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Turned a big corner in my operation recovery today ....feeling much more myself so getting stuck into big races ......I've been very impressed with the class form rating so I've rated the ayr bronze cup using it and it flagged 3 horses Monsieur Kodi 347 16/1 Vince lamour 336 16/1 Havana rum. 336 16/1 Trilby 327 Top 3 are quite a bit ahead of 4th and rest of field and hail from all powerful Fahey and easterby stables who do well in this race .....on top of that strangely they are all three drawn together on the high rail so if the ratings holds they can all drag each other along with the rail to help ......I'll try 5pt wins all 3 with forecasts

1pt e/w Ayr Bronze Cup Diligent Resdev 22/1 6places BOG

👍 Won cosily

Ayr 1.15 The first of nine races covered by ITV is this class 2 1M handicap which features a maximum field of fourteen runners. It looks a wide open affair with top weight Mirsky for the David O’Meara stable bringing a decent piece of form to the stable which a last time out runner up (beaten 1/2L) in the Clipper Handicap at York won by Thunder Run. He’s 2lb higher now and may struggle to confirm the form with Andrew Balding’s Aragon Castle who was 1 3/4L back in sixth and is now 2lb better off. One of only two three-year-olds in the race he may still have further improvement to come and with P J McDonald in the saddle can reward an each way wager. There are many others with claims however including last year’s winner Revich who’s now 7lb lower in the ratings. ARAGON CASTLE 1/2 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 1234 Newbury 1.30 The Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes is a Group 3 contest run over 5F which has attracted a field of eleven runners. The best in at the weights and a good 8lb and more ahead of his field is the Mick Appleby trained Annaf who was denied a clear run in the Haydock Sprint Cup last time out trailing in 15th of the 16 runners. I’m not entirely sure this Grade 2 7F winner wants a drop back to the minimum trip and is opposable. With a band of rain forecast the ground could easily ride on the slow side and that will be music to the ears of connections of the Rod Millman trained Adaay In Devon who’s been on the go since the first day of the season at Doncaster in March but appears to keep her form remarkably well. Her ideal conditions are 5F on soft ground and having run well on her last two starts on fast ground should appreciate stepping back on an easier terrain today. She looks good each way value under Silvestre De Sousa. ADAAY IN DEVON 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 1234 Ayr 1.50 The Doonside Cup is a listed contest run over 1M 2F and has attracted a field of nine this year. Joint best in here on official ratings is the Ricard Hannon trained three-year-old Persico who holds the Group 1 Champion Stakes entry at Ascot next month. He should run well but I’m not sure drying ground is his favoured ground conditions so pass him over in favour of the penalised Phantom Flight. George Scott’s five-year-old carries a 3lb penalty for winning a listed contest on his first run for the stable back in July and has run well twice since in Group 3 company. Runner up last time out to See The Fire in the Strensall Stakes at York when he had the re-opposing Roger Varian runner Enfjaar 2 1/2L behind in sixth. The latter is now 3lb better off and can get closer especially as he had a wide trip that day but may just struggle to make up all of the ground on the selection. PHANTOM FLIGHT 1 point win @ 11/4 Betfred Newbury 2.05 A valuable class 2 1M 5 1/2F handicap has attracted fifteen runners and a very worthy favourite in the David Menuisier trained Waxing Gibbous who certainly won’t mind if the rain hits the Berkshire track. The four-year-old filly stepped up his form when moving up to 1M 6F in the valuable handicap the Old Borough Cup Handicap at Haydock earlier this month when going down by just a neck to Epic Poet. This will only be her eighth career start and may have further improvement in her. Shes fairly berthed in stall 8 and should be highly competitive with the Andrew Balding runner Lieber Power looking a likely threat . WAXING GIBBOUS 1 point win @ 4/1 bet365 Ayr 2.25 The first of the two 6F cavalry charges today is the Virgin Bet Silver Cup Handicap which features 23 runners. One horse stands out here to me and that’s the six timer seeking Craig Lidster trained Alfa Kellenic. The three-year-old filly has been a revelation this season rising some 23lb since starting her run and her recent victory at York over 7F has been boosted since by the 2nd and 4th finishing 2nd and 3rd in a Group 3 since. That victory came off of a mark of 88 and taking today’s