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Had a bit of a shocker yesterday ....... lost by half a point in the PL Cup Final, my Nap of the Day lost, my selections in the £20 thread lost, all 3 of my football bets lost including a big stake double scuppered by the Welsh injury time equaliser. So it's time for a change Chuck out the short priced favourites, chuck out the all weather speed ratings and time to look for some EW shots in handicaps I'm looking at the 3 decent handicap chases at Carlisle this afternoon hoping they all run so I get 3 places in each race So I'm not even looking at any horse in single figure odds ...... just anything 10/1 and above . Giving them ticks based on Suitability of track/trip/ground - class and hcap mark - yard form - horse's current form Now obviously there's going to be some doubts about all of them or they wouldn't be double figure odds ...... but here's what I think are the most likely of the bigger priced runners to be involved in the finish Carlisle 2.25 - Getaway Luv - EW 12/1 bet365 - main doubt here is track & going but he has won RH and has won over a longer trip on Soft so hopefully he'll get the shorter trip on Heavy 3.35 - Uptown Harry - EW 11/1 bet365 - mostly ticks here apart from Yard Form, but it's not desperately bad 4.45 - Skyhill - EW 14/1 bet365 - bit trickier here because all the double figure priced horses have a couple of doubts over them. With Skyhill he usually runs in worse races than this but the conditions look OK and he's in decent form

Getaway Luv finished 5th ........ probably wasn't going to place but was badly hampered at the last fence when a horse fell in front of him and he had no chance after that Uptown Harry won 12/1 - makes it a good day ! Fortuntely this was the one I put up as my Nap of the Day (and To Win not EW) Skyhill unplaced .... finished midfield, never really in it Both the races my selection didn't win were won by one of the other horses on my short list (ie horses over 10/1)

Ching won very easily at Sha Tin. Limerick 3.25 Grandero Bello Win Has a very good chance of reversing form here with the devilscoachman. Just two lengths behind in third when they met in a beginner's chase with Churchtown warrior also ahead. They raced off levels that day which means they are both better off today with Grandero reduced by 12 pounds and thedevilscoachman by just six. That's a massive pull in favour of Grandero. Has come on in leaps and bounds since winning maiden hurdle last year. Also a winning pointer so now will relish the three miles over fences. Just beaten in a battle with Bronn recently. form franked at Cheltenham with Bronn's third to the real whacker and Gerri columbe before routing a big field latest including mac's charm.

Exeter 3.52 copperhead 14/1 1pt EW (4 places) Old favourite of mine, low mark and hoping step up in distance can revive some of the old spark. Tizzard had a couple of winners yesterday Good luck ?

3rd. Returns £30. + £656.50. 2023. + £1203.26.

Bianca Vanessa Andreescu to beat (-1.5 sets) Sonya Kenin at 2.32 with Unibet I'm on Bianca tonight because she's been quite reasonable with her game this week and it seems to work for here. I even think she's won Miami before in 2019 or if it was Indian Wells, don't remember but anyway she's got 3 straight 2-0 victories in this matchup. I know Kenin has some connections to Miami being there already at 6 years old and being walked around by Kim Clijsters and saying hello to Andy Roddick. She also wanted to get a haircut at the venue as she told Kim but that was another story. However Bianca is ranked 32 right now and Kenin has made progress with her game but she even lost 2-0 before to Bianca in Miami and the other two times was in Toronto and a smaller ITF. Kenin isn't there yet to challenge Bianca who did well enough by taking out Sakkari to be able to take out Sonya in straights again. So I think this 2.32 price should be taken. Depending on how the match evolves there might be some higher odds to come by in-play but I'm just not gonna sit and wait for that to happen. BTW doesn't Andreescu sound romanian? Varvara Gracheva to beat (-1.5 sets) Magdalena Frech at 1.94 with Unibet Varvara has it in her to progress further in this tournament. I don't expect her to win by numbers like 6-2 again because Ons Jabeur is playing much worse than Magdalena is right now. Ons just isn't top 10 quality anymore, not even top 50 to be honest. Varvara however is going forward and has the game to keep playing good enough again to get by Magdalena in straights. Magdalena had some difficulties for a set with Erika Andreeva and it doesn't look good ahead of this matchup so it's gonna be very risky to go against Varvara in this match, even going for Magdalena to take a set could be highly risky. I might be reluctant to take Varvara to cover -4.5 games handicap because like I've said I can't expect Magdalena to play as bad as Ons did and being completely run over tonight since I think there is a chance she'll cover 4.5 games. Even if it gets tight with some tie-break Varvara hasn't shown anything lately suggesting that she would lose a breaker to her polish counterpart. What Varvara does on court now is equal to an inform player in the top 30. Double at 4.50 with Unibet Surely should be other bookies like Pinnacle or so outthere offering slightly improved price so go for other bookies if you guys like but I'm gonna stick with my bookie on this one. I don't even like Pinnacle that much because of their turnover requirement of 3 times the deposit. Back this tonight and it might give a chance for a happy day.

