Racing Chat - Wednesday June 15th

[The Brigadier]

Ascot 2.30

Twenty one two year off fillies assemble for the group 2 Queen Mary. We have the usual Royal Ascot conundrum of a lightly raced well touted Wesley Ward filly in Love Reigns who blitzed her field on her debut at Keeneland winning by 9 3/4L. She’s obviously smart but at the likely price I’ll take her on here as she does take a fair chunk out of the market. I’ve been waiting for Karl Burke’s Dramatised to re-appear as she impressed me when bolting up at Newmarket on her debut back in April. She pulled four lengths clear that day from Malrescia who’s won twice since. She’s the bet here for me from stall 17 which hopefully will be an advantage although as always at Royal Ascot we don’t really know where the best place to be is until we get into the meeting. The best outsider for me is the Simon and Ed Crisford trained All The Time owned by the Royal Ascot Club so one would think that this has been the target for a while. She came home an easy 5L winner at Nottingham on her debut and although that form has yet to be tested looked smart that day and with the extra places available is worth a small each way saver.

 

DRAMATISED 2 points each way 9/2 BetVictor 1/5th 1234

ALL THE TIME 1/2 point each way 18/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345

 

Ascot 3.05

The group 2 Queens Vase is run over 14F and has attracted a dozen three year olds this year whom are all trying this trip for the first time. Charlie Appleby saddles a brace of runners in Hafit, ridden by James Doyle’s and Nahaani ridden by William Buick who presumably has had the pick of the pair and to my eyes is the most likely winner today. The third string of Appleby’s in the Epsom Derby things didn’t go to plan for him as he was affected by the fireworks going off just before the start of the classic and missed the break. He eventually ran on to finish 7th with his rider that day Adam Kirby stating afterwards he felt he could have finished fourth if things had fallen right for him. As long as this race doesn’t come too soon for him he looks sure to be thereabouts. Roger Varian saddles a very interesting runner in Eldar Eldarov who’s unbeaten in two starts and steps up half a mile today. He took the scalp of a smart sort of William Haggas’s last time at Newcastle and looks a threat to the selection.

 

NAHAANI 2 points win 9/2 William Hill

 

Ascot 3.40

A disappointing turnout of only five for the group one Prince Of Wale’s Stakes with the Japanese challenger Shahryar a fascinating contender. Last seen winning the Sheema Classic at Meydan in March from Yibir proving that he can win after travelling and has been working well at Roger Varian’s stables in Newmarket recently. He’ll have to be on his A game mind to beat the Sir Michael Stoute trained favourite Bay Bridge who was not fully tuned up when an impressive winner at Sandown in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes on his re-appearance last month. That was a terrific effort and he’ll be very hard to beat under Ryan Moore who knows him so well. Lord North won this two years ago but was behind Joseph O’Brien’s globe trotting State Of Rest at The Curragh last time in the Tattersalls Gold Cup and might struggle to turn the form around whilst French raider Grand Glory, although unbeaten this season will need to step up again. An intriguing race but I find it hard to oppose Bay Bridge who looked the real deal at Sandown.

 

BAY BRIDGE 3 points win 11/8 William Hill

 

Ascot 4.20

The Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes is up next with eight four year old fillies taking centre stage. The highest rated amongst them is German raider Novemba but like the French challenger Sibilant Spirit is overlooked as the pair prefer softer ground. Saffron Beach hasn’t been seen since running a decent 4th in the Dubai Turf in March at Meydan and has to shoulder a 5lb penalty here for her Group one victory at Newmarket last Autumn. Mother Earth is a consistent filly but I didn’t like her latest effort when easy to back in the Lockinge and wears cheek pieces for the first time today. At the prices I can let her go. A matter of elimination more than anything ends up with the William Haggas filly Bashkirova who arrives in top form having won at Epsom and as this is only her 7th career start may actually still be improving. I’ll take her to win this.

