Pricing your own race

[Villa Chris]

Naas 1.15 

Bachasson 9.1, 7/4(7/2) won 

Grand Roi 8, 6/1(4/1-9/2) 2nd 

Beacon Edge 7.8 2/1(4/1-9/2) 3rd 

Not the hardest race to call, and just concentrating on top 3 rated in a 6 horse race. Grand Roi the new kid on the block  who has plenty of improvement in him, but he’ll need it in this race. That’s the value bet anyway. 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Villa Chris

[richard-westwood]

49 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Couple of grade 3 races in Ireland tomorrow. Small fields so will have a bash at that along with one or two at Catterick. Happy enough so far but still reluctant to start betting proper money, as still early , but out of the races I’ve rated since Richard kindly explained the % per section, I’d be well up . See how tomorrow goes then may start proper next weekend to try and get some spending money for Cheltenham. 
 

p.s Grade 3 races are basically top end handicap races are they not? 

Yeah like listed group 3 on flat 

[Villa Chris]

2.00 Catterick 

Informateur 9.4 , 5/1(5/2-3/1)

Evander 7.45 , 10/3(4/1)

Heartbreak Kid 5.6 , 7/2(11/2)

Stay Humble 4.95, 12/1(13/2)

Glenduff 3.6, 12/1(9/1)

Jack Valentine 3.4, 2/1(9/1)

Ey Up Rocky 1.5, 11/1(23/1)

Hope this goes ahead, because top rated looks a cracking bet. It’s a novice race so there are horses that could be hidden in terms of potential which may not show in the ratings , but Infomatuer has some strong form and will be hard to beat for some of the less experienced types who are yet to run over fences or have only had the one run. Venetia Williams Jack Valentine could be one of the horses that is better than it’s rating and is favourite but we’ll see. I don’t tend to bother with these kind of races. 

Edited January 30, 2021 by Villa Chris

[Villa Chris]

8 hours ago, Robb089 said:

Hi all,

New to the forums, but decided to sign up as I’d inadvertently stumbled across this discussion.

I’ve been reading the comments and I’m keen to learn more about pricing up your own race and determining value based on your own assessment. For me, nothing better then picking an outsider who runs well, even if it’s only placed.

I’ve been trying to follow the principles, and have drawn up my own spreadsheet. But having worked through a few races I’m not sure I’m fully on board with the concept. Would anyone be willing to have a quick look to see where I’m going wrong?

I think the possible down fall maybe that I don’t use my own form rating and rely solely on the Official Ratings.

Any help or advice is appreciated - hopefully I’ll be able to add some value into the discussion.

Cheers,

Robbo

Welcome Robbo . I’m just starting doing my own ratings, and it’s all down to the folks on here. Don’t be afraid to ask anything and don’t worry about getting things wrong, we’ve all done it and still do it. If you could actually put up how you do your ratings then I’m sure some of the more experienced members could give you some insight into what’s working and what probably isn’t going to work . 

[richard-westwood]

Tackling non hcaps now .....just need to get this right now and I'll be happy ....

340 wolv

Jungle boogaloo 6.3 6/1 13/2 value 

Poppy jag 5.5 7/1 9.0 value

Jean's maite 4.9  8/1 11/2 no value 

6f wolves I prefer to be drawn low so that's negative for Jean's maite.....I'll try top 2 ...5ptsboth at 13/2 pp...and 9.0 betfair 

 

 

Edited January 30, 2021 by richard-westwood

[MCLARKE]

3 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

6f wolves I prefer to be drawn low so that's negative for Jean's maite

What is the logic for this Richard.

I am currently working on an AW system and one of the factors is the opposite of this, low drawn horses have a poor profit record, for those drawn 1-5 the AE is 0.93, for those drawn higher than 5 the AE is 1.08.

[Trotter]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

What is the logic for this Richard.

I am currently working on an AW system and one of the factors is the opposite of this, low drawn horses have a poor profit record, for those drawn 1-5 the AE is 0.93, for those drawn higher than 5 the AE is 1.08.

I wonder if that's just herd instinct at work ........ the AW tracks apart from Newcastle are tight with turns. I guess it could be the case that logic says you need to be drawn on the inside to get the advantage of the bends ....... so the horses drawn low get over-bet and the horses drawn high are relatively ignored

I know I'm guilty of this ...... any AW race I look at I tend to favour the low drawn horses ...... maybe everyone else does too !

