Racing Chat - Tuesday 31st August

[Zilzalian]

The final fun 40p lucky 15 (£6.00) in this experiment

305 ripon        case key               9/1               woeful

340 ripon        rum runner           8/1                3rd (given too much to do?)

125 dieppe     lilas de france       8/1                sell to the milkman

340 dieppe     optimism              12/1               2nd ran ok btn by the fav

Prices at posting bet365

Another blank after 30 days the bank finished £70 quid down.

Edited August 31, 2021 by Zilzalian
update

[alexcaruso808]

Ripon

2.00  -  Ayling - 13/2 - win 2nd

2.30  -  Intercessor - 13/2 - win 5th ?

3.05  -  Mark's Choice - 11/4 - win - 2nd 

4.15  -  Near Kettering - 5/2 - win non-runner

 

Epsom

2.15  -  New Mission - 8/13 - win 1st ?

3.25  -  Makashi - 15/2 - win - 3rd

5.05  -  Chloholteen - 9/2 - win - 7th

 

Hexham

6.45  -  Sea Prince - 11/8 - win 2nd

 

Good luck all.

Edited August 31, 2021 by alexcaruso808
Results update

[roger2256]

August  -41

1pt level stakes win only 

17.05 Eps Lanika 28/1

17.45 Hex Sheriff  Garrett 13/2

Prices as of now b365  

[alexcaruso808]

Do you ever put your picks here then a few hours later you look at them and think "this horse has no chance of winning!"  ?

[fd1972uk]

Treble (free bet). 

Selbys Path  8/11 RIP 1300

Marks Choice 5/2 RIP 1505

Hey Teacher 6/4 EPS 1600

[Valiant Thor]

9 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Do you ever put your picks here then a few hours later you look at them and think "this horse has no chance of winning!"  ?

Whether it wins or not is irrelevant

The art is trying to ensure your perceived chance of it winning is better than the odds suggest.

Even if you have a 5% edge on heads in the flip of a coin (H @ 2.1 T @ 1.9) you can still lose over a set amount of time due to variance

ie  Flip a coin every day for a year and back heads every time some years you will win others you will lose even though you have an 'edge'

[alexcaruso808]

1 minute ago, Valiant Thor said:

Whether it wins or not is irrelevant

The art is trying to ensure your perceived chance of it winning is better than the odds suggest.

Even if you have a 5% edge on heads in the flip of a coin (H @ 2.1 T @ 1.9) you can still lose over a set amount of time due to variance

ie  Flip a coin every day for a year and back heads every time some years you will win others you will lose even though you have an 'edge'

That's a good way to think about it.  

[Nigwilliam]

Rip 200 Gnat Alley 7/2   4th

Rip 305 Princess Power 4/1  5th

Eps 435 Arenas Del Tiempo 7/2  1st.

50p win patent. = £3.50.           bet365.

Edited August 31, 2021 by Nigwilliam
Result

[LEE-GRAYS]

a few 50p e/w bets all with bet365

Ripon

1.00 Ardons lady 25/1 

2.00 Tinkerstar 10/1 

3.40 Rum runner 6/1 placed

4.15 Cloudy rose 11/2 

Epsom

1.45 Deacs delight 13/2 

3.25 Pitchcombe 14/1 placed

4.35 Mirage mac 15/2

Newton Abbot

7.00 Third estate 50/1

Hexham 

5.15 Kapsize 15/2winner 9/1 bog

6.45 Just call me al 6/1

7.15 Strategic 66/1

g/l cheers lee

Edited September 1, 2021 by LEE-GRAYS

[azzybear]

nicks not wonder 4.00 also had a rev fc with hey teacher

[The Equaliser]

BEST OF THE BEST

It was quite shocking yesterday to find that 13 out of 15 of these lost.  I know I get feelings of the sporting media press supporting the bookmaking industry with their selections but perhaps it is just the nature of horse racing.  In any event it would seem that even combined experts cannot find selections to make their punters some money. I am now thinking of an angle on this of finding two challengers to the clear short priced favourite qualifiers , anything from 1/2 to 2/1 against and having half a point win on each.  If the qualifier is not favourite then no bet.  I will see how that goes.  My experiment of backing the big 3 selections in a multiple ends earlier than scheduled since the small choice of available selections at available prices with reservations about most of them does not seem worthwhile.  My choice for multiples will now revolve around a wider range of tipster selections including PL members recommendations.

