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Newcastle 5.30 Lord Protector 22/1 Down the weights and down in grade. Form nothing to shout about but worth a small bet.

Bit of a lull in winners at the moment but I've said that before and then had runs of 8 and 10 winners lol so gotta be patient 437 newb Pachacuti 457 10/1. Holokea 452. 8/1 2 x 5pt Ew

And let's add these for a bit more fun: Newcastle 5.00 KEEP ME STABLE @ 5/1 (hills) Newcastle 7.30 HOCK EYE THE NOO @ 15/2 (generally) Yes, interest wins over boredom every time.

Good afternoon all. Only jumps runner I had lined up today is a non runner so no jumps bets for me today, taking a stab at one race from Newcastle tonight: Newcastle 7.00 FARENHEIT SEVEN @ 12/1 (b365/betfred) (rev. f/cst with Ventura Express) VENTURA EXPRESS @ 8/1 (general) Selection must prove fitness after a break but has gone fairly well before fresh, is also up in class so clearly needs a PB but who knows. Ventura Express is a solid old warrior with a very good claimer on board, at least puts small interest in tonight. Good luck anyone having a bet today.

In simple terms your question is do you take the odds into account. In my case the answer is yes as generally speaking, the higher the odds the higher the chance of losing. Specific to your question, I would rather back in-play at lower odds than before the start at higher. Having said that though, there's plenty of times where I back at higher odds but I protect myself from the higher chance of losing by staking less. What I also try to do is assess how much any bet is 'worth it' so that's to say that there are times where I think 2 to 1 against for example offers only slight value compared to another 2 to 1 shot which I reckon is a really good bet. To simplify, I try to take into account the price and how much I think that price is worth it and that means that it's not simply the case that the lower the odds the more I'll stake. What I stake also accounts for how good I think a bet is. Sometimes I'm right, many other times I'm wrong but overall it seems to work for me.

All favorites to win Davidovich Fokina vs. Struff JL. 1.53 2.45 Sonego vs. Navone 1.5 2.54 Paolini vs. Sramkova 1.53 2.45 Ruse E. vs. Frech 1.9 1.9 Gauff C. vs. Kenin S. 1.42 2.8 Fernandez. vs. Parks. 1.53 2.45 A few matches look very close. I feel that Collins is just going through the motions. Had such a good year last year that, with her current ranking, gets at least $800K just to show up for 20 weeks of the year.. Win a couple of matches, and do some endoresment deals and you are making 2.5 3Million as a farewell. Nice year I think Cirstea runs her close, maybe even wins. I don't think the motivation from Collins is high. This is a freeroll because next years ranking means nothing to Collins. Ruse is way better than her ranking. If she can stay healthy she can have a great year. Frech is very similar in style to (Linette, Haddad Mia, Kenin, Tomova etc). She is good retriever, but has no real weapons. I expect something like 6-4 6-3 here. I do like Fernandez to win here. SHe actually has a decent game, if a little lacking in power. Her biggest problem is that bigger opponents hit her off the court (see Anisimova, Keys, Rybakina, Yastremska, Sabalenka). But I don't think Parks can do that her, and this matchup should suite the finesse of Fernandez. I'm not crazy about backing players that have a very rigid style. Garcia, Ostapenko, Yastremka, Osaka. Gonna hit the cover off the ball and go for everything. If it does not work I'll try it again next week. The Osaka v Samsonova match could be close. My feeling is that Gauff just has too much athletic ability and class for Kenin. Can Kenin beat her? NO. Can she beat herself? Absolutely. But Gauff at 75% has too much here. At 100% she wins easily. This is a weird mismatch, and I think Kenin just gets overpowered. The last one that seems closer to me than the odds suggest is Jabeur v SIniakova. I think Siniakova has a decent game, and can run Jabeur close here. I don't think these slow courts help her that much. I'll look at these games and maybe take an in-play bet or two if it looks like the fav is struggling.

Maybe now he’s added a second at 17/1!

I find some success with kind of the opposite, betting a fav pick after say they gone a break or even set down. Bigger price and can risk less.

5.00. Newcastle.yorkstone.3/1 7.00. Bergerac 11/4. Singles and doubles..Will also add prince of pillow as a saver and add to the double with yorkstone.

Fancied bhatia as did my dad, then just noticed he pulled out. Opting against schauffelle, so he'll probably win now, lol. I've went with lowry and theegala. Dad has went straka, will see if I can see him before it starts for a bhatia replacement.

