Leaderboard

Ratings have made close to 70pts profit last 2 days.lets see if we can hit 100pts today. 1.20 Windsor. Super sabre sam.137.28/1 Officer of the state. 134. 22/1. 1.50. Sans bruit.164.4/1 Unexpected party. 157.33/1 2.30 git maker .142.8/1 Spike Jones.141.22/1. 3.40. Not sure.135.6/1 Regatta de blanc.135.12/1 2.45 Fakenham. Sunday soilder.141. 6/1. Linda really.138.10/1. 3.20 .moviddy. 142.7/1. Regal renisance. 140.12/1. 2pts win.10/1 and over 1pt.e.way. 1/2 pt r.f.c all races.

Good morning all for the second time today (couple of French picks already posted). A 7/2 winner with Mr Vango yesterday (returned 4/1/ BOG), and frustratingly hitting the post with two seconds (not beaten far either!) meant a small gain on the day's activity. Does not get any easier today if looking for horses at longer prices but will chance my arm with this couple along with short summary: Thurles 1.30 JUDICIEUSE ALLEN e/w @ 14/1 (B365) 2 places (rev. f/cst with Spindleberry) Windsor 2.30 GIT MAKER e/w @ 8/1 (B365) 4 places Summary: 1.30 Match race according to bookies with Spindleberry and Only By Night and that may be, but Jud Allen has to also be interesting given trainer and a proven distance winner (Only By Ngiht must prove stamina under rules as win at 3 miles was in a point to point). 2.30 Not one would normally consider as back off a layoff (274 days) but has won before off breaks of 159, 237 and 300 days so obvious claims if cherry ripe for the race. Best of luck today all, whatever you play.

Supa happy to see Pavlyuchenkova win. Very high quality performance and excellent serving (1st set). Not a break of serve by either player in the 1st set, which is so atypical in the woman's game. System picks have been great so far. 25 Aussie open main draw picks, with 16 winners and 9 losers. That's a 36% ROI. Hopefully the wave brought some winnings into members hands.

Morning all. Six races for french jumps fans on a mixed card from Pau today and it would be rude (not to mention boring) to not chance the arm with a couple during the course of the day. In the 3.10, I have selected an OTB which as most of you now know is only a next best bet at best that does not fit in with my usual selection process. These are my couple for today with a brief summary: Pau 3.10 GLASGOW DU BERLAIS (otb) @ 5/1 (B365) Pau 3.47 EARL OF SHANNON @ 5/2 (B365) / double. Summary: 3.10 Simply well weighted and ground should not be a problem, STAMINA a big question mark. 3.47 Looks to have a fairly solid chamce. Advised double pays 20/1 with Bet365 / BOG. Au revoir for now.

Thurles 12.55 £20 Inn At The Park @6/5 Ladbrokes

Alright all back after me little break will had days out to record +£455 day 124 3.10 pau in love 7/1 £10 e/w bet365 👍