1.00 Selb's Pride Evens (was 8/11 last night) DTR

4.15 Rip Near Kettering 9/2, 11/2 (was on offer at 9/4, 11/4 last night) Had £2 to win at 8.6 = £14.90 p if it wins.

Sure the market says the wheels have dropped off it but hopefully it is the same horse turning up.  My battle with trying to understand markets seems to be ever confusing.  The bookies always shorten up prices when they suspect that they could be exposed to a winner.  However, I am in the "drifters" or "higher price" camp in an effort to try and gain some sort of edge.  For those who are persuaded that the market knows best I suggest that they follow what @MCLARKE  once wrote, I believe, and this is to WAIT until a few minutes just before a race is set to go off and then strike your bet on the market mover.  In the hours running up to the start of a race there are too many price movements that may dupe one into thinking that a specific horse is the main market mover only to find that come the time of the race another beast has taken it place.

4.25 N Abb Beholden 2/7 steady DTR

5.15 Hex Captain Cobajay 2/1 (13/8 last night)

6.45 Hex Sea Prince 5/4 steady DTR

Got up late today so late in looking up Hot Trainers runners today

 

 

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection

Epsom 5.05

CHLOHOLTEEN 3/1

[Valiant Thor]

47 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

It was quite shocking yesterday to find that 13 out of 15 of these lost

Why is that , they're just paid guessers nothing more nothing less

The above validates my point, there's only 2 in profit from there naps ,Charlatans the lot of them.

Dont fall for the bullshit thrown out , ''I get paid for the hours I put in studying'' , It hasn't done them much good has it ?

If your going to lose lose your own way, not following some of these lot over a cliff.

Im glad they dont make aeroplanes

 

[Wildgarden]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

BEST OF THE BEST

It was quite shocking yesterday to find that 13 out of 15 of these lost.  I know I get feelings of the sporting media press supporting the bookmaking industry with their selections but perhaps it is just the nature of horse racing.  In any event it would seem that even combined experts cannot find selections to make their punters some money. I am now thinking of an angle on this of finding two challengers to the clear short priced favourite qualifiers , anything from 1/2 to 2/1 against and having half a point win on each.  If the qualifier is not favourite then no bet.  I will see how that goes.  My experiment of backing the big 3 selections in a multiple ends earlier than scheduled since the small choice of available selections at available prices with reservations about most of them does not seem worthwhile.  My choice for multiples will now revolve around a wider range of tipster selections including PL members recommendations.

1.00 Selb's Pride Evens (was 8/11 last night) DTR

4.15 Rip Near Kettering 9/2, 11/2 (was on offer at 9/4, 11/4 last night) Had £2 to win at 8.6 = £14.90 p if it wins.

Sure the market says the wheels have dropped off it but hopefully it is the same horse turning up.  My battle with trying to understand markets seems to be ever confusing.  The bookies always shorten up prices when they suspect that they could be exposed to a winner.  However, I am in the "drifters" or "higher price" camp in an effort to try and gain some sort of edge.  For those who are persuaded that the market knows best I suggest that they follow what @MCLARKE  once wrote, I believe, and this is to WAIT until a few minutes just before a race is set to go off and then strike your bet on the market mover.  In the hours running up to the start of a race there are too many price movements that may dupe one into thinking that a specific horse is the main market mover only to find that come the time of the race another beast has taken it place.