Morata for Spain at 3.7 the only bet so far, few requests up, still looking at the remaining games.

You are buying the beers ? lol.

It's bit like the investing saying relating to "time in the market versus timing the market". Trying to guess what will happen (will the player go a break up or down, will the game stay with serve quite deep) and trying to guess what the price will look like in the given scenario. Not a concrete rule but a general one for me; never bet in running. Find your bets before the off where you can identify value at your leisure and triple check your maths. In play it's like keeping plates spinning and far harder to asses an ever changing fair price. I appreciate my betting markets are different to tennis (e.g. anytime goalscorers) but it's still a principle I'd follow if I bet on tennis. Far harder to assess a fair price in play, far easier to balls it up, far more likely to get picked off by someone sharper than you with a better live feed.

A bit of development here Hovland who was 55/1 this morning is out to 90/1 as i type he does not tee off until 545 so not sure whats going on there. worth a quid i think at that price for starters. Lets hope he can put in a few steady rounds which he will need to do leading up to the masters.

@MCLARKE

1 winner 1 place money back

Bet365

Bit of observation i think before having a dabble, might put a quid on a couple for interests sake, can i forgive zalatoris after his total capitulation of last week? or hovland at the prices? 40/1 & 55/1 not sure if that's value to be honest.

Regular Season started today in Tokyo Dome. Here are my thoughts about one of today's games: Pirates - Phillies Well, I'll try to post some Spring Training. I hope Pirates can deliver (a win for me - only 1 hour left to start of this duel and I'll try to post earlier, but in these spring training games managers often mix in the lineups very often...). Pirates are today small underdog - ML at odds around 2.00 (slight drop now down to 1.95). Cristopher Sánchez is starting pitcher for Phillies today and he should be better starter than Thomas Harrington, though he lost his three last games against Pirates. He also met Pirates on 7th March in this spring training (Sánchez threw 2.0 innings in that game, which was also won by Pirates). But in these preseason games SP don't pitch that much (ca. max 60-70 pitches). Managers often use in these games many pitchers (sometimes even nine-ten). In yesterday's game Phillies hit only 5 balls, though managed to win 4:2 (yes - they scored only 4 runs against Toronto with two of their better batters - Kyle Schwaber and Bryce Harper - in the lineup). I hope today's game won't go this way. Both big guns aren't in the Phillies' lineup today and I think Pirates should have decent chance for a win. Pirates ML @ 2.00; 1u * stakes will be 1 to 3 units; bet is 2-way (in spring training there can be draw => bet void)

what a ridiculous standard. 7 180s. 141 checkout. 117 average and just 4 legs in. 18yrs old. Just what more can you say about this kid

I'm the same. His action annoys me. His facials annoy me. His jerky body movements annoy me. It's like a fully body nervous tic. And the fact he loses some awful matches then pitches up at big tournaments and plays lights out gets right on my nerves.

At least I backed them each way so didn't lose out 🙂

easy work

International break so we are also taking a one week break from the competition. Last week's results tables will be up after the weekend - I've liked all the winners in the threads (18 of you )

Parks is a unforced error machine

Let's go, Price! (106 average by Cross incoming. 😆)

good call on Robbo @chris666

I like to do tis as well. For me even better if they go down a break very early. More time to come back.

I had him didn’t have time to post main £3 treble will be Italy game -£9 trebles this week

The top 2 for Armenia are (more speculative) bets as well. Miranyan at 5/1 is a system bet. Barseghyan at 4/1 is a less than fair FTM bet so I've played my £2 token stake for tracking purposes.

Standard terms I suppose, probably the shape of the race with the top 3 3/1 or less Although with the overround at 130% I wouldn't touch it with a barge poll

Lucky 15 E/W Sedgefield 2:35 East Eagle 10/1 Newcastle 5:30 Charlie's Choice 7/1 Chepstow 2:55 Totowolfe 11/1 Cork 5:22 Alasken View 12/1

Littler to win and over 4.5 180s is a boost on sky at 2/1 how this sounds?

Decided to opt for Robertson to beat Selby outright at evens and Trump -1.5 at 1.70 @coral Opted for Robertson solely with being the better odds, but feel the game could go either way. Trump outright is 1.40, so went with the -1.5 to boost the price. Hopefully will be a good day's viewing today Good luck!