jockey William Pyle’s 3lb claim into account is now only 2lb higher and should appreciate stepping back to 6F. The ex Archie Watson runner Rhythm N Hooves is interesting having his first run for sprint specialist Robert Cowell but this is all about Alfa Kellenic who it would be no shock were he to be well backed exiting from stall 22. ALFA KELLENIC 1 point each way @ 11/2 Quinnbet 1/5th 12345 Newbury 2.40 Eleven run in this valuable class 2 1M 2F handicap. Any easing in the ground is maybe against the likes of Flying Frontier and Quietness who are close to the head of the market and there may well be some each way value to be found in the shape of the Harry Eustace trained Mustazeed who always seems to run well at the Berkshire track with form figures here which read 01148. The David Probert ridden six-year-old is due to run at the track on Friday so may not be a certain runner but if he does run he’s worth a saver bet for sure. The main bet though is the Simon &b Ed Crisford trained three-year-old Involvement who was two necks behind the re-opposing Flying Frontier at Sandown last time and can turn that form around on 2lb better terms. He also has form on soft ground so may not mind were things to get muddy. INVOLVEMENT 1 point ew @ 9/2 bet365 1/5th 1234 MUSTAZEED 1/2 point each way @ 20/1 bet365 1/5th 1234 Ayr 3.00 Thirteen have declared for the Group 3 Firth Of Clyde Stakes run over 6F for two-year-old fillies. Arguably the form horse is the George Boughey trained Englemere, a winner in listed company and 4th in a Group 3 last time but she has yet to try this distance and it may be worth chancing one of those stepping up in class. William Haggas saddles his Newbury maiden winner Sky Majesty (runner up won in the week) and should be thereabouts along with the Henry De Bromhead trained Town And Country who was last seen winning a maiden at Navan from the 90 rated Snapdragon. Of the pair I prefer the former who is owned by Tony Bloom and can take this step up in grade in her stride under Callum Rodriquez. SKY MAJESTY 1 point each way @ 9/2 Betfred 1/5th 1234 Newbury 3.15 A field of ten have declared for the Group 2 Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes run over 6F for two-year-olds. Richard Fahey’s Powerful Glory looked smart when landing a gamble on his debut at Pontefract winning by an easy 5 1/2L with his trainer saying all the right things about him afterwards and nominating this race as a target. That was on good to firm ground though with Fahey staying he is ‘a very fast horse’. I just wonder if rain softened ground will suit and prefer the more established form line of the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes from York in which Charlie Appleby’s Shadow Of Light had a head in front of Adrian Keatley’s subsequent winner Symbol Of Strength. There shouldn’t be much between them with slight preference for the former who will be ridden by William Buick. Closely related to heavy ground Group 1 winner Earthlight he may not be inconvenienced by the likely easier ground so is the pick. SHADOW OF LIGHT 1 point win @ 11/4 William Hill Ayr 3.35 The day’s feature handicap is the Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup Handicap run over 6F with a maximum field of 25. As you would expect there are many with chances including last weekend’s gambled on Portland Handicap winner American Affair who should appreciate stepping up half a furlong but does have to race off of a handicap mark 5lb higher. The one that takes my eye is the David Evans trained six-year-old Rohaan who was seventh in this last year from a modest draw only beaten 1 3/4L and returns off of a handicap mark 8lb lower. He bounced back to form with a credible third at Ascot last time out under today’s jockey Tom Queally and looks a very well handicapped at present as three of his handicap victories have come from a significantly higher handicap mark. Theres a lot to like and if drawn on the right side (he’s in stall 8 next to front runner Sergeant Wilko) can run a big race. ROHAAN 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 123456

After being inspired by @Mrjol. heroics last weekend. I've decided the real money in football is not in going for glory, it is in fact finding players who foul, cheat and swear lol. With that said, here are my four angrymen of the weekend: Player to be booked 4 fold, odds 87.42 Antonee Robinson (Fulham) Adam Smith (Bournemouth) Christian Norgaard (Brentford) Nelson Semedo (Wolves) Bet365 (player void if doesn't start)

Azure Blue 3 40Ayr 1/40th of a pt ew 15/1

AW selection Kempton 5.45 KING OF FURY

Gold cup Mostabshir 545 12/1 Rohaan .543 12/1 Orazio 528 18/1 Northern express .519 Glenfinnan 515 Fiverhiusandtoone 515 Top 3 5 PT wins ....forecasts

