Racing Chat - Saturday 20th May

[The Brigadier]

A terrific afternoon’s racing with the ITV team bringing us four quality races from Newbury with the feature race the Lockinge Stakes at 15:35 and another three handicaps from an interesting card at Newmarket. The ground is drying and should ride perfect good ground at both tracks. Here are my best racing tips to beat the bookies.

 

 

Newbury 13:50

We start the afternoon’s racing off we an eight runner renewal of the 6F listed BetVictor Carnarvon Stakes. A warm favourite here is the Charlie Appleby trained Noble Style who reverts to sprinting having failed to stay a mile when running credibly in finishing 6th, beaten 5 1/2L, to Chaldean in the 2000 Guineas a fortnight ago. Unbeaten as a two year old including the Gimcrack at York sprinting may be his game and as he is officially rated 7lb and upwards better than his opposition he can strike under William Buick. The two improvers against him are the Charlie Hills trained Rabaah who’s looked a useful sort in winning at 6F at Lingfield and Wolverhampton earlier this year on the all weather. This is however a big step up in grade (he’s officially rated 27lb inferior to Noble Style) and whilst he can run well he’s unlikely to trouble the favourite. The other improver is the Julie Camacho trained Shaquille. Camacho has a proven touch with her sprinters but he too has to step up from his latest handicap win which came on soft ground at the Guineas meeting at Newmarket.

Maybe the biggest threat to Noble Style is the Aidan O’Brien trained Aesop’s Fable who on official ratings only has 7lb to find but this should really be Noble Style’s to lose and he can win here and put himself in pole position for his next target the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot next month for which he’s currently a top priced 6/1 for. It’s probably worth taking that 6/1 as if, as I expect, he wins well here then his odds for Royal Ascot are likely to tumble.

 

NOBLE STYLE 3 points win @ 10/11 Betfred

NOBLE STYLE 2 points win @ 6/1 bet365 (Commonwealth Cup, Royal Ascot, June 23rd)

 

Newmarket 14:05

The first of three handicaps shown by ITV this afternoon is the class 4 1M 0-85 contest which has attracted 11 runners. John and Thady Gosden saddle an interesting runner in the handicap debutant Ceanna, a winner of a Southwell novice stakes back in December. Her owner George Strawbridge is over from his base in America to watch the likes of Free Wind and Epictetus at York so one would think the filly will be tuned up for this. Sean Woods’s Gulmarg ran a decent third at the last meeting here and with the winner winning well at Chester since should run well along with William Haggas’s Good Gracious who’s Newcastle class 5 handicap win last October has worked out well with the runner up and third both winning since.

Andrew Balding’s Totnes was back to form on the all weather last time at Lingfield but has been re-assessed and is now 5lb higher. It will be interesting to see how she handles the turf today under David Probert.

The horse I like is the Harry and Roger Charlton trained Acotango. The Charlton’s are having a rather lean time of it currently with 42 runs and 118 days since their last winner but they’ve had many placed recently with five runner ups in the past fortnight so stable form isn’t too much of a concern. The horse ran a stormer following a gelding operation when a one length second to the progressive Racingbreaks Ryder at Haydock, form which has been franked by subsequent wins by the winner and the third. A 3lb rise may not be enough to stop him putting the Charltons back in the winners enclosure.

 

ACOTANGO 1 points each way @ 9/2 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Newbury 14:25

Seven go to post for the Group 3 Al Rayyan Stakes (known as The Aston Park Stakes to us of a certain age!). Like the Carnarvon Stakes previously we have a warm Godolphin favourite in the globe trotting Yibir. Not seen for 317 days he is the clear form horse with a rating of 119 which is 9lb and upwards better than any of his six rivals.

A reproduction of his Princess Of Wakes Group 2 win last July would be good enough to win this but his record following an absence of more than 100 days reads 332 and although he’s the best horse here first time out may not be the best time to be with him especially at such a short price.

