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Morning all. Obviously really pleased with yesterday's three from three effort (winners at 6/4, 5/2 and 13/2) so have decided it's extra poppadoms time with this Friday's ruby murray. LOL. Joking aside, win or lose any day we just go again so these are my selections for today with brief additional summary: Exeter 1.55 PACHACUTI e/w @ 13/2 (B365) 4 places Ffos Las 2.07 THE SCORPION KING @ 7/2 (general) (rev. f/cst with Haut Folin) Exeter 3.05 IMPERIAL JOE e/w @ 7/1 (general) 5 places SUMMARY: Pachacuti in off joint bottom weight may go well, The Scorpion King narrowly over Haut Folin (pulled up 8 times in 21 runs, including last two on heavy ground) who is respected. Imperial Joe though taking on younger horses and inexperienced amateur jock on board looks on a decent enough mark to me and one of young amateur's two wins came on this horse. Have made updates on ANTE POST SELECTIONS page where Olly Murphy has done me no favours for the weekend. Cheers Olly. Good luck to all today. Give those bookies hell!

No Joy yesterday (11 point loss). Credit where's credit due, there's been some excellent tipping on here in the last few days, so clearly i need to up my game 🙂 Today's Picks: 12.57 Ffos Las 2pts win Jalisco Star 6/1 (Betfred) 13.55 Exeter 2pts win Toss of a Coin 6.0 (Betfair Exchange) 14.30 Exeter 5pts win Issam 9/4 (Betfred) Prices taken at 10.45 a.m Sel/Wins: 18/3 P/L: -17.5 pts

Just the two selections today... 15.40 Exeter Russian Invasion 16/1 1pt e/w (5 places) 18.10 Chelmsford Glencavie 13/2 2pt win 4pts staked 🤝🏽

Hello Punters Lounge members, We wanted to take this opportunity to wish you and your loved ones a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year! As 2024 draws to a close, it gives us a chance to reflect on what has been a very positive year for the Punters Lounge Forum. This year, several changes have been implemented to the forum. The restructuring of the forum itself was the biggest noticeable alteration with a more streamlined layout of the topic areas improving the navigation experience for you all. Adding @Torque as a moderator has boosted our efforts to improve engagement across the forum. Alongside @harry_rag, the two veteran members have created, encouraged, and moderated content across many areas which has benefited the site as a whole. A Responsible Gambling forum has been added as we have looked to offer a safe space for people who feel they want to talk about any gambling-related issues they may have. It has already played a role in allowing that to happen. New members can now take advantage of a more helpful 'Introduce Yourself' section that includes an FAQ section and Forum Guidelines. If you aren’t sure where to start with Punters Lounge then head on over to that area. The forum has celebrated the return of the PL Oscars. Congratulations to the legendary @richard-westwood for being voted the Forum MVP! A special shout-out to all those who won their respective categories and were also nominated. We want to give a big thank you to everyone who played their part and voted. This calendar year also saw many winners earn fantastic prizes across our different forum competitions including Football Tipster, Last Man Standing, Fantasy Football League, and NAP of the Day. Finally, we would like to thank every one of you for your continued involvement in making this forum the best online betting community in the world. This site is nothing without you all and we hope that over the next 12 months, we can continue to work hard to provide you with a brilliant place where you can come to post your bets, share your tips, and make friends. Bring on 2025! Season’s greetings from all of us at Punters Lounge!

hmm 100/1 he'd have to beat Cross, Van Veen, Littler and Humphries just to make a final. Id want more like 250/1 personally. If he always played like that then great but I reckon he'll throw a 90 average in somewhere. Brilliant game though, one of my favs this year, so far.

Courtesy of @WEIGHTWATCHER and @Hotspur88 hopefully pay for Xmas dinner 🤞😂👍

Day 15 picks. 10p E/W with Sky extra places.

Flag a game that fits the bill and I’ll run it through the spreadsheet.

I reckon the numbers would improve significantly if only heavy home favourites were looked at. Tonight's match between Tottenham and Manchester United is the wrong odds profile for what I'd be looking to do.

And this is supposed to be the pinnacle of the sport. Surely there are a hundred-odd darts players in the world that can double at least 4 out of 10 on a regular basis. If there isn't then it shows how far the sport has to go before there's no more room for players to improve.