The idea behind this thread is to highlight trainers that consistently perform well at certain times of the year. We have all heard comments on TV “Usually does well at this time of year” “Targets this meeting” but can this be profitable? A shrewd friend of mine back in the day used to tell me about Sir Micheal Stoute and his older horses in the Spring, then Mark Johnston and his runners at Glorious Goodwood, I used to have lots of joy betting Peter Bowen horses in the summer months. This snowballed and I started looking at the stats to see if there were any patterns with trainers on a monthly basis, my theory being that trainers are creatures of habit and they do peak horses at certain times of year and target specific meetings, this turned into a labour of love and I have been selecting trainers to bet each month for over 12 years with reasonable success. I select trainers using monthly SP statistics, I typically look for trainers with consistent LSP in the month and a strike rate around the 20% mark. I bet each one of these trainers runners in the month to a level stake and the Profit/Loss comes from Early Price figures using Best Odds Guaranteed bookmakers and exchanges when the prices are out of line. Using this combination I have made a profit in 9 of the 12 years and have an overall LSP over the 12 year period. 2013 +£54.99 LSP 2014 +£45.67 LSP 2015 +£192.53 LSP 2016 +£198.89 LSP 2017 (£123.20) LSL 2018 (£186.81) LSL 2019 +£ 11.83 LSP 2020* (£184.72) LSL 2021 +£33.20 LSP 2022 +£103.11 LSP 2023 +£35.64 LSP 2024 +£168.30 LSP * 2020 was a messy year with Covid spoiling schedules, meetings being rearranged and some stables being closed down so I’ve pretty much written it off in terms of meaningful figures. We have been back on track since and I’m hoping for a successful 2025 I will aim to keep a daily update of results JANUARY TRAINERS I had a tiny loss last January and as a result I have 5 new trainers. I have 9 trainers in total this month, 4 are back from last year, we have 5 NH trainers and 4 AW trainers. NATIONAL HUNT TRAINERS GARY & JOSH MOORE (ALL) Sussex trainer who made a small profit for me in December and last January. Year Wins/Runs Strike Rate P/L 2018 9/46 20% £7.00 2019 9/61 15% (£20.38) 2020 8/48 17% £5.70 2021 11/56 20% £35.78 2022 16/68 24% £9.13 2023 10/49 20% (£9.92) 2024 11/60 18% (£8.05) Looks disappointing on the face of it but my own figures were +£4.33 in 2023 and +£5.57 in 2024 using Early Prices, the strike rate is fine, I've stuck with him while he continues to show a profit profit. CHRIS GORDON (NON BUMPERS) Hampshire trainer who is back after giving a +£27.00 LSP last January. Year Wins/Runs Strike Rate P/L 2018 6/21 29% £34.10 2019 3/21 14% (£11.17) 2020 5/28 18% £16.23 2021 2/7 29% £0.57 2022 8/39 21% £1.71 2023 3/12 25% £23.75 2024 2/19 11% £27.00 Solid stuff, would like to see an improvement on last year's strike rate, avoid his Bumper horses, he’s 1/8 and (£5.25) for the above period. OLLY MURPHY (ALL) Another trainer back from last January where he gave a £8.58 LSP. Year Wins/Runs Strike Rate P/L 2018 10/31 32% £19.75 2019 8/43 19% (£10.56) 2020 15/39 38% £29.68 2021 10/52 19% £2.71 2022 6/64 9% (£43.02) 2023 9/48 19% £31.16 2024 12/54 22% (£4.38) As long as we dodge a repeat of the 2022 figures we should make a nice profit from this guy who comes into the month with a 22% strike rate in December. KERRY LEE (ALL) Hertfordshire trainer who has done well in recent years with the likes of Nemean Lion and Happy Diva. Year Wins/Runs Strike Rate P/L 2020 2/10 20% £3.25 2021 1/4 25% (£0.25) 2022 3/15 20% £7.83 2023 6/22 27% £7.28 2024 3/13 23% (£2.13) Nice strike rate and just a small loss in two of the years, should pay her way. HARRY DERHAM (ALL) Only a small sample size but looks to be a trainer on the up. Year Wins/Runs Strike Rate P/L 2023 3/11 27% £29.50 2024 7/15 47% £11.95 Has had an issue with his gallops being flooded in December so will be keen to get back on track this month. ALL WEATHER TRAINERS DAVID SIMCOCK (4YO+) Newmarket trainer who will crop up a few times throughout the year. Year Wins/Runs Strike Rate P/L 2020 5/22 23% (£3.80) 2021 2/10 20% £4.25 2022 5/24 21% £4.50 2023 5/30 17% £15.00 2024 6/21 29% (£3.55) Solid stuff and every chance we would have sneaked a profit last year using early prices with 6 winners. CHARLIE APPLEBY (ALL) His third year for me in the January, he made a small loss last year but his figures are pretty solid. Year Wins/Runs Strike Rate P/L 2020 5/12 42% (£0.45) 2021 6/11 55% £0.25 2022 7/15 47% £0.00 2023 7/15 47% £0.56 2024 5/11 45% (£1.64) Crazy strike rate, every chance we can glean a profit by getting on early. JAMES TATE (3YO’S) Another Newmarket trainer who will appear again later in the year. Year Wins/Runs Strike Rate P/L 2021 3/15 20% £6.83 2022 0/3 0% (£3.00) 2023 4/14 29% £18.88 2024 2/5 40% £5.83 Just the one bad year when he only had 3 runners, he’s just 2/14 and (£9.77) with his non 3yo’s over the same period so we will give them a swerve. HUGO PALMER (ALL) We've moved away from Newmarket for our last trainer, and we’ve saved the best until last in terms of figures. Year Wins/Runs Strike Rate P/L 2021 2/12 17% (£2.75) 2022 3/9 33% (£1.33) 2023 7/24 29% £16.58 2024 8/22 36% £80.90 Fantastic stuff in the past two years, he comes into the month on the back of a poor November and December but that’s usually the case so don’t let that put you off. Any questions, comments or observations please leave below or DM me, I'll post January figures to date shortly and will try and post results daily.