So who can we take him on with? The most obvious is the Ralph Beckett trained, Frankie Dettori ridden filly Haskoy who was very lightly raced as a three year old winning twice and finishing a highly credible 4th in the St Leger. She has her tongue tied down here and with the Beckett team amongst the winners recently and running at 24% win ratio she’ll do for me. Andrew Balding’s saddles his mightily impressive dual all weather winner Old Harrovian who missed Chester last week due to softening ground but surely this is a step too far too early for him. He’s officially rated 25lb behind Yibir and what a shame his trainer couldn’t send him down the handicap route!

The Gosdens run Israr who also missed Chester due to soft terrain whilst William Haggas re-introduces the promising Gaassee who hadn’t been seen since flopping in last year’s Ebor in August.

 

HASKOY 1 point win @ 4/1 William Hill

 

Newmarket 14:40

A eleven runner 0-105 three year old handicap is up next and is a race well worth following over the forthcoming months. Roger Varian’s Revenite is an interesting runner making his handicap debut following wins at Ascot and Kempton last September and is worth monitoring in the market. Kevin Ryan has been amongst the winners this week at York and saddles his Washington Heights who was runner up in a similar handicap over course and distance at the Guineas meeting. Better ground today may well suit and he has claims along with the unexposed Ararat, trained by David Simcock who’s making his handicap debut and doesn’t look that badly treated here with his latest second at Wolverhampton back in November franked by subsequent wins for the 4th and 5th from that race.

The Kevin Philippart De Foy trained Expert Angel has been making hay on the all weather this year winning three times over this trip rising some 17lb and it remains to be seen how he copes reverting back to turf where he’s 0 from 3.

My pick however is the Clive Cox trained Eminency who was unlucky in the run when last seen at Kempton in April in not getting a clear run up the inside and finishing with plenty of running in him. Off of the same mark and already proven on decent turf ground (he was pulled out on soft ground at the last meeting) he looks the bet here although I will reduce my stake as the Cox team are not in the best of form at the moment going 17 days and 30 runs since his last winner.

 

EMINENCY 1 point win @ 3/1 BetVictor

 

Newbury 15:00

An excellent renewal of the three year old handicap the BetVictor London Gold Cup run over 10F of the round course and a race that will be worth following over the forthcoming months. The weights are headed by the Godolphin owned Bold Act who surprisingly has been gelded since taking a keen hold and flopping at Newmarket at the Craven meeting. He has it to do here giving weight away to some promising types.

Aidan O’Brien sends over Bertinelli who is still in the Derby and is making his handicap debut here. He could be competitive under Ryan Moore.

Roger Varian saddles Exoplanet who has some fancy entries of his own and ran into the smart Military Order on his re-appearance here on soft ground and wasn’t disgraced in finishing a 4L second with Thursday’s winner Chesspiece just behind in third. He’s one for the short list although a draw of 16 is hardly a plus.

Royal Rhyme bolted up at the Newmarket Guineas meeting but both of his two career wins have come on soft ground and the drying conditions may not be ideal.

Desert Hero is a must for any short list having been entered in the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot recently (also still holds a Derby entry as well). This is his handicap debut having won at Haydock and Redcar on soft/heavy as a juvenile although his best effort came on good ground when third in the Group 3 Solario Stakes at Sandown in August. If his entries are anything to go by his mark of 94 could be very workable.

There’s many others who could be given a chance with my best outsider at a big price being Richard Spencer’s Pjanoo who’s making his first appearance in a handicap and kept some good company as a juvenile.

Desert Hero has to be the bet here although I can’t resist a saver on Exoplanet despite his wide draw.

 

DESERT HERO 2 points win @ 9/2 bet365

EXOPLANET 1 point win @ 5/1 bet365

 

Newbury 15:35

The day’s feature race is the Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes ,a Group one contest run over the straight mile and we have a excellent sized field of thirteen for this year’s renewal. Preference has to be with the Charlie Appleby trained Modern Games who is as tough as they come having travelled around the world running consistently. A drawn of 13 may be deemed a disadvantage on the wing but William Buick will no doubt have a plan to drop him in and come with a late (hopefully winning!) run.

