Racing Chat- Wednesday 2nd December

[MCLARKE]

16 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:

(anyone with basic stats should be able to work the above out and how I came about it)

I think your definition of basic stats and others definition might be a bit different !

You are right though, the more work you pit in the better you will get. I've been doing this 40 years but still learning and improving.

I still can't price a race though.

 

[Valiant Thor]

43 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I think your definition of basic stats and others definition might be a bit different !

You are right though, the more work you pit in the better you will get. I've been doing this 40 years but still learning and improving.

I still can't price a race though.

 

I think your confusing basic maths with basic stats totally different

[Wildgarden]

4 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

All Betfair sp kempton

6pm kempton premier power win 2nd 1.76

7pm lord halifax win 2nd 4.52

730pm cemhaan win 8th 5.01

8pm conferie win place 5th 8.6 2.42

830pm calins lad win place won 6.9  /2.3

Small profit on tonight's from lucky last with some.close 2nds that ran out of steam

 

 

[MCLARKE]

2 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

This is regarded as the BIBLE OF FORECASTING

I've put it on my Xmas list from the kids, don't think they'll be so keen when they see the price on Amazon.

[Trotter]

2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I still can't price a race though.

 

A quick way which I used when I looked at lots of races ........ 

Look at the runners in your race and just put them in order of preference ....... so your first choice is 1 and your second choice is 2 etc

Then take a reputable site like the Racing Post and look at their forecast odds and put the odds for their favourite against your number one, the odds for their second favourite against your number 2 and so on

So you're using the 'expert' odds compiler to give you the overall shape of the market but substituting his order of market position for your order

take an example ......... if your number 1 is 4th in the forecast at 7/1 and you can get 7/1 then it's probably good value if your assessment that it's number one is correct

if the odds compiler has a horse as 2/1 Fav and you have 4th on your list it's probably bad value

 

[MCLARKE]

Thanks.

I have tried this but my "value" bets never quite turn out to be value after all. I'll have another bash at it, the problem could be that my ratings only include certain variables whilst the odds compiler will include all variables.

 

[