Jump to content
Download the PL Forum App!
** ELO Ratings are now back **

Racing chat-thurs 12th May (york day 2)

richard-westwood
 Share

Recommended Posts

The Brigadier

The Brigadier

Posted
Posted

York 1.50

A typical 5F York sprint handicap with 13 going to post. Michael Appleby saddles the progressive Raasel for The Horse Watchers and he has an obvious favourites chance despite a 7lb rise for his latest win at Goodwood when very well backed. He should be thereabouts but at the prices the bet has to be the course specialist Copper Knight who won the last two runnings of this race and his wins to runs record on the Knavesmire stands at 5 from 14. He looks an excellent each way bet.

 

COPPER KNIGHT 1 point each way @ 6/1 william Hill 1/5th 12345

 

Salisbury 2.05

There’s also a six runner class 3 0-90 three year old handicap covered on ITV this afternoon with James Ferguson saddling the likely favourite in Viadelamore, a winner at Redcar on his seasonal re-appearance and now 5lb higher. Andrew Balding sends an interesting handicap debutant in Teumessias Fox who could be competitive but it’s the Harry and Roger Charlton trained bottom weight Brayden Star who’s maybe worth a small wager here. He was slowly away on his handicap debut in a decent three year old handicap at Newmarket at the Craven meeting and ran on to finish a 9 1/4L 8th of 15 to Tranquil Night. The 2nd and the 9th have both won since franking the form and with that run behind him he looks a value play here.

 

BRAYDEN STAR 1 point win @ 15/2 William Hill

 

 

York 2.25

Six fillies go to post for this group 2 10F Middleton Fillies Stakes. Sir Michael Stoute saddles a brace in Ville De Grace who was just touched off in the Dahlia Stakes last time out by Dreamloper and the Juddmonte owned Noon Star who stuck on well to win a listed contest on her re-appearance at Nottingham. The former is the preferred of the pair and should be thereabouts today. The trip looks on the short side for the Irish challenger Forbearance trained by Jessie Harrington. The other Irish challenger is the Ger Lyons trained Thunder Kiss who’s officially the highest rated of the sextet here. She impressed winning a listed race at Cork on her re-appearance and is another that should be involved in the finish. Not an easy race to crack but with a run under her belt its Ville De Grace for me.

 

VILLE DE GRACE 2 points win @ 10/3 William Hill

 

York 3.00

A competitive renewal of the 1m class 2 Hambleton Handicap with 15 going to post. Top weight Brunch was just touched off in this last year and is back to avenge that defeat off of a 3lb higher mark. His course figures here read 1127 and comes here on the back of a career best 3rd in the Group 3 Earl Of Sefton at Newmarket. He should run a big race. Nigel Tinkler is slowly getting going with his string (had a winner on Tuesday at Newcastle) and his Isla Kai ran an eye catching 4th on his re-appearance in the Spring Cup and looks to have a good chance if overcoming his wide draw. Trais Fluors got no sort of run in the Thirsk Hunt Cup last time out and is another with claims along with others. I’ll split my stake between Brunch and Trais Fluors.

 

BRUNCH 1 point each way @ 17/2 William Hill 1/5th 12345

TRAIS FLUORS 1 point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345

 

York 3.35

This year’s Dante Stakes, run over 1m 2F 56yds has attracted a field of 9. Sir Michael Stoute’s Desert Crown has been a Derby gamble over the last week having been backed from as big as 33/1 into 6/1 and looks poor value here having only won a Nottingham maiden on soft ground (all be it in decent style)last November. James Ferguson’s El Bodegon beat the current Derby favourite Stone Age in the Criterium de Saint Cloud on very soft ground last October but has to prove himself on this better ground. The Gosden runner Magisterial did it well enough on his re-appearance at Leicester but this like the favourite this represents a big step up in class. Aidan O’Brien’s representative Bluegrass looks rather exposed and the horse that I’m interested in is the Mark and Charlie Johnstone trained Royal Patronage. Mark Johnstone has won this contest twice in the last five years and his runner is the officially highest rated in the field though can currently be backed at a decent price. He beat this seasons 2000 Guineas winner Coroebus in the Group 2 Royal Lodge at Newmarket last September before bombing out on soft ground in the Vertem Futurity at Doncaster. He made his re-appearance as a 33/1 chance in the 2000 guineas when finishing a credible 8th of 15 beaten 6 1/2L. With that run under his belt and a step up in trip likely to suit with his dam a 10/12F winner in France he looks good each way value.