4.25 N Abb Beholden 2/7 steady DTR

5.15 Hex Captain Cobajay 2/1 (13/8 last night)

6.45 Hex Sea Prince 5/4 steady DTR

Got up late today so late in looking up Hot Trainers runners today

 

 

the pros my look at horse temprament and appearance etc before race so lump on near adn often winner when backed in heavily just before off as fav. can do urself if u have the right subcriptions and know what to look for.

[Wildgarden]

25 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:

Why is that , they're just paid guessers nothing more nothing less

The above validates my point, there's only 2 in profit from there naps ,Charlatans the lot of them.

Dont fall for the bullshit thrown out , ''I get paid for the hours I put in studying'' , It hasn't done them much good has it ?

If your going to lose lose your own way, not following some of these lot over a cliff.

Im glad they dont make aeroplanes

 

hey they make the rest better value as more people back the papers tipsters lol

[Bang on]

The majority will take the easy option and tip favourites. As favourites only win around 1 in 3 meaning that 2/3 lose, it would be difficult to make a profit unless being very selective with them.

[Bang on]

2 for today,

4.00 Epsom - Hey Teacher (11/10) , 1st time in a handicap, O. Murphy rides. WON

5.45 Hex - Cyrus Keep (4/1) , CD winner, visored for the 1st time. lost

 

Edited September 1, 2021 by Bang on

[Zilzalian]

2 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

BEST OF THE BEST

It was quite shocking yesterday to find that 13 out of 15 of these lost.  I know I get feelings of the sporting media press supporting the bookmaking industry with their selections but perhaps it is just the nature of horse racing.  In any event it would seem that even combined experts cannot find selections to make their punters some money. I am now thinking of an angle on this of finding two challengers to the clear short priced favourite qualifiers , anything from 1/2 to 2/1 against and having half a point win on each.  If the qualifier is not favourite then no bet.  I will see how that goes.  My experiment of backing the big 3 selections in a multiple ends earlier than scheduled since the small choice of available selections at available prices with reservations about most of them does not seem worthwhile.  My choice for multiples will now revolve around a wider range of tipster selections including PL members recommendations.

1.00 Selb's Pride Evens (was 8/11 last night) DTR

4.15 Rip Near Kettering 9/2, 11/2 (was on offer at 9/4, 11/4 last night) Had £2 to win at 8.6 = £14.90 p if it wins.

Sure the market says the wheels have dropped off it but hopefully it is the same horse turning up.  My battle with trying to understand markets seems to be ever confusing.  The bookies always shorten up prices when they suspect that they could be exposed to a winner.  However, I am in the "drifters" or "higher price" camp in an effort to try and gain some sort of edge.  For those who are persuaded that the market knows best I suggest that they follow what @MCLARKE  once wrote, I believe, and this is to WAIT until a few minutes just before a race is set to go off and then strike your bet on the market mover.  In the hours running up to the start of a race there are too many price movements that may dupe one into thinking that a specific horse is the main market mover only to find that come the time of the race another beast has taken it place.

4.25 N Abb Beholden 2/7 steady DTR

5.15 Hex Captain Cobajay 2/1 (13/8 last night)

6.45 Hex Sea Prince 5/4 steady DTR

Got up late today so late in looking up Hot Trainers runners today

 

 

With respect, your taking your time discovering the obvious. Might i suggest you experiment with the most winners table on here? They seem to do pretty well, or you could just experiment with random favs.

Edited August 31, 2021 by Zilzalian

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

With respect, your taking your time discovering the obvious. Might i suggest you experiment with the most winners table on here? They seem to do pretty well, or you could just experiment with random favs.

Many thanks.  As I said above I will be looking elsewhere to find my multiple selections.  I wonder why you say I am spending my time to find the obvious?  Is it obvious then that staff paid to find winners by the the premium publications in the UK  hire idiots to put up selections for punters to follow?  This doesn't seem to make sense to me.  If they don't give out enough winners then they lose credibility.  I did and do not expect the big 3 selections to be profitable but imo it is worthwhile to list them out so as to find other angles on the selections as mentioned in my post.  Would you "lay" all their selections? That's another possible profitable angle.

