Racing Chat- Saturday 14th August

[The Brigadier]

York’s Ebor meeting is on the horizon but we have some decent terrestrial televised racing for Saturday with 8 races shown by ITV. The ground should be perfect for all three meetings with the likeliest fastest ground found at Newmarket. Here we go then with my thoughts and selections for Saturday:- 

 

Newbury 145

The 7F Denford Stakes is for two year olds and is better known by its old title of the Washington Singer Stakes. To my eyes this looks like a straight match between Andrew Balding’s Masekela and Roger Varian’s Bayside Boy. Both stables are in red hot form with slight preference for the latter who impressed me immensely when winning over course and distance on his debut when Varian was struggling for two year old winners. This New Bay colt came late and fast to quicken past the red hot favourite of the Gosden’s looking all over a pattern performer. I’ll take him over Masekela who has more substance to his form having run Godolphin’s Native Trail to a short head in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket in July. 

BAYSIDE BAY 3 points win @ 7/4 Bet365

 

Newmarket 200

It has to be said that Pam Sly’s mare Eileendover has been a tad disappointing in her three runs on the level this flat season. As one of my 20 to follow for the season I was expecting to see her contesting the Ebor next weekend but her three runs on the level have only given her a mark of 92 which would be nowhere near enough to get her into the big race next weekend. She can however run here in this 14F fillies only handicap and it looks a good place to start her handicap campaign off. She can run well and may have most to fear from William Haggas’s Midrarr fresh from winning at Wolverhampton in the week and having to shoulder a 5lb penalty for that success. She’s on a roll although may not be as suited to turf as she is to a synthetic surface. The other 5 runners all have a chance of sorts but I’ve got to give my old friend Eileendover a final chance to prove that she’s smart. 

EILEENDOVER 2 points win @ 9/2 Bet365

 

Newbury 220

Last year’s comfortable winner Hukum is back to defend his title in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes and despite having to carry a 3lb penalty for his recent Group 3 win at York can follow up. Owen Burrow’s flag bearer impressed that day over 14F and won’t mind the slight drop in distance or if there was the odd shower or two. The owners retained jockey Jim Crowley is in the saddle as he has been for all of the Sea The Star’s nine career starts. For a Group 3 the opposition is quite tame in my opinion with the best possibly the tenacious Golden Pass of Hugo Palmer’s. He ideally needs fast ground though so any showers would be against her. He won’t be much of a price I’m afraid but Hukum really should be winning this. 

HUKUM 3 points win @ EVS Bet365

 

Newmarket 235

A unique annual race is the grey horse handicap open only to horses registered as grey. In this PC world we live in I’m surprised no one has stood up and campaigned for races for other coloured horses!! Case Key won this very race in 2017 and 2019 and has claims as has Mitrosonfire who just got up on the line in the Shergar Cup at Ascot last Saturday and has only been raised a pound. He’s the likely danger to my selection which is Eve Johnson Houghton’s My Style who has previous in this race himself having finished 3rd in 2019 (to Case Key) and by winning it last year  off of a mark of 72 which is 2lb lower than he can race off of now. He has actually won off of 76 so is on a mark lower than his last winning one and looks to have been primed for this contest today with regular rider Georgia Dobie in the saddle. He looks sure to go well and can be backed each way. 

MY STYLE 2 points each way @ 7/1 1/5^th 123 William Hills

 

Newbury 255

Two horses stand out here to me in this 7F 0-95 handicap and they’re the two three year olds. Aratus is the current favourite and making his handicap debut here could be well treated off of 94 for Clive Cox and Adam Kirby. He’s been pulled out before due to good to soft ground so any easing in the ground would be against him. He looks sure to go well although slight preference is for the Ed Walker trained improver Sunset Bay. She’s on a hat trick following victories at Newbury and Sandown over today’s trip of 7F on soft and then fast ground. She bolted up at Sandown last time and that win wasn’t lost on the handicapper who has shunted her up 9lb. It was interesting that in a recent interview regarding Walkers best chances at York next week he selected this filly as his best chance. Obviously there’s been a change of thought as she runs here but he does believe she’s up to pattern class and if that’s the case she can still have some mileage from her current mark of 89. Hollie Doyle rides her for the first time and she can beat Aratus. 

SUNSET BAY 2 points win @ 7/2 Bet365

 

Ripon 310

The consolation Great St Wilfred Handicap has attracted a maximum field of 20 with Ghathanfar a worthy favourite as Tracy Waggott’s charge comes here in very good form and could be well drawn in stall 20. He is worth backing although I’m actually more interested in Marks Choice who always runs well here, only finishing out of the frame once in ten starts (3011431134) which includes a 3rd in this very race a year ago off of a 7lb higher mark. He won over course and distance back in April on his reappearance off of 77 and can race today off of 75 so is well handicapped if getting back to the form of earlier in the season. He’s had a wind operation since (his fourth!)we last saw him when his jockey said he stopped quickly. It’s worth taking a chance on Sam England’s 5 year old if the operation has worked. His draw of 10 is maybe a negative unfortunately but I can’t resist an each way bet on Cam Hardie’s ride here. 

MARKS CHOICE 1 point each way @ 16/1 1/5^th 123456 Paddy Power

GHATHANFAR 2 points each way @ 15/2 1/5th 123456 Paddy Power

 

Newbury 330

Charlie Appleby’s Al Suhail has been well well backed throughout the week as the people in the know knew that stable companion Space Blues was a doubtful runner and can take this Group 2 Hungerford Stakes run over 7F. William Buick takes over now from Pat Dobbs who certainly looked after this Dubawi half brother to Telecaster amongst others when he re-appeared at Ascot in the Group 2 Summer Mile last month. That was his first start since the Dubai Carnival in March and he has always been held in high regard by the Boys in Blue. The Shadwell pair of Danyah and Motakhayyel look the chief threats and with Jim Crowley choosing the former and with him finishing ahead of Motakhayyel at Ascot last time may turn out to be Al Suhail’s biggest danger. 

AL SUHAIL 2 points win @ 11/4 William Hill

 

Ripon 345

The days big sprint is the Great St Wilfred Handicap run over 6F. I advised an each way bet on last years winner Stanton earlier in the week at 14/1 and am very happy with that suggestion as he’s contracted to half those odds now. He has plenty going for him and looks sure to run a big race with the only negative being his draw in 8 as high numbers appear to have the best chance through the last ten years in this race and the earlier consolation race. For that reason alone I won’t be pressing up the bet and I’m happy enough to leave the staking plan with just Staxton. 

