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3 out 4 placed ....I think we are dialled in 😁 ...ready to go live Saturday now

Best day so far today with 5 winners from 14 selections at 12.00, 10.70, 8.82, 8.29 and 17/4 for a profit of 30 points Now past the 150 mark 78 wins from 359 runs, profit 155.43

# Horse Odds Rating Val 1 Al Rufaa (FR) 10 107.30 78.29 2 Al Muqdad 15 106.86 110.29 3 Royal Velvet 10 106.78 72.68 4 Mostawaa 9.5 105.93 60.43 5 Lennon (FR) 5.5 103.35 19.73 6 Mister Mojito (IRE) 19 102.16 43.89 7 Carolus Magnus (IRE) 15 101.64 26.29 8 Visibility (IRE) 67 99.83 9 Naepoint (IRE) 12 98.55 10 Mr Swivell 11 97.94 11 Beylerbeyi 9.5 96.91 12 Havanarama 13 96.27 13 Bluelight Bay (IRE) 15 90.95 14 Lough Leane (IRE) 15 85.54 Fair to say the market has moved around a bit for this race! I've done Al Muqdad e/w at 15/1 to 4 places (can't see anyone going 5 now). Agree Al Rufaa was strong at 25/1 but that's long gone.

7.00 Yarmouth Yantarni 27 13/2 ( my odds 6/1) Pedro Valentino 24 3/1 ( my odds 7/1) Love Billy Boy 23 3/1 ( my odds 8/1) Farhh To Shy 23 13/2 ( my odds 8/1) From now on if my odds match the bookies at least I’m going to take the bet. As it happens here I’m half a point gained from them with top rated. 2 points win Yantarni .

A good day today, 3 winners, Under Curfew at 12.19, High Violet at 10.52 and Madame De Sevigne at 6.45 for a profit of 19 points. A new high cumulative total, 73 wins from 345 runs, LSP 125.09.

We are all different, I find that the draw is the most influential factor but usually because the "good" draws are overbet

Good Morning. It has been announced that Istabraq has passed away. Rest In Peace. Justin. X. 😭.

630 yarm Al rufaa 344 25/1 2.1 Miostawaa 341 12/1 1.05 Al muqdad. 338 8/1 0.71 Royal velvet. 333 9/1 0.75 Top two are value bets especially Al rufaa who is flagged as excellent value with one firm going 25/1 5 places ....1 PT Ew top two

Ballywood 4:00 Worcester 100/1. Probably a daft bet given the yard's win record (2/174, she buys them for her daughter Tabitha Worsley to ride). This one was a smart chaser for Alan King with a peak rating of 147. Had spinal surgery and off for 3 years. Some promise on comeback at this C/D last month, was just 6L behind coming into home straight then allowed to come home in own time, soon got the hang of these brush hurdles. Entitled to come on for that and dropped another 5lb to 110. Silly few quid at a huge price. 0.125pts e/w 100/1 Bet365 (4 places and BOG). P/L: 14.75pts. Rubbish, folded tamely.

6.00 yarm Rebel path 380 11/1 1.01 Mister bluebird. 373 12/1 1.04 Northcliffe. 367 12/1 0.95 Good good good 360 2/1 0.40 poor The fav good good is very very short and poor value here but bookies seem to fancy it strongly ... Value bets are rebel and mister ...1pt Ew both .....Northcliffe is value too but has a lesser form rating

410 ascot King of the plains 356 15/2 1.01 Individualism 341 7/2 0.4 Baltic. 335. 0.24 7/4 Miller spirit 335 1.94 16/1 Wasn't going to bet Friday but this race looks interesting ...Baltic is short priced fav but value bets are king of plains and miller spirit could run well at a big price (he's got same rating as fav !!) 1 PT Ew both

COURSE TIME SELECTION ODDS BOOKMAKER Doncaster 2.00 Thapa VC 5.50 BETFAIR Sandown 2.10 Spring Bloom 4.50 BET VICTOR Sandown 2.40 Pantile Warrior 7.00 BETFAIR Doncaster 3.05 Kings Merchant 4.25 LADBROKES Sandown 3.15 Alla Stella 6.00 LADBROKES Sandown 3.50 Spaceport 4.50 BETFAIR Doncaster 4.15 Eranthis 14.00 LADBROKES Sandown 4.20 Enrico Caruso 7.00 BETFAIR Yarmouth 5.30 Dream Harder 5.50 QUINNBET Yarmouth 6.00 Hover On The Wind 12.00 BETFAIR Newbury 6.15 Absolute Queen 7.00 BETFAIR Yarmouth 6.30 Royal Velvet 9.00 BETFAIR Yarmouth 7.00 Love Billy Boy 4.50 BETFAIR Yarmouth 7.30 Tropical Island 3.00 BETFAIR