Silver cup with class rating Alfa kellenic. 397 11/2 Two tribes. 397 16.0 Mr wagyu. 394 22/1 Summerghand 389 Alfa kellenic doesn't know how to lose ....but this is tough against so many high class sprinters ....two tribes would have hated the heavy ground lto and is better on faster ground ......Mr wagyu has been running crap but is one horse who pops up when you least expect him to ...so When he is top 3 rated I sit up and take note 5 PT wins top 3 and forecasts

3rd. + £14. + £186

Nick Mordins comments on class in "Betting For A Living". A horse may have speed ratings higher than any other runner in the race. It may be perfectly suited to the distance, the going and the track. It may be in the best form of its life. But if it is outclassed, it simply will not win. This phenomenon can be seen most clearly in the highest class races. If you are assessing the chances of runners in a Group 1 race for older horses, you can simply draw a line through any horse who has never placed in anything better than a Group 3 contest. This will eliminate around half the runners but only once or twice in a hundred events will it ever put you off a winner. Every horse will have its own class barrier. Class barriers are encountered most often by horses who won their last race. A large percentage of such horses will be stepped up in class - and nearly 90% of them will lose.

Wishing you the best of health Richard. Interesting picks BTW

Stoke v Hull in the Championship gets the weekend underway domestically on Friday night with games in Spain, Germany and Italy's top flights as well. Enough to ease us into a busy weekend. A whopping 8 Premier League games on Saturday with West Ham v Chelsea and Palace v Man U topping and tailing the half dozen 3:00 games. Plenty of action in pretty much every other league you could care to mention as well along with FA Trophy and Welsh Cup action for those of you of a more esoteric bent. On Sunday, Man City and Arsenal meet in what will be the big game of the weekend for many and there's a Milan derby for those looking a little further afield. Finally there are a smattering of games on Monday to bring things to a close. No shortage of games to go at so let's see what takes our collective fancy. Thoughts and bets below please.

Won, BSP 5.60 77 from 317, LSP 64.94

Gold cup.re rated Mostabshir. 461 12/1 0.51 Rohaan 456 12/1 ...Val 0.51 Ramazan. 452 10/1 Val 0.43 Commanche falls 451 25/1 Val 1.01 Billyjoh. 446 14/1 Val 0.60 Already backed top 2 .....so I might add the value bet commanche falls 5 PT Ew

Re rating cups with main rating ... Silver cup Brooklyn nine nine 395 13/2 Val 0.30 Alfa kellenic. 391 11/2 Val 0.24 Two tribes 390 12/1 Val 0.50 Jenever 387 25/1 Val 1.06 Value bet is jenever overall ...but if you go by draw bias today ....Alfa and Brooklyn are drawn High and two tribes and jenever low ..........I'm gonna cash out and change my bets to these two drawn low ....5 PT Ew both ....you watch the draw switch now ...lol 🤣

I wanted to go big on Stoke but they sacked their manager in the week, so that's introduced some uncertainty. I will still oppose Hull who are trying to play total football...without the players to do it and it was more kamikaze football in their last game. 1pt win Stoke 11/10 Bet365 (2 goal ahead early payout). P/L: -4.55pts

Result: Dippedinmoonlight 1st. Won £20 September profit to date £34.86

So many diff methods but I've never found a definitive one ...I'm sure there is without a doubt but I've never seen it ...... The basic one is taking win prizemoney and dividing by wins .....or you can use total prizemoney won and divide by total races run....most people prefer the former but each has it's merits and limitations As discussed ....if a horse has won a 25000 race last year and has done absolutely nothing in ten races since ...he would have a really high class rating but probably no chance in reality ...so it can't be used solely ...it needs to be used in tandem with a recent form rating I personally think 🤔 But as I mentioned .....it's an unseen force in racing .....most people ignore it but if you do your doomed before you even start ....it's connected to everything Even with speed ratings ....you've seen yourself if you don't adjust for class the whole rating comes tumbling down ....despite really if a horse runs a fast time it's a fast time .....then why is it impossible to recreate up in class ??....in ways it doesn't make sense ??