STAXTON 1 point each way @ 14/1 (advised Tuesday) Paddy Power ¼ 1234

 

[Villa Chris]

Some jump racing for me to have a go at tomorrow . Will be starting a profit/loss update with my bets from now on. My top rated for the 3 races I’ve looked at.

Perth 3.50 

Mrs Hyde, current price is 17/2. I’m going to hold off that because forecast odds are 12/1 and it’s not bog until 9.00 tomorrow morning. She’s been out of sorts this year after running well the previous and is now on her last winning mark . Ingleby Hollow is second in the ratings. 
 

Perth 4.25 

Cauis Marcius, currently 7/2, and again I’m going to wait until the morning to see if I can squeeze a bit more out of him. 3/4 at Perth with Brian Hughes on board. Competitive little race but I’m hoping he’s got too much class for the field and I still have him handicapped to win. Second in the ratings is the consistent Dakota Beat 

 

Perth 4.55

Brotherly Company 9/4. I’ve taken the price as I think it will go off shorter. Progressive RPRs and won his last two with ease . Seems to still have a few Ibs to spare so hopefully the hat-trick beckons . Second in the ratings is Top Of The Charts 

All 10 point wins , will update odds at 9 tomorrow 

Edited August 13, 2021 by Villa Chris

[ipswich45]

Bath
1815 - 2 Oakenshield     3/1 William Hill   Unplaced
1915 - 5 Commonsensical    4/1 William Hill
1945 - 8 Alaskan Lady     5/1 William Hill
2015 - 6 Bluebell Time    9/2 William Hill

Doncaster
1500 - 2 Dance Fever   7/4 Bet365  2nd
1605 - 3 Kentucky Kitten   10/3 William Hill  3rd

Newbury
1345 - 6 Seattle King    5/1 Bet365 Unplaced
1635 - 3 Tralee Hills    10/3 Paddy Power 3rd

Newmarket
1505 - 7 First Folio    10/3 William Hill     (Biased selection here)  Unplaced
1615 - 3 Degree      10/3 William Hill  Unplaced

Perth
1520 - 2 Minella Trump   6/4 William Hill  WON
1625 - 3 Shetland Bus   11/2 William Hill  WON

Ripon
1440 - 4 To Everest   17/2 William Hill Unplaced
1545 - 11 Music Society   12/1 Paddy Power  Unplaced

Tramore
1755 - 5 Tropical Cyclone  8/1 Bet365 Unplaced


IRE Horses abroad
Mr O'Brien has sent a couple of horses across the pond for a meeting at Arlington Park with Ryan Moore going over for the ride,  sadly meeting is NOT live on Sky Sports Racing however most bookmakers offer Arlington most evenings they have racing 

Race 7 due off 2249 (approx)
4. Santa Barbara      2/1 on the US Morning Line

Race 9 due off 0013 (approx)
9. Armoury              9/2 on the US Morning Line

in the 9th Race it also includes Domestic Spending for Chad Brown which is the ML favourite which has won the last 4 namely the Manhatten Stakes, Burbourn Turf, Hollywood Derby (all are G1 races) and the Saratoga Derby Invitational 

Edited August 14, 2021 by ipswich45
results being added

[Wildgarden]

can 450 ripon life on the rocks get fahey that much due win 4-1 not bad price for the performance so far.

[Zilzalian]

Fun 40p Lucky 15 for saturday will have to be a 20p ew instead, £6.00 i know i know i said never again but this is a no brainer

345 ripon          Mokaatil              18/1          lost

220 newbury    sleeping lion        20/1          lost

305 newmarket streamline          20/1          lost

330 newbury     nando parado     66/1         lost

 

bit of a duffer this one and a loss of £6.00, no bad luck stories or excuses.

bank back down to £98.80

Edited August 14, 2021 by Zilzalian
update

[roger2256]

August -12

1pt level stakes win only 

14.55 New Jack's Point 25/1 Nr

15.45 Rip Brad the  Brief  25 /1 Lost

Prices as of now b365 

14.45 Per Lord Condi 6/1 b365 Won

+5

August -7 

Edited August 15, 2021 by roger2256
Result

[alexcaruso808]

Doncaster

1.52 -  Beautiful Secret - 10/3 - win - 2nd

2.25 -  Get It - 4/1 - win - 3rd

4.05 -  Buford - 12/1 - ew 1st ?

           Kentucky Kitten - 11/4 - win 3rd

 

Newmarket

1.00 -  Laheg - 5/2 - win - 2nd

1.30 -  Mayfair Stroll - 7/2 - win - 1st ?

 

Bath

5.10 -  Hollbache - 7/2 - win - 4th

6.15 -  Knockabout Queen - 11/2 - ew - 7th

7.15 -  Commonsensical - 7/2 - win 2nd

            Overwrite - 8/1 - ew 1st ?

 

Edited August 14, 2021 by alexcaruso808
Results update

[The Equaliser]

Our illustrious big 3/4 tipsters from the main sporting press all seem to agree on the following:

1.00 Nm Adnaan 11/8/, 6/4

3.40 Nm Top Brass 5/4, 11/10

1.15 Nb Mojo Star 1/20

2.20 Nb Hukum 10/11

3.00 Don Dance Fever 6/4

3.35 Don Papscito 4/7, 1/2

4.20 Rip Kettle Hill 6/4, 13/8

They came up with zilch on Friday with 4 contenders including a 2/5 favourite.

Whilst I would hope that Mojo Star should at least prevail for them I don't see anyone about to make a fortune backing all of these.

There are 48 races in the UK over 7 meetings tomorrow and one would have thought that our prestigious tipsters could have come up with something better than this for their followers.on a busy Saturday's racing.

I believe that it is no coincidence that the big 3/4 tipsters from the main sporting press regularly advise on different selections so as to confuse the armchair punter from making some money

Now to the hard bit; trying to find some value for money bets with my favourite jockeys/apprentices aboard tomorrow

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Villa Chris]

14 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Some jump racing for me to have a go at tomorrow . Will be starting a profit/loss update with my bets from now on. My top rated for the 3 races I’ve looked at.

Perth 3.50 

Mrs Hyde, current price is 17/2. I’m going to hold off that because forecast odds are 12/1 and it’s not bog until 9.00 tomorrow morning. She’s been out of sorts this year after running well the previous and is now on her last winning mark . Ingleby Hollow is second in the ratings. 
 