 

ROYAL PATRONAGE 2 points each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5th 123

 

York 4.10

8 go to post for this listed Weston Stakes run over the minimum trip of 5F. Aidan O’Brien saddles a interesting runner in King Of Bavaria who’s already had a run this year and although not much ahead of the field on ratings will be hard to beat as a lightly raced son of No Nay Never who has all the future fancy group entries. Kevin Ryan’s Boonie beat subsequent winner Mitbaahy at Nottingham last time and looks the danger.

 

KING OF BAVARIA 2 points win @ 7/4 Ladbrokes/Coral

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
kensland

kensland

Posted
Posted (edited)

Double. 

3.50.York.Magisterial......  7/2... unpl 

3.10.Salby.Take a Chance.         9/4.    1st 

 

singles & double. 

Double. 

5.45.Font.Sword Beach.   7/2.... unpl 

4.50.Nmk.Centre Court.        2/1..... 11/2.      1st 

singles & double. 

Good luck all. 

Edited by kensland
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bang on

Bang on

Posted
Posted

Yet again NO DEFINITE selections with my selection process. However, again we have 1 selection that missed out marginally and a couple of others from something that has been doing well for me.

4.18 Sals - Dream by Day - 5/1 - Wears blinkers for the 1st time and this can hopefully make the difference. At the price I was tempted EW but will go for win at small stakes.

4.50 Nmkt - Bolt of Thunder - 5/2 - This Andrew Balding 2yo should beneft for having had a run, and his 2yo runners often improve quite a bit.

8.20 Nmkt - Kitsune Power - 9/4 - Won LTO and now steps up from 7f to 1 mile and can hopefully go in again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
fd1972uk

fd1972uk

Posted
Posted

Didnt really get time to post bets earlier, would have been been a waste of time, washout. 

Have a last flash bet on king of Bavaria but probably shouldn't have bothered with how its went, lol. 

Poor loss. 

Probably keep my pennies for footy, golf and trip to musselburgh on 21st. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
alexcaruso808

alexcaruso808

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, alexcaruso808 said:

3pm York - What's The Story @ 7.50

Came 4th - I should have done an EW bet, but it's only after the fact that you think of these things.

 

I did have a free £5 bet with Bet365 and I put my money on place bet for Brunch - who came 2nd!! Thanks to @The Brigadier and @richard-westwood for that tip.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
The Brigadier

The Brigadier

Posted
Posted
On 5/11/2022 at 10:22 AM, The Brigadier said:

York 1.50

A typical 5F York sprint handicap with 13 going to post. Michael Appleby saddles the progressive Raasel for The Horse Watchers and he has an obvious favourites chance despite a 7lb rise for his latest win at Goodwood when very well backed. He should be thereabouts but at the prices the bet has to be the course specialist Copper Knight who won the last two runnings of this race and his wins to runs record on the Knavesmire stands at 5 from 14. He looks an excellent each way bet.

 

COPPER KNIGHT 1 point each way @ 6/1 william Hill 1/5th 12345

 

Salisbury 2.05

There’s also a six runner class 3 0-90 three year old handicap covered on ITV this afternoon with James Ferguson saddling the likely favourite in Viadelamore, a winner at Redcar on his seasonal re-appearance and now 5lb higher. Andrew Balding sends an interesting handicap debutant in Teumessias Fox who could be competitive but it’s the Harry and Roger Charlton trained bottom weight Brayden Star who’s maybe worth a small wager here. He was slowly away on his handicap debut in a decent three year old handicap at Newmarket at the Craven meeting and ran on to finish a 9 1/4L 8th of 15 to Tranquil Night. The 2nd and the 9th have both won since franking the form and with that run behind him he looks a value play here.

 

BRAYDEN STAR 1 point win @ 15/2 William Hill

 

 

York 2.25

Six fillies go to post for this group 2 10F Middleton Fillies Stakes. Sir Michael Stoute saddles a brace in Ville De Grace who was just touched off in the Dahlia Stakes last time out by Dreamloper and the Juddmonte owned Noon Star who stuck on well to win a listed contest on her re-appearance at Nottingham. The former is the preferred of the pair and should be thereabouts today. The trip looks on the short side for the Irish challenger Forbearance trained by Jessie Harrington. The other Irish challenger is the Ger Lyons trained Thunder Kiss who’s officially the highest rated of the sextet here. She impressed winning a listed race at Cork on her re-appearance and is another that should be involved in the finish. Not an easy race to crack but with a run under her belt its Ville De Grace for me.