Here's some random takes which hopefully make sense and add some value to the discussion! For me, the fair odds for this bet are at least 22.5, perhaps slightly higher. I've done the maths based on the exchange back price of 18.5 for 1-0 being fair (with 19.5 to lay it could end up at 19) and an 82% chance of the bookings line being covered (using a tried and trusted Kev P formula and taking the buy price of 50 as a guide for the bookings; the sell price of 46 is probably closer to the true value). To be fair to SBK, they're best price about all of the correct scores for 2 goals or less. Their correct score odds dutch to 2.79 for the unders versus their actual price of 2.86 and an exchange price of 2.98. If you were going to follow @Torque's idea of the most likely score, this would be a 2-1 game rather than a 1-0 game. 2-1 Spurs at 11 is their most likely win scoreline with 1-1 draw fav overall at 9.2. To support that notion (the shorter prices being closest to fair), if you add 25% to the SBK score odds and compare it to what you can get on the exchange, 1-1 comes out top at 1.2 x the exchange price while 2-1 is 1.18. 1-0 is just under 1.17. (As that ignores the cards bet it doesn't mean you're getting value but it at least means you're closer to fair odds.) My conclusion remains that this approach is getting you close to fair odds rather than clear value and that the long term expectation is around break even but we're going to need an awful lot of bets to prove me right or wrong! I agree with Torque that you'd probably improve your chances by backing the score that's favourite (either the shortest win score or maybe even the 1-1 where relevant). Whether there's a better "blind" angle to be had I don't know. My preferred approach is to build a BB around a leg that you believe to be a value bet in its own right which in my case means goalscorers where I flatter myself I have at least a marginal edge! Unfortunately SBK look to be a bit cautious when it comes to pricing that market.

I'm not entirely convinced on that point but I've set up a spreadsheet to crunch the numbers a bit. I'll look at a Premier League game close to kick off when there's decent liquidity on the exchange. For now I've populated it with odds from Fulham v Southampton. I think a 25% bonus certainly puts you in the ballpark for fair odds but how much it takes you beyond that I'm not sure. If you dutch the best odds for all correct scores involving 2 goals or less you get a price for <2.5 goals that falls quite a bit short for best bookies odds in that market let alone the exchange. I'm curious to see how best price +25% compares to what you could get on the exchange anyway. Also don't forget that it's being done in a BB with a low total cards line so there's a few other factors impacting the potential value. You might not be getting best available price for the correct score You might be getting poor initial odds for the cards line The BB odds might take a lot of margin out of the combined bet @MCLARKE If it's not too much hassle, for the next few you post could you quote the single odds for the individual components, e.g. the score and the cards line. I'm interested to see how what you're offered compares to the straight multiplied odds. Your results have been suggesting otherwise (though with a degree of very hot and cold streaks) but I'm still of the opinion that this feels like a pretty much break even proposition long term from the few I've looked at.

Like chalk and cheese. The worst performance so far followed by easily the best. Grbavac just lost 3-0 with an average of nearly 100. He must be fuming - would have beaten every other player that's taken to the stage so far with that performance.

10pew

Best of luck for you, me and Hotspur88 my friend.

@Carole-dawneytop one

Southwell 15.30 £20 Beneficiary @100/30 William Hill

Lee +2.5 x Clemens/Owen > 3.5 set @ 2.33 for me

2.20 Southwell: Dream Pirate @ 4/1 (Bet365)

Ok, I like the NBA and the NCAA College basketball and often bet on both as the matches are abundant and generally easy to predict if you got some knowledge about many of the college teams and especially NBA teams. I'll stick to NCAA here though from time to time and hope I can draw some interest to this part of the forum.

No bet personally, don't fancy the field, Dad has went Schaper Jarvis Kinhult Pavan All win only

7/1 winner baby. 5/6 & 2/1 winner for Ricky Evans too, on the final leg.

What a match with Williams and Niko. Standard was ridiculous for much of the match from both of them. Feel sorry for the young German losing out having played so well. Aside from that first set, Wiilliams was on fire throughout, on this form he could go deep, 100/1 to win the tournament might look like good value in a week or so's time.

The Smith Doets 4 100+ one

Yes, the odds are with SBK. Strangely they do not allow a win selection with a correct score although they do offer the over / under option. There are some bets where I believe I have a small edge on the home/draw/market so on these I would hope there will be a good advantage with the 25% boost.