 

[richard-westwood]

4 hours ago, Trotter said:

I wonder if that's just herd instinct at work ........ the AW tracks apart from Newcastle are tight with turns. I guess it could be the case that logic says you need to be drawn on the inside to get the advantage of the bends ....... so the horses drawn low get over-bet and the horses drawn high are relatively ignored

I know I'm guilty of this ...... any AW race I look at I tend to favour the low drawn horses ...... maybe everyone else does too !

 

Lol ....you've hit the nail trotter ....no the truth is I've been to wolves racing at least I'd say 25 times ....and ive always found over 5f 6f ...you want to be drawn low 8 ..unless your a very fast starter you will lose position very early on and the tight bends make it very difficult to make up any ground until it's too late ....I know this as fact as I've seen it myself time and time again ....its like if your drawn 12 or above ....your chance is almost zero even if your fav ....coffin boxes I call it .....makes sense if you think about it 

Only blip is stall 1 ....youd think better but what tends to happen is the ones on the outside break first and get to the rail quicker cutting you off .....so theres aslight negative to that one 

Watch some races .....time and time again over sprint distances you'll find first 3 home are all drawn low 8 ....I know that for certain ....I wont back above 8 in sprints ...because I know I'm 50% less likely to win 

I've had some right touches using it .....before the lockdown I went for the usual saturday night beers and a laugh  ...first race was 5f handicap.....favourite was drawn 10 .  .I rated the bottom 8 draws and top rated was a full 5 pts clear .  .. .drawn 3 .  16/1 .... won easy ..200 quid up first race ...fav finished 5th got boxed in ....that was the last race meeting I went to before all this happened ?

Edited January 31, 2021 by richard-westwood

[Wildgarden]

9 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

What is the logic for this Richard.

I am currently working on an AW system and one of the factors is the opposite of this, low drawn horses have a poor profit record, for those drawn 1-5 the AE is 0.93, for those drawn higher than 5 the AE is 1.08.

Also better to be a front runner at these distances, not held up or mid division, especially 5f. Here's a chart below showing AE for 6f, handicap only Wolverhampton 20-1 or under... Higher drawn is best, this is over last 10 years. If we only include up to 10-1, the two outside draws are even more impressive! (below first chart)

Edited January 31, 2021 by Wildgarden

[Robb089]

Many thanks for the warm welcome fellas.

My method pretty much replicates the original concept described by Richard in earlier posts. My scoring is determined as follows;

Last Time Out (40%)
1st /2nd - 10pts
3rd/4th - 8 pts
5th/6th - 6 pts
7th/8th - 4 pts
9th + - 2 pts

Class [If not a handicap race] (15%)
Won above race class - 10pts
Won in race class - 8pts
Placed this class - 6pts
Won 1 class below - 4pts
Any other class win or place - 2 pts
 

Handicap [used for Hcps instead of class above] (15%)
Off current mark - 10pts
1lbs above last win - 8pts
2/3 lbs above last win - 6pts
4/5 lbs above last win - 4pts
6+ lbs above last win - 2 pts

Distance (15%)
Won dist - 10pts
Placed dist - 8pts
Won within 2f - 6pts
Placed within 2f - 4pts
No form 3f + - 2 pts

Ground (20%)
Won ground - 10pts
Placed placed - 8pts
Won near ground cond - 6pts
Placed near ground cond - 4pts
Ground not close - 2 pts

Course (10%)
Won - 10pts
Placed - 6pts
No form - 2pts

The above then gives me a horse score using Richards previous principles which we then convert in to a Horse % which is used to change into Odds based on the chart supplied by Brigadier.

I had a crack yesterday at 3 races at Doncaster, broken down as follows, Horse Score, Horse %, My Odds, Sky Bet Odds

2.05 Mares Chase
Floressa - 8.5, 17.8, 9/2, 2/1
Maries Rock - 6.5, 13.6, 6/1, 2/1
Irish Roe - 8.9, 18.6, 9/2, 11/1
Miranda - 7.5, 15.7, 6/1, 11/4
Raynas World - 8.7, 18.2, 9/2, 12/1
Sopat - 7.7, 16.1, 6/1, 40/1

With Raynas world scoring second highest and at 12/1 with the bookies (v my odds of 9/2) I opted for this selection. Miranda ended up an impressive winner, with Raynas world, Irish Roe and Sopat who all scored highly in my pricing of the race finishing 25+ lengths behind.

