Racing Chat - Friday November 11th

[The Brigadier]

Cheltenham 1.45

Nine go to post for this two mile class 2 handicap chase. Top weight The Glancing Queen trained by Alan King appears to be the one they all have to beat but is up 5lb for her win here in April and has been off since. It’s also a bit concerning that her trainer said in this weeks Weekender that she had a bit of a hold up two to three weeks ago and has missed some work. Joe Tizzard has made a good start since taking over (in name anyway) from his father Colin and saddles Amarillo Sky who won two of his seven starts last season. Laura Morgan’s Hasankey was just behind Amarillo Sky at the Festival last season and shouldn’t really be three times the price. Another wrong price to my eyes here is Iain Jardine’s Gold Des Bois who beat Malystic comfortably last time at Kelso and despite being 3lb worse off with the latter can be backed at three times the price. I was tempted in putting him up as he looks overpriced but it’s all about finding winners and I think that may well come in the shape of Sam Thomas’s Grey Diamond. Thomas has been in scintillating form recently winning big handicaps on TV the last two Saturday’s and unleashes another of his stars here. Last seen at Wincanton in January when having every chance when sprawling on landing at the last and was left to come home in his own time. Off of the same mark and with the stable in such a rich vein of form he’s the selection to give owner Dai Walters a tonic who’s currently in intensive care following a helicopter accident last week.

 

GREY DIAMOND 2 points win @ 4/1 William Hill

 

Cheltenham 2.20

An interesting class 3 eight runner novices’ limited handicap chase where my fancy is the only runner here that has yet to jump fences in public! Chris Gordon is having an excellent Autumn winning with 5 of his last 19 runners and saddles his six year old Unanswered Prayers who if he can jump has a big chance. He’s been runner up in two Irish point to points a couple of years ago and is a decent hurdler with his latest 5th (beaten 4 1/4L) on his re-appearance at Chepstow looking red hot form. The winner that day Knappers Hill has won in listed company since, the runner up Lord Baddesley, 6th Masters Legacy and 7th Proschema have all also won since. The Irish do well at this meeting and their sole representative here is John C McConnell’s Hereditary Rule who’s chasing a hat trick. He looks the biggest danger to the selection.

 

UNANSWERED PRAYERS 2 points win @ 4/1 bet365

GREY DIAMOND & UNANSWERED PRAYERS 1 point each way double 4/1 & 4/1 bet365

 

Cheltenham 2.55

Nine veteran chasers assemble for this 2m 4F class 2 handicap chase and with six of the field making their seasonal debuts it’s a tough contest to try and unravel. Ballyandy is a grand old sort trained locally by Nigel Twiston-Davies who heads the betting currently and should be competitive along with Joe Tizzard’s top weight Elegant Escape who hasn’t been seen since winning a similar contest at Ascot last March. Ireland is represented by Peter McCreery’s My Manekineko who’s joined him from Arthur Moore’s stable. In a tight contest Richard Hobson’s ten year old Saint Xavier wouldn’t be out of it as well although he does appear to be best in very testing ground. David Dennis’s Broken Quest should be fitter than most having run only 35 days ago and can run well under the under rated and under used jockey Stan Sheppard. A hard race to get a handle on but I’ll take my chance to small stakes each way with top weight Elegant Escape who can race off of 143 today having been rated as high as 163 in his pomp which included a Welsh National win and a 26L 6th in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Brendan Powell takes the reigns today.

 

ELEGANT ESCAPE 1 point each way @ 10/1 Betfred 1/5th 123

 

Cheltenham 3.30

The form horse in this 2m 5F grade 2 Ballymore novices’ hurdle is the Willie Mullins trained Hubrisko who followed up an emphatic Galway hurdle victory by finishing third in grade 3 company at Tipperary. The Ricci’s five year old sets the standard and should be thereabouts. Fellow Irish challenger Music Drive trained by Gordon Elliott was third at the last meeting and is another with claims. A very interesting runner is Nigel Twiston-Davies’s hurdling debutant Weveallbeencaught, a winner of an Irish point to point and a Newbury bumper (from one of today’s rivals in Collectors Item). He could be anything and as long as his lack of hurdling experience doesn’t tell against him he could run well.

With the Paul Nicholls stable in such excellent form though I’ll take them all on with his representative in Hermes Allen. An impressive Irish point to point winner at Kirkistown a year ago he was subsequently sold to Nicholls for £350,000. He went off at 8/13 when winning in a canter at Stratford in October and this represents a big step up in class. He’s hard to assess but is my pick with Nicholls’ number one jockey Harry Cobden taking the ride for the very much in form stable.