Perth 4.25 

Cauis Marcius, currently 7/2, and again I’m going to wait until the morning to see if I can squeeze a bit more out of him. 3/4 at Perth with Brian Hughes on board. Competitive little race but I’m hoping he’s got too much class for the field and I still have him handicapped to win. Second in the ratings is the consistent Dakota Beat 

 

Perth 4.55

Brotherly Company 9/4. I’ve taken the price as I think it will go off shorter. Progressive RPRs and won his last two with ease . Seems to still have a few Ibs to spare so hopefully the hat-trick beckons . Second in the ratings is Top Of The Charts 

All 10 point wins , will update odds at 9 tomorrow 

Mrs Hyde has far from drifted. She’s gone the other way. 13/2 from 17/2 last night. I’ve got bog , so see if she drifts, but can’t see forecast odds of 12/1 for her. I’ve taken 4/1 for Cauis Marcius bog again. Brotherly Company has drifted to 11/4 but I took 9/4 last night as I thought he would shorten . 

[fd1972uk]

Also done money back on Golden Pass 1420 Newbury. Free bet double e/w ghathanfar (ripon 1510) and soul seeker (ripon 1545).

My bets on now but Ripon 1545 has me thinking Music Society I should have taken at better odds, but stuck with my options especially Mr Wagyu who has done me good. 

Edited August 14, 2021 by fd1972uk

[fd1972uk]

17 hours ago, The Brigadier said:

York’s Ebor meeting is on the horizon but we have some decent terrestrial televised racing for Saturday with 8 races shown by ITV. The ground should be perfect for all three meetings with the likeliest fastest ground found at Newmarket. Here we go then with my thoughts and selections for Saturday:- 

 

Newbury 145

The 7F Denford Stakes is for two year olds and is better known by its old title of the Washington Singer Stakes. To my eyes this looks like a straight match between Andrew Balding’s Masekela and Roger Varian’s Bayside Boy. Both stables are in red hot form with slight preference for the latter who impressed me immensely when winning over course and distance on his debut when Varian was struggling for two year old winners. This New Bay colt came late and fast to quicken past the red hot favourite of the Gosden’s looking all over a pattern performer. I’ll take him over Masekela who has more substance to his form having run Godolphin’s Native Trail to a short head in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket in July. 

BAYSIDE BAY 3 points win @ 7/4 Bet365

 

Newmarket 200

It has to be said that Pam Sly’s mare Eileendover has been a tad disappointing in her three runs on the level this flat season. As one of my 20 to follow for the season I was expecting to see her contesting the Ebor next weekend but her three runs on the level have only given her a mark of 92 which would be nowhere near enough to get her into the big race next weekend. She can however run here in this 14F fillies only handicap and it looks a good place to start her handicap campaign off. She can run well and may have most to fear from William Haggas’s Midrarr fresh from winning at Wolverhampton in the week and having to shoulder a 5lb penalty for that success. She’s on a roll although may not be as suited to turf as she is to a synthetic surface. The other 5 runners all have a chance of sorts but I’ve got to give my old friend Eileendover a final chance to prove that she’s smart. 

EILEENDOVER 2 points win @ 9/2 Bet365

 

Newbury 220

Last year’s comfortable winner Hukum is back to defend his title in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes and despite having to carry a 3lb penalty for his recent Group 3 win at York can follow up. Owen Burrow’s flag bearer impressed that day over 14F and won’t mind the slight drop in distance or if there was the odd shower or two. The owners retained jockey Jim Crowley is in the saddle as he has been for all of the Sea The Star’s nine career starts. For a Group 3 the opposition is quite tame in my opinion with the best possibly the tenacious Golden Pass of Hugo Palmer’s. He ideally needs fast ground though so any showers would be against her. He won’t be much of a price I’m afraid but Hukum really should be winning this. 

HUKUM 3 points win @ EVS Bet365

 

Newmarket 235

A unique annual race is the grey horse handicap open only to horses registered as grey. In this PC world we live in I’m surprised no one has stood up and campaigned for races for other coloured horses!! Case Key won this very race in 2017 and 2019 and has claims as has Mitrosonfire who just got up on the line in the Shergar Cup at Ascot last Saturday and has only been raised a pound. He’s the likely danger to my selection which is Eve Johnson Houghton’s My Style who has previous in this race himself having finished 3rd in 2019 (to Case Key) and by winning it last year  off of a mark of 72 which is 2lb lower than he can race off of now. He has actually won off of 76 so is on a mark lower than his last winning one and looks to have been primed for this contest today with regular rider Georgia Dobie in the saddle. He looks sure to go well and can be backed each way. 

MY STYLE 2 points each way @ 7/1 1/5^th 123 William Hills

 

Newbury 255

Two horses stand out here to me in this 7F 0-95 handicap and they’re the two three year olds. Aratus is the current favourite and making his handicap debut here could be well treated off of 94 for Clive Cox and Adam Kirby. He’s been pulled out before due to good to soft ground so any easing in the ground would be against him. He looks sure to go well although slight preference is for the Ed Walker trained improver Sunset Bay. She’s on a hat trick following victories at Newbury and Sandown over today’s trip of 7F on soft and then fast ground. She bolted up at Sandown last time and that win wasn’t lost on the handicapper who has shunted her up 9lb. It was interesting that in a recent interview regarding Walkers best chances at York next week he selected this filly as his best chance. Obviously there’s been a change of thought as she runs here but he does believe she’s up to pattern class and if that’s the case she can still have some mileage from her current mark of 89. Hollie Doyle rides her for the first time and she can beat Aratus. 

SUNSET BAY 2 points win @ 7/2 Bet365

 

Ripon 310

The consolation Great St Wilfred Handicap has attracted a maximum field of 20 with Ghathanfar a worthy favourite as Tracy Waggott’s charge comes here in very good form and could be well drawn in stall 20. He is worth backing although I’m actually more interested in Marks Choice who always runs well here, only finishing out of the frame once in ten starts (3011431134) which includes a 3rd in this very race a year ago off of a 7lb higher mark. He won over course and distance back in April on his reappearance off of 77 and can race today off of 75 so is well handicapped if getting back to the form of earlier in the season. He’s had a wind operation since (his fourth!)we last saw him when his jockey said he stopped quickly. It’s worth taking a chance on Sam England’s 5 year old if the operation has worked. His draw of 10 is maybe a negative unfortunately but I can’t resist an each way bet on Cam Hardie’s ride here. 