A couple of 2yo pattern races today worth having a dabble in. (2 iffy favs imo) 315 sand 1. Alla Stella 118 54 172 5/1 2. Flaming Stone 118 42 160 15/8 3. The Terminus 117+ 44 161+ 8/1 (value) 650 leop 1. Beckman 134 85 219 3/1 2. Hotazhell 126 82 208 7/2 3. Scorthy Champ 117 45 162 8/1 Personally i will be backing The Terminus and Beckman singles and a doobul few rfc singles and rfc dooble

Ragosina 7 45 Neb/ 1/40th of a pt ew 33/1 Holy Fire 7 00 Yar/ 1/40th of a pt ew 40/1 P/L + 178 Pts

Yarmouth 7.30 Only Spoofing 28 16/1 ( my odds 8/1) Acclaim Express 27 9/1 ( my odds 17/2) Miss Attitude 25 6/1 ( my odds 9/1) Only Spoofing sits bottom of the betting but top on my ratings Interesting . 2 points win Spoofing .

You should comment on here more often, it's good to see your reasons for your picks

High violet and seargant Mayer and kirumu all placed

Second rated won at 12/1. Gordon Bennett was the only other to run well

4.10 at Ascot if you were actually asking 😁

You wouldn't happen to know when and where it's taking place would you?

2nd and 3rd finished 3rd and 4th but top rated last 😔 - 26

Pedro second rated wins and top rated 4th

Yes, there are so many variables in horse racing that it is impossible to be right most of the time. We are also never too young to learn, I have always been sceptical about speed figures but since I have been using them since June they have been a revelation with over 100 points profit. Even then 79% of my bets have been losers.

Well if you want my opinion 😂 on courses and draws its quite simple. What type of race are you dealing with? I will just digress a tad here and ask, how do you think Irish horses come over here for the Cheltenham races h'caps chucked in? they didn't get well h'capped by natural processes that's for sure. Back to the draw Frankel (obvious best example) won 14 races never got beat by the draw or anything else. @richard-westwood what you do works you make a profit yes? Well you can't be right every time as non of us can and sometimes when you identify an anomaly like your view on the Irish races the answer is simple don't waste your time on them there are plenty of other races to rate elsewhere. You can't rate for every track that's for sure. Okay it appears that some horse do well at certain courses, is that- a) true? b) Its the "owners" local track or c) Any other factor? quote ""We are having a day at Yarmouth, can you get the horse ready?" Also bear in mind with H/caps not many horses can survive winning 4/5 hcaps in a season and remain competitive so their h/cap must go up and down why else do you see terms like "back to its winning mark", how did it get back to it's winning mark? Simple, by losing. There is a tendency among punters to want to believe that the game is 95% straight, it isn't, those of us old enough to remember the Ramsdens and notice stuff also remember that when they packed up and dispersed their horses to other trainers they remarkably had great strike rates for their next 3 runs. Another term used "a group horse in a handicap" how did that happen? So in conclusion we must accept our losses with as much grace as we accept your wins or put more simply, be honest with ourselves and say I was wrong on that one, we can all find excuses for rating/picking losers and some are valid but it does not change the result or get you your money back. @MCLARKE is doing well with his speed figures he takes many things into account from my understanding but just as i do he/his ratings pick more losers than winners. Imagine how wide a spread sheet would have to be to include every possibility and then rank all those possibilities. You would pretty soon get far away from your original idea. Mordin once said it is ridiculous to have a seller with the same speed rating as a Derby winner so it needed adjustments and i agreed with him until it dawned on me that sellers never race against a derby winners so it didn't matter. Best tool i have got is Occam's Razor. 😉

"I’m cold and I’m hungry and I’m in Dundalk I’ve got no bus fare, I’ve gotta walk It’s raining soup and I’ve got a fork Where be my camper van?" (From "Bob Wilson - Anchorman" by Half Man Half Biscuit.) I think there are quite a few race course references in their songs. "Sometimes I set out for Ludlow Sometimes I end up in Chepstow" from "Grafting Haddock in the George" being the one that most springs to mind.

Even my friends curse me when I bet on Irish 🤣🤣......it's ridiculously bad .....they just don't bother betting because the results are stupid .....you can have a horse rated 400 ....and a 50/1 rated 344 .....and the 344 will win by over five lengths over the 400 .....it's that bad and you just think wtf 😒...time and time again .....I'm either missing a vital piece or all the figures for the races over there are totally inaccurate ....( Course standards ....postmarks etc .) Which is possible .....I just don't know ...all I know is it doesn't happen in France 🤣🤣

Yes Al muqdad would probably be the overall value bet now given the prices ....it's a nice bet

I hope you don't Richard. I've heard you say before that you don't like Irish racing, but i hope you still rate the odd race. I will stick with what i said yesterday about the draw, which means your top rated should be upgraded for running well, but on the wrong side of the track along with your 4th. Transcendental was given an awful ride, claimer went off way too fast (if i was looking at the right horse, watched on tiny screen and couldn't hear commentry) and no man or computer can allow for that or the fact that i believe the going changed from morning to afternoon. Tawaazon, which i believe was the one you bet on, i also thought had a decent ew chance on last years form, even if still carrying a bit too much weight imo. (went from 65 up to 92, but is now on 81) But it found form (immedietly) after switching stables, but has not done much since another stable switch. So your ratings were not as bad as you think imo and i hope you carry on doing a few Irish races, you really can find some nice priced winners. Good luck with your new system anyway.