 

HERMES ALLEN 1 point win @ 7/2 BetVictor

 

[calva decoy]

It'll be the record button for me when I get home from work but have had a dabble .

110- HECTOR JAVILEX 10/1 Sky ( 6 places ) 5 year olds have won 5 of the last 6 renewals of this race , this offers double figure value whereas the Elliott horse looks worth favourite . 

4th 7/1 ?

145- THE GLANCING QUEEN 11/4 Sky ( cash back if 2nd or 3rd ) decent type & who'll like the faster surface . ?

220- PULL AGAIN GREEN 7/2 ? bet365 , hmmm , not written down why I've backed this , NAP ?

255- ELEGANT ESCAPE 8/1 sky ( 4 places ) I look out for 10 year olds in these veteran races as they have good win % compared to older & this previous Welsh National Winner & who was narrowly beaten by Frodon in Group 2 Cotswold Chase couple of years back will do for me . ?

330- HERMES ALLEN 10/3 bet365 , always hard trying to decipher UK & Irish novice form against each other but I got this down to Nicholls v Mullins .

1st 9/4 

400- TORONTO 50/1 sky ( 6 places ) B.Barr doesn't have many runners , had a winner at Hereford I think it was this week , this one has won 2 from last 5 runs & the last 3 winners of this race have all returned at 33/1 , bit of a small stakes long shot . ?

 

Edited November 11, 2022 by calva decoy

[kensland]

Taunton.

Single.

2.25. Midnight Midge.   3/1..1st.

Market Rason

Double.

2.05. Seinestional..... 9/2..unpl

3.15. Little River Boy.     9/2..unpl

singles & double

Good luck all. .my apologies for posting on wrong thread.

Edited November 11, 2022 by kensland

[Villa Chris]

That first race at Cheltenham will be a tough one to nail with 19 runners 

[yossa6133]

"The bigger the field, the bigger the certainty". 

[azzybear]

lucky lover boy 12.25  hidalgo de lisle 1.05 Lorens 1.30 rocked up 2.05  get with it 2.15 precious elanor 3.15 

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, yossa6133 said:

"The bigger the field, the bigger the certainty". 

Never understood the logic of that !

[Villa Chris]

3 hours ago, yossa6133 said:

"The bigger the field, the bigger the certainty". 

Mick Fitzgerald once said that. Big field , strong  favourite = certainty 

[Bang on]

1 hour ago, Villa Chris said:

Mick Fitzgerald once said that. Big field , strong  favourite = certainty 

It must be true then. ?

[Tedthewolf]

2 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Mick Fitzgerald once said that. Big field , strong  favourite = certainty 

Was he drunk? I don't get that saying either

[Villa Chris]

1 hour ago, Tedthewolf said:

Was he drunk? I don't get that saying either

Well he is Irish , so probably ?

[kensland]

Double.

1.45. Chlt. The Glancing Queen.  4/1.. unpl 

1.55. South. Tying the Knot ...3/1.. unpl 

singles & double.

Good luck all.

 

 

 

 

Edited November 11, 2022 by kensland

[kensland]

Newcastle.

Single.

4.25. Ben Dikduk.    5/1...unpl. No

Good luck all 

Edited November 11, 2022 by kensland

[MCLARKE]

5yo selection

Southwell

1.20

Marta Des Mottes

5/2

[Villa Chris]

Cheltenham 1.45 

Malystic 9.45 11/1

Captain Tom Cat 9.2 9/1

Grey Diamond 9.15 3/1

Gold Des Bois 9.15 14/1

Monsieur Lecoq 9 14/1

5 points win top rated

 

Veterans chase 2.55

I think the top 3 in the betting have very strong claims, but I think Kauto Riko may still have a bit of class about him and goes well fresh . As with Malystic , Brian Hughes also rides Kauto , so I’ve got myself a Brian Hughes double. Come on the champ .

5 points win Kauto Riko 4/1

Edited November 11, 2022 by Villa Chris

[Tedthewolf]

I fancy CAPTAIN TOM CAT will go well in the 1.45 chel got some 12's e/w  i don't mind the fact that he is dropped to 2miles  can see him lead and be very hard to catch. The veterans race  2.55  looks wide open,  i've had a small bet on rank outsider ANOTHER EMOTION 40/1 bog 3 places & 33/1  4places not bog (split stake).