So basically what it says in the title of the post. There were some good results this weekend like the wins of Crystal Palace, Accrington and Brighton which were all supported by strong ELO ratings but even more were the losses like Reading, Leyton Orient, Huddersfield, Holstein Kiel and Parma. I'd like to start this thread and post some thoughts for future games based solely on ratings and standings and hopefully get a discussion going on. Maybe some people have more info about injuries, motivation or any other factor that can lead to separate the wheat from the chaff so to speak :-) Starting tomorrow I see nothing interesting but on Tuesday we have the League One match between Bolton and Charlton. Ratings indicate Charlton as favourites but odds say otherwise. Of course that doesn't mean anything by itself but for me it's an indication for further analysis. At a first glance I don't see much to separate these two in terms of standings (Bolton 4 points more but also with one match more than their rivals). Charlton's form is a bit better in the last five (3-1-1 vs 2-1-2 for Bolton). Bolton home record this season is 6-3-4 (21-19 goals) while Charlton away record is 4-2-6 (15-15 goals). Any more insight for this? Straight away win is 3.258 right now at the exchanges and the safer Draw-no-Bet is 2.402 which does seem tempting Also a question for @Fader: Do the ratings take into account ALL matches played by a team? Or just league matches?

+£6 todsy 3 places and nr on one 1 winner on 1 day 11 -£4

Small double up. £14.10 returned.

Windsor 4.10 Kocktail Bleu 28/1ew bet365

That's the 2 shorties landed.

Nothing screaming "back me" for me today. Got a money back if loses BB job so gone 4/1 Hurts and Nacua in the first game and will have a bash at the second if it loses.

Pohjanpalo looks too big to me at 13/5 anytime. Main bet with side orders of 1st half goal at 6/1, brace 20s and hat trick 130. (For Venezia.)

Doubt it is real value (Sporting Life big on him scoring) but Murillo feels due a goal and I'll take some 14/1 to score anytime. 0.25pts Murillo to score anytime (14/1 general). P/L: -4.35pts. Thought he was going to do it in the 102nd minute, but couldn't get the shot away.

Great napping

Back Tomorrow - WON 9-4 Khangai - lost Current P/L for January NAPS (1pt win) - 8 winners from 13 selections .. +13.5pts EW (0.5pts EW) - 3 winners from 14 selections .. +0.8pts *** I don't do Sundays as take a day off to do other things.

A very good morning to you Mclarke my friend. And a good question. As you well know there are a LOT of factors to consider when possibly making selections on horses. I have had a system in place for quite a while now which as you can already see from my time on the forum so far has been pretty successful. We will ALL pick more losers than winners but as you know logging your results does help to see if you are doing things the right way. The main process I will always generally stick by first and foremost is quite simply the WEIGHTS of horses and handicaps (hence my adopted name WEIGHTWATCHER). There is simply too much that goes into picking a selection that you could ever really cover in words. I think my words in a previous post after hitting a French winner with the reverse forecast sum things up. STICK TO YOUR PROCESSES (especially if they have generally served you well) and the results and money WILL come at some point.

One I like in the Anytime Touchdown Scorer market for the Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens game is: Dalton Kincaid (Buffalo Bills) 3.50 Hills