 

BASHKIROVA 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365

 

Ascot 5.00

Next up is the maximum 30 runner Royal Hunt Cup, a handicap run over the straight mile. It’s hard to know where the best place to be drawn is so I’m looking for the most likely winner and let’s hope it’s drawn well. Sir Michael Stoute’s Astro King bumped into a handicap snip in Real World last year and should go well although is 4lb higher now so can hardly be called well in. Charlie Hills’ Dark Shift is 2lb well in here and with James McDonald riding is another with a live chance. The pair I like are both trained by Newmarket handler Roger Varian and I’ll take them against the field. Legend Of Dubai looked useful when winning on his re-appearance at Newmarket with the third that day winning twice since. The winner himself has been shunted up 11lb for the victory but could still be ahead of his mark with his breeding suggesting he could be top class (by Dubawi out of the smart Speedy Boarding). The other Varian runner is Greatgadian who’s won two 10F all weather Chelmsford handicaps since returning this season having been gelded. The horse he beat last time has won well since and Ray Dawson who was on board then keeps the ride. The pair are drawn together and I’ll back both to small stakes each way with the extra places on offer.

 

GREATGADIAN 1 point each way 20/1 BetVictor 1/5th 123456

LEGEND OF DUBAI 1 point each way 9/1 Betfred 1/5th 123456

 

Ascot 5.35

Another big field, this time 24 go to post for the listed Windsor Castle Stakes run over 5F for two year olds. Warm favourite is the Aidan O’Brien trained Little Big Bear, an easy maiden winner at Naas last month on softish ground. He’s yet to encounter ground as fast as this and at the prices I’m happy enough to looks elsewhere for some each way value. Andrew Balding won this a couple of years ago with Tactical for The Queen and appears to have another big chance with his Ida Salman Al Khalifa owned Chateau. He came late and fast to to win at Beverley last time having improved plenty for his debut run under William Buick and with Buick retaining the ride can reward an each way bet. The Gosden runner Far Shot and Varian runner Bolt Action bath come here with a recent victory under their belts and they too can be competitive.

 

CHATEAU 1 point each way 10/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

 

Ascot 6.10

Day two concludes with the twenty runner Kensington Palace Handicap run over a mile but this time, unlike the Hunt Cup on the round course. Another competitive looking handicap with Joseph O’Brien’s improver Haziya heading the market. He has obvious claims but I’m taking a couple against the field from big Newmarket stables. Saeed Bin Suroor saddles three here and the one that could be well handicapped is surely White Moonlight ridden today by Daniel Tudhope. A dual winner back in the autumn of 2019 she came back from that 971 day absence when needing the run to finish a credible third at Chelmsford a fortnight ago to prepare her for this contest. She took a fierce hold that day and hopefully with the freshness out of her and off of what may well be a workable mark of 92 can go close. The only negative for her may well be the wide draw but I'm hoping her class can tell. 

 

WHITE MOONLIGHT 2 points each way 7/1 Coral 1/5th 12345

 

 

 

[richard-westwood]

Royal hunt cup ...this is one of those impossible 30 runner races but has the chance to win big with tricasts paying hundreds for even 10p a line so gotta have a go !!

Cruyff turn  8.9 22/1 8 places 

Rebel territory  8.7 18/1 7 places 

Totally charming 8.4  12/1 7places 

Magical morning 7.9 14/1 

5pt ew top 3 ...12x 0.5 forecasts top 4 ....24x10p tricasts top 4 

[The Equaliser]

Am I missing a day?  Can't seem to find anything for Tuesday ?

[richard-westwood]

2 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Am I missing a day?  Can't seem to find anything for Tuesday ?

It's in Royal ascot tues ?

[The Equaliser]

Just now, richard-westwood said:

It's in Royal ascot tues ?

I wish members would stick to the standard format for "Racing Chat" thread.  Tinkering with this is can't help new or existing members

[richard-westwood]

42 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I wish members would stick to the standard format for "Racing Chat" thread.  Tinkering with this is can't help new or existing members

It was posted few,days before for chat thoughts etc and was then just used rather than create another thread .... saves space 

[richard-westwood]

610 ascot 

White moonlight  8.5 13/2 

Rising star   8.2  40/1 

Modabra   8.0  8/1 

Don't tell clare  8.0  28/1 

4pt wins white moonlight and modabra..  2pt wins rising and don't....12x 0.5pt forecasts ...24x 10p tricasts 

[The Equaliser]

36 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

It was posted few,days before for chat thoughts etc and was then just used rather than create another thread .... saves space 

You are always forgiven.  As you created the post I believe that it can be edited.  Probably not worth doing now as there are so many posts but something to bear in mind  

[calva decoy]

4 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I wish members would stick to the standard format for "Racing Chat" thread.  Tinkering with this is can't help new or existing members

You not looked at Thursday's card yet ? ( not thread ) 

Wednesday , just 2 " free bets " 

340- SHAHRYAR 10/3 sky bet 

Beat Yibir at Meydan last time out in 12f Group 1 , hasn't won over 10f before but the Japanese on away days have been in cracking form over last 12-18 months .

