Racing Chat - Tuesday 31st August

[The Equaliser]

12 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

BEST OF THE BEST

It was quite shocking yesterday to find that 13 out of 15 of these lost.  I know I get feelings of the sporting media press supporting the bookmaking industry with their selections but perhaps it is just the nature of horse racing.  In any event it would seem that even combined experts cannot find selections to make their punters some money. I am now thinking of an angle on this of finding two challengers to the clear short priced favourite qualifiers , anything from 1/2 to 2/1 against and having half a point win on each.  If the qualifier is not favourite then no bet.  I will see how that goes.  My experiment of backing the big 3 selections in a multiple ends earlier than scheduled since the small choice of available selections at available prices with reservations about most of them does not seem worthwhile.  My choice for multiples will now revolve around a wider range of tipster selections including PL members recommendations.

1.00 Selb's Pride Evens (was 8/11 last night) DTR

4.15 Rip Near Kettering 9/2, 11/2 (was on offer at 9/4, 11/4 last night) Had £2 to win at 8.6 = £14.90 p if it wins.

Sure the market says the wheels have dropped off it but hopefully it is the same horse turning up.  My battle with trying to understand markets seems to be ever confusing.  The bookies always shorten up prices when they suspect that they could be exposed to a winner.  However, I am in the "drifters" or "higher price" camp in an effort to try and gain some sort of edge.  For those who are persuaded that the market knows best I suggest that they follow what @MCLARKE  once wrote, I believe, and this is to WAIT until a few minutes just before a race is set to go off and then strike your bet on the market mover.  In the hours running up to the start of a race there are too many price movements that may dupe one into thinking that a specific horse is the main market mover only to find that come the time of the race another beast has taken it place.

4.25 N Abb Beholden 2/7 steady DTR

5.15 Hex Captain Cobajay 2/1 (13/8 last night)

6.45 Hex Sea Prince 5/4 steady DTR

Got up late today so late in looking up Hot Trainers runners today

 

 

RESULTS UPDATE

The big 3 had 2 winners and 3 losers today making about half a point profit

 

 

[Valiant Thor]

12 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Good luck with your MLM selection process I hope that it starts working again for you soon

MLM ?
whatever

I'll leave you to lose the rest of your bank in peace

 

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, Valiant Thor said:

MLM ?
whatever

I'll leave you to lose the rest of your bank in peace

 

Machine Learning Programming

 

[Zilzalian]

13 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

Just 2 things if you must continue this folly

1/ You will never win money because you flit from one 'idea' to another like a butterfly on crack looking for the perfect flower. (it aint going to happen)
Something doesn't work as singles you try a trixie ,that doesn't work, you'll try a yankee, you'll stick the same losing selections into a lucky 15 oh surprise surprise that doesn't work either. Its been bleeding obvious since Gods dog was alive they dont make money blindly following their selections, if they did every bookmaker on the planet would be shut down, even a blind man on a galloping horse could see that .

2/ I care not who you describe as 'the top 3' but If you even spent a modicum of your time actually analysing these 'tips' you'll find somewhere near what looks like a profit in just 4 lines
First............. Split these tips into naps only by any one of your 'the top 3'
Second........ Split the naps into handicap / non handicap selections
Third.............You should find the return (profit) from the winners split approx 20/25% to 75/80% in the non handicaps favour (ergo: most of the profit comes from them)
Fourth...........Ditch the Handicap naps
TA~DAAAA  your somewhat nearer to making a profit in 4 lines of the bleeding obvious than you have been since you started

I'll make the bleeding obvious even more bleeding obvious

The RP has a selection box with 13 paid guessers for each meeting
look at the selections of the NON HCP races only
If there is only 1 horse that is napped then that is a selection (it may be napped by more than 1 guesser as long as its the only horse napped its a selection )

The mind boggling theory behind this is for all the crap they turn out they might actually spend some real time selecting a decent horse as a nap and if no other horse has been napped then not much attention has been paid to them, ergo; all being well it should be a reasonable selection due to it
a) being the only napped horse in a race
b) the handicapper hasn't messed about with the weights yet

There were 3 selections today actualy

Epsom 3.15 New Mission (Newmarket nap) won @ 4/5
Epsom 4.35 Uncle Dick (The Times nap) lost @ 9/2 (was also my selection in £20 challenge but for different reasons than above , SIGH )
NAbb 4.25 Beholden (Lambourn nap) won @ 1/4

Restrictive odds on the winners maybe but dutching all 3 would have produced a 30% roi .

A steady drip fills a bucket as they say and all for free, it brings a tear to your eye ?

 

Interesting observations but alas it falls on deaf ears, The Equaliser has found something that "interests" him and he is quite happy to spend good money flogging dead horses (pun intended) but fair play to him he puts it out there and takes it on the chin. The man is not for wavering even in the face of often overwhelming evidence. I have a simple philosophy, "if it aint working stop doing it"

[LEE-GRAYS]

22 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

a few 50p e/w bets all with bet365

Ripon

1.00 Ardons lady 25/1 

2.00 Tinkerstar 10/1 

3.40 Rum runner 6/1 placed

4.15 Cloudy rose 11/2 

Epsom

1.45 Deacs delight 13/2 

3.25 Pitchcombe 14/1 placed

4.35 Mirage mac 15/2

Newton Abbot

7.00 Third estate 50/1

Hexham 

5.15 Kapsize 15/2winner 9/1 bog

6.45 Just call me al 6/1

7.15 Strategic 66/1

g/l cheers lee

1 winner again small loss

Out £11 In £9.40

[Valiant Thor]

2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Interesting observations

I dont have any stats on 'tipsters' per say as I pay absolutely no attention to them whatsoever.(fools gold springs to mind)
The observations come from my own personal naps (Hcp & non Hcp) where the majority of my profit comes from my non handicap naps.
So in theory (Einstein made a living out of these ?) If similar happens with 'tipsters' then a similar ratio should apply.
If I did have any data I could run a Monte Carlo simulation and give a better idea re profit / loss but unfortunately I don't and I have no intention of collating any just to prove point.
As their profit / loss shows , combined it is a blatantly obvious all there tips are crap so looking at their best guesses (naps) one would surmise should at least get some wheat from the chaff.
Hope that gives you a little more insight into the thinking behind it 

 

[MCLARKE]

3 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

The Equaliser has found something that "interests" him and he is quite happy to spend good money flogging dead horses (pun intended) but fair play to him he puts it out there and takes it on the chin.

Yep, I do admire his enthusiasm, even if some believe it to be a little misguided.

[MCLARKE]

16 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:

As their profit / loss shows , combined it is a blatantly obvious all there tips are crap

I think these are shown at SP and we all know how difficult it is to show a profit at SP. They may specialise in certain types of races or be successful with certain trainers but without doing detailed analysis it would be difficult to tell.