MARKS CHOICE 1 point each way @ 16/1 1/5^th 123456 Paddy Power

GHATHANFAR 2 points each way @ 15/2 1/5th 123456 Paddy Power

 

Newbury 330

Charlie Appleby’s Al Suhail has been well well backed throughout the week as the people in the know knew that stable companion Space Blues was a doubtful runner and can take this Group 2 Hungerford Stakes run over 7F. William Buick takes over now from Pat Dobbs who certainly looked after this Dubawi half brother to Telecaster amongst others when he re-appeared at Ascot in the Group 2 Summer Mile last month. That was his first start since the Dubai Carnival in March and he has always been held in high regard by the Boys in Blue. The Shadwell pair of Danyah and Motakhayyel look the chief threats and with Jim Crowley choosing the former and with him finishing ahead of Motakhayyel at Ascot last time may turn out to be Al Suhail’s biggest danger. 

AL SUHAIL 2 points win @ 11/4 William Hill

 

Ripon 345

The days big sprint is the Great St Wilfred Handicap run over 6F. I advised an each way bet on last years winner Stanton earlier in the week at 14/1 and am very happy with that suggestion as he’s contracted to half those odds now. He has plenty going for him and looks sure to run a big race with the only negative being his draw in 8 as high numbers appear to have the best chance through the last ten years in this race and the earlier consolation race. For that reason alone I won’t be pressing up the bet and I’m happy enough to leave the staking plan with just Staxton. 

STAXTON 1 point each way @ 14/1 (advised Tuesday) Paddy Power ¼ 1234

Good to see I've picked some of your tips, although staying well clear of Eileendover, hope it comes off for you (I have a pick in the coral as) but that horse don't impress me, don't even fancy it to place even at those odds. 

Backed it after its initial success and didn't place and then thought to give it another try a couple of times and epseically my last bet on it, think.it finished last. 

[Zilzalian]

11 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Fun 40p Lucky 15 for saturday will have to be a 20p ew instead, £6.00 i know i know i said never again but this is a no brainer

345 ripon          Mokaatil              18/1

220 newbury    sleeping lion        20/1

305 newmarket streamline          20/1

330 newbury     nando parado     66/1

145 Newbury Listed - 2YO speed figures

1  Robjon             120               25/1

2  Bayside Boy     119+             6/5

3  Masekela          116               6/4

Nothing special here at this stage of their careers is Robjon worth a little tickle at that price?

[Villa Chris]

25 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

145 Newbury Listed - 2YO speed figures

1  Robjon             120               25/1

2  Bayside Boy     119+             6/5

3  Masekela          116               6/4

Nothing special here at this stage of their careers is Robjon worth a little tickle at that price?

No brainer at that price 

[Darran]

Although the hunter chase season doesn't start until January I will continue to post the pointers/hunter chasers who catch my eye running in handicaps and there are two today at Market Rasen.

 

I put More Buck's up at Stratford last time and he ended up going off joint favourite with Franz Klammer. I must admit given how well handicapped that one turned out to be I'm not sure More Buck's would have beaten him, but he ran no sort of race and for whatever reason he just didn't enjoy himself. On his pointing form this year he is really well handicapped and so well handicapped that I have to give him another chance here at a double figure price. Obviously he could be one of those horses who isn't able to run to form under rules, but you can always forgive a horse a poor run and that Stratford effort was pretty much too bad to be true. Clearly you can't have as much confidence here as you could pre-Stratford, but he has to be given one last chance in a weak race. I thought Writteninthesand and Going Mobile were the biggest dangers, but there certainly doesn't appear to be a Franz Klammer in this contest.

 

More Buck's e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365

 

That race is at 6.35 and half an hour later my old friend Babytaggle is back out. He of course was 2nd in that Stratford race above and he has been unlucky to bump into two well handicapped horses so there was nothing wrong in being well beaten by them. He went much closer when 2nd again last time in a strange contest where he dropped towards the rear at one stage before he stayed on well. For some reason he is now on his 3rd trainer this year and I must admit I don't know too much about Gary Brown although he seems to have recently returned to training so I wouldn't pay too much attention to the fact it's been a very long time since he trained a winner. Again this isn't a strong contest. If Rebel Leader is able to back up his run last time then he will clearly go very close and Train Hill looks like he wants to go this way round as well as this extra trip. Those two look the biggest dangers, but again he looks worth backing e/w.

 

Babytaggle e/w @ 9/1 with Bet365 (3 places 1/4 odds) and the likes of William Hill are 8/1 (4 places 1/5 odds)

[black rabbit]

True Mason     3 10 Ripon   1/4  pt   win 16/1  betfair 

Justanotherbottle   3 45  ripon   1/4 pt win  21/1 betfair 

Sleeping Lion   2 20  newbury  1/4  pt win  29/1  betfair 

Lanequash  3 30  newbury  1/4  pt win  28/1  betfair

George Bowen  2 35 newm  1/4  pt  win  14/1  betfair

Chairmanoftheboard  3 05  newm  1/4  pt  win  25/1  betfair  

 

 

P/L   Account   +  116 pts 

[The Equaliser]

11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Our illustrious big 3/4 tipsters from the main sporting press all seem to agree on the following:

1.00 Nm Adnaan 11/8/, 6/4

3.40 Nm Top Brass 5/4, 11/10

1.15 Nb Mojo Star 1/20

2.20 Nb Hukum 10/11

3.00 Don Dance Fever 6/4

3.35 Don Papscito 4/7, 1/2

4.20 Rip Kettle Hill 6/4, 13/8

They came up with zilch on Friday with 4 contenders including a 2/5 favourite.

Whilst I would hope that Mojo Star should at least prevail for them I don't see anyone about to make a fortune backing all of these.

There are 48 races in the UK over 7 meetings tomorrow and one would have thought that our prestigious tipsters could have come up with something better than this for their followers.on a busy Saturday's racing.

I believe that it is no coincidence that the big 3/4 tipsters from the main sporting press regularly advise on different selections so as to confuse the armchair punter from making some money

Now to the hard bit; trying to find some value for money bets with my favourite jockeys/apprentices aboard tomorrow

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Only had a chance to look at Newmarket so far:

1.00 Roudemental (RK a lot of fancied rides today) (unraced) £1 win at 10/1

1.30 External Glory (BC/MJ) Mark Johnson is a bit like Marmite; you love him or hate him) £1 win at 8/1

2.00 Quenelle D'or (GD5) 5/1 is too short for me (I have to have some scruples despite working on the race)

2.35 Case Key (LM/MA) Despite the price this looks like a good bet.  £1 win at 11/1

3.05 Sunset Breeze (LM/Sir M P) £1 win at 8/1

3.40 Top Brass was shown as 5/4, 11/10 last night and has now drifted to 5/2.  I can't see anything else in the race but no play fro me

4.15 Don't Tell Claire £2 win at 11/2 (Jack Mitchell in great form at present. There are doubts about Degree so Ill go with the better priced alternative

