Racing Chat- Wednesday 2nd December

[Villa Chris]

Decent little class 2 handicap hurdles at Ludlow tomorrow. Miranda comes out top of the ratings. 5/2 currently but I’m going to wait and see if she drifts to 4/1 which the forecast is expecting her to do. 

[The Brigadier]

Very interesting runner in Kempton's 7.00 tomorrow evening. I was at the track at this meeting a year ago as a share holder with Canter Banter Racing whom own Nicky Henderson's Torolight. He ran a blinder to finish runner up to a very easy winner of  Charlie Fellows' called LORD HALIFAX who ran away with the race by 5 lengths. At the time we thought we had just bumped into a horse that was way ahead of his handicap mark and I vowed to back him until he was beaten. He's been a major disappointment since but now returns to the scene of his easy win having fallen to the identical handicap mark of that foggy night  plus has had a recent wind operation.

He looks a good each way bet to me especially with the firms paying an extra place.

LORD HALIFAX 1 point each way @ 4/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 1-2-3-4

 

[Trotter]

Hollie Doyle has been shortlisted for the BBC Sports Personality of the Year alongside Lewis Hamilton, Stuart Broad, Jordan Henderson plus two more to be named later

 

[The Brigadier]

6 minutes ago, Trotter said:

Hollie Doyle has been shortlisted for the BBC Sports Personality of the Year alongside Lewis Hamilton, Stuart Broad, Jordan Henderson plus two more to be named later

 

Yes that's fabulous news for our great sport,isn't it? If the public didn't know who she was before this they certainly will now. ??

[ipswich45]

Happy Valley selections tomorrow

1115  - 1 Methane
1145  - 9 Treasure Chest
1215  - 11 Flying Monkey
1245  - 9 Shining On
1315  - 8 Spicy So Good
1345  - 6 We The South
1415  - 3 Blastoise
1450  - 7 Le Terrior

[alancraik]

todays selections


HAYDOCK 14:55 Minella Charmer 15/2 e/w 3 Places

KEMPTON 18:00 Soldiers Minute 7/2 win

KEMPTON 18:30 Johnny Drama 13/8 win

plus e/w trixie

[Wildgarden]

1255 Ludlow secret court 9.2 win 3.0 place Betfair exchange

Unseated lto after few half decent attempts two previous. System pick which is 200% profitable too.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

All prices Bet365:

11.30 Lingfield - 1pt e/w King Athelstan @ 13/2

12.10 Haydock - 1pt e/w Strike West @ 10/1

12.35 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Abstinence @ 8/1

12.55 Ludlow - 1pt e/w Astra Via @ 16/1

2.10 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Almost An Angel @ 22/1

2.55 Haydock - 1pt e/w Better Getalong @ 20/1

[Trotter]

Anyone know what's going on with the 12 o'clock at Lingfield ........ 45 minutes on and none of the sites have the 'Fast Result' up yet !

[DanV89]

6 minutes ago, Trotter said:

Anyone know what's going on with the 12 o'clock at Lingfield ........ 45 minutes on and none of the sites have the 'Fast Result' up yet !

Apparently there’s a communication issue where firms aren’t receiving data from the Press Association so there’s a delay in the results and the settlement of them. 

Edited December 2, 2020 by DanV89

[Wildgarden]

2 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

1255 Ludlow secret court 9.2 win 3.0 place Betfair exchange

Unseated lto after few half decent attempts two previous. System pick which is 200% profitable too.

Looked the winner till again seated near the end ?

[Trotter]

11 minutes ago, DanV89 said:

Apparently there’s a communication issue where firms aren’t receiving data from the Press Association so there’s a delay in the results and the settlement of them. 

thanks Dan

... seems to be back up to date now!

[Villa Chris]

Don’t look like I’m going to get my 4/1 for Miranda . 10/3 was as far as it went and now she’s into 11/4. May have to sit this one out . 

[MCLARKE]

Nicky Henderson's first December runner won yesterday so I'll stick with him today at Ludlow.