[black rabbit]

Phoenix Aquilus      4 00 Che/      20/1    { £25 ew }  1/20th of a pt

 

 

 

 

 

P/L   +  159.80 pts

Edited November 11, 2022 by black rabbit

[The Equaliser]

Lay Bet

1.35 Nc Queen Of Ipanema 1.19 at 1.83 = poss 1.17 v 0.99 liability.  The horse is in marvellous form, however, she has to shoulder 12lbs extra today.  She has won a 12 furlong race but that was a class 6 off an OR of 52. she is now rated 75.  Hats off to her if she can do it but looks worth opposing

Contrast this with other odds on shots today, Flight Plan Karl Burke 2yo could improve; Pocket The Packet approved by @Valiant Thorand Napped by @Alastair and Donaire @Tumbleweed King acca and @MCLARKE nap.  Hopefully I've chosen the most vulnerable runner

RESULTS UPDATE

Well done to Queen Of Ipanema with all that extra weight.  -0.99 = MTD -1.51.  Tomorrow is another day

I do hope that all the other odds on shots win for PL members today

Edited November 11, 2022 by The Equaliser
RESULT UPDATE

[azzybear]

enki flacke 1.10 

[azzybear]

fugatif 1.45

[azzybear]

myburg 12.45

[MCLARKE]

BET365 4/1 TV offer selections

CHEL	1.45	The Glancing Queen	4/1
CHEL	2.20	Hereditary Rule	9/2
CHEL	2.55	Kauto Riko	5/1

[MCLARKE]

Odds on selection

Southwell

2.30

Donaire

4/11

[kroni]

Cheltenham

145 - Malystic @ 17/2 e-w Bet365

220 - Hereditary Rule e-w @ SP / Honneur DAjonc e-w @ SP Both skybet 4 places

255 - My Manekineko @ 28/1 e-w Skybet 4 places

330 - Hubrisko @ 15/8 Bet365  /  Quid Pro Quo @ 11/1 e-w Bet365 3 places

400 - Galahad Threepwood @ 10/1 e-w Bet365  /  Mothill @ 11/1 e-w Bet365

 

[The Equaliser]

Revising the type of races to use for my multiple bets so nothing so far today

2.10 Nc My Brother Mike 0.50 ew at 14/1 @PercyP

2.20 Chelt Heriditary Rue 1 pt win at 6.4 plenty of experts support.  I can't back either of the top 2 at their prices

2.55 Chelt Elegant Escape 0.50 ew at 17/2 @The Brigadier@calva decoyand @silver fox

4.00 Chelt Mothill 0.33 ew at 11/1 @The Brigadier, Phoenix Aquilius 0.34 ew at 16/1 @black rabbitand @trainmad091and Diamond In The Mud 0.33 ew at 50/1 @sirspread

World Without Love is a strong favourite in the 3.20 at Nc with plenty of PL members' support.  Good luck to anyone backing at around even money on a horse in a handicap.  Not for me

5 points staked for an afternoon of fun

------------------------------------------------------------

6.30 Wolv 1 pt win on Center Court at 6.2 @TVY.  Looks like @Craggwoodtaking no chances by going each way with Danger Alert ?

7.30 Wolv @richard-westwood's selections 1 x 0.5 rev forecast and 0.50 wins at 9/2 and 14/1

8 pts staked in total

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RESULTS UPDATE

No winners but 2 placed bet returns meant a loss of 5.04 pts.  Makes MTD -36.07 and YTD -247.81

I hope I get time for some bets later.  Busy day ahead

Edited November 12, 2022 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE

[richard-westwood]

730 wolv 

Ciotog    8.2  9/2 

Cisco disco  7.9 12/1 

George Marland  7.7 

I'll try 5pt wins top 2 

[The Brigadier]

On 11/10/2022 at 8:26 AM, The Brigadier said:

Cheltenham 1.45

Nine go to post for this two mile class 2 handicap chase. Top weight The Glancing Queen trained by Alan King appears to be the one they all have to beat but is up 5lb for her win here in April and has been off since. It’s also a bit concerning that her trainer said in this weeks Weekender that she had a bit of a hold up two to three weeks ago and has missed some work. Joe Tizzard has made a good start since taking over (in name anyway) from his father Colin and saddles Amarillo Sky who won two of his seven starts last season. Laura Morgan’s Hasankey was just behind Amarillo Sky at the Festival last season and shouldn’t really be three times the price. Another wrong price to my eyes here is Iain Jardine’s Gold Des Bois who beat Malystic comfortably last time at Kelso and despite being 3lb worse off with the latter can be backed at three times the price. I was tempted in putting him up as he looks overpriced but it’s all about finding winners and I think that may well come in the shape of Sam Thomas’s Grey Diamond. Thomas has been in scintillating form recently winning big handicaps on TV the last two Saturday’s and unleashes another of his stars here. Last seen at Wincanton in January when having every chance when sprawling on landing at the last and was left to come home in his own time. Off of the same mark and with the stable in such a rich vein of form he’s the selection to give owner Dai Walters a tonic who’s currently in intensive care following a helicopter accident last week.