The Gosden’s Laurel is taking on the boys for the first time in her life but is still relatively unexposed and can make a race of it with Frankie Dettori aiming to add to his last season riches. Mutasaabeq got the run of the race last time of Newmarket and was also giving weight all round. A reproduction of that run puts him bang in here with a winning chance but I’m just not sure whether he’ll be given as much rope out front on this occasion with the likes of front runner Jadoomi in the race.

 

MODERN GAMES 2 points win @ 3/1 William Hill

LAUREL 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365

 

 

Newmarket 15:50

A seven runner class 2 0-105 handicap for four year olds and upwards is up next. The one they all have to beat is undoubtably the William Haggas trained five year old Montassib who appears to have more to give. Unsuited by heavy ground on his re-appearance in the Lincoln he then got no sort of run at Haydock last time when forcing his way through on the rails and flashing home under Cieran Fallon beaten only two lengths. Not young Fallon’s finest ride but off of the same handicap mark can make amends today.

The first three home in a similar grade handicap run over course and distance at the Guineas meeting renew rivalry with Charlie Johnstone’s The Gatekeeper beating Ralph Beckett’s Star Of Orion by a length with David & Nicola Barron’s Persuasion half a length away in third. On the revised terms there shouldn’t be much between the trio although they may all have to go to beat the selection.

 

MONTASSIB 2 points win @ 3/1 bet365

 

All odds were accurate at time of writing.

[richard-westwood]

London gold cup 

Royal rhyme  9.0 6/1

Bertinelli  8.4  8/1 

Very open race with lots of potential improvers ......computer has royal rhyme well clear 🤔...but that's on soft so everything will hinge on how he takes to the better ground ...if it doesn't inconvenience him then I think he will run well....I'll try 10pt ew top 2 

[richard-westwood]

Lockinge 

Light Infantry   8.7 10/1 

Mutasaabeq   8.6  13/2 

Laurel     8.2 

Top 2 are good value ew ...but laurel could be a danger with frankie up  ...I'll try 10pt ew top 2 and ew doubles with top 2 both races 

[MCLARKE]

The big handicap this Saturday is the London Gold Cup at Newbury. This premier handicap is for 3-year-olds and is run over 1 mile and 2 furlongs. Off time is 15.00.

16 go to post and with most bookmakers offering 5 places it makes it a good betting proposition.

 

I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.

Horses should ideally have had a reasonable rest. Those that last ran more than 31 days ago have won 6 times form 28 attempts with a profit of 16 points at Betfair Starting Price. Those that have run more recently have just 2 wins from 69 attempts with a loss of 54 points.

It is best to stick with those horses at the top of the betting. From the top 3 in the betting there have been 6 wins from 26 runs and a profit of 19 points.

Those drawn in stalls 1 to 3 have the best record with 4 wins from 22 runs and a profit of 11 points.

 

Only 1 horse matches these criteria.

DESERT HERO 9/2

I suggest backing this each way with bookmakers offering 5 places.

 

[kensland]

Patent.

3.50. Newm. Star of Orion        5/1    unpl

2.25. Newb. Haskoy                  10/3   1st 

2.05. Newm Totnes                     4/1   unpl

stk. 3.50.      rtn. 111.50

Good luck all.

Edited May 20, 2023 by kensland

[kensland]

Doncaster

Single.

8.20. Open Market         11/1

stk. 5.00     rtn. 60.00

Newbury

Patent

4.45. Bluestockings       6/5

3.00. Royal Rhyme         11/2

4.10. Outbreak            15/2

stk. 3.50      113.50

Good luck all.

Edited May 19, 2023 by kensland

[Villa Chris]

2.45 Bangor  El Borracho 2/1

Pretty consistent in whatever sphere he runs in and won on the flats two weeks ago which will have him fit for this drop in grade over hurdles . Obvious choice .

6.35 Uttoxeter Cap Du Nord 6/1

Drops a couple of grades into this class 3. Inconsistent and he could be getting his mark down for a bigger prize but the class horse in the race . I have Risk And Roll just behind him who ran well last time out. 
 

7.05 Uttoxeter Uhtred 4/1

Good run last time out at 2.5 and looks like he needs this extra distance . Certainly won’t have it easy though in what is a competitive race . 
 

