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Racing Chat - Saturday March 4th

The Brigadier
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The Brigadier

The Brigadier

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Posted
Ten days away from the Cheltenham Festival but there’s still plenty of winners to be found with the ITV team showing nine races from three meetings at Kelso, Newbury and Doncaster. The ground is good at Newbury just slightly softer at Doncaster and softer still at Kelso with good to soft (soft in places) the call at the Borders track. Here’s my thoughts on the nine races.
 
Kelso 1.15
The afternoons bumper ITV schedule kicks off with a seven runner class 3 2m 5F 133 yards novices handicap chase which has attracted seven runners. Dan Skelton takes a strong team of five to the Borders track and saddles the likely favourite here in top weight Sholokjack who was an impressive 12L winner at Lingfield 32 days ago. He should run well but is a short enough price for one that’s been raised 11lb for his latest victory. Warren Greatrex’s Bill Baxter was still in contention when crashing out four from home at Hereford last time and is a possible although my preference is for the Nicky Richards trained Castle Rushen, who’s unseated his rider on two of his three fencing starts but was on the bridle and travelling well when dislodging his pilot at Newcastle 32 days ago. Sean Quinlan rides and he looks the value play against the favourite Sholokjack.
 
CASTLE RUSHEN 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 123
 
Doncaster 1.30
A valuable six runner 2M class 2 handicap chase is the first of two races shown by ITV at Doncaster. The likely favourite is the Skelton’s Calico who is the horse responsible for giving Arkle Hope Jonbon a scare at Warwick last month. Rushed up by Harry Skelton he looked likely to cause a major upset at one stage and with the handicapper reacting by just putting him up a pound can run well with Bridget Andrews taking over from her other half Harry Skelton who’s riding for the yard at Kelso. Xcitations and Hasankey are closely matched on recent Wetherby form although may just be in the grip of the assessor currently. Top weight Pay The Piper may be the one to give Calico most to do. Trained by Ann Hamilton he stepped his form up when winning at Musselburgh a month ago going up 6lb for that effort. He’ll run well but I’ll stick with Calico who may be a bit better than his current handicap mark of 137.
 
CALICO 1 point win @ 7/4 bet365
 
Kelso 1.50
A bumper maximum field of sixteen assemble for the bet365 Moorebattle Hurdle, a two mile handicap hurdle with a guaranteed £100k on offer in prize money. The likely favourite and the one they all have to beat is the Irish challenger McTigue trained by the maestro Emmet Mullins. Mullins took this very prize a couple of years ago with The Shunter who went on to win at the Cheltenham Festival a fortnight later winning a £100k bonus in the doing. His raider here, who is making his handicap debut and claims a valuable 10lb age allowance as the only four year old in the race, has four entries at Cheltenham and his trainer will no doubt have his eyes on landing the bonus again. Top weight Colonel Mustard has dallied with fences this season but goes back over timber now and had some solid novice form last season for trainer Lorna Fowler. Last years winner was Brian Ellison’s Cormier and he too has had an unsuccessful stint over fences this season. He’s back on a mark only 2lb higher than last year’s gutsy win and is a player although he could ideally do with some rain. Teddy Blue ran a stormer to finish 3rd beaten 12L in the Betfair Handicap Hurdle at Newbury last month and off of a 3lb lower mark looks sure to be in the shake up for Gary Moore and 5lb conditional jockey Caoilin Quinn who was in the saddle on that occasion. There’s others with claims including an old friend of mine Lebowski who’s going in a first time tongue tie here. A tough race but one thinks that the Mullins runner could have been laid out for this and despite his short price is worth backing.
 
McTIGUE 2 points win @ 9/2 bet365
 
Newbury 2.10
An open looking class 3 2M 4 1/2F handicap hurdle for horses aged eight years and older with a healthy field of eleven declared. Plenty can be given chances none more so than last year’s winner Bold Plan trained by Evan Williams and ridden by his daughter Isobel Williams who can claim 3lb. He took this under Isobel off of 123 and returns today off of a 3lb higher mark and looks primed for a big run. Top weight Dargiannini is trained by rookie trainer Harry Derham and has claims although a 8lb rise for an emphatic Uttoxeter win will not make things easy for the gelded son of Fame And Glory. Christian Williams was the trainer to follow last weekend and he saddles Pileon who is certainly a very well handicapped horse nowadays some 18lb lower than when in his pomp. He showed fair form last time and it will be no shock were he to take this. In a competitive race I’ll take a chance on one at a big race in the Milton Harris trained Stimulating Song who can race today off of a handicap mark 11lb lower than his last victory which came at Cheltenham in November 2020. Following a long lay off of 713 days he’s not beaten a horse in four starts coming down a stone in the weights. I’m relying on a wind operation getting him back to his old self and at a double figure prize is worth chancing to small stakes each way with enhanced odds.
 