2:40 Novice Hurdle
Shang Tang - 3.5, 4.5, 21/1, 10/1
Ashtown Lad - 6.4, 8.2, 11/1, 7/1
Ask A Honey Bee - 7.8, 10, 9/1, 9/2
Bobhopeornohope - 8.8, 11.2, 8/1, 6/1
Castle Robin - 6.4, 8.2, 11/1, 17/2
Emir Sacree - 6.6, 8.4, 11/1, 6/1
Exploituer - 6.8, 8.7, 11/1, 10/1
Fern Hill - 6.4, 8.2, 11/1, 9/1
Pats Fancy - 7.9, 10.1, 9/1, 5/1
Portstorm - 7.3, 9.3, 9/1, 33/1
The Cob - 6, 7.7, 12/1, 22/1
Took The Lot - 4.4, 5.6, 17/1, 40/1

Bobhopenohope was the selection as I thought his performances in higher class races would be the difference. Interestingly the fourth highest rated horse in the field, Portstorm had a massive race at 50/1 finishing 2nd to the equally game The Cob at 25/1. I suppose this is a good example of trusting the process and not trying to pick with the winner as such but spotting the horse with the best value. Especially with such wide open racing that was on display yesterday at Doncaster.

15:15 Mares Handicap Hurdle
Mr Malarkey - 8, 9.4, 10/1, 22/1
Aye Right - 6.7, 7.9, 12/1, 15/2
Give me a Copper - 8.4, 9.9, 9/1, 12/1
Canelo - 8.8, 10.4, 9/1, 6/1
Taking Risks - 8.2, 9.7, 9/1, 33/1
Rockys Treasure - 8.2, 9.7, 9/1, 33/1
One for the Team - 6.4, 7.6, 12/1, 11/2
Boldmere - 8, 9.4, 10/1, 7/1
The Butcher Said - 7.6, 9.0, 10/1, 20/1
Cap Du Nord - 7.7, 9.1, 10/1, 4/1
Musical Slave - 6.1, 7.2, 13/1, 9/2

With Rockys Treasue joint highest scoring horse offering considerable value I went EW on him (he got pulled up). But again, The fourth highest scoring horse who presented excellent value based on the above was the eventual winner, Taking Risks at 40/1.

Whilst it wasn’t my day yesterday, it certainly appears the base principles, based on objective analysis are having some success.
 

My only concern is that a lot of the scores appear to be very close. So I’m not sure if my scoring criteria needs to be adjusted?

[Wildgarden]

9 hours ago, Trotter said:

I wonder if that's just herd instinct at work ........ the AW tracks apart from Newcastle are tight with turns. I guess it could be the case that logic says you need to be drawn on the inside to get the advantage of the bends ....... so the horses drawn low get over-bet and the horses drawn high are relatively ignored

I know I'm guilty of this ...... any AW race I look at I tend to favour the low drawn horses ...... maybe everyone else does too !

 

There are many sites out there that day bet on inside horses so general public must go with this and this is good for us more interested in the game. Got trusty rusty last night 16-1 now 7-1... Outsider draw maybe punters are getting cleverer on the day lol

Edited January 31, 2021 by Wildgarden

[Villa Chris]

Just a quick one . If you had an horse that won off 136 in a class 3 and won well. It then goes up in ratings but doesn’t do well. Within 12 month he’s back on 136 but racing in a class 2. How would you lot look at this horse in terms of chances . Obviously in the class 2 he’d be carrying less weight but against better horses. Where as class 3 he’s carrying more weight against lesser horses .

Edited January 31, 2021 by Villa Chris

[Villa Chris]

22 minutes ago, Robb089 said:

Many thanks for the warm welcome fellas.

My method pretty much replicates the original concept described by Richard in earlier posts. My scoring is determined as follows;

Last Time Out (40%)
1st /2nd - 10pts
3rd/4th - 8 pts
5th/6th - 6 pts
7th/8th - 4 pts
9th + - 2 pts

Class [If not a handicap race] (15%)
Won above race class - 10pts
Won in race class - 8pts
Placed this class - 6pts
Won 1 class below - 4pts
Any other class win or place - 2 pts
 

Handicap [used for Hcps instead of class above] (15%)
Off current mark - 10pts
1lbs above last win - 8pts
2/3 lbs above last win - 6pts
4/5 lbs above last win - 4pts
6+ lbs above last win - 2 pts

Distance (15%)
Won dist - 10pts
Placed dist - 8pts
Won within 2f - 6pts
Placed within 2f - 4pts
No form 3f + - 2 pts

Ground (20%)
Won ground - 10pts
Placed placed - 8pts
Won near ground cond - 6pts
Placed near ground cond - 4pts
Ground not close - 2 pts

Course (10%)
Won - 10pts
Placed - 6pts
No form - 2pts

The above then gives me a horse score using Richards previous principles which we then convert in to a Horse % which is used to change into Odds based on the chart supplied by Brigadier.

