Wimbledon 2022

[Stanimal]

Guys what do you think about Bagnis vs Thiem? 1,75 for Dominic. He played good against misolic ( he is a young prospect and was in a very good form)

For today i have this picks : nishioka, galfi, halep, ram/salisbury, mektic/pavic, struff/demoliner and thiem. 

[Torque]

3 hours ago, Stanimal said:

Guys what do you think about Bagnis vs Thiem? 1,75 for Dominic. He played good against misolic ( he is a young prospect and was in a very good form)

If you forget about his name and just look at how he's done since returning from injury I'm not so sure Thiem is a good bet. He's lost to worse players than Bagnis recently.

[Torque]

I'm closing my outright book on the Women's side with a final bet on Jabeur. She's behind Halep in the betting, but I think she's worth backing again as she's the most likely to make the final and Rybakina could beat Halep if she serves well. I'm also going to add to my position on Nadal on the Men's side as his price has drifted like a barge. That's understandable given his injury concerns, but he's had those concerns since the French Open started and has been able to manage them. It's possible of course that his latest setback with his ribs will be a step too far, but I'm not prepared to count him out and Kyrgios in the next round is winnable provided he has at least some degree of fitness.

 

35pts Jabeur to win WTA Wimbledon @ 2.43 Betfair Exchange

20pts Nadal to win ATP Wimbledon @ 13.25 Betfair Exchange

[DrO]

5 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

With the yesterday's match in mind, Kyrgios to beat Nadal at 1.70 with Unibet looks like a pretty good bet to me. Kyrgios tends to play his best against Nadal, he just wants to beat him incredibly badly, and, while he's likely to fold against Djokovic in the finals, I think that he's reaching his first chance to win a GS title in London this time around. Has the right profile to beat Nadal on grass.

What about his menthal issues? Does he have a "head"for a win,right attitude?

[Stanimal]

1 hour ago, Torque said:

I'm closing my outright book on the Women's side with a final bet on Jabeur. She's behind Halep in the betting, but I think she's worth backing again as she's the most likely to make the final and Rybakina could beat Halep if she serves well. I'm also going to add to my position on Nadal on the Men's side as his price has drifted like a barge. That's understandable given his injury concerns, but he's had those concerns since the French Open started and has been able to manage them. It's possible of course that his latest setback with his ribs will be a step too far, but I'm not prepared to count him out and Kyrgios in the next round is winnable provided he has at least some degree of fitness.

 

35pts Jabeur to win WTA Wimbledon @ 2.43 Betfair Exchange

20pts Nadal to win ATP Wimbledon @ 13.25 Betfair Exchange

I don't know if is true or not, but Fognini would have said this about Nadal. " Guys, stop believing what you read" 

Actually he said that. Found that on his instagram stories ?

Edited July 7, 2022 by Stanimal

[raduvlad1995]

went with halep winning. I barely watch wta but I ve watched simona and rybakina seems like kind of another badosa/anisimova which halep handled easily. I truly hope she ll take it all.

[amity]

Even if Halep wins easily, Rybakina should be winning the 'most aces' bet as she's been well ahead (of Halep) in this market all tournament. It's as short as 1/9 with Paddy Power but 1/4 can be got on Boyles and 2/9 with Skybet and Bet365.

Edited July 7, 2022 by amity

[Torque]

15 hours ago, matrixman said:

Anyone seeing Maria having any chance at all tommorrow?

This has been fun to watch so far. Maria not giving up as expected and it's nice to watch two 'tennis' players playing as in they both have all the shots and aren't just about serving and ball-bashing.

[Torque]

The latest on Nadal seems to be that he has an abdominal tear, but that he wants to play against Kyrgios. He's also quoted as saying that he's used to pain and playing with problems, suggesting he will be able to play. He mentioned yesterday that he'd had to change his serving motion during the match, which explains the drop in speed that was evident. Whether Kyrgios can take advantage of that or whether Nadal can serve more slowly and still win remains to be seen.

[Torque]

17 minutes ago, amity said:

Even if Halep wins easily, Rybakina should be winning the 'most aces' bet as she's been well ahead (of Halep) in this market all tournament. It's as short as 1/9 with Paddy Power but 1/4 can be got on Boyles and 2/9 with Skybet and Bet365.