5 points win all 3 

[calva decoy]

4 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

2.45 Bangor  El Borracho 2/1

Pretty consistent in whatever sphere he runs in and won on the flats two weeks ago which will have him fit for this drop in grade over hurdles . Obvious choice .

6.35 Uttoxeter Cap Du Nord 6/1

Drops a couple of grades into this class 3. Inconsistent and he could be getting his mark down for a bigger prize but the class horse in the race . I have Risk And Roll just behind him who ran well last time out. 
 

7.05 Uttoxeter Uhtred 4/1

Good run last time out at 2.5 and looks like he needs this extra distance . Certainly won’t have it easy though in what is a competitive race . 
 

5 points win all 3 

I've backed CHAMERON in Uttoxeter's 6.35 each way bet365 14/1 ( 4 places ) , maybe a bit high in the weights & would like to see soft in the going but when came to UK last won at Hexham & the only Irish raider on the card . non runner .

Edited May 20, 2023 by calva decoy

[Villa Chris]

10 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

I've backed CHAMERON in Uttoxeter's 6.35 each way bet365 14/1 ( 4 places ) , maybe a bit high in the weights & would like to see soft in the going but when came to UK last won at Hexham & the only Irish raider on the card .

What I don’t get is the going stick at Uttoxeter is 5.7 and at Bangor it’s 7.3 with both going described as Good . I live near Uttoxeter and the past couple of days we’ve had some heavy downpours so maybe it is good ground but on the softer side of good. 

[kensland]

Patent. 

3.42. Thirsk. Hiya Maite        4/1   unpl

2.40. Newm.  Quinault           3/1    1st 

1.30. Newm. South Kensington     3/1   unpl

stk 3.50   rtn 74.00

Good luck all. 

Edited May 20, 2023 by kensland

[richard-westwood]

513 newb 

Sir Thomas Grisham 8.2 6/1 

Leap abroad   8.1 11/2 

Epsom faithful   8.1 14/1 

Under the twilight  8.0 28/1 

Twilight madness   7.6 

Very close race ...moreover than betting suggests ....bookies fancy the top 2 but I think there's loads of value In Epsom and under ....so I'll try 5pt ew both and hope they spring a surprise 

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection

Newmarket 3.50

STAR OF ORION

[calva decoy]

3 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

What I don’t get is the going stick at Uttoxeter is 5.7 and at Bangor it’s 7.3 with both going described as Good . I live near Uttoxeter and the past couple of days we’ve had some heavy downpours so maybe it is good ground but on the softer side of good. 

I don't trust any clerk of courses or cards these days , I used to bet on French racing start & end of flat season when going in soft / heavy but lost count the amount of times Sporting Life / At The Races / Racing Post list going at French courses as soft / heavy in the morning but afternoon it's Good , something's not right .

[Bang on]

5.35 Uttox - Dancingontheedge - 7/2 ... one from my tracker - for me it was a non-trier LTO when a beaten favourite. It was ridden at the back before taking a very scenic route and running an extra furlong to the others ... the trainers other runner won the race. It is Paul Nichols only runner at Uttoxeter where he has a 21% strike rate. He also has recent form of 2 wins , 3 placed, from 8 runners so is in form as well. Horse wears a tongue tie first time.

[Libby48]

Uttoxeter

18:05pm - Midnight Soldier 2nd 

18:35pm - Landofsmiles 1st

19:03pm - Hill View 2nd

19:35pm Dogem by Design 3rd

20: 35  pm - If Karl's Berg did 3rd

Edited May 20, 2023 by Libby48

[maxironchin]

14.40 Newmarket

Quinault 2pt Win

Selection has great form and is a course and distance winner here.

[Zilzalian]

335 Newbury - Interesting observation, sometimes its good to go back and look at previous time figures, the observation is that lusail (40/1) and Berkshire Shadow (33/1) were the fastest at two and were no slow coaches at three.