I had a crack yesterday at 3 races at Doncaster, broken down as follows, Horse Score, Horse %, My Odds, Sky Bet Odds

2.05 Mares Chase
Floressa - 8.5, 17.8, 9/2, 2/1
Maries Rock - 6.5, 13.6, 6/1, 2/1
Irish Roe - 8.9, 18.6, 9/2, 11/1
Miranda - 7.5, 15.7, 6/1, 11/4
Raynas World - 8.7, 18.2, 9/2, 12/1
Sopat - 7.7, 16.1, 6/1, 40/1

With Raynas world scoring second highest and at 12/1 with the bookies (v my odds of 9/2) I opted for this selection. Miranda ended up an impressive winner, with Raynas world, Irish Roe and Sopat who all scored highly in my pricing of the race finishing 25+ lengths behind.

2:40 Novice Hurdle
Shang Tang - 3.5, 4.5, 21/1, 10/1
Ashtown Lad - 6.4, 8.2, 11/1, 7/1
Ask A Honey Bee - 7.8, 10, 9/1, 9/2
Bobhopeornohope - 8.8, 11.2, 8/1, 6/1
Castle Robin - 6.4, 8.2, 11/1, 17/2
Emir Sacree - 6.6, 8.4, 11/1, 6/1
Exploituer - 6.8, 8.7, 11/1, 10/1
Fern Hill - 6.4, 8.2, 11/1, 9/1
Pats Fancy - 7.9, 10.1, 9/1, 5/1
Portstorm - 7.3, 9.3, 9/1, 33/1
The Cob - 6, 7.7, 12/1, 22/1
Took The Lot - 4.4, 5.6, 17/1, 40/1

Bobhopenohope was the selection as I thought his performances in higher class races would be the difference. Interestingly the fourth highest rated horse in the field, Portstorm had a massive race at 50/1 finishing 2nd to the equally game The Cob at 25/1. I suppose this is a good example of trusting the process and not trying to pick with the winner as such but spotting the horse with the best value. Especially with such wide open racing that was on display yesterday at Doncaster.

15:15 Mares Handicap Hurdle
Mr Malarkey - 8, 9.4, 10/1, 22/1
Aye Right - 6.7, 7.9, 12/1, 15/2
Give me a Copper - 8.4, 9.9, 9/1, 12/1
Canelo - 8.8, 10.4, 9/1, 6/1
Taking Risks - 8.2, 9.7, 9/1, 33/1
Rockys Treasure - 8.2, 9.7, 9/1, 33/1
One for the Team - 6.4, 7.6, 12/1, 11/2
Boldmere - 8, 9.4, 10/1, 7/1
The Butcher Said - 7.6, 9.0, 10/1, 20/1
Cap Du Nord - 7.7, 9.1, 10/1, 4/1
Musical Slave - 6.1, 7.2, 13/1, 9/2

With Rockys Treasue joint highest scoring horse offering considerable value I went EW on him (he got pulled up). But again, The fourth highest scoring horse who presented excellent value based on the above was the eventual winner, Taking Risks at 40/1.

Whilst it wasn’t my day yesterday, it certainly appears the base principles, based on objective analysis are having some success.
 

My only concern is that a lot of the scores appear to be very close. So I’m not sure if my scoring criteria needs to be adjusted?

What are the two decimal point scores ? For example you had Taking Risks 8.2, 9.7. 
 

Not sure what the others are doing regarding their % for sections, but I’d say distance and going is more important than lto. My reasoning you may have a horse that won lto and won well, on G/S.  But today it’s running on Soft, which he hasn’t got much form on. Same with distance. He won well lto over 2m but is going up to 2.3 today . I’d say too much emphasis is being put on lto but that’s just how I see it. Your class section is pretty much identical to how I’m doing mine. Looking at your results you aren’t that far away . Taking risks was your 4th best rated, and at 40/1 could have quite easily been your value bet. I had Rockys Treasure up there, too, but was concerned about ground and big field. 