Couldn't resist a small 50p win Trixie = £2.00 on External Glory, Case Key and Don't Tell Claire = poss return of £510.25

Hopefully will have a chance to look at Newbury soon.  That's the trouble with Saturday's too many good races all crammed together

 

 

 

 

 

 

[calva decoy]

335 Donny - Next Victory 15/2 ew 

455 Perth - Vocaliser 14/1 ew 

[The Equaliser]

19 hours ago, The Brigadier said:

York’s Ebor meeting is on the horizon but we have some decent terrestrial televised racing for Saturday with 8 races shown by ITV. The ground should be perfect for all three meetings with the likeliest fastest ground found at Newmarket. Here we go then with my thoughts and selections for Saturday:- 

 

Newbury 145

The 7F Denford Stakes is for two year olds and is better known by its old title of the Washington Singer Stakes. To my eyes this looks like a straight match between Andrew Balding’s Masekela and Roger Varian’s Bayside Boy. Both stables are in red hot form with slight preference for the latter who impressed me immensely when winning over course and distance on his debut when Varian was struggling for two year old winners. This New Bay colt came late and fast to quicken past the red hot favourite of the Gosden’s looking all over a pattern performer. I’ll take him over Masekela who has more substance to his form having run Godolphin’s Native Trail to a short head in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket in July. 

BAYSIDE BAY 3 points win @ 7/4 Bet365

 

Newmarket 200

It has to be said that Pam Sly’s mare Eileendover has been a tad disappointing in her three runs on the level this flat season. As one of my 20 to follow for the season I was expecting to see her contesting the Ebor next weekend but her three runs on the level have only given her a mark of 92 which would be nowhere near enough to get her into the big race next weekend. She can however run here in this 14F fillies only handicap and it looks a good place to start her handicap campaign off. She can run well and may have most to fear from William Haggas’s Midrarr fresh from winning at Wolverhampton in the week and having to shoulder a 5lb penalty for that success. She’s on a roll although may not be as suited to turf as she is to a synthetic surface. The other 5 runners all have a chance of sorts but I’ve got to give my old friend Eileendover a final chance to prove that she’s smart. 

EILEENDOVER 2 points win @ 9/2 Bet365

 

Newbury 220

Last year’s comfortable winner Hukum is back to defend his title in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes and despite having to carry a 3lb penalty for his recent Group 3 win at York can follow up. Owen Burrow’s flag bearer impressed that day over 14F and won’t mind the slight drop in distance or if there was the odd shower or two. The owners retained jockey Jim Crowley is in the saddle as he has been for all of the Sea The Star’s nine career starts. For a Group 3 the opposition is quite tame in my opinion with the best possibly the tenacious Golden Pass of Hugo Palmer’s. He ideally needs fast ground though so any showers would be against her. He won’t be much of a price I’m afraid but Hukum really should be winning this. 

HUKUM 3 points win @ EVS Bet365

 

Newmarket 235

A unique annual race is the grey horse handicap open only to horses registered as grey. In this PC world we live in I’m surprised no one has stood up and campaigned for races for other coloured horses!! Case Key won this very race in 2017 and 2019 and has claims as has Mitrosonfire who just got up on the line in the Shergar Cup at Ascot last Saturday and has only been raised a pound. He’s the likely danger to my selection which is Eve Johnson Houghton’s My Style who has previous in this race himself having finished 3rd in 2019 (to Case Key) and by winning it last year  off of a mark of 72 which is 2lb lower than he can race off of now. He has actually won off of 76 so is on a mark lower than his last winning one and looks to have been primed for this contest today with regular rider Georgia Dobie in the saddle. He looks sure to go well and can be backed each way. 

MY STYLE 2 points each way @ 7/1 1/5^th 123 William Hills

 

Newbury 255

Two horses stand out here to me in this 7F 0-95 handicap and they’re the two three year olds. Aratus is the current favourite and making his handicap debut here could be well treated off of 94 for Clive Cox and Adam Kirby. He’s been pulled out before due to good to soft ground so any easing in the ground would be against him. He looks sure to go well although slight preference is for the Ed Walker trained improver Sunset Bay. She’s on a hat trick following victories at Newbury and Sandown over today’s trip of 7F on soft and then fast ground. She bolted up at Sandown last time and that win wasn’t lost on the handicapper who has shunted her up 9lb. It was interesting that in a recent interview regarding Walkers best chances at York next week he selected this filly as his best chance. Obviously there’s been a change of thought as she runs here but he does believe she’s up to pattern class and if that’s the case she can still have some mileage from her current mark of 89. Hollie Doyle rides her for the first time and she can beat Aratus. 

SUNSET BAY 2 points win @ 7/2 Bet365

 

Ripon 310

The consolation Great St Wilfred Handicap has attracted a maximum field of 20 with Ghathanfar a worthy favourite as Tracy Waggott’s charge comes here in very good form and could be well drawn in stall 20. He is worth backing although I’m actually more interested in Marks Choice who always runs well here, only finishing out of the frame once in ten starts (3011431134) which includes a 3rd in this very race a year ago off of a 7lb higher mark. He won over course and distance back in April on his reappearance off of 77 and can race today off of 75 so is well handicapped if getting back to the form of earlier in the season. He’s had a wind operation since (his fourth!)we last saw him when his jockey said he stopped quickly. It’s worth taking a chance on Sam England’s 5 year old if the operation has worked. His draw of 10 is maybe a negative unfortunately but I can’t resist an each way bet on Cam Hardie’s ride here. 

MARKS CHOICE 1 point each way @ 16/1 1/5^th 123456 Paddy Power

GHATHANFAR 2 points each way @ 15/2 1/5th 123456 Paddy Power

 

Newbury 330

Charlie Appleby’s Al Suhail has been well well backed throughout the week as the people in the know knew that stable companion Space Blues was a doubtful runner and can take this Group 2 Hungerford Stakes run over 7F. William Buick takes over now from Pat Dobbs who certainly looked after this Dubawi half brother to Telecaster amongst others when he re-appeared at Ascot in the Group 2 Summer Mile last month. That was his first start since the Dubai Carnival in March and he has always been held in high regard by the Boys in Blue. The Shadwell pair of Danyah and Motakhayyel look the chief threats and with Jim Crowley choosing the former and with him finishing ahead of Motakhayyel at Ascot last time may turn out to be Al Suhail’s biggest danger. 

AL SUHAIL 2 points win @ 11/4 William Hill

 

Ripon 345

The days big sprint is the Great St Wilfred Handicap run over 6F. I advised an each way bet on last years winner Stanton earlier in the week at 14/1 and am very happy with that suggestion as he’s contracted to half those odds now. He has plenty going for him and looks sure to run a big race with the only negative being his draw in 8 as high numbers appear to have the best chance through the last ten years in this race and the earlier consolation race. For that reason alone I won’t be pressing up the bet and I’m happy enough to leave the staking plan with just Staxton. 