2.35 FOLLOW THE BEAR 8/1

3.45 MEADOWSWEET 13/2

[Villa Chris]

Miranda wins at 3/1. Typical as it would have broke a bit of a losing run, but never mind. 

[The Brigadier]

20 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Decent little class 2 handicap hurdles at Ludlow tomorrow. Miranda comes out top of the ratings. 5/2 currently but I’m going to wait and see if she drifts to 4/1 which the forecast is expecting her to do. 

Top stuff Chris, I hope you held out for the 3/1 !

[The Brigadier]

Just now, The Brigadier said:

Top stuff Chris, I hope you held out for the 3/1 !

aaah reading further down that maybe a sore point with you  - ouch

[The Brigadier]

4 hours ago, alancraik said:

todays selections


HAYDOCK 14:55 Minella Charmer 15/2 e/w 3 Places

KEMPTON 18:00 Soldiers Minute 7/2 win

KEMPTON 18:30 Johnny Drama 13/8 win

plus e/w trixie

like Soldiers Minute, this is his course

[The Equaliser]

4 hours ago, alancraik said:

todays selections


HAYDOCK 14:55 Minella Charmer 15/2 e/w 3 Places

KEMPTON 18:00 Soldiers Minute 7/2 win

KEMPTON 18:30 Johnny Drama 13/8 win

plus e/w trixie

Very best wishes for today, you thoroughly deserve a change of luck

 

[Villa Chris]

1 minute ago, The Brigadier said:

Top stuff Chris, I hope you held out for the 3/1 !

Missed out on it. When I last looked she was 11/4, but had been 10/3 at some point. Been at work so didn’t have time to keep too much of a close eye on the odds.  

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, Villa Chris said:

Miranda wins at 3/1. Typical as it would have broke a bit of a losing run, but never mind. 

 

3 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Very best wishes for today, you thoroughly deserve a change of luck

 

So sorry Chris; maybe you would have got 4/1 on the Betfair Exchange.  Also, I sometimes set a price in running on the Exchange to secure a better price and, if it gets matched early on then that's fine.  If not I cancel the bet.  Just a thought

 

[Villa Chris]

3 minutes ago, The Brigadier said:

aaah reading further down that maybe a sore point with you  - ouch

I had her down as 4/1 in terms of what her odds should have been. Whether I should have taken lesser odds is another story.  Hopefully in the long run it pays off, but I’m new to this waiting around for a horse to get to certain odds before backing it. Usually I’d just back my selection but I’m trying to find value in my bets along with trying to do ratings. 

[Villa Chris]

8 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

 

So sorry Chris; maybe you would have got 4/1 on the Betfair Exchange.  Also, I sometimes set a price in running on the Exchange to secure a better price and, if it gets matched early on then that's fine.  If not I cancel the bet.  Just a thought

 

Bit annoyed with myself but not been in great form lately so maybe it was a confidence thing too.  Put the selection in the nap of the day, so at least I’m off the mark for the month in that .

Edited December 2, 2020 by Villa Chris

[The Equaliser]

Not much doing today.  Prices too short for my liking.

Will have a double tonight at Kempton

7.00 Lord Halifax £2 win at 9/2
8.00 Mr Mac £2 win at 4/1

One £2 win double = Poss return of £55

Total stakes = £6

============================================================================================================

One second and one third.  No use to me. Did learn that I do need to take account of my favourite top jockeys and top yards when deciding on a bet using the top ratings.  Though, I have no idea how Fly The Nest ridden by Tom Marquand became a 6/4 favourite in the 8pm at Kempton.  

Multiples loss = £2 bal c/fwd £604.04 (Bank £800) Top rated mulltiples = £2 loss, cumulative balance = -£19.65

Singles loss = £4 and the balance c/fwd is £141.68 (Bank £400)

Three jumps meetings and one all weather meeting tomorrow; don't know if any of them will have crowds attending again. 