How boring is this lol

Well the eagle has landed (or in this case the Turkey) -thanks to 100/1 shot Karuma Grey Southwell 11.00 Grey Operations 5/1ew £2.00 Coral------3rd 5/2f won £0.00 Southwell 11.00 Sole Spirit 9/2ew £2.00 W Hill-----lost 3/1 Southwell 12.00 Sands Of Havana 15/2ew £2.00 W Hill-----lost 7/1 Ffos Las 12.57 Flintara 11/1ew £2.00 Coral------lost 12/1 Ffos Las 2.42 Saint Palais 5/1ew £2.00 W Hill-----lost 6/2 Ffos Las 3.17 Karuma Grey 66/1ew £2.00 W Hill-----1st 100/1 won £120.00 Chelmsford 5.40 Rajeko 6/5 £2.00 W Hill-----1st 4/6f won £2.40 Won £122.40 Lost £8.00 Total won £114.40 New total won £105.18 and betfair - Southwell 11.00 Grey Operations 6.80 £1.00 £1.00 Lost Southwell 11.00 Sole Spirit 5.30 £1.00 £1.00 Lost Southwell 12.00 Sands Of Havana 8.40 £1.00 £1.00 Lost Ffos Las 12.57 Flintara 12.50 £1.00 £1.00 Lost Ffos Las 2.42 Saint Palais 5.70 £1.00 £1.00 Lost Ffos Las 3.17 Karuma Grey 100.00 £1.00 £97.02 Won Chelmsford 5.40 Rajeko 2.18 £2.00 £2.31 Won Won £99.33 Lost £5.00 Total won £94.33 New total won £53.44 Mrs justanotherpunter has already done a raid on my sporran and hoofed it down to the shops - so there will be Turkey and all the trimmings for Christmas after all - no need for the foodbank this week 😄 Could do with another big winner or two to cover presents money so fingers crossed 🥳

Result: Beneficiary u/p. Lost £20 December profit to date £177.01

Classic law of sod, the three Q School graduates I pick start absolute pants lol. Though others that were on my shortlist are nicely poised near the top, mainly talking of Skov Olesen and Davis Bryant to name two.

won 330 Beneficiary 3/1

I'm glad the 3-0 Lukeman wasn't any price because I never would have had him getting a set based on recent performances here.

Very short one today

Good spot!

It is the time for some Cheer and Beer/Spirit mark your preferences, or if you are tee total celebrate your success on my long shot of the Day 11.30 Southwell Thunder Earthlight 33/1 Win Only Bet 365 running from the fine yard of Karl Burke

And I'll go Miah to beat Stevens at 2.62 bet365

I'll fill in with another underdog for the afternoon: Boiko to beat Mark Davis at 2.39 with Betsson

Bet 141 P/L -£173.10

Such a shame. And it seems like it's almost impossible to fully get over once you've had it.

Agreed but don’t try saying that sentence into a microphone without a decent pop guard in place!

Lost Month -£10

Top of the morning to everyone. A 9/1 winner yesterday was nice and so on to today. Again a day where I would rather play than have no interest in the action at all. Here are mine for today with a small play trixie: Newbury 2.25 JAVERT ALLEN @ 6/4 (general) Ludlow 2.35 FAMOSO @ 5/2 (WH/Skybet) Lingfield 2.47 JOLIE BAIE e/w @ 13/2 (B365/WH) 3 places Not selections but will be interested in the efforts of Balkardy (Ludlow 12.50) back to fences after a very poor run over the smaller obstacles last time out. And Wrappedupinmay (Newbury 1.15) who I did consider as a selection but the combination of a long lay off (322 days but has won fresh after 252) and a first try at fences was enough to put me off. Interesting though especially as trained by Paul Nicholls so may well be ready to do itself justice. Very quickly, added another bullet to my ANTE POST SELECTIONS if anyone interested in taking a peek. Good luck to whoever plays today and whatever you play.

Middlesbrough v Millwall 1@ 1.67 Bradford v Swindon 1 @ 1.67 Walsall v Barrow 1 @ 1.85 £10 Treble

10 points win Man utd @ 5

OVER 2.5 GOALS LIVERPOOL V FULHAM 1.44 MAN CITY V MAN UTD 1.44 RB LEIPZIG V EINTRACHT FRANKFURT 1.53 10pt treble please

Wycombe 1.73 £50 win single.