[The Equaliser]

Posted a L15 on the daily L15 for 2 pts

L15 0.10 + 0.50 acca

2.10 Ban Lady Tremaine 7/1 (PU)

3.00 Nb Bertinelli 5/1

3.35 NB Light Infrantry 11/1

3.42 Thsk Mattice 10/1

1 x L15 + 0.50 acc :not poss  ret 3898.10 = 2 pts

---------------------------------------------------------------------

2.25 Nb Haskoy 9/4

4.17 Thsk All the Kings Men 7/2

5.18 Nb Leap Abroad 9/2

1 x 0.50 win Trixie = 2 pts poss ret 68.82

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3.35 Nb Mutasaabeq 0.50 w at 7/2 and Light Infrantry 0.50 w qt 12/1

3.42 Thsk Mattice 0.50 w at 12/1

Total stakes = 7.50

-----------------------------------------------------------

2 winners but not coupled

7.05 Uhtred 2 pts win at 4.9 (last leg of daily L15)

Total staked  = 9.50

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

No luck with Uhtred.  Just one winner in a L!5 today returning 1.60.  Makes my MTD -41.55 and YTD -111.90

 

Edited May 20, 2023 by The Equaliser

[fd1972uk]

Hopefully the fav 300 comes in for a double with haskoy.

Got a few others mind you in this race.

Alrehb, lusail and Havana by the sea on ew today.

Got a few coral bets to use too, so pop on some later.

 

Edited May 20, 2023 by fd1972uk

[richard-westwood]

On 5/19/2023 at 10:14 AM, richard-westwood said:

London gold cup 

Royal rhyme  9.0 6/1

Bertinelli  8.4  8/1 

Very open race with lots of potential improvers ......computer has royal rhyme well clear 🤔...but that's on soft so everything will hinge on how he takes to the better ground ...if it doesn't inconvenience him then I think he will run well....I'll try 10pt ew top 2 

Bertinelli wins ..returns 116 .00 ......ew doubles with the next race still on now too

[Zilzalian]

50 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

335 Newbury - Interesting observation, sometimes its good to go back and look at previous time figures, the observation is that lusail (40/1) and Berkshire Shadow (33/1) were the fastest at two and were no slow coaches at three.

Both ran well and the EW money came on Berkshire Shadow

[fd1972uk]

1610 new wanes

Ewnon alrehb 

1718 Sir Thomas Graham

Leap aboard

Success from today  bertinelli and small double on shaquille and modern games so far 

[Tedthewolf]

4.17 thirsk- ANOTHER BATT 7/1 5p bog

5.18 nb- POPMASTER 13/2 bog 5p

2pts e/w double 4pts invested

[richard-westwood]

4 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

513 newb 

Sir Thomas Grisham 8.2 6/1 

Leap abroad   8.1 11/2 

Epsom faithful   8.1 14/1 

Under the twilight  8.0 28/1 

Twilight madness   7.6 

Very close race ...moreover than betting suggests ....bookies fancy the top 2 but I think there's loads of value In Epsom and under ....so I'll try 5pt ew both and hope they spring a surprise 

Sir thomas 2nd .....under the twilight 3rd !!!..ew money 💰...good run 

[Bang on]

6 hours ago, Bang on said:

5.35 Uttox - Dancingontheedge - 7/2 ... one from my tracker - for me it was a non-trier LTO when a beaten favourite. It was ridden at the back before taking a very scenic route and running an extra furlong to the others ... the trainers other runner won the race. It is Paul Nichols only runner at Uttoxeter where he has a 21% strike rate. He also has recent form of 2 wins , 3 placed, from 8 runners so is in form as well. Horse wears a tongue tie first time.

2nd 9/2 beaten a Neck !

[Villa Chris]

No winners 

P/L jump season start date 8th October 2022 -18.57

[Trotter]

Noticed a live Yoube stream for the Preakness Stakes which is due off at Midnight....... second leg of the Triple Crown and the Kentucky Derby winner, Mage, is running

Stream has the American ads !

 

[Trotter]

oh ........ the live stream has been taken down .......... a few minutes before the race

Ah well........ that's YouTube ......  😜

[Zilzalian]

44 minutes ago, Trotter said:

Noticed a live Yoube stream for the Preakness Stakes which is due off at Midnight....... second leg of the Triple Crown and the Kentucky Derby winner, Mage, is running

Stream has the American ads !

 

Its on bet365