STAXTON 1 point each way @ 14/1 (advised Tuesday) Paddy Power ¼ 1234

 

I can't help feeling that you have nicked the narrative from the Timeform verdict in regards to the 3.30 at Newbury.  No offence meant

[The Equaliser]

11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Only had a chance to look at Newmarket so far:

1.00 Roudemental (RK a lot of fancied rides today) (unraced) £1 win at 10/1

1.30 External Glory (BC/MJ) Mark Johnson is a bit like Marmite; you love him or hate him) £1 win at 8/1

2.00 Quenelle D'or (GD5) 5/1 is too short for me (I have to have some scruples despite working on the race)

2.35 Case Key (LM/MA) Despite the price this looks like a good bet.  £1 win at 11/1

3.05 Sunset Breeze (LM/Sir M P) £1 win at 8/1

3.40 Top Brass was shown as 5/4, 11/10 last night and has now drifted to 5/2.  I can't see anything else in the race but no play fro me

4.15 Don't Tell Claire £2 win at 11/2 (Jack Mitchell in great form at present. There are doubts about Degree so Ill go with the better priced alternative

Couldn't resist a small 50p win Trixie = £2.00 on External Glory, Case Key and Don't Tell Claire = poss return of £510.25

Hopefully will have a chance to look at Newbury soon.  That's the trouble with Saturday's too many good races all crammed together

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Newbury selections:

£2 win Trixie = £8.00 with poss retunr of £112.50

1.45 Masekela (WB( 6/4

2.55 Ajyall (TM)11/4

4.00 Camelot Tales (WB) 2/1

Singles:

2.55 Aratus (AK) £3.10 win at 3.7 = £8.20 ins cover bet for my Trixie

3.30 Motakhayyel £2 win at 5.7 = £9.21 p if it wins + ins cover of £1 win on Al Suhail (WB) at 11/4

4.00 Billy Peyto (TM) £1 win at 7/1

Totoal stakes so far £23.10

I can't seem to find Oisin Murphy to bail me out if all the above fail to fire

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Effectively just one winner today which was Aratus to cover my Trixie Bet,  I was a bit unlucky with Don't Tell Claire getting beat so a net loss today of £11.80.  This makes my new balance £687.69 (Bank £1056.22)

The big 3/4 had 4 winners, two losers and one non runner today.  Using £1 level stakes I calculate that followers would be about £1 in profit at the end of the day.  Great eh?

Three UK meetings tomorrow and it looks like Oisin Murphy will appear at Chelmsford after being Awol today.  Hopefully I can find and match up some good jockey bookings at some of the meetings

Have pleasant dreams I know I will

 

 

 

 

Edited August 14, 2021 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection

Newbury 1.45

MAKSELA 6/4

 

[Tedthewolf]

Ripon 3.45- Easterby has a stong hand in this i like his  GOLDEN APOLLO e/w if in the mood should go very  close off curremt mark 14/1 boylesports bog 1/5 1-5 wouldmt wanna tale anyshorter than 14's but just about happy to take that price on. The other one i give a fair e/w shout to is  BRAD THE BRIEF 20/1 7 places bog is fair enough from William Hill  this horse is thrown back into handicap company today  has been poor in highger company and i expect a better showing from BTB today. Very hard  race to call but hopfully these 2 will give me a good run for my doe good luck whatever you back.?

 

[fd1972uk]

4 hours ago, fd1972uk said:

Good to see I've picked some of your tips, although staying well clear of Eileendover, hope it comes off for you (I have a pick in the coral as) but that horse don't impress me, don't even fancy it to place even at those odds. 

Backed it after its initial success and didn't place and then thought to give it another try a couple of times and epseically my last bet on it, think.it finished last. 

Won quite well, lol. The 2 favs were terrible. 

[Villa Chris]

4 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

145 Newbury Listed - 2YO speed figures

1  Robjon             120               25/1

2  Bayside Boy     119+             6/5

3  Masekela          116               6/4

Nothing special here at this stage of their careers is Robjon worth a little tickle at that price?

Good stuff , although wrong way round. Did you have reverse forecast ?

[The Brigadier]

2 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I can't help feeling that you have nicked the narrative from the Timeform verdict in regards to the 3.30 at Newbury.  No offence meant

Pure coincidence !! I do use Timeform but I'm sure you'll agree I'm very much one to have my own opinion !

[Zilzalian]

14 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Good stuff , although wrong way round. Did you have reverse forecast ?

no i dont touch them at that price to be honest i went for Robjohn to beat the other two in Forecasts just in case and a win bet on Robjohn so it cost me that one. if i was a short price backer i would have bet bayside so i wouldnt have won anyway. and thats usually part of my reasoning, why lose on non value when u can risk a little to win a lot.

[fd1972uk]

,Stuck last minute bet on Mitrosonfire at 5/2, so on top of Hukum profit for today. 

Also a couple of footy bets paying off, relatively small so decent day so far. 

[The Equaliser]

10 minutes ago, The Brigadier said:

Pure coincidence !! I do use Timeform but I'm sure you'll agree I'm very much one to have my own opinion !

Many thanks, you know how nervous I get about Timeform or Racing Post advice.  These publications, in my opinion, pay lip service to the bookies so I don't trust them.

I'm just wondering in what way you use Timeform? Is it to make use of their ratings or is it something else?

 

[alexcaruso808]

22 hours ago, The Brigadier said:

York’s Ebor meeting is on the horizon but we have some decent terrestrial televised racing for Saturday with 8 races shown by ITV. The ground should be perfect for all three meetings with the likeliest fastest ground found at Newmarket. Here we go then with my thoughts and selections for Saturday:- 

 

Newbury 145

The 7F Denford Stakes is for two year olds and is better known by its old title of the Washington Singer Stakes. To my eyes this looks like a straight match between Andrew Balding’s Masekela and Roger Varian’s Bayside Boy. Both stables are in red hot form with slight preference for the latter who impressed me immensely when winning over course and distance on his debut when Varian was struggling for two year old winners. This New Bay colt came late and fast to quicken past the red hot favourite of the Gosden’s looking all over a pattern performer. I’ll take him over Masekela who has more substance to his form having run Godolphin’s Native Trail to a short head in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket in July. 