 

Edited December 3, 2020 by The Equaliser
Results Update

[Wildgarden]

2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Nicky Henderson's first December runner won yesterday so I'll stick with him today at Ludlow.

2.35 FOLLOW THE BEAR 8/1

3.45 MEADOWSWEET 13/2

Well done lovely ride there, bear needs more work or shorter trip.

Edited December 2, 2020 by Wildgarden

[Wildgarden]

All Betfair sp kempton

6pm kempton premier power win

7pm lord halifax win

730pm cemhaan win

8pm conferie win place

830pm calins lad win place

 

 

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, Wildgarden said:

Well done lovely ride there, bear needs more work or shorter trip.

Thank you. Both horses shortened considerably, if I can do that consistently I'll be ok.

[alancraik]

8 hours ago, alancraik said:

todays selections


HAYDOCK 14:55 Minella Charmer 15/2 e/w 3 Places n/r

KEMPTON 18:00 Soldiers Minute 7/2 win  up

KEMPTON 18:30 Johnny Drama 13/8 win 1 st

plus e/w trixie

a small profit today

update on the test started 1 st June

Bets - 623
Wins - 207
Lose - 402
ROI - 20.95%

wins include e/w places

I have not included winnings from multis

I will end the test February 2021 or at 1000 bets

[Valiant Thor]

4 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

I had her down as 4/1 in terms of what her odds should have been. Whether I should have taken lesser odds is another story.  Hopefully in the long run it pays off, but I’m new to this waiting around for a horse to get to certain odds before backing it. Usually I’d just back my selection but I’m trying to find value in my bets along with trying to do ratings. 

I wouldnt worry about it too much if I were you, I know people who cant even price up a £5 note, never mind a horse-race despite 20+ years of trying.
I had it priced @ 9/4 and even using a cheap and nasty method using RPR's (below) it was a  5/2 shot, so I thought you were a bit OTT looking for 4/1 but practice makes perfect. ?

(anyone with basic stats should be able to work the above out and how I came about it)

4 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Bit annoyed with myself but not been in great form lately so maybe it was a confidence thing too.  Put the selection in the nap of the day, so at least I’m off the mark for the month in that .

If you want to do what you say you want to do dont get disheartened if things dont work out straight away, & dont do what 99% do and take the easy way out and throw the towel in after a few week and go back to knee jerk selections.
The more work you put in the better you'll get its not an overnight project
This is regarded as the BIBLE OF FORECASTING I bought it many moons ago and is an excellent book quite expensive now but if you can get hold of one cheaply its highly recommended , plus bin the pen and pad crap , sort yourself out and get excel its soon to be 2021 you know ?
ATB
VT

Edited December 2, 2020 by Valiant Thor

[Villa Chris]

10 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:

I wouldnt worry about it too much if I were you, I know people who cant even price up a £5 note, never mind a horse-race despite 20+ years of trying.
I had it priced @ 9/4 and even using a cheap and nasty method using RPR's (below) it was a  5/2 shot, so I thought you were a bit OTT looking for 4/1 but practice makes perfect. ?

(anyone with basic stats should be able to work the above out and how I came about it)

If you want to do what you say you want to do dont get disheartened if things dont work out straight away, & dont do what 99% do and take the easy way out and throw the towel in after a few week and go back to knee jerk selections.
The more work you put in the better you'll get its not an overnight project
This is regarded as the BIBLE OF FORECASTING I bought it many moons ago and is an excellent book quite expensive now but if you can get hold of one cheaply its highly recommended , plus bin the pen and pad crap , sort yourself out and get excel its soon to be 2021 you know ?
ATB
VT

That’s the thing I’m doing my own prices but I don’t fully trust that they are accurate, because I’m not sure if my ratings are any good. Obviously time will tell. I’ll stick with it and overtime I’ll hopefully see where I’m going wrong because there’s plenty of room for improvement where I’m concerned.  Cheers for the book recommendation, I’ll look it up, and yes I know I need to move with the times ?