I'll add one more system pick to these three for tomorrow. 1/20/2025 Aus Open Navarro E. v Kasatkina D. 1.90 1.95 1/20/2025 Aus Open Sonego L. v. Tien L. 1.76 2.12 1/20/2025 Aus Open Shelton B. v. Monfils G. 1.61 2.39 1/20/2025 Aus Open Rybakina E. v. Keys M. 1.67 2.27 What I like about a system pick, is that the system is just analysing numbers. The ML model does not know who the contestants are, it's just X numbers being applied to a learned function. So there are no personal preferences or emotional behavior. Rybankina has had 3 very easy opponents in the tournament so far. Keys has beaten Ostapenko, Haddad Maia, Pegula, Kasatkina, Collins in this downunder swing. In my analysis, she is performing at her max level, way better than 2022, 2023 and 2024. She is at the top of her game. Again the system likes Tien's numbers. His opponent, Sonego has been serving really well, but interesting to me are Tien's numbers from the NextGen (4 game AD point sets scoring which is heavily favoring the server). Tien beat Michelsen, Mensik and Fils ... all very good servers. SO it sets him up well to hopefully handle the Sonego serve and win. The Navarro v Kasatkina match is just a bun fight. Very close. Whoever wins a couple of important points probably wins. Navarro has played 3 3 set matches in a row, while Kasatkina has had 3 straight set wins, with 5 really easy sets in 6. Court time is interesting ... Navarro 2.:05 | 2:13 | 3:22 or 7:42 hours Kasatkina 1:08 | 1:29 | 1:24 or 4:01 hours So Kasatkina should be way fresher and definitely be favored to win if this goes to 3 sets. If I look at Monfils, the cornerstone of his wins has been fantastic serving. Serve games won Monfils v Perricard 28/28 (not 1 break point which is ridiculously good). Monfils v Altmaier 14/17 serve games won. Monfils v Fritz 20/21 (4 break points faced). When a player is so solid off the serve, it sets up the rest their game. Monfils is holding serve at 94% this tourn, and his 54 week average is 82%. He is serving lights out! Wouldn't bother me if by some miracle he won the Aussie Open.

Bet 167 P/L -£122.50

2.15 Fakenham: Mohawk Chief @ 3/1 (Bet365)

Elina Svitolina to beat Veronika Kudermetova at 1.66 with Bet365 Svitolina was zoning against Paolini, and I think she's a better big match player than Kudermetova. I also read somewhere (didn't check, but she's certainly in the plus a lot) that Svitolina is 9-0 against Russian players since the start of the war, so there's that extra to hopefully bank on as well.

I'm unconvinced regarding Zverev. OK, he does what he does very well. Serve and backhand excellent. But I see no real improvements in the transission game. That midcourt, sharp angle low return, which forces a tall player to bend the legs and get down. Essentially the ball that forces an opponent into the net on your terms. I've been nothing but impressed with Humbert. This is a tricky customer, and just needs some confidence and to get over the imposter syndrome. His match against Fils was ferocious, hard hitting, with plenty of skill.

Sunday ( to be confirmed ) Plenty of good discussion today which is really healthy , keep it coming. Stakes Saturday £20.00 Saturday profit £0.00 Cumulative stakes £330.00 Cumulative Profit £167.50 Bet365 Everton vs Tottenham over 2.5 goals / Both teams to score / Both teams receive a card 3/1 +£30.00 Looks like it for the day as i can't find any NFL that qualifies although you never know nearer k/off time , decent one today and although i'm not a bet builder thought i'd ask someone who's more of an expert ( harry_rag ) who confirmed my thoughts that it was a very decent bet at those enhanced odds.

Always love to see a nice winner. It's always good to get a winner early when you're betting at big odds, as it gives you a bit in hand for when the losing run comes. All the best with this going forward and hopefully a few more nice price winners around the corner.

Good wins tonight on Arsenal game, using bet builde offers , had marginally over 6 corners and arsenal booking, thanks trossard. And got the uni special up too so £190 win. Good returns today with horses too.