 

 

[alexcaruso808]

8 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Many thanks.  As I said above I will be looking elsewhere to find my multiple selections.  I wonder why you say I am spending my time to find the obvious?  Is it obvious then that staff paid to find winners by the the premium publications in the UK  hire idiots to put up selections for punters to follow?  This doesn't seem to make sense to me.  If they don't give out enough winners then they lose credibility.  I did and do not expect the big 3 selections to be profitable but imo it is worthwhile to list them out so as to find other angles on the selections as mentioned in my post.  Would you "lay" all their selections? That's another possible profitable angle.

You can be sure as soon as you lay a selection it will win ?

[harry_rag]

6 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I wonder why you say I am spending my time to find the obvious?  Is it obvious then that staff paid to find winners by the the premium publications in the UK  hire idiots to put up selections for punters to follow?

They're not necessarily idiots but they have a job to do and it's not showing a profit from their tips. If it was, the rate of staff turnover would be through the roof! I'd say they're more journalists hired to provide content to stimulate interest in the day's racing, to provide a suggestion for the more casual punters. I'm not entirely sure what you've been doing but it's long been something I've regarded as obvious (from the days when I regularly bought the RP for the sports content and glanced at the racing pages) that hardly any newspaper tipsters show a profit.

I think part of the issue is having to put up a selection for every race, day in day out. My most profitable market at the moment is anytime goalscorers but I bet my record would look at lot worse if I had to provide a pick in every game. I'd be spreading myself too thin and providing bets in some games just for the sake of it. As it is, I only bet in the games where I can see a strong enough selection, I can back 2 or 3 players in the same game, and I can have a day off when no bets appeal. One of our advantages over the bookies is supposed to be that we can be selective; we don't have to bet on every market in every game, we can specialise and choose when to bet and when not to bet.

The constraints that the newspaper tipsters work under are such that I'd say it's almost impossible to show a long term profit. It is hard to imagine a successful strategy based on looking at their selections. 

Maybe try looking at the most successful tipsters on here and seeing what the returns are like when 2 or more agree on the same selection! 

[Zilzalian]

22 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

They're not necessarily idiots but they have a job to do and it's not showing a profit from their tips. If it was, the rate of staff turnover would be through the roof! I'd say they're more journalists hired to provide content to stimulate interest in the day's racing, to provide a suggestion for the more casual punters. I'm not entirely sure what you've been doing but it's long been something I've regarded as obvious (from the days when I regularly bought the RP for the sports content and glanced at the racing pages) that hardly any newspaper tipsters show a profit.

I think part of the issue is having to put up a selection for every race, day in day out. My most profitable market at the moment is anytime goalscorers but I bet my record would look at lot worse if I had to provide a pick in every game. I'd be spreading myself too thin and providing bets in some games just for the sake of it. As it is, I only bet in the games where I can see a strong enough selection, I can back 2 or 3 players in the same game, and I can have a day off when no bets appeal. One of our advantages over the bookies is supposed to be that we can be selective; we don't have to bet on every market in every game, we can specialise and choose when to bet and when not to bet.

The constraints that the newspaper tipsters work under are such that I'd say it's almost impossible to show a long term profit. It is hard to imagine a successful strategy based on looking at their selections. 

Maybe try looking at the most successful tipsters on here and seeing what the returns are like when 2 or more agree on the same selection! 

Story- i once worked in a nightclub that was owned by a former journalist (not tipster) he said one day the "lads" at the paper had been on a night out and were hammered the next day. "the racing Journalist" turned to one of the other journalists (not racing) and said "do us a favour and pick a horse in every race and send it to the sports editor" I kid you not.

[Zilzalian]

53 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Many thanks.  As I said above I will be looking elsewhere to find my multiple selections.  I wonder why you say I am spending my time to find the obvious?  Is it obvious then that staff paid to find winners by the the premium publications in the UK  hire idiots to put up selections for punters to follow?  This doesn't seem to make sense to me.  If they don't give out enough winners then they lose credibility.  I did and do not expect the big 3 selections to be profitable but imo it is worthwhile to list them out so as to find other angles on the selections as mentioned in my post.  Would you "lay" all their selections? That's another possible profitable angle.