STIMULATING SONG 1 point each way @ 22/1 Betfred 1/5 1234
 
Kelso 2.25
A decent renewal of the 2m 2F Premier Novices’ Hurdle with a strong field of 11 facing the starter. Emmet Mullins brings his useful bumper horse Feronily over with McTigue and The Shunter and on his smart Irish bumper form should be a player here if able to jump on his hurdling debut. Fergal O’Brien’s Accidental Rebel hasn’t been seen since winning the Persian War Novice Hurdle at Chepstow last October and as well as the lay off is the only runner in the field to carry a penalty (5lb). Sandy Thomson is a trainer to take seriously at this track and he runs Carcari Castle who’s won twice at the track this season. His latest form has been boosted by the subsequent victory of the runner up in his latest win and is an interesting runner. Nemean Lion had the re-opposing Colonel Harry 2 3/4L behind on the same terms as today’s when 3rd and 4th in the grade one Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown in January and can confirm that form and take this valuable contest for Kerry Lee who was among the winners on Thursday.
 
NEMEAN LION 2 points win @ 9/2 bet365
 
Newbury 2.45
A small but select field of seven assemble for this years renewal of the Greatwood Gold Cup, a handicap chase run over 2M 4F. We have two course specialist here in joint top weights Zanza who’s record at the Berkshire track is five wins from six starts whilst Paint The Dream is three wins from four starts. Zanza kept on well to beat Hitman last time out in the Betfair Denman Chase here over just short of three miles and drops in trip today. He has been clobbered by the handicapper though, who has shot him up some 15lb for that win. Philip Hobbs’ nine year old can run well but may be weighted out of it now. Fergal O’Brien’s Paint The Dream won this race last year by 15L and although he’s 11lb higher won again here in November by 14L from a mark just 4lb lower than today’s. He may be better handicapped than his main rival Zanza and looks the bet here. Paul Nicholls has an amazing record in the race and relies upon the ex Venetia Williams trained Espoir De Guye who’s also had his wind tinkered with since we last saw him 106 days ago. He’s worth monitoring in the market. Gemirande is in good form and at the right end of the handicap and along with bottom weight Lord Baddesley can also play a part in the finish. A tough call with preference for course specialist Paint The Dream.
 
PAINT THE DREAM 2 points win @ 3/1 bet365
 
Kelso 3.00
A valuable class 2 handicap hurdle run over 2m 5F is up next and has attracted a fair sized field of ten hurdlers. It has a very open look about it with several arriving in good form. None more so than the Harriet Graham & Gary Rutherford trained Dancewiththewind who’s chasing a hat trick following handicap success’s at Wetherby and here this winter rising just 7lb in the handicap. He should be thereabouts today. Also likely to be thereabouts is the Skelton runner Santos Blue who is also chasing a hat trick of wins having won at Wetherby and Chepstow under 7lb conditional jockey Ben Sutton who keeps the ride today. He’s been raised 19lb for those two success’s mind and will need to step up once more. Donny Boy is an interesting outsider whom his trainer Nick Alexander has always rated highly but he’s blown out twice this season over fences and returns to timber having had his wind tinkered with. I can’t resist a saver on him but my main bet has to be Nicky Richards’ Nells Son who won the big novice hurdle on the card last season. He’s two from two at the Borders track and returned to hurdles last time following two goes over fences when 6th at Cheltenham. He’s down 2lb today and has had a wind operation since last seen. He looks sure to be thereabouts and is the selection.
 