With this in mind I'm taking a boost on 365, which is Halep to win - I think she will - 10 or more aces - Rybakina could cover this on her own - and at least 22 games - Halep has cruised so far, but has had a habit in recent years of losing the second set after winning the first.

10pts Halep to win, Over 21.5 games and 10+ Aces @ 5.00 365

[Torque]

Just seen some video of Nadal walking off the practice courts and it looks like he's limping, which is obviously not a good sign. Whether it's soreness after such a long match yesterday or a sign that he won't be able to play Kyrgios is impossible to tell - with any luck some rest this afternoon and medical treatment will give him a chance to take to the court tomorrow.

[harry_rag]

22 minutes ago, Torque said:

With this in mind I'm taking a boost on 365, which is Halep to win - I think she will - 10 or more aces - Rybakina could cover this on her own - and at least 22 games - Halep has cruised so far, but has had a habit in recent years of losing the second set after winning the first.

10pts Halep to win, Over 21.5 games and 10+ Aces @ 5.00 365

Where do you find these bets on 365, I've looked a couple of times and have never been able to locate them?

[Torque]

Should come up on the tennis page @harry_rag

[harry_rag]

15 minutes ago, Torque said:

Should come up on the tennis page @harry_rag

I can see it on the website (in to 7/2 now) but not on the app. 

I'm not curious enough to see how little I'd be allowed on to bother signing in on the website! If I won every bet I ever placed with them it wouldn't pay me enough for the extra effort of entering password etc. over using my fingerprint! 

[Torque]

2 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

I can see it on the website (in to 7/2 now) but not on the app. 

I'm not curious enough to see how little I'd be allowed on to bother signing in on the website! If I won every bet I ever placed with them it wouldn't pay me enough for the extra effort of entering password etc. over using my fingerprint! 

I noticed it had been cut. In fairness they sometimes go up as well.

[Torque]

2 hours ago, Torque said:

With this in mind I'm taking a boost on 365, which is Halep to win - I think she will - 10 or more aces - Rybakina could cover this on her own - and at least 22 games - Halep has cruised so far, but has had a habit in recent years of losing the second set after winning the first.

10pts Halep to win, Over 21.5 games and 10+ Aces @ 5.00 365

This never stood a chance in the end. That must have been one of the worst matches of Halep's career on serve. Nine double-faults and no aces compared to Rybakina who served five aces and no double-faults - That's over three games worth of points that Halep gave over to Rybakina and that was too much of a hurdle to overcome. It makes for an interesting final though as the craft of Jabeur will meet the power of Rybakina.

[Torque]

So Nadal withdraws. I knew that was a risk when I backed him again so no regrets.

[Stanimal]

11 hours ago, Torque said:

So Nadal withdraws. I knew that was a risk when I backed him again so no regrets.

If you took him against kyrgios they would give you your money back, right? Sorry for my english, im not native. 

What do you think about nole today? Will be a walk in a park? 

From what i saw from norrie against goffin than we should see 3-0 for Novak

[CzechPunter]

Yes, @Stanimal, all match bets on Kyrgios-Nadal will be void, probably already have been voided, in fact. I think Torque was referring to his outright bets on him.

The withdrawal makes today rather sad, although Norrie will be there for the home fans. Honestly can't see him doing much, if he red-lines, he might get a set, though.

[harry_rag]

Does Djokovic to win and under 31.5 games at 13/10 look a decent bet? 

It leapt out at me a bit (for what that’s worth) and seems standout compared to prices elsewhere. Maybe closer to evens than that?

[Torque]

2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Does Djokovic to win and under 31.5 games at 13/10 look a decent bet? 

It leapt out at me a bit (for what that’s worth) and seems standout compared to prices elsewhere. Maybe closer to evens than that?

I like that one @harry_rag I think Djokovic wins in straight sets which should see that line covered.

[liquidglass]

2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Does Djokovic to win and under 31.5 games at 13/10 look a decent bet? 

It leapt out at me a bit (for what that’s worth) and seems standout compared to prices elsewhere. Maybe closer to evens than that?

From my experience, it just does not seem the right way to go because that is where they want you to go. The bookies have carefully carved out this cul-de-sac which only offers one choice that will be followed thoughtlessy by many. I am not saying that it cannot happen, it is just that knowing that the bookies never really pay everybody, it will just be more disciplined to avoid the game totally or go over in total games with no particular winner picked. If you are brave enough on medium stakes Norrie to steal a set by gifted or hoodini means would seem reasonable.