 

 

I dont do "Lays" but if i did i would ask Carlsburg ??? hope you didn't waste money on something you didn't expect to be profitable.

[The Equaliser]

58 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

I dont do "Lays" but if i did i would ask Carlsburg ??? hope you didn't waste money on something you didn't expect to be profitable.

I just find it all fascinating that combining the three main sporting press tipsters still manages to lose money.  And don't forget, I also added in both top rated (DTR) selections too.  To be fair to them I will continue to report during September but will only back their selections when they are at decent prices, which isn't very often.  I will try half a point win on two other runners when the prices of their clear favourites are between 1/2 & 2/1.  No bet if they are not favourite though.  Let's see if that makes a profit.  There is always an angle on anything and I hope to find it ? 

[Zilzalian]

10 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I just find it all fascinating that combining the three main sporting press tipsters still manages to lose money.  And don't forget, I also added in both top rated (DTR) selections too.  To be fair to them I will continue to report during September but will only back their selections when they are at decent prices, which isn't very often.  I will try half a point win on two other runners when the prices of their clear favourites are between 1/2 & 2/1.  No bet if they are not favourite though.  Let's see if that makes a profit.  There is always an angle on anything and I hope to find it ? 

You can test any theory just by looking at past results, that way it costs you nothing.

[The Equaliser]

36 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

You can test any theory just by looking at past results, that way it costs you nothing.

I can't do that because my reasons for choosing the two opponents will vary.  Sure, I could do it if I was to say only choose the second and 3rd favourites but I don't want to be tied to that.  Beside, I never paper trade; it is too boring.  I'd rather risk small sums of cash and see how it goes. 

[Valiant Thor]

4 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I just find it all fascinating that combining the three main sporting press tipsters still manages to lose money.

Just 2 things if you must continue this folly

1/ You will never win money because you flit from one 'idea' to another like a butterfly on crack looking for the perfect flower. (it aint going to happen)
Something doesn't work as singles you try a trixie ,that doesn't work, you'll try a yankee, you'll stick the same losing selections into a lucky 15 oh surprise surprise that doesn't work either. Its been bleeding obvious since Gods dog was alive they dont make money blindly following their selections, if they did every bookmaker on the planet would be shut down, even a blind man on a galloping horse could see that .

2/ I care not who you describe as 'the top 3' but If you even spent a modicum of your time actually analysing these 'tips' you'll find somewhere near what looks like a profit in just 4 lines
First............. Split these tips into naps only by any one of your 'the top 3'
Second........ Split the naps into handicap / non handicap selections
Third.............You should find the return (profit) from the winners split approx 20/25% to 75/80% in the non handicaps favour (ergo: most of the profit comes from them)
Fourth...........Ditch the Handicap naps
TA~DAAAA  your somewhat nearer to making a profit in 4 lines of the bleeding obvious than you have been since you started

I'll make the bleeding obvious even more bleeding obvious

The RP has a selection box with 13 paid guessers for each meeting
look at the selections of the NON HCP races only
If there is only 1 horse that is napped then that is a selection (it may be napped by more than 1 guesser as long as its the only horse napped its a selection )

The mind boggling theory behind this is for all the crap they turn out they might actually spend some real time selecting a decent horse as a nap and if no other horse has been napped then not much attention has been paid to them, ergo; all being well it should be a reasonable selection due to it
a) being the only napped horse in a race
b) the handicapper hasn't messed about with the weights yet

There were 3 selections today actualy

Epsom 3.15 New Mission (Newmarket nap) won @ 4/5
Epsom 4.35 Uncle Dick (The Times nap) lost @ 9/2 (was also my selection in £20 challenge but for different reasons than above , SIGH )
NAbb 4.25 Beholden (Lambourn nap) won @ 1/4

Restrictive odds on the winners maybe but dutching all 3 would have produced a 30% roi .