535- SEISMIC SPIRIT 11/1 eway ( 6 places sky bet ) 

Only 2nd on race debut but Wesley Ward's sprinters have excelled plenty of times previously , Irad Ortiz Jr will be more familiar about the course after his Tuesday rides .

[ipswich45]

i have a owners group runner tomorrow at Uttoxeter in the 1520    Rock Legend one of 2 owners group horses in the race with Farouk De Cheneau also lining up in the race,   Harry Skelton rides Rocky who won at short odds at Newcastle 3 starts ago last 2 starts been on undulating courses Cheltenham (5th behind Koi Dodville) and 2nd latest at Sedgefield beaten just over a length and today we go up from 2m to 2m 4f  would be nice to think we have a chance of going close

warm up maybe for my runner saturday? heres hoping 

[kensland]

Royal Ascot. 

Single. 

6.10. State Occasion.        11/1.    ew.... 4th 

Ripon. 

6.00. Boom Boom Pow.           5/2... 2nd 

7.10. Sweet Fantasy.                 3/1... 2nd 

singles & double 

Good luck all. 

Edited June 15, 2022 by kensland

[Tedthewolf]

Royal Hunt Cup

I really fancied the winner of this last year  but no strong fancy this year i am afraid.

Looks really hard with nothing really standing out although some may  say Astro Kings second last year  looks decent and stands out but 2 small e/w bets for me-

ETONIAN 40/1 7p bog- Quirky but talented  still young plenty of time ahead ain't seen the best of this horse yet and  if the creases can be ironed out could turn out to be pretty decent.

FANTASTIC FOX 22/1 6p bog Ran a nice race at Epsom if can improve on that run would have some sort of chance in a very open race can see a big price winner taking this   looks a pin sticker!

 

[Darran]

13 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I wish members would stick to the standard format for "Racing Chat" thread.  Tinkering with this is can't help new or existing members

I'm wondering if in future we maybe have separate threads for the big Festivals so chat can be had in advance should people wish and then have day of race runs for the other meetings. Think it would be good to get the chat going earlier as well. 

[Zilzalian]

Speed figures for 230 Ascot

1. Katey Kontent             130          10/1

2. Carmela                       128           28/1

3. Lady Tilbury                125           16/1

4? Love Reigns                125?          3/1

? love reigns is hard for me to rate due to standard times in the USA and is a best guess calculated by its 1 run which was quick, quicker than UK? i am not sure.

one error here maybe Wesley Ward not choosing a "UK" based Jockey like Dettori who he has used for most of his runners here previously. Ortiz got it all wrong yesterday and that may be a theme throughout the week, It is a very good argument not to back a horse at 3/1 in a hugely competetive big field.

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, Darran said:

I'm wondering if in future we maybe have separate threads for the big Festivals so chat can be had in advance should people wish and then have day of race runs for the other meetings. Think it would be good to get the chat going earlier as well. 

I think that your idea might be best for specific big festival races rather than the whole meeting.  For example someone could start off a thread for next year's Epsom Derby and it could run right through to the 2023 day of the race.

