 2/1 1st 15/8 , cracking ride from Saez , horse won well by 4/5 lengths 👍 Prices bet365 with b.o.g.

Won, profit £ 48 Monthly profit £ 204.96

To be flippant, who’s tipped a horse on here when I’ve got a freebie or offer to utilise! But, for some people maybe tipster selections/naps can be a positive or negative signals as part of a selection process. Then there’s spread betting prices, something I suspect hardly any racing punters would pay any heed to. Probably a red herring as my gut feel is they wouldn’t be of much use for that sport, but they’re hugely predictive for me in betting on goal and tryscorers so, if I was ever going to take a proper tilt at betting on racing I’d want to explore that angle if only to eliminate it

Typically I forgot to post this selection on here so I won't record it but posting to show I do know what I'm actually doing re football 🤣🤦🏼‍♂️. Should have gone home wins & over 2.5 however...

Luckily my football treble has saved the day and won back the losses from the horses with a tiny bit of profit on top. Wish I'd gone home wins and over 2.5 though 🤣🤦🏼‍♂️...

Ross Smith leading a charmed life today 😅

I’ve just done a post slating Ross Smith and he has the big balls to make final. Fair play

Well done mr faint keeping the Thurrock flag flying time me and @Carole-dawney got our fingers out 🍺🍺 on you Thursday 👍

The distance angle depends on the age of a horse. EG this time of year most of last years 2yo horses are stepping up in distance, but lets say you have a moderate 5 year old that has never won over the distance that is stepping up in trip it is usually a desperate attempt by the trainer to try something new, we see this at all levels including group races. With speed figures you basically have 2 choices 1. Use the pure figure or 2. Try to chip away using a list of criteria that you have to decide which one to back in a tight handicap. Big problem i have identified is that you can end up with too many variables thus end up throwing the baby out with the bath water. Think of all the variables/considerations you can come up with and list them to see what i mean and then post them on here. Others will quickly point out which ones you missed off your list.

Just a reminder Mc you owe me 2 points for the scratches this month which you haven’t adjusted yet . Thx again 😀

Oh i doubt there will be anything i would/could contribute to help you along your path, but you've given me a good chuckle that you thought i could. It just goes to show what i know, i assumed (wrongly) that any speed rating on a horse would have to be at the distance it was racing at, first and foremost. Thinking as i type and have just had a winner in the 515, (yippee) i use an example of the poor horses that are not quite sprinters, 5/6f, and can't last a mile, but excel over 7f and as far as i know, there are no classic's or decent races over that distance. (sorry if i'm wrong on that) To me, taking speed figures from 6f races and 8f races when their best distance is 7f, just seems strange. What i've just said is just an example of course and not explained very well, but i hope you get what i'm getting at? Seems to be coming along anyway and you've already had a few winners from it, just think how good it will be when you have all your facts and figures input into it...will be a gold mine!!!

Tramore 5.20 GUA DU LARGE 12/5 £20 win BETMGM 20% boost

dark viper 5.00

I don't profess to be an expert on speed figures, I am learning as I go along. Feel free to ask any questions you thing of, it will probably help me to look at aspects I haven't considered. At the moment I am only using data for the current season and the previous season and I am limiting my comparison to the going, I am not taking the distance into account, that will be the next stage. Giselles Izzy achieved its top rating on GF at Carlisle over 6 furlongs. Its best rating on GS was last June when it won a 15 runner handicap over 6 furlongs. All of its last 30 runs have been over 6 or 7 furlongs so perhaps the fact it was over 5 today explains the 28/1 odds. I'm not sure which has the biggest impact on performance, going or distance. Hopefully my analysis will point me in the right direction. Previous work I've done indicates that the impact is overstated, we will see.

2pts e/w 6.45 Muss- ZARZYNI 10/1

2nd. + £1. +.£34

122 W Wavering Down 5/1 Goes well fresh. Trainer jock. combo 2/4 here last four seasons with huge lsp+24 1.57 W Lutinebella 14/1 a quiet ew shout Goes terribly well fresh 2121 OBrien and Brace are 3/9 here last 4 seasons, albeit lsp +1.73 Its speed figures when compared to market leaders aren't great but not the worst and it's on a handy mark.

Not sure how your situated with betting companies, but Hills release a free bet after you put on a 1st round leader bet.

+.45 .1 ew L15

Day 107 +£10

Day 106 +£10

Thanks Minella, bit of a kick to the gut when Hoge dropped 2 shots on the last 2 holes. Never mind, got to keep faith.

Strat 323 Deerstalker 11/2 £10 ew bet365 4pl.

This is starting to get ridiculous indeed lol. It's all about The JBS System, yes that's right, "The Just Back Scheffler System" haha. All joking aside, some good chances to dethrone him here with Aberg, Morikawa, Cantlay and Hoge all nicely poised for @tonythepaint , @fd1972uk and yer dad. So keeping my fingers crossed for you all lads. 🤞

Scheffler needs to start thinking about his new kid, instead of sweeping up every golf tournie. Not be long till he's going odds on to win tournies. Hope his kid has him up till all hours, lol.

My gast is flabbered! What the bloody hell was that performance?! That's one qualifier through so let's see how close I get to my target of 5 or 6:-) Maguire/Jones's/Pang & Lyu/Lisowski/Day/Bingham all with good chances. *edit* I forgot about O'Connor who should finish off the job from 7-2 but we all know what Selby can do!

-526 515 M Bohemian Breeze place 7/2 545 M Individualism 13/8 €20 double

No words for that from Brecel. Both the shots played and missed during the collapse at the end and then throwing in the towel with one snooker needed.

Musselburgh 17.15 Destinado 10/1 betfair

5th. Returns. £60. + £33

Scottish National - w'ellhaveyawan 33/1 ew

Newbury 17:00 - Qaasid 33/1 betvictor

Thirsk 6.35 Gulliver 9/2 WH

Yeah, I'm not that keen on her today, although I'm not sure why the odds have moved *so much* against her.

Czech Her Out 3.00 Ayr 25/1 bet365

225 Ayr champion hurdle Favour and fortune. 9.0 11/2 First street. 8.9 12.0 Betfair These two are a bit clear clear of rest ...I'll try 5pt wins both 😁

Kristina Mladenovic to beat Varvara Lepchenko at 2.50 with Bet365 I'd be quite surprised not to see these odds drop come morning. Mladenovic has finally got a couple of results together, and she looked well above her struggles against Sebov. I didn't see her against Jones, but it's a big win on paper, and I don't see where this favoritism for Lepchenko is coming from.