Subject to running ..... 150 ascot Bountiful 406 6/1 0.60 Simmering 393 9/4 0.27 poor Magic mild 385 25/1 1.97 excellent Going live with bets Saturday ....so good race to start as long as all run ....1 PT Ew bountiful because top of form .....value bet is magic mild who has been way overpriced by bookies ....also 1 PT Ew

Staking plan: 1pt e/w on each-ways, 1pt each on top 20/30s

Opted for Theegala and Horschel, wins only. Was going to go Burns as well as no other tours (not bothered with LIV), but left him out Dad has went Horschel and Bhatia.

Christ ...even with this stay away from Irish richee🤣

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Can pop any ratings for weekend in here ......I'd already the king George Continuous 497 1.11 10/1 Luxembourg. 493 1.08 10/1 August Rodin. 483 0.35 5/4 Sunway. 478. 1.06 10/1 Currently ....August Rodin looks terrible value back up to 12f ....I think he's better at 10f .... So continuous and 2nd string Luxembourg look the value bets with a run ....but will he run all 3 ??

Did MGM give you your P45 @MCLARKE

Just touched off...2nd!

Another place for me, the quest for the inaugural winner goes on!

Mountain Bike - Women the fav is Pauline Ferrand-Prevot all bookie are mostly odds on but i see WH is evens if you have a bet

I do know that the draw at certain tracks over certain distances does effect races in Ireland, just like some in the UK, but i'm afraid i'm no expert and i don't always agree with "what the papers say" or "atr" etc, etc. (sometimes they don't even agree with each other!) Naas for example has a chute to allow a straight 5 and 6f (yesterdays race) and races i've seen seem to come over to the right, right-middle, (high numbers are that side) and i believe it matters more when it's wet, (soft/heavy) not as much when dry, which is why i was a little surprised that a group yesterday stayed on the left rail because i heard it was light showers and the going seemed to change from good to yielding. (i don't know for a fact, but i've just always assumed that there must be a slight slope from right to left, but i could be wrong) Not as bad over 7f and 8f as should be able to get in place before the turn to the straight, but 10f and 1m 4f i would think a low draw is best as you're turning all the way round to the chute of the 7 and 8f and could have a wide trip for quite a few furlongs. I'm not very good at remembering the courses that i've looked at in the past, i will normally get jogged on the day and certain things come back to me, but Leopardstown today, if i'm remembering correctly, i looked at within the past couple of weeks and the draw for the 6f race is important (possibly 7f as well, not sure they have a 5f race there because it would have to start on the bend) From what i've seen you don't want an inside draw (1 or 2, assuming that all stalls go from right to left and i don't know that they do) although you would think you would as the turn comes up quite quick, but i've noticed so many just get stuck on the rail with no where to go, but at the same time maybe not a wide draw as you could be adding on some extra yardage. Having said that, i'm not even sure i've got the right track, but i think i have, they have tracks like Naas and Navan, Killarney and Kilbeggan, Leopardstown,Limerick and Listowel and i get confused. What i do remember is Dundalk is their aw track and Laytown, i believe , is run on a sandy beach!

Thursday 25/07/2024 No Selections

Yes

Windermere 12.42 france

Scrub this race ...cut up

York dash Silkie wilkie 441 9/1 0.83 Korker. 433 10/1 0.88 Ferrous. 424 1.24 16/1 Radio goo goo 422 1.01 12/1 Given strength of form the top 2 are the ones to back 2pt Ew both top 2

@black rabbitCan you believe that ...28 to 18 ...FFS

P/l out £778.10 in £788.18 todays dodgy customers

Yes i fully agree, farting about with the draw puts you off far more winners than eejit jockeys that do eejit things. i remember a jockey called Philip Robinson who could win from any draw anywhere even Chester.

Cheers Zil, high praise from you bottom line's more like it. 🤣

I’ve had a go . Bit different to how I rate handicaps but let’s see how it does . Sunway 29 14/1 Bluestocking 26 9/2 Auguste Rodin 24 6/4 Dubai Honour 24 22/1 Middle Earth 21 9/1 2 points win Sunway