NELLS SON 1 point each way 6/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234
DONNY BOY 1/2 point each way 14/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234
 
Doncaster 3.15
The Grimthorpe Handicap Chase is run over 3M 2F of Town Moor and we have eight chasers facing the starter this year. Last year’s well backed winner Undersupervision is back to defend his title for trainer and son combo of Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies off of the same handicap mark and look likely to go close. The one they all have to beat however is the Skybet Chase victor Copper’s Class who appeared to relish the step up to three miles for the first time when ridden out to beat Cap Du Nord (winner since) by a length. The extra two furlongs here shouldn’t be an issue as he certainly didn’t appear to be stopping at the end of that competitive handicap. Stuart Coltherd’s flag bearer was raised 5lb for that success but remains at the right end of the handicap still. Undersupervision unseated his rider two from home when under pressure in the race but re-opposes on 7lb better terms here. Kim Bailey’s top weight Does He Know is the other probable who can take a hand in the finish. He was a winner at Cheltenham on his favoured good ground back in November and off of just a 5lb higher handicap mark can also be thereabouts. A tough call with slight preference for Coopers Call.
 
COOPERS CALL 2 points win @ 5/2 William Hill
 
Kelso 3.35
Only five have declared for the £60k guaranteed bet365 Premier Chase, a listed race run over 2M 7 1/2F. Zanza is also declared at his favourite track Newbury which is his first preference so can be considered doubtful. Joint top rated here is Emmet Mullins’ The Shunter who won the big handicap a hurdle on this card a couple of years ago. He’s been a bit hit and miss since but has to be respected for such a warm combination of Mullins and JP McManus. Wishing And Hoping is thirteen years old now and it’s hard to think he can back up his latest win in a valuable veterans handicap at Sandown. Empire Steel has it to do and surely the one be with is the Dan Skelton trained Le Milos who won at Bangor on his re-appearance prior to taking last year’s Coral Gold Cup (the Hennessy in old money) by 1/2L from Remastered. He’s been off 98 days but has won after a break and can take this for team Skelton.
 
LE MILOS 2 points win @ 2/1 Bet365
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black rabbit

black rabbit

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Posted (edited)

EL Muchacho                                               1 50 Kel/               { £25 ew }    33/1

Banjaxed                                                       2 25 Kel/              {  £ 25 ew }  33/1

Enemy Coast Ahead                                    3 00 Kel/             {  £ 25 ew }   33/1

New Ross                                                      3 10 Nav/            { £ 25 ew  }   16/1

Edited by black rabbit
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MCLARKE

MCLARKE

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It is a quiet Saturday with Cheltenham being just over a week away. The most competitive handicap is the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso but this has only been run as a handicap since 2021 so there isn’t really enough data to base any meaningful conclusions on.

We will therefore concentrate on the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury. Greatwood is a charity for the welfare of retired racehorses. The race is run over a distance of 2 miles, 3 furlongs and 187 yards. It is open to horses aged 5 years or older.

There is a disappointing turnout of just 7 runners. However, some bookmakers offer each-way terms of 3 places which does offer some value.

 

The race has been lost to the weather twice in the last 9 years but we still have 7 years of statistics to analyse. These are my key conclusions.

Those horses high in the weights have a good record. Horses carrying more than 11st 2lbs have won 5 times from 34 runs with a level stakes profit of 7 points. Their lighter opposition have a record of 2 wins from 46 runs with a loss of 33 points.

Horses that won last time out do not have a good record. They have won just once from 17 attempts.

The market is a good guide. Those with forecast odds less than 13/2 have won 4 times from 20 runs with a profit of 4 points.

 

There is only 1 horse that matches these criteria.

PAINT THE DREAM – available at 3/1 with BET365 who are paying 3 places. Paint The Dream won this race last year under the same jockey, Conor Brace.

Although the price is short it is still worth backing it each-way.

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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

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3.00 Kelso 

Santos blue  8.2 7/2 

Raffertus return   8.0 8/1 

Nells son   7.7 

Well educated   7.5 

Very competitive race with questions ....can Santos blue improve ?....Will nells son get the dist ?.....Tricky......I'll try 10pt win Santos...5pt ew rafferty 

2pt win doubles top 2 in both above races  

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LEE-GRAYS

LEE-GRAYS

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Posted
36 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Just read an article in the sporting life about "tips" for Meydan tomorrow, Talk about "safe" anyone who ever read a racing newspaper could have come up with those selections. Don't knock yourself out Laura Joy why not just write Fav Fav Fav?