 

GREY DIAMOND 2 points win @ 4/1 William Hill

 

Cheltenham 2.20

An interesting class 3 eight runner novices’ limited handicap chase where my fancy is the only runner here that has yet to jump fences in public! Chris Gordon is having an excellent Autumn winning with 5 of his last 19 runners and saddles his six year old Unanswered Prayers who if he can jump has a big chance. He’s been runner up in two Irish point to points a couple of years ago and is a decent hurdler with his latest 5th (beaten 4 1/4L) on his re-appearance at Chepstow looking red hot form. The winner that day Knappers Hill has won in listed company since, the runner up Lord Baddesley, 6th Masters Legacy and 7th Proschema have all also won since. The Irish do well at this meeting and their sole representative here is John C McConnell’s Hereditary Rule who’s chasing a hat trick. He looks the biggest danger to the selection.

 

UNANSWERED PRAYERS 2 points win @ 4/1 bet365

GREY DIAMOND & UNANSWERED PRAYERS 1 point each way double 4/1 & 4/1 bet365

 

Cheltenham 2.55

Nine veteran chasers assemble for this 2m 4F class 2 handicap chase and with six of the field making their seasonal debuts it’s a tough contest to try and unravel. Ballyandy is a grand old sort trained locally by Nigel Twiston-Davies who heads the betting currently and should be competitive along with Joe Tizzard’s top weight Elegant Escape who hasn’t been seen since winning a similar contest at Ascot last March. Ireland is represented by Peter McCreery’s My Manekineko who’s joined him from Arthur Moore’s stable. In a tight contest Richard Hobson’s ten year old Saint Xavier wouldn’t be out of it as well although he does appear to be best in very testing ground. David Dennis’s Broken Quest should be fitter than most having run only 35 days ago and can run well under the under rated and under used jockey Stan Sheppard. A hard race to get a handle on but I’ll take my chance to small stakes each way with top weight Elegant Escape who can race off of 143 today having been rated as high as 163 in his pomp which included a Welsh National win and a 26L 6th in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Brendan Powell takes the reigns today.

 

ELEGANT ESCAPE 1 point each way @ 10/1 Betfred 1/5th 123

 

Cheltenham 3.30

The form horse in this 2m 5F grade 2 Ballymore novices’ hurdle is the Willie Mullins trained Hubrisko who followed up an emphatic Galway hurdle victory by finishing third in grade 3 company at Tipperary. The Ricci’s five year old sets the standard and should be thereabouts. Fellow Irish challenger Music Drive trained by Gordon Elliott was third at the last meeting and is another with claims. A very interesting runner is Nigel Twiston-Davies’s hurdling debutant Weveallbeencaught, a winner of an Irish point to point and a Newbury bumper (from one of today’s rivals in Collectors Item). He could be anything and as long as his lack of hurdling experience doesn’t tell against him he could run well.

With the Paul Nicholls stable in such excellent form though I’ll take them all on with his representative in Hermes Allen. An impressive Irish point to point winner at Kirkistown a year ago he was subsequently sold to Nicholls for £350,000. He went off at 8/13 when winning in a canter at Stratford in October and this represents a big step up in class. He’s hard to assess but is my pick with Nicholls’ number one jockey Harry Cobden taking the ride for the very much in form stable.

 

HERMES ALLEN 1 point win @ 7/2 BetVictor

 

A nice profit of 8.24 points on the day with two winners from four selections at 7/2 and 4/1. Saturdays selections are already up and I'm currently working on Sunday's which I'll stick up later today. 

[Villa Chris]

0/2 today . There’s 5/6 races I’ll be looking at tomorrow . 
 

P/L jump season start date 8th October 2022 -15.46

[Zilzalian]

Frustrating! second day on the trot my nap (2nd) has been done by a horse that had no reason to win other than trainers taking the p*ss. but thats the gg's for you, and low grade racing.

[fd1972uk]

Decent enough return, although mainly from a free bet double and amarillo sky among a quite a few loses.