 

VILLE DE GRACE 2 points win @ 10/3 William Hill

 

York 3.00

A competitive renewal of the 1m class 2 Hambleton Handicap with 15 going to post. Top weight Brunch was just touched off in this last year and is back to avenge that defeat off of a 3lb higher mark. His course figures here read 1127 and comes here on the back of a career best 3rd in the Group 3 Earl Of Sefton at Newmarket. He should run a big race. Nigel Tinkler is slowly getting going with his string (had a winner on Tuesday at Newcastle) and his Isla Kai ran an eye catching 4th on his re-appearance in the Spring Cup and looks to have a good chance if overcoming his wide draw. Trais Fluors got no sort of run in the Thirsk Hunt Cup last time out and is another with claims along with others. I’ll split my stake between Brunch and Trais Fluors.

 

BRUNCH 1 point each way @ 17/2 William Hill 1/5th 12345

TRAIS FLUORS 1 point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345

 

York 3.35

This year’s Dante Stakes, run over 1m 2F 56yds has attracted a field of 9. Sir Michael Stoute’s Desert Crown has been a Derby gamble over the last week having been backed from as big as 33/1 into 6/1 and looks poor value here having only won a Nottingham maiden on soft ground (all be it in decent style)last November. James Ferguson’s El Bodegon beat the current Derby favourite Stone Age in the Criterium de Saint Cloud on very soft ground last October but has to prove himself on this better ground. The Gosden runner Magisterial did it well enough on his re-appearance at Leicester but this like the favourite this represents a big step up in class. Aidan O’Brien’s representative Bluegrass looks rather exposed and the horse that I’m interested in is the Mark and Charlie Johnstone trained Royal Patronage. Mark Johnstone has won this contest twice in the last five years and his runner is the officially highest rated in the field though can currently be backed at a decent price. He beat this seasons 2000 Guineas winner Coroebus in the Group 2 Royal Lodge at Newmarket last September before bombing out on soft ground in the Vertem Futurity at Doncaster. He made his re-appearance as a 33/1 chance in the 2000 guineas when finishing a credible 8th of 15 beaten 6 1/2L. With that run under his belt and a step up in trip likely to suit with his dam a 10/12F winner in France he looks good each way value.

 

ROYAL PATRONAGE 2 points each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5th 123

 

York 4.10

8 go to post for this listed Weston Stakes run over the minimum trip of 5F. Aidan O’Brien saddles a interesting runner in King Of Bavaria who’s already had a run this year and although not much ahead of the field on ratings will be hard to beat as a lightly raced son of No Nay Never who has all the future fancy group entries. Kevin Ryan’s Boonie beat subsequent winner Mitbaahy at Nottingham last time and looks the danger.

 

KING OF BAVARIA 2 points win @ 7/4 Ladbrokes/Coral

 

A profit of 3.4 points on the day - with one winner and a couple of places. Fridays selections are already uploaded.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
black rabbit

black rabbit

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, black rabbit said:

Bless him   3 00 york    1/5 pt win    25/1         Lost 

George bancroft   6 55 font    1/5 pt  win     10/1       2nd

The dasher conway   5 35 clon   1/5 pt win   12/1         WON 

one winner  { stable had some serious lumps on}      so  beers pizza and watch the football i think

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MCLARKE

MCLARKE

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, black rabbit said:
7 hours ago, black rabbit said:

Bless him   3 00 york    1/5 pt win    25/1         Lost 

George bancroft   6 55 font    1/5 pt  win     10/1       2nd

The dasher conway   5 35 clon   1/5 pt win   12/1         WON 

Edited by black rabbit

one winner  { stable had some serious lumps on}      so  beers pizza and watch the football i think

Excellent tipping but not sure where the 12/1 came from !

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MCLARKE

MCLARKE

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, black rabbit said:

i could not put it up till later in day as had promised contact 

I appreciate that but the price quoted should be that which is available at the time of the post. The best price I could see was 6/1.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
black rabbit

black rabbit

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I appreciate that but the price quoted should be that which is available at the time of the post. The best price I could see was 6/1.

no was 9"s  i auto put up price i took previous night without thinking /   dont worry i wont post any mor on forum 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Valiant Thor

Valiant Thor

Posted
Posted

image.png.7596076242acfa745f610b3e769d144c.png

Nothing much to shout about , Bowers ratings got at least 1 placed in all races bar 1.
The problem with Bower ratings is that they are time dependent in a live market, I suppose the  odds part of his ratings should be taken as near to the race start as possible .

As for my ratings I backed the yellow 'expected value' selections to win only and had a 9/1 winner but 12pts out and 10pts in is not good  ( hardly do ew if , I do I usually do 20%win & 80%place of my stake on BF)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...