Lim 2.15 Deeply Superficial 9/4 Lim 3.25 Thedevilscoachman 10/11 Exe 3.17 Stanley Stanley 8/1 Exe 3.52 Revels Hill 13/8 20p win lucky 15 £3

Today's match is ENGLAND v UKRAINE England, BTTS and over 3 goals is 7/2

Going to have a 1 point treble on the ryan Moore rides at naas at about 10/1ish

Sha Tin 8.10 Airiel Galvanic Both win. Galvanic staying on all three runs and seemingly crying out for this step up in trip. Should be seen to much better effect given more time to mount a late finish.

Congratulations Carole-dawney, well done Trotter! ?

A very close final Congratulations to the winner @Carole-dawneyand well done to the runner-up @Trotter

Carlisle 300 Esme shelby 335 fever roque 410 piaff bubbles 445 creative control Exeter 207 keppage 317 yaknow urself / merry mistress 352 revels hill To bsp

With the decision of BET365 to only offer BOG from 8am on the day of the race I think it is worth discussing the impact this has on the Naps Competition. I think this now means that none of the bookies that we use offer BOG the night before racing. I think it is important that the competition is as realistic as possible. A suggestion is that if the nap is chosen before 9am then BOG does not apply. If after 9am then BOG does apply. Comments ?

Looks like a winning bet, what you gonna buy with your winnings?

Double 3.52.Exet. Poppa Poutine 9/1 unpl 4.45.Carl. Bretney 5/1 unpl singles & double stk. 6.00 rtn 152.00 Good luck all.

Exeter 3.52 COOLVALLA 7/1 £10 EW SKY 4 places SP I think I'm in a competition with @Trotter to see who can make the biggest loss ! Currently -£202.26 Good job @Nigwilliam's profits are covering our losses

England to win, England >2.5 goals and Saka >1.5 SoT at 4/1 About time I had a tilt at slightly bigger odds! This is a maximum stake bet for me, that maximum stake being 10p!

3:17 Exeter -River Tyne 7/2 3:35 Carlisle - If Not For Dylan 13/2 3:52 Exeter - Young Bull 9/2 4:45 Carlisle - Court At Slip 17/2

Odds on selection Exeter 4.27 Viroflay 0.91

3.35 Carl - Uptown Harry - win at 11/1 bet365

Carlisle. Single. 5.18. Reggae De Baune 13/2 stk 5.00 rtn 37.50. V.Williams. Exeter. Double. 2.42. Victtorino 3/1 4th 3.17. Stanley Stanley 9/2 unpl singles & double. stk.6.00 rtn 63.00 Good luck all

3-35 Carlisle uptown harry 14/1 365 ew

Second and third. ?