16.15 Ayr : Diligent Resdev (ew) - 22/1 Bet365

Sportinglife Accy Luton West Brom Huddersfield Wrexham Notts County 10/1 Skybet

I had my appendix removed in April Richard. Not pleasant but you’ll be right as rain in about 8-10 weeks from the op. All the best mate and good luck today.

Glad to hear your feeling better nothing like a nice winner to help 👍👍

Thankyou ...I've definitely turned a corner and rapidly improving every day ....I'm really looking forward to seeing what happens ....Monsieur Kodi is well backed but trainer reckons he might need more rain ....there is a storm coming so who knows what's gonna happen 🤔🤔

Fun fact: Bunting never won an ET event. He is due though.

Yeah, good luck with your bets fellas. I’m just taking Bunting at 16/1 with PaddyPower. Seems to be in the easiest quarter (famous last words), and was pretty consistent in the Players Championship events this past week.

Good luck guys Best value in the opening matches for me is tonight Scott Williams to beat Woodhouse @ 2.16 with Unibet Got a good H2H record against him

£10 E/W 4.15 Ayr: Classy Al @ 33/1 (Bet365) 1st 6 places

Newb 255 Jr Climbs 12/1 £10 ew bet365 4pl.

I think Chisnall makes sense with his record on the ET. No Littler thank god but Humphries is still in town. I will do the same stupid stuff and go with high prices lol. All each-way Chisnall 25/1 Paddypower Rock 28/1 Skybet Nijman 50/1 Paddypower Gurney 80/1 Skybet Pie 150/1 (I know, I know) Paddypower

Placed +£22 -£18 day 12

Tomorrow, the next event, this time in Hungary. Last year, Chizzy won an epic final against Humphries. I went with Chisnall 26 and Wright 29. I think they are both viable candidates, in good form too. They are on the same side of the bracket, but I hope one of them manages to get to the final. Good news: NO LITTLER!

233 PONTY APACHE GREEN 12/1 BET365

16.30 Naas Mykonian Odyssey 13/2 coral

A lot of random players seem to have made it to the last 16 but doubtless one of the big guns will win the final on Sunday.

Newmarket 1520 Miss Show Off 4/1 betfair

Two winners today, one at 18/1 which meant a small profit on the day. My return was 3.55 from 3.00 stakes = 0.55 profit. It was great to see Billy get a treble today and so annoying that I didn't include his horses. I will devote a significant proportion to Jockeys and also trainer selections in future, with up to half based on what I feel should be horses that should win on form. It upsets me too much to miss out on my favourite jockeys and trainers runners. My C/Fwd figures are L15's -118.53 and RC P/L incl L15's = -173.21

Well done ...easy winner

3.05 ayr - educating rita 33/1 ew

(4) Bears to win Moneyline @ Evens The Packers showed everyone how to beat the Colts. Just run the ball on them. The Bears defence is solid only allowing three points to the Texans in week two. I meant to say allowing three points to the Texans IN THE SECOND HALF.

DUNDALK 8.00 EPAULAWN 17/2 £10 EW Ladbrokes 4 places

Downpatrick 17.35 £20 Dippedinmoonlight @1/1 PaddyPower

ahamoment 523 ayer 14/1 bet365

We revert to type with a torrid week of only 17 winners wiping out all of our profit and plummeting as far the other way into the red. Villains were Liverpool, Brighton and the surprisingly popular Reading, but not Everton. @Wtrylika and @waggy were the only previous double winners to keep up their run and make it 3 from 3 with Wtrylika able to go for the big stake bets now and increasing his lead at the top, achieving over 500 bank. @Data takes bet of the week with a 11.3 treble and Cuko next best with a 7.2 treble. Division 5 despite a losing week remain in overall profit.

Sorry all timing out last night a lot, was a rare night off the online grind, was playing between shots whilst playing a Shuffleboard tournament which my team won in a nail biting final

Winner and place -£0.25 day 203 -£40.75

Hats off to John when he does two centuries to become the second player ever to score 1000 centuries in competion.

I'm just tuning in again to the snooker forum after a long summer break. Ronnie was patchy tonight but his opponent did play well and had a good run of the ball too.

Mgladbach - Stuttgart, Over 2.5, 1.44 Hoffenheim - Leverkusen, Over 2.5, 1.33 113 pts, double