A steady drip fills a bucket as they say and all for free, it brings a tear to your eye ?

 

[fd1972uk]

Marks Choice let down my treble.

[MCLARKE]

10 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Flat selection

Epsom 5.05

CHLOHOLTEEN 3/1

A disappointing end to the month with a run of 8 losers. It has been a strange month with 10 winners out of 14 before the losing run. Overall a 4th consecutive month to show a profit.

37 / 108, lsp + £25.20.

 

[The Equaliser]

3 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

Just 2 things if you must continue this folly

1/ You will never win money because you flit from one 'idea' to another like a butterfly on crack looking for the perfect flower. (it aint going to happen)
Something doesn't work as singles you try a trixie ,that doesn't work, you'll try a yankee, you'll stick the same losing selections into a lucky 15 oh surprise surprise that doesn't work either. Its been bleeding obvious since Gods dog was alive they dont make money blindly following their selections, if they did every bookmaker on the planet would be shut down, even a blind man on a galloping horse could see that .

2/ I care not who you describe as 'the top 3' but If you even spent a modicum of your time actually analysing these 'tips' you'll find somewhere near what looks like a profit in just 4 lines
First............. Split these tips into naps only by any one of your 'the top 3'
Second........ Split the naps into handicap / non handicap selections
Third.............You should find the return (profit) from the winners split approx 20/25% to 75/80% in the non handicaps favour (ergo: most of the profit comes from them)
Fourth...........Ditch the Handicap naps
TA~DAAAA  your somewhat nearer to making a profit in 4 lines of the bleeding obvious than you have been since you started

I'll make the bleeding obvious even more bleeding obvious

The RP has a selection box with 13 paid guessers for each meeting
look at the selections of the NON HCP races only
If there is only 1 horse that is napped then that is a selection (it may be napped by more than 1 guesser as long as its the only horse napped its a selection )

The mind boggling theory behind this is for all the crap they turn out they might actually spend some real time selecting a decent horse as a nap and if no other horse has been napped then not much attention has been paid to them, ergo; all being well it should be a reasonable selection due to it
a) being the only napped horse in a race
b) the handicapper hasn't messed about with the weights yet

There were 3 selections today actualy

Epsom 3.15 New Mission (Newmarket nap) won @ 4/5
Epsom 4.35 Uncle Dick (The Times nap) lost @ 9/2 (was also my selection in £20 challenge but for different reasons than above , SIGH )
NAbb 4.25 Beholden (Lambourn nap) won @ 1/4

Restrictive odds on the winners maybe but dutching all 3 would have produced a 30% roi .

A steady drip fills a bucket as they say and all for free, it brings a tear to your eye ?

 

Many thanks for your assistance in trying to make me profitable.  All the above is not free because you have to subscribe or buy the Racing Post to get the information unless you are hanging around a news stand to get it.

My point is that the three main on line sporting tipsters, RP Spotlight, ATR /Oddschecker (= same selections) and the Timeform selections as published on the ATR web site when combined together should do better than they have been doing.  It is no excuse imo to say that the writers are under pressure to meet deadlines and so have to make a hurried choice or stick a pin in the race card and print what comes out.  These people charge the betting public money for giving out information that should help them find winners.  It is just not good enough

I know that I could look at Naps, I subscribe to Napchecker and have access to all the Naps that are available when I want them.

My exercise has only run for the last part of August.  It must be worthwhile to continue it, even if it gives guys like you an edge in concluding that the selections will lose and therefore you can comfortably eliminate the runner and focus on other horses in the race. 

As I have said I will continue this for September but will be opposing the selections where they are short priced favourites.  I will place 1/2 a point on each selection and see how they stack against the big 3's selections on a points basis.

I will also continue with my multiple bets whether it be a Trixie or Yankee, I would never do a lucky 15.

Good luck with your MLM selection process I hope that it starts working again for you soon