[Villa Chris]

Dublin racing festival next weekend . Great opportunity to rate some graded races pre Cheltenham. How many winners from that festival will go on to win at Cheltenham, although at a lower price than they currently are for Cheltenham.

[Wildgarden]

25 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Just a quick one . If you had an horse that won off 136 in a class 3 and won well. It then goes up in ratings but doesn’t do well. Within 12 month he’s back on 136 but racing in a class 2. How would you lot look at this horse in terms of chances . Obviously in the class 2 he’d be carrying less weight but against better horses. Where as class 3 he’s carrying more weight against lesser horses .

See if his or her pace has improved in that time perhaps? 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Wildgarden

[Villa Chris]

21 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

See if his or her pace has improved in that time perhaps? 

Good point. What could I get that information from . I rarely look at speed figures. 

[Robb089]

36 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

What are the two decimal point scores ? For example you had Taking Risks 8.2, 9.7. 
 

Not sure what the others are doing regarding their % for sections, but I’d say distance and going is more important than lto. My reasoning you may have a horse that won lto and won well, on G/S.  But today it’s running on Soft, which he hasn’t got much form on. Same with distance. He won well lto over 2m but is going up to 2.3 today . I’d say too much emphasis is being put on lto but that’s just how I see it. Your class section is pretty much identical to how I’m doing mine. Looking at your results you aren’t that far away . Taking risks was your 4th best rated, and at 40/1 could have quite easily been your value bet. I had Rockys Treasure up there, too, but was concerned about ground and big field. 

The first figure is the score, derived from the 5 categories with their % split.

The second figure is the horse %. I use the horses score  (first figure) and divide this by the total score of all the horses. This % is then used to see what their odds are from Brigadiers sheet so a comparison can be made if we’re getting value against the bookmakers.

I probably sway toward your logic on the LTO, but thought I’d stick with Richards original splits to see how I faired. Likewise, I think Distance and Going are probably more significant than LTO. My biggest doubt with it, is that if you have horse who wins 18 months ago at 150, but has had stinking form since (might of been running wrong distance, ground etc), it does t change the fact that it’s a 150 rated winner. So as long as it’s still running it will always have the potential to repeat that run. I’m always on the look out for horses competing in lower grades or handicaps that are running off a much lower mark than their biggest career win as there’s always that chance!

I think I need to do what you have summarised there with Rockys Treasure. Objectively yes, the scoring is saying he’s there abouts. But a bit more reading and subjective judgment and I probably would of come to the same conclusion that the ground and previous big field performance would have had a negative impact on these figures.

[Wildgarden]

4 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Good point. What could I get that information from . I rarely look at speed figures. 

Racing post 

[Villa Chris]

Just jotted down a few things for graded races. Not overly different to how I’d do handicap races. What I would say though is that having won a grade 1 or 2 race should feature high in your %. The distance , they tend to usually run at the same distance the grade 1 horses do. Going? Some don’t like the going heavy but other than that I’d say all of them can run well on soft . I’ve also put my course form up to 10% from 5% for handicaps, as these beasts I find do have a preference for courses. 

[richard-westwood]

I'm using currently.....last time out form figure .....form rating .....distance ....going ....hcap ......I dropped the course as I can check that myself after .....likewise class I check after 

[Alley Cat Glover]

1 hour ago, Robb089 said:

I had a crack yesterday at 3 races at Doncaster, broken down as follows, Horse Score, Horse %, My Odds, Sky Bet Odds

2.05 Mares Chase
Floressa - 8.5, 17.8, 9/2, 2/1
Maries Rock - 6.5, 13.6, 6/1, 2/1
Irish Roe - 8.9, 18.6, 9/2, 11/1
Miranda - 7.5, 15.7, 6/1, 11/4
Raynas World - 8.7, 18.2, 9/2, 12/1
Sopat - 7.7, 16.1, 6/1, 40/1

 

13 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Just jotted down a few things for graded races. Not overly different to how I’d do handicap races. What I would say though is that having won a grade 1 or 2 race should feature high in your %. The distance , they tend to usually run at the same distance the grade 1 horses do. Going? Some don’t like the going heavy but other than that I’d say all of them can run well on soft . I’ve also put my course form up to 10% from 5% for handicaps, as these beasts I find do have a preference for courses. 