I am not a techie so I like to see selections in one place on the day of the race.  Indeed, I sometimes nearly miss your excellent "hunter chase" write-ups because I forget to check your correctly described post as it is not where I normally look

[calva decoy]

10 hours ago, ipswich45 said:

i have a owners group runner tomorrow at Uttoxeter in the 1520    Rock Legend one of 2 owners group horses in the race with Farouk De Cheneau also lining up in the race,   Harry Skelton rides Rocky who won at short odds at Newcastle 3 starts ago last 2 starts been on undulating courses Cheltenham (5th behind Koi Dodville) and 2nd latest at Sedgefield beaten just over a length and today we go up from 2m to 2m 4f  would be nice to think we have a chance of going close

warm up maybe for my runner saturday? heres hoping 

Good luck , not even a mention of FF in the weekly syndicate reports last night & OG usually shout stuff from the roof in order to attract new members so with John's cold snap ( 34 without a winner ) & lack of hype I'm 50/50 he'll get an entry for Saturday , hope I'm wrong ?

[Sparky Bear]

11 hours ago, ipswich45 said:

i have a owners group runner tomorrow at Uttoxeter in the 1520    Rock Legend one of 2 owners group horses in the race with Farouk De Cheneau also lining up in the race,   Harry Skelton rides Rocky who won at short odds at Newcastle 3 starts ago last 2 starts been on undulating courses Cheltenham (5th behind Koi Dodville) and 2nd latest at Sedgefield beaten just over a length and today we go up from 2m to 2m 4f  would be nice to think we have a chance of going close

warm up maybe for my runner saturday? heres hoping 

Me too. Mine is Farouk de Cheneau. Best of luck to both him and Rock Legend ?

[ipswich45]

@Sparky Bearno disrespect to your horse but little surprised Farouk is wearing the black cap (first choice) and Rocky in the white cap given recent performances for Rocky being consistent and Farouk only just returning from a long injury absence, i did apply for a badge but was unsuccessful 

@calva decoylooks like on Racing Post website FF is number 23 in the OR rundown so with max field of 28 im more than 50/50 and James seemed its still plan A on the weekly last night and appears conditions to suit

meanwhile couple of picks elsewhere other than Ascot:

Hamilton:
1455 - 4 Reward Smile      11/4 
1640 - 7 May Punch          10/3

Nottingham:
1710 - 7 Intercessor           5/1 William Hill
1745 - 5 Desert Team         2/1

Ripon:
1800 - 9 Twilight Tryst         7/2 William Hill

Uttoxeter:
1325 - 5 Iddergem               10/3
1520 - 6 Rock Legend          4/1
1600 - 4 Premier D'troice      5/1

Wexford:
1720 - 12 Steak And Onions     4/1
 

[Zilzalian]

535 speed figures

1 kaasib                129

2 knebworth         127

3 mehma              126

4 rocket rodney    126

rocking ends 127 (aw) so -2

[Budgie 65]

500 speed rating

Magical morning 102.5

Cruyff turn 100.1

Totally charming 99.7

Great gadian 99.7

Isla Kai 99.7

Edited June 15, 2022 by Budgie 65

[black rabbit]

Aratus   5 00 as    1/5 pt ew   33/1  

rebel territoory   1/5 pt ew   25/1

sibela spain   1/4 pt win    15/2 

 

 

 

 

 

[MCLARKE]

10 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

one error here maybe Wesley Ward not choosing a "UK" based Jockey like Dettori who he has used for most of his runners here previously. Ortiz got it all wrong yesterday and that may be a theme throughout the week, It is a very good argument not to back a horse at 3/1 in a hugely competetive big field.

The winner was 9/4

[Bang on]

Lots of interest today, and for various reasons.

4.00 Uttox - Game Line - 9/2 - 3pts win - Trainer Peter Bowen is in excelent form ( 3 wins, 3 placed from 8 runners). It was a beaten favourite LTO but is 3lb below its winning mark and can make amends today.

4.10 Ham - Yeeeaah - 15/2 - 1pt EW - Yet to win (twice placed) in 7 attempts, but was only beaten a length LTO and is on my 'to follow' list. Each way because it hasn't won yet.

8.40 Ripon - Burgoo Beauty - 10/3 - 3pts win - Trainer Harry Eustace sends just one runner (his first) to Ripon. Should have learnt plenty from its first race at Chester (very tricky track for an unraced runner), and also steps back in distance. Jockey with a good course record has been booked and hopefully it can improve for a second race and win.

8pts staked

[Darran]

11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I think that your idea might be best for specific big festival races rather than the whole meeting.  For example someone could start off a thread for next year's Epsom Derby and it could run right through to the 2023 day of the race.