[harry_rag]

To be fair there are overs and unders options so it’s not entirely a cul de sac scenario. Same bet is 7/5 with PP but stipulates it has to be in 3 sets (which is most likely scenario for the bet to land). I’m on for an interest as feels closer to a coin toss for me.

[harry_rag]

5 hours ago, Torque said:

I like that one @harry_rag I think Djokovic wins in straight sets which should see that line covered.

Well I didn't see the first set so I don't know how fortunate or otherwise Norrie was to win it but it was a surprise to get such a run out of the Djokovic and <31.5 bet after that. 

No grumbles about the loss, probably a better value bet than the simple 3-0 scoreline if you fancied Djokovic to win in straight sets.

5 hours ago, liquidglass said:

If you are brave enough on medium stakes Norrie to steal a set by gifted or hoodini means would seem reasonable.

 Credit where due for the better call on the day and thanks both for the responses.

[Torque]

2 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Well I didn't see the first set so I don't know how fortunate or otherwise Norrie was to win it but it was a surprise to get such a run out of the Djokovic and <31.5 bet after that. 

No grumbles about the loss, probably a better value bet than the simple 3-0 scoreline if you fancied Djokovic to win in straight sets.

 Credit where due for the better call on the day and thanks both for the responses.

Djokovic just didn't turn up for the first set @harry_rag It wasn't so much that Norrie won it as Djokovic lost it. At the price, I still think it was the bet to take.

[Torque]

On 7/6/2022 at 2:25 AM, Torque said:

10pts Halep x Kyrgios x Nadal x Rybakina x Djokovic x Jabeur @ 4.44 365

Djokovic winning saw this one come in, and whilst I'll have a look at both the Men's and Women's finals that's more or less it for the tournament. I'm green on the Men's tournament, where I'd prefer a Kyrgios win and I'm red on the Women's, where I'd much prefer a Jabeur win. As usual, I'll sum up at the end of the tournament. I'm still hopeful of finishing up on the tournament, but it'll depend on how the finals go.

[DrO]

On 6/10/2022 at 8:56 PM, Foo_Fighter said:

Any American player to reach SF, F or be the Winner ? @25.5 

Maybe it's silly, who knows. 

I just want to say: what a shame that Fritz didn't find the way to win against Nadal..so many missed opportunities in that one.. You were on the right track with this pick..fantastic value as well..a pity..

[liquidglass]

Everything about gambling in terms of what will happen during a match is delibrate and has all been comprehensively factored into the odds before the match. We see this when "market moves" transitions into "market forces". Every visual occurence in real time happens the way it does because it can not possibly have happened any other way. In other words everything happens deliberately to line up with an outcome that most certainly precedes the match before the first ball is struck. So I deem it complete rubbish for anyone to suggest that what a player did or did not do affected the outcome. The outcome is an invariable and is independent of whatever is tagged to it. I know that sounds confusingly deep. However it is a fact. It is the main reason why i do not entertain post-game explanations. This indulgence is brutal making no room for second best. You either get it right or wrong. It is that simple. Bookies do not entertain explanations and certainly do not pay out on nearly. I can defend this school of thought all day which is evidence based.

Edited July 8, 2022 by liquidglass

[CzechPunter]

So the players don't actually have any agency! 

[GhostLetter]

3 hours ago, liquidglass said:

Everything about gambling in terms of what will happen during a match is delibrate and has all been comprehensively factored into the odds before the match. We see this when "market moves" transitions into "market forces". Every visual occurence in real time happens the way it does because it can not possibly have happened any other way. In other words everything happens deliberately to line up with an outcome that most certainly precedes the match before the first ball is struck. So I deem it complete rubbish for anyone to suggest that what a player did or did not do affected the outcome. The outcome is an invariable and is independent of whatever is tagged to it. I know that sounds confusingly deep. However it is a fact. It is the main reason why i do not entertain post-game explanations. This indulgence is brutal making no room for second best. You either get it right or wrong. It is that simple. Bookies do not entertain explanations and certainly do not pay out on nearly. I can defend this school of thought all day which is evidence based.

I don’t have a clue what this is referring to, let alone understand it!