Forest Green v Rochdale It does baffle me slightly how Forest Green have only lost twice so far this season, because I think they should have fewer points than they do. Barnet should have beaten them on Tuesday night and whilst they do look solid defensively, they do seem lacking a bit at the other end at the moment. They are yet to lose at home, but with Rochdale also conceding very few (20 goals in 22 games compared to FGR's 21 in 26) this could just be the game which sees them finally defeated at home. Rochdale haven't played a league game since Boxing Day with just an FA Trophy match since which hopefully will help them as well and they are just too big a price for me. Slough v Eastbourne Eastbourne have been well backed, but I still thought there was a bit of juice in the price. Every time I put them up as a bet they seem to fail to win, but they are 3rd and had a dominant win on Tuesday night over Tonbridge. It is just one loss in 10 for them and its draws which are stopping them from being higher up the table. We took on Slough last week to great effect and they just seem off it at the moment as Hemel ran out easy winners. Curzon Ashton v Brackley How on earth Curzon last to Farsley on Boxing Day given their issues I will never know, but that was 2 surprising defeats on the bounce. They did beat Alfreton in their only league game since then, but it does hint that they might not be capable of staying in title contention. Brackley have only lost twice away from home and one of those was when we were on them to beat Scarborough and they went down to 10 men early doors. They had a superb win on Tuesday night beating Alfreton 4-3 given they had their keeper sent off at the end of the 1st half and their captain had to go in goal. I don't think there is much between these two sides at all and happy to back an away win at the odds. Marlow v Plymouth Parkway Marlow did finally get another win last week, but they are still the worst team in the division and Plymouth have been good on the whole for the last month or so. They also had their keeper sent off on Tuesday night, but still held on for a 3-3 against Bracknell. We are more than owed a win opposing Marlow and Plymouth look a good price to finally get it for us. Hashtag v Dover The home sides only defeat in 10 games was to 2nd place Billericay 2-1 and they followed that up with a 5-1 thrashing of 3rd place Cray Valley and 1-0 win against in form Chatham. They can easy beat top placed Dover based on their recent efforts at they are just simply too big a price. Dover have lost 3 of their last 6 and the wins have only been against some of the lesser sides in the division including woeful Hendon last time. This game is just priced up wrong for me. Hendon v Carshalton I did think about not opposing Hendon this week as they have got a new manager and on Friday they have announced 4 signings so far (nothing to write home about on the face of it), but they have been so bad and conceding so many that I will chance it. Carshalton's away from isn't the best either, but chances are this is a great chance for them to get an away win. Prices from Friday 10am Rochdale 1pt @ 14/5 with Skybet, William Hill, Betfair, Paddy Power and BetVictor (take up to 2/1) Eastbourne 1pt @ 11/8 with Paddy Power, Betfred, Betfair and BetVictor (slightly bigger with Hils and take up to 6/5) Brackley 1pt @ 2/1 with Skybet and BetVictor (Hills are 11/5 and a few smaller bookies are bigger and take up to 7/4) Plymouth Parkway 1pt @ 7/5 with Bet365 (take up to 6/5) Hashtag 1pt @ 23/10 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 15/8) Carshalton 1pt @ 11/8 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 6/5)

The following have made the shortlist for the American Express - * Will Zalatoris win 64/1 * Jason Day win 129/1 * Nick Taylor win 169/1 * Harris English win 183/1 * Andrew Putnam win 209/1 All prices Betfair Good luck on your bets this week!

Ravens and the Bills about to start and I'm just on Jackson for a TD at 2.88 as nothing else really appeals, and certainly not the 2 to 1 on about Henry - although he probably will score.

Never down in the dumps, just accept the ups and downs of betting I make most of my money on the stock market, the bettings just a side show Having said that, I spend much more time studying the horses than balance sheets !

First look at the most winners Very open this month @bymatrix in the lead by 1 but a fair way to go to get to the 10 point mark @Carole-dawney behind by 3 but has a 6 point buffer to play with

Sinayoko my only French fancy in the 2 games about to start. 5 on the exchange, a bit better than the acceptable best bookies price.

410 WIN IDAHO SUN 5/1 LADB

Match was very high quality. Probably one of the best WTA matches of the tournament.

We'll have to disagree then and that's fine. Keys wanted to win in straight sets without fuss I'm almost certain of that. Good luck if you do back her and as you allude to, strap in if you do as it could be a wild ride.

3.05 Windsor Protektorat - £20 win at 3/1 w/Boyles.

Current loss - 0.74

Todays runners :- Windsor 12.45 Barrabool @ 55 (Exchange) Everest @ 150's 1.20 Illegal d'Ainay @ 40 (Exchange) Officer Of State @ 25's 1.55 Editeur Du Gite @ 30's 2.30 Hermino AA @ 14's 3.40 Not Sure @ 15/2 Fakenham 1.05 Kalif d'Airey @ 4/5 3.55 Edward Sexton @ 11/8

I watched that match. Ruse is very underrated. She is way better than her ranking. Service excellent, very athletic, and mentally strong. She played really well ... as you say. Keys is near her max form and just played a little better. Second set Ruse was phenomenal. I watched her when she played like this against Krejcikova (dunno which tourn maybe US open). Her game can trouble the top 15.

It's an interesting story. And a common one sadly. We've all been there chasing at one time or another I'm sure, and it sounds like you came out of it ok this time. Another time you might not and I'm sure you know that.

Thanks for the heads up. Didn't realise that. I'm already on her but I wouldn't advise anyone to join me if she's not fit.

Two places,a nice return!

Perfect ride that, great shout, could have been spooked by the money coming on Autumn Angel there too....

Bet 7 wins out £19 in £488.66

Always happens to me when I put my head above the parapet, keep the faith

You should have gone with the 6.30 at Wolves, 4 runners finished 8/1, 11/2, 9/4, 1/1.