How do you allow for a horse on the upgrade with these breakdowns, taking Miranda as an example. She had not run in that class of race before, had not run at that track before, but was joint highest on ratings, and getting 4lbs as part of the conditions, her last race at Mussleborough, she finished 4th but if you watched it, in another 100yrds or with a better ride/path she would have won that race and instead of being on 143 she would have probably been rated 150 as I expect her to be now. Not sure how the handicapper will view it beating the right horse in receipt of 4lb might get away with a smaller rise, if only Harry had looked harder at work!

[Villa Chris]

13 minutes ago, Robb089 said:

The first figure is the score, derived from the 5 categories with their % split.

The second figure is the horse %. I use the horses score  (first figure) and divide this by the total score of all the horses. This % is then used to see what their odds are from Brigadiers sheet so a comparison can be made if we’re getting value against the bookmakers.

I probably sway toward your logic on the LTO, but thought I’d stick with Richards original splits to see how I faired. Likewise, I think Distance and Going are probably more significant than LTO. My biggest doubt with it, is that if you have horse who wins 18 months ago at 150, but has had stinking form since (might of been running wrong distance, ground etc), it does t change the fact that it’s a 150 rated winner. So as long as it’s still running it will always have the potential to repeat that run. I’m always on the look out for horses competing in lower grades or handicaps that are running off a much lower mark than their biggest career win as there’s always that chance!

I think I need to do what you have summarised there with Rockys Treasure. Objectively yes, the scoring is saying he’s there abouts. But a bit more reading and subjective judgment and I probably would of come to the same conclusion that the ground and previous big field performance would have had a negative impact on these figures.

A horse running in a lesser race than it’s won in past off a lower mark than its prime will score pretty high in my ratings. Obviously you have to take into account the horse might be getting older so is losing some ability, but just looking at its previous form could indicate it’s coming to the boil again, all be it off a lower mark than in its prime . I did a race in Ireland in the week and ended up with Balko Des Flos top rated. It’s the race which Allaho won and I had him down the ratings quite low. Ended up adjusting Balko Des Flos using some judgement and he ended up 4th best rated in a 6 horse race. This is a horse that won a RyanAir at Cheltenham 3 year ago and had scored some high RPRs, but just couldn’t leave him top rated because he’d done very little since that festival win. 
 

Regarding field size, not sure it would be worth using it as one of your sections but I think you can use judgement regarding it. Rockys Treasure although scored high in ratings had a lot going against him yesterday and it showed. 

[Villa Chris]

9 minutes ago, Alley Cat Glover said:

 

How do you allow for a horse on the upgrade with these breakdowns, taking Miranda as an example. She had not run in that class of race before, had not run at that track before, but was joint highest on ratings, and getting 4lbs as part of the conditions, her last race at Mussleborough, she finished 4th but if you watched it, in another 100yrds or with a better ride/path she would have won that race and instead of being on 143 she would have probably been rated 150 as I expect her to be now. Not sure how the handicapper will view it beating the right horse in receipt of 4lb might get away with a smaller rise, if only Harry had looked harder at work!

I usually only go on what’s Infront of me. For that reason alone Miranda wouldn’t have been my top rated although she may have rated in top 3/4. I think doing your own ratings is far from bulletproof. You’ll never be able to take into account everything but the game is you gain an advantage where you can make profit long term.  Back to Miranda, I’d say watching previous race and reading write ups could give you an edge regarding future ability of how good a horse is/could be.  Course form I have quite low regarding giving points to an horse, so the fact she hadn’t run there before would not have damaged her overall score too much .

Edited January 31, 2021 by Villa Chris

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, Wildgarden said:

There are many sites out there that day bet on inside horses so general public must go with this and this is good for us more interested in the game. Got trusty rusty last night 16-1 now 7-1... Outsider draw maybe punters are getting cleverer on the day lol

You are correct, to make money in this game you have to go against the crowd to a certain extent.. There is a lot of logic in supporting horses drawn low but if the majority of punters follow the same logic then these horses are likely to be over-bet. I always used to use logic in my systems but never made any money, now I just follow the AE stats (assuming the sample size is large enough).  

[Villa Chris]

@Alley Cat Glover

Irish Roe 7.8

Miranda 7.35

I’d have had Miranda second rated. Not sure about value as don’t know what odds were. 