RESULTS UPDATE A very good day for me with 7 winners and two win doubles. This was even after indulging in the Meyden meeting and the crazy Irish Lincoln. My profit on the day was 37.21 points. This makes my MTD +47.62 which has brought my YTD down to -47.65. So much racing on one day. Billy The Kid produced the double for me. Just two meetings in the UK tomorrow, why don't they spread it out? I was much happier with my approach today so I will try to follow this in the future

Doubles. 3.15.Ling. Alta Comedia 6/1 unpl 7.00. Wolv. Jilly Cooper 5/1 singles & double stk.6.00 rtn 118.00. Double. 4.00. Winc. Rewired 3/1 unpl 8.30. Wolv. Win Win Power 3/1 stk.6.00 rtn 53.00. Good luck all.

Van De Zandschulp @3.9 vs. Ruud Going against Ruud here, he is not playing his best tennis lately and H2H in favour of Van De Zandschulp 2-1, with one on hard court won 3-1 by Botic at the USO 2021. I take also Van De Zandschulp + 1,5 sets @2.1

Your right, its not very clear, kind of hidden away but no surprise.

Should place hopefully we'll done again.

Starts tomorrow, going for some of the fancied ones:- Nick Bachem 66/1 bet365 ew 8 places 1/5 - Been playing well recently, drives the ball very nicely. Thriston Lawrence 25/1 bet365 ew 8 places 1/5 - 8th last year, in solid form 19-2-9-8-13 Wilco Nienaber 25/1 bet365 ew 8 places 1/5 - 10th last year in good recent form.

Well.done

Looks pretty easy so far for England. As they have gone 2 - 0 up, Bet365 have settled my bet already. For tomorrow...

Decisions, decisions! Did have a £2 freebie with Hills to use up that I stuck on same thing but with >2.5 cards added. At least I was matched just before the off on Saka anytime at 3.45.

Take a bow JR. Superb tipping finding the winner Nick Bachem at 66/1. Excellent work.

Bet 28. Over 1.5 goals between Slovenia and San Marino @ 1.05

i thought the clocks went forward, not back 16.20 naas 26/3 Zola Sakura bet365 10/1

visualisation 4.20

With the decision by BET365 to no longer offer BOG the night before the race I will close this thread as that was one of the main criteria. The basic assumption proved correct in that BOG beat SP by 7%. Unfortunately in this period the returns at SP were a lot lower than has been the case historically at -15%. I am still determined to show that profits can be made with odds on favourites !

Have no interest at all in women rugby but odds look good to me considering France are 1/100 to win the match!

Day 4 Naas 2.00 Safari Quest 20/1 4pl Naas 3.10 Crystal Black 10/1 4pl Naas 4.20 Zola Sakura 11/1 Naas 4.55 Hey Whatever 16/1 potential returns £6,229.81

Cheval valient again tacked across field and built up a big lead. run down on the line to be second. Photo for third involved seasons wit. 1015 Ching Win Eased down last time when winning readily. Hard to oppose turned out quickly. Atomic Beauty Each way An enigma. Won first two races as a juvenile for Ger Lyons winning a maiden stakes and a Group two. Beating Stone Age and point Gellibrand in the process. Saddled with mark of 104 and struggled since. Now running off career low mark in low sixties, but hasn't placed since. Was known then as Atomic Jones.

Day 8 will update day 7 still got one to run might do another in France later

9.40 Sha tin Seasons wit Caught a flyer here last timevand will go close. While cheval valient pulled clear of the field and maintaining a huge lead last time. Watching brief but both of these should figure here....

Sha tin 8.40 Owners' Praise win Without Indigenous Realm @ 11/8 For exact same reasons as previous selection. Steps up in trip here and has help from champion jockey.

One last punt and that's 15 points on Young to win the whole thing at 5.21 on the exchanges. Regardless of who wins this, I'd say that the whole way through the favourites have been overpriced.

Great write up brigadier, mr incredible caught my eye as a dour stayer on his Warwick run and will probably get my bet . Best of luck gaz

Thanks trotter better luck next time! And thanks MCClarke.

123b shuil ceoil ew 66/1 bet365

Blow your wad 13:30 @ Newbury 15/2 william hill