BAYSIDE BAY 3 points win @ 7/4 Bet365

 

Newmarket 200

It has to be said that Pam Sly’s mare Eileendover has been a tad disappointing in her three runs on the level this flat season. As one of my 20 to follow for the season I was expecting to see her contesting the Ebor next weekend but her three runs on the level have only given her a mark of 92 which would be nowhere near enough to get her into the big race next weekend. She can however run here in this 14F fillies only handicap and it looks a good place to start her handicap campaign off. She can run well and may have most to fear from William Haggas’s Midrarr fresh from winning at Wolverhampton in the week and having to shoulder a 5lb penalty for that success. She’s on a roll although may not be as suited to turf as she is to a synthetic surface. The other 5 runners all have a chance of sorts but I’ve got to give my old friend Eileendover a final chance to prove that she’s smart. 

EILEENDOVER 2 points win @ 9/2 Bet365

 

Newbury 220

Last year’s comfortable winner Hukum is back to defend his title in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes and despite having to carry a 3lb penalty for his recent Group 3 win at York can follow up. Owen Burrow’s flag bearer impressed that day over 14F and won’t mind the slight drop in distance or if there was the odd shower or two. The owners retained jockey Jim Crowley is in the saddle as he has been for all of the Sea The Star’s nine career starts. For a Group 3 the opposition is quite tame in my opinion with the best possibly the tenacious Golden Pass of Hugo Palmer’s. He ideally needs fast ground though so any showers would be against her. He won’t be much of a price I’m afraid but Hukum really should be winning this. 

HUKUM 3 points win @ EVS Bet365

 

Newmarket 235

A unique annual race is the grey horse handicap open only to horses registered as grey. In this PC world we live in I’m surprised no one has stood up and campaigned for races for other coloured horses!! Case Key won this very race in 2017 and 2019 and has claims as has Mitrosonfire who just got up on the line in the Shergar Cup at Ascot last Saturday and has only been raised a pound. He’s the likely danger to my selection which is Eve Johnson Houghton’s My Style who has previous in this race himself having finished 3rd in 2019 (to Case Key) and by winning it last year  off of a mark of 72 which is 2lb lower than he can race off of now. He has actually won off of 76 so is on a mark lower than his last winning one and looks to have been primed for this contest today with regular rider Georgia Dobie in the saddle. He looks sure to go well and can be backed each way. 

MY STYLE 2 points each way @ 7/1 1/5^th 123 William Hills

 

Newbury 255

Two horses stand out here to me in this 7F 0-95 handicap and they’re the two three year olds. Aratus is the current favourite and making his handicap debut here could be well treated off of 94 for Clive Cox and Adam Kirby. He’s been pulled out before due to good to soft ground so any easing in the ground would be against him. He looks sure to go well although slight preference is for the Ed Walker trained improver Sunset Bay. She’s on a hat trick following victories at Newbury and Sandown over today’s trip of 7F on soft and then fast ground. She bolted up at Sandown last time and that win wasn’t lost on the handicapper who has shunted her up 9lb. It was interesting that in a recent interview regarding Walkers best chances at York next week he selected this filly as his best chance. Obviously there’s been a change of thought as she runs here but he does believe she’s up to pattern class and if that’s the case she can still have some mileage from her current mark of 89. Hollie Doyle rides her for the first time and she can beat Aratus. 

SUNSET BAY 2 points win @ 7/2 Bet365

 

Ripon 310

The consolation Great St Wilfred Handicap has attracted a maximum field of 20 with Ghathanfar a worthy favourite as Tracy Waggott’s charge comes here in very good form and could be well drawn in stall 20. He is worth backing although I’m actually more interested in Marks Choice who always runs well here, only finishing out of the frame once in ten starts (3011431134) which includes a 3rd in this very race a year ago off of a 7lb higher mark. He won over course and distance back in April on his reappearance off of 77 and can race today off of 75 so is well handicapped if getting back to the form of earlier in the season. He’s had a wind operation since (his fourth!)we last saw him when his jockey said he stopped quickly. It’s worth taking a chance on Sam England’s 5 year old if the operation has worked. His draw of 10 is maybe a negative unfortunately but I can’t resist an each way bet on Cam Hardie’s ride here. 

MARKS CHOICE 1 point each way @ 16/1 1/5^th 123456 Paddy Power

GHATHANFAR 2 points each way @ 15/2 1/5th 123456 Paddy Power

 

Newbury 330

Charlie Appleby’s Al Suhail has been well well backed throughout the week as the people in the know knew that stable companion Space Blues was a doubtful runner and can take this Group 2 Hungerford Stakes run over 7F. William Buick takes over now from Pat Dobbs who certainly looked after this Dubawi half brother to Telecaster amongst others when he re-appeared at Ascot in the Group 2 Summer Mile last month. That was his first start since the Dubai Carnival in March and he has always been held in high regard by the Boys in Blue. The Shadwell pair of Danyah and Motakhayyel look the chief threats and with Jim Crowley choosing the former and with him finishing ahead of Motakhayyel at Ascot last time may turn out to be Al Suhail’s biggest danger. 

AL SUHAIL 2 points win @ 11/4 William Hill

 

Ripon 345

The days big sprint is the Great St Wilfred Handicap run over 6F. I advised an each way bet on last years winner Stanton earlier in the week at 14/1 and am very happy with that suggestion as he’s contracted to half those odds now. He has plenty going for him and looks sure to run a big race with the only negative being his draw in 8 as high numbers appear to have the best chance through the last ten years in this race and the earlier consolation race. For that reason alone I won’t be pressing up the bet and I’m happy enough to leave the staking plan with just Staxton. 

STAXTON 1 point each way @ 14/1 (advised Tuesday) Paddy Power ¼ 1234

 

You are on fine form today!!!  Nice 16/1 with Mark's Choice.

[The Brigadier]

23 hours ago, The Brigadier said:

York’s Ebor meeting is on the horizon but we have some decent terrestrial televised racing for Saturday with 8 races shown by ITV. The ground should be perfect for all three meetings with the likeliest fastest ground found at Newmarket. Here we go then with my thoughts and selections for Saturday:- 

 

Newbury 145

The 7F Denford Stakes is for two year olds and is better known by its old title of the Washington Singer Stakes. To my eyes this looks like a straight match between Andrew Balding’s Masekela and Roger Varian’s Bayside Boy. Both stables are in red hot form with slight preference for the latter who impressed me immensely when winning over course and distance on his debut when Varian was struggling for two year old winners. This New Bay colt came late and fast to quicken past the red hot favourite of the Gosden’s looking all over a pattern performer. I’ll take him over Masekela who has more substance to his form having run Godolphin’s Native Trail to a short head in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket in July. 