Also the expensive shoes made the difference 😂

2-0; +2,05u Nationals - Mets I like Mets' chances against Nationals today. I think they played pretty good against Astros and Carlos Mendoza put strong lineup. Yes - they made two errors in this fixture - but at the other end lost only two runs, which is awesome feat against strong team, which Astros are. Although Astros lost some talented players (Bregman, Tucker, Pressly, vet Verlander to name few) they still have decent lineup with Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve. As I assume - closer to start of season managers start to play with best they have and I hope for another strong lineup against Nationals today. Starting pitchers today are Shinnosuke Ogasawara (for Nats) and Kodai Senga (for Mets). Senga returns to action after injury and should keep Mets in the game in first phase of the ballgame. Mets showed against Astros desire and power and for my liking should deliver another win today (Ogasawara shouldn't be able to stop this packed Mets' lineup). Bookies don't see fav in this tie - I do. Mets ML @ 1.90

I think it's because new manager syndrome, Kluivert is the new manager of Indonesia and I think this is the 1st game in charge. I'm thinking to back Australia here , with a win tomorrow at home they can take a very good position to qualify for the WC and the Australian squad is lots better than Indonesia.

I've got tickets for the football GN Day & i think if it's a 3.45 start time with the whole of the ground on their phones ( or trying to get signal / WiFi ) I'll be missing out watching the Irish dominance .

If I look at the Miami open last year. Because all the seeds get a free ride to 2nd round, the 1st round is all none seeds, Qualifiers and wildcards, players on medical exception. WTA Round 1 22 fav wins 10 Losers (69%) Round 2 23 fav wins 9 Losers (72%) Round 3 10 fav wins 6 Losers (63%) Round 4+ 10 fav wins 5 Losers (67%) ATP Round 1 20 fav wins 12 Losers (63%) Round 2 20 fav wins 12 Losers (63%) Round 3 13 fav wins 3 Losers (82%) Round 4+ 11 fav wins 4 Losers (73%) You would kind of expect that the seeds (playing in round 2), would up the win rate significantly. Not so. Interstingly as the tourn progresses, in the ATP the dominant players up the fav win rate, while the WTA goes the other way. Will post once more a list of expected favorite winners. At some point what I am doing will work as it should, and I expect it to start Blinkova v. Rakhimova 1.53 2.45 Kessler v. Bouzkova 1.4 2.9 Garcia C. v. Bondar A. 1.48 2.6 Uchijima v. Lamens 1.67 2.15

Golf 2025, 0/11, -11.00pts One I like in this tournament is: Michael Kim 39.22 Betfair Exchange Last week was first time Michael has missed the cut in 5 events all of those events playing some good consistent Golf. So fingers crossed he can bounce back from the missed cut at The Players with a win this week. Best of luck to all with your selections.

Astros - Mets I hope for another surprise today (win of underdog - Mets are prized at odds of 2.05 in my book). NYM suffered three consecutive defeats against Astros in March, but today Ronel Blanco taking the mound for Houston, and it should be interesting to see, how will he react to humiliation he suffered in February, as he lasted then only 1.1 innings on the mound, with stats of 5H 1HR 3ER against team from NY, though Houston won that duel. Obviously I should tell that Houston team doesn't lie to Mets in this spring training, but in my opinion this regularity could flip today. It's almost start of the season for both teams and I hope, that Carlos Mendoza can put competitive lineup today. Mets had day off yesterday and should be hungry today. There's no starting pitcher announced for Mets yet, though if Mendoza will start with decent one this price for Mets' win will only go down. Mets ML @ 2.05; 1u

Sorry @UBET10 deadline had passed Sat 3pm deadline.

Result Wolverhampton (AW) 16:27 Paradoxical 1st 11/4 Todays Profit = 27.5 pts Current Years Profit 2025 = +112.8 pts Bank = +2080.86 pts.  Profit = +1980.86 pts. Current Winning Run = 1

Millwall 2.20 £12.50 win single

10 pt win treble Notts F (2) 2.00 Man U (2) 1.85 Huddersfield (1) 1.55

Wolves @ 2.05 Man C v Brighton Over 2.5 goals @ 1.44 £30 win double

Boo, Notts Forrest (2) @ 2.00 Real Madrid (2) @ 2.15 Barcelona (2) @ 2.15 £10 Treble

Nottingham Forest at 2.00 40 points to win cheers !

Result Sedgefield 13:38 Demoiselle Kap 1st 4/9F Todays Profit = +4.4 pts Current Years Profit 2025 = +95.3 pts Bank = +2063.36 pts.  Profit = +1963.36 pts. Current Winning Run = 1