I am not a techie so I like to see selections in one place on the day of the race.  Indeed, I sometimes nearly miss your excellent "hunter chase" write-ups because I forget to check your correctly described post as it is not where I normally look

Maybe we have ante post threads for Cheltenham and Ascot and then individual ones for big races like the classics and the grand national where there is little ante post betting apart from the big race. Then come actual race day all tips are in the normal thread like today.

[Nigwilliam]

Just a couple of small Ew picks in the 610 ASC.  bet365  6 places.

Angel Power. 16/1

Neptune Rock. 33/1

[fd1972uk]

Asc dbl love reigns and bay bridge

Dbl utt 1445 mahkanhon power and little big bear at asc 1735

Rip 1940 azure blue

Ascots

1505 nahanni + ew on al qareem and hafit

1620 bashikrova

1700 legend of dubai

1810 white moonlight

 

Good luck all. 

[The Equaliser]

Haven't been able to work through all the races and have only looked at Royal Ascot

2.30 Katy Content 1 pt win at 14 = poss profit of 12.74 plus 0.5 pts on Love Reigns at 3/1

5.35 Asc Fair shot 1 pt 3TBP 7.2 for a 6.08 profit

Will come back if I lose on the first bet

2.5 pts staked so far today

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Haha, chose the wrong insurance bet.  Well done to @TheBrigadierwho was spot on. 

3.05 Asc. 1.5 pts win on Anchorage at 9.8 = poss profit of 12.94 The top two in the market seem to be very good.  I am just hoping that the Galileo horse will see the trip out best

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3.40 Asc Sharyar 3.5 pts win at 5.2 for 14.41 profit

Total stakes = 7.5

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Well Sharyar didn't stay well up the Ascot Hill.  Well done to J P O'Brien's State Of Rest

I'll skip the 4.20 as I fancy Saffron Beach and its rather short

I'll have 2 pts win on Totally Charming in the 5.00 Cavalry charge in the 5pm at 10.0 with a possible profit of 17.64.  It is 3rd top-tated by @richard-westwoodso it looks good for a punt with Dettori aboard 

Last bet of the day

6.10 Asc 3 pts win on white Moonlight poss profit 19.5

Edited June 15, 2022 by The Equaliser

[MCLARKE]

Ascot day 2 trends

2.30

Drawn > 19, 4 from 24, AE 2.32

This leaves MANHATTAN JUNGLE and LOST ANGEL

First time out, 3 from 18, AE 1.18

This leaves MANHATTAN JUNGLE at 40/1, 6 places

3.05

Last ran more than 40 days ago, 5 from 17, AE 3.07

This leaves TYPEWRITER and HAFIT

Odds rank 7 - 10, 2 from 31, AE = 1.77

This leaves TYPEWRITER at 25/1, 4 places 

3.40

Bred in Ireland, 6 from 29, AE 1.81, this reduces the field to 2

Older than 5, 0 from 8

This leaves STATE OF REST at 15/2

4.20

Last ran less than 39 days ago, 2 from 50, this reduces the field to 2

Not finished in 1st 3, 1 from 45

This leaves SAFFRON BEACH at 3/1

5.00

Top 10 in the weights, 1 from 86, this reduces the field to 19

Odds 25/1 to 33/1, 4 from 92, AE 2.22, this reduces the field to 11

Last ran more than 96 days ago, 3 from 44, AE 2.00

This leaves LUNAR SPACE at 125/1, 7 places

5.35

Last ran more than 26 days ago, 1 from 63, this reduces the field to 17

Draw > 19, 4 from 39, AE 2.66

This leaves 2, ROCKING ENDS and WHISTLE AND FLUTE

1st last time, 2 from 74, AE 0.57

This leaves WHISTLE AND FLUTE at 50/1, 5 places

 

 

 

[Zilzalian]

2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

The winner was 9/4

my mistake i should have added in those circumstances and yes i do concede the winner also did have a "foreign" jockey.  Would Dettori have cocked up that start? we will never know but maybe it was less likely he would.

[ipswich45]

The Monkees might have a small interest in a runner tonight in the 1837 at Finger Lakes in the USA

you can get 5/2 currently for Adaydreambeliever     (sorry)