Couple for tomorrow 3 on my horses to follow ⚒⚒?

96210A83-1431-49A7-A59E-BA6739C2032F.png

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kensland

kensland

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Posted (edited)

Kelso.

Single. 

3.00. Mahons Glory        13/2    3rd 

stk.5.00.    rtn. 37.00.

Lingfield. 

Double. 

4.51. Jersey Gift      12/1       unpl

4.16. Fair and Square      8/1     unpl

singles & double. 

stk. 6.00.      rtn   147.33.

Good luck all. 

 

Edited by kensland
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Sporting Sam

Sporting Sam

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Posted

Morning all.

Two so far,

Lingfield 

TONE THE BARONE

Drops in class for a three runner handicap at lingfield after winning the listed race here last week. With Oisin Murphy in opposition it won't be clear cut, but on known form, Tone has a decent chance. Another race where free money is available to owners and trainers to simply turn up and have your horse on the telly but only three show up. 

Over in Navan

CASH THE CHEQUE 

Win

 

has good form in the book including twelve lengths second to lots of joy who goes straight to the festival. Won a bumper followed by a narrow defeat in the same sphere. But was ahead that day of jetara Jessica Harrington's subsequent listed winner. Wouldn't be winning out of turn here. Lots of runners yet to show their hand here  so look out for a big priced suprise here too. More if I can flesh that one out.

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kroni

kroni

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Posted

Meydan

1205 - Kemari @ 10/3 Unibet  |  Daramethos @ 25/1 e-w Skybet

1240 - On The Warpath @ 25/1 e-w Skybet  |  Secret Ambition @ 13/2 e-w Skybet |  Everfast @ 15/2 e-w Bet365

115 - Acklam Express @ 14/1 e-w Skybet  |  Khaadem @ 20/1 e-w Skybet

150 - Ami Please @ 3/1 Skybet

225 - Kafoo @ 11/1 e-w Hills  |  First Constitution @ 28/1 e-w Skybet  |  Ajuste Fiscal @ 25/1 e-w Skybet

310 - Rodaballo @ 28/1 e-w PP  |  San Donato @ 22/1 e-w Skybet

345 - Aegean Finale @ 33/1 e-w Hills  |  Shelir @ 20/1 e-w Bet365

420 - Ponntos @ 16/1 e-w PP  |  Colour Up @ 11/2 e-w Hills

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The Equaliser

The Equaliser

Posted
Posted (edited)

2.25 Kel Nemean Lion 10/3 (1 pt win at 5.3)

2.45 Nb Sebastapol 8/1 (1 pt win at 10.0)

3.25 Nb Artistic choice 9/2 (1 pt win at 9/2)

4.51 Lin Easy Equation 9/2 (1 pt win at 9/2)

1 x 0.20 L15 = 3 pts with poss return of 450.47

Total stakes = 7 pts today.  (spoilt for choice with today's racing)

I hope that @Bang onposts up today, I am very interested in seeing him show me how betting should be done throughout March.  I am not being saucy btw just sincerely interested in his staking and selection method using his 50 point bank

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Just one winner today but with 3 x the odds on Betfred and my win bet I had 7.41 returned.  I should have put Santoss Blue ion the L15; well done to @richard-westwood.  A tiny profit of 0.41 means a MTD of +3.01 and a YTD of -92.26

 

Edited by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE
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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

Posted
Posted
On 3/3/2023 at 2:33 PM, richard-westwood said:

150 Kelso 

Teddy blue   8.1  7/1 

Colonel mustard   7.9 7/1

Mctigue    7.5 

Collingham   7.5 

Classy race...hard to know how good mctigue is but top 2 look value to take him on ....5pt ew top 2 

 

22 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

3.00 Kelso 

Santos blue  8.2 7/2 

Raffertus return   8.0 8/1 

Nells son   7.7 

Well educated   7.5 

Very competitive race with questions ....can Santos blue improve ?....Will nells son get the dist ?.....Tricky......I'll try 10pt win Santos...5pt ew rafferty 

2pt win doubles top 2 in both above races  

2nd and 1st ....nearly a double ....and ew 4th raffertys .....overall 70pt return ...outlay 48v....22pt profit .....I'll take that ?

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