[Robb089]

23 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

A horse running in a lesser race than it’s won in past off a lower mark than its prime will score pretty high in my ratings. Obviously you have to take into account the horse might be getting older so is losing some ability, but just looking at its previous form could indicate it’s coming to the boil again, all be it off a lower mark than in its prime . I did a race in Ireland in the week and ended up with Balko Des Flos top rated. It’s the race which Allaho won and I had him down the ratings quite low. Ended up adjusting Balko Des Flos using some judgement and he ended up 4th best rated in a 6 horse race. This is a horse that won a RyanAir at Cheltenham 3 year ago and had scored some high RPRs, but just couldn’t leave him top rated because he’d done very little since that festival win. 
 

Regarding field size, not sure it would be worth using it as one of your sections but I think you can use judgement regarding it. Rockys Treasure although scored high in ratings had a lot going against him yesterday and it showed. 

I think this surmises where I’m slightly amiss in that I’m probably expecting the sheet to pick the winner for me. Rather using it a steer to make my own judgement based on other underling factors.

Do you add / remove points based on the further factors of judgement? For example with Balko Des Flo. Say he’d scored a 10, did you just think I’ll knock 2 points off based on recent form?

I remember that Ryanair chase well. I’d put £100 on the nose of Un De Sceaux (who wasn’t even a good price) after getting getting confident because Shattered Love had won me a decent returnin the JLT. Most gut wrenching feeling watching him go backwards with about 3 to take. Group of Irish lads we were chatting too had lumped big on Balko, and from memory he wasn’t far off double figure odds!

[Alley Cat Glover]

29 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

I usually only go on what’s Infront of me. For that reason alone Miranda wouldn’t have been my top rated although she may have rated in top 3/4.

Would hope so there was only 6 in the race and one of those I put a line through without studying anything else about it! ?. I guess the point I was making is none of the calculations make any allowance for distance beaten or looking at last runs and awarding bonus points, but do you do that from your own ratings before using Richards method or do you try and pick winner and then apply Richards ratings. It seems to me that finding winners is value in itself 5/2 winner is better than a 6/1 loser as the old adage goes. Finding big priced winners is excellent and have enjoyed following this thread and trying to do my own thing, might have to post some shortly after all got to prove things. I only used to bet 1 horse in a race but find picking 2 has several benefits. Including taking risks yesterday. Quite often do the 10p eachway trebles, picking 2 in each race only costs £1.60 and gives me a way of tracking what I do.

[Alley Cat Glover]

Just seen your post Chris, Miranda was 11/4, Irish Roe was I believe double figures just about.

[Robb089]

34 minutes ago, Alley Cat Glover said:

 

How do you allow for a horse on the upgrade with these breakdowns, taking Miranda as an example. She had not run in that class of race before, had not run at that track before, but was joint highest on ratings, and getting 4lbs as part of the conditions, her last race at Mussleborough, she finished 4th but if you watched it, in another 100yrds or with a better ride/path she would have won that race and instead of being on 143 she would have probably been rated 150 as I expect her to be now. Not sure how the handicapper will view it beating the right horse in receipt of 4lb might get away with a smaller rise, if only Harry had looked harder at work!

I’d probably echo Villa Chris’s comments with this. The process is based on objective stats from passed runs. Any improvers , especially younger horses, aren’t necessarily going to have stats in the form book to rely on.

If you look at my ratings, which was based purely on the form book, I had Miranda 4th best of a 6 horse race.

If I’d of gone that extra yard to of watched her previous race, and made the logical adjustment to rating like you did then my thought process probably may have been different. 

[Villa Chris]

12 minutes ago, Robb089 said:

I think this surmises where I’m slightly amiss in that I’m probably expecting the sheet to pick the winner for me. Rather using it a steer to make my own judgement based on other underling factors.

Do you add / remove points based on the further factors of judgement? For example with Balko Des Flo. Say he’d scored a 10, did you just think I’ll knock 2 points off based on recent form?

I remember that Ryanair chase well. I’d put £100 on the nose of Un De Sceaux (who wasn’t even a good price) after getting getting confident because Shattered Love had won me a decent returnin the JLT. Most gut wrenching feeling watching him go backwards with about 3 to take. Group of Irish lads we were chatting too had lumped big on Balko, and from memory he wasn’t far off double figure odds!

He scored 8.05 originally but using my view on where he’s at now looking at form I got him down to 6.85. Remember this was an horse who beat Un De Sceaux as you remember and was then being touted for the gold cup . He’s gone backwards since, but the drop down in trip may have relighted the fire. I had him down as 4th rated and that’s where he finished.