BAYSIDE BAY 3 points win @ 7/4 Bet365

 

Newmarket 200

It has to be said that Pam Sly’s mare Eileendover has been a tad disappointing in her three runs on the level this flat season. As one of my 20 to follow for the season I was expecting to see her contesting the Ebor next weekend but her three runs on the level have only given her a mark of 92 which would be nowhere near enough to get her into the big race next weekend. She can however run here in this 14F fillies only handicap and it looks a good place to start her handicap campaign off. She can run well and may have most to fear from William Haggas’s Midrarr fresh from winning at Wolverhampton in the week and having to shoulder a 5lb penalty for that success. She’s on a roll although may not be as suited to turf as she is to a synthetic surface. The other 5 runners all have a chance of sorts but I’ve got to give my old friend Eileendover a final chance to prove that she’s smart. 

EILEENDOVER 2 points win @ 9/2 Bet365

 

Newbury 220

Last year’s comfortable winner Hukum is back to defend his title in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes and despite having to carry a 3lb penalty for his recent Group 3 win at York can follow up. Owen Burrow’s flag bearer impressed that day over 14F and won’t mind the slight drop in distance or if there was the odd shower or two. The owners retained jockey Jim Crowley is in the saddle as he has been for all of the Sea The Star’s nine career starts. For a Group 3 the opposition is quite tame in my opinion with the best possibly the tenacious Golden Pass of Hugo Palmer’s. He ideally needs fast ground though so any showers would be against her. He won’t be much of a price I’m afraid but Hukum really should be winning this. 

HUKUM 3 points win @ EVS Bet365

 

Newmarket 235

A unique annual race is the grey horse handicap open only to horses registered as grey. In this PC world we live in I’m surprised no one has stood up and campaigned for races for other coloured horses!! Case Key won this very race in 2017 and 2019 and has claims as has Mitrosonfire who just got up on the line in the Shergar Cup at Ascot last Saturday and has only been raised a pound. He’s the likely danger to my selection which is Eve Johnson Houghton’s My Style who has previous in this race himself having finished 3rd in 2019 (to Case Key) and by winning it last year  off of a mark of 72 which is 2lb lower than he can race off of now. He has actually won off of 76 so is on a mark lower than his last winning one and looks to have been primed for this contest today with regular rider Georgia Dobie in the saddle. He looks sure to go well and can be backed each way. 

MY STYLE 2 points each way @ 7/1 1/5^th 123 William Hills

 

Newbury 255

Two horses stand out here to me in this 7F 0-95 handicap and they’re the two three year olds. Aratus is the current favourite and making his handicap debut here could be well treated off of 94 for Clive Cox and Adam Kirby. He’s been pulled out before due to good to soft ground so any easing in the ground would be against him. He looks sure to go well although slight preference is for the Ed Walker trained improver Sunset Bay. She’s on a hat trick following victories at Newbury and Sandown over today’s trip of 7F on soft and then fast ground. She bolted up at Sandown last time and that win wasn’t lost on the handicapper who has shunted her up 9lb. It was interesting that in a recent interview regarding Walkers best chances at York next week he selected this filly as his best chance. Obviously there’s been a change of thought as she runs here but he does believe she’s up to pattern class and if that’s the case she can still have some mileage from her current mark of 89. Hollie Doyle rides her for the first time and she can beat Aratus. 

SUNSET BAY 2 points win @ 7/2 Bet365

 

Ripon 310

The consolation Great St Wilfred Handicap has attracted a maximum field of 20 with Ghathanfar a worthy favourite as Tracy Waggott’s charge comes here in very good form and could be well drawn in stall 20. He is worth backing although I’m actually more interested in Marks Choice who always runs well here, only finishing out of the frame once in ten starts (3011431134) which includes a 3rd in this very race a year ago off of a 7lb higher mark. He won over course and distance back in April on his reappearance off of 77 and can race today off of 75 so is well handicapped if getting back to the form of earlier in the season. He’s had a wind operation since (his fourth!)we last saw him when his jockey said he stopped quickly. It’s worth taking a chance on Sam England’s 5 year old if the operation has worked. His draw of 10 is maybe a negative unfortunately but I can’t resist an each way bet on Cam Hardie’s ride here. 

MARKS CHOICE 1 point each way @ 16/1 1/5^th 123456 Paddy Power

GHATHANFAR 2 points each way @ 15/2 1/5th 123456 Paddy Power

 

Newbury 330

Charlie Appleby’s Al Suhail has been well well backed throughout the week as the people in the know knew that stable companion Space Blues was a doubtful runner and can take this Group 2 Hungerford Stakes run over 7F. William Buick takes over now from Pat Dobbs who certainly looked after this Dubawi half brother to Telecaster amongst others when he re-appeared at Ascot in the Group 2 Summer Mile last month. That was his first start since the Dubai Carnival in March and he has always been held in high regard by the Boys in Blue. The Shadwell pair of Danyah and Motakhayyel look the chief threats and with Jim Crowley choosing the former and with him finishing ahead of Motakhayyel at Ascot last time may turn out to be Al Suhail’s biggest danger. 

AL SUHAIL 2 points win @ 11/4 William Hill

 

Ripon 345

The days big sprint is the Great St Wilfred Handicap run over 6F. I advised an each way bet on last years winner Stanton earlier in the week at 14/1 and am very happy with that suggestion as he’s contracted to half those odds now. He has plenty going for him and looks sure to run a big race with the only negative being his draw in 8 as high numbers appear to have the best chance through the last ten years in this race and the earlier consolation race. For that reason alone I won’t be pressing up the bet and I’m happy enough to leave the staking plan with just Staxton. 

STAXTON 1 point each way @ 14/1 (advised Tuesday) Paddy Power ¼ 1234

 

A decent day, finding a couple of winners at 9/2 and 16/1 (20/1 SP) with a tidy daily profit of 19 points. I'll be back next Tuesday late afternoon for my thoughts on the TV races at York although all my daily selections are available between 5 and 6 o'clock on the 'racing tips' tab. 

[calva decoy]

6 hours ago, calva decoy said:

335 Donny - Next Victory 15/2 ew 

455 Perth - Vocaliser 14/1 ew 

The usual Saturday shocker whereas I've ringed Taj Alriyadh , Garden Oasis , Ms Ghandi , George Bancroft at Ripon Adnaan , Mayfair Stroll , Mitrosinfire , Great Ambassador & First Dance at Newmarket , Hukum , Aratus , Sacred at Newbury ,& Minella Trump at Perth all winners & I've backed none of them though 4-2-1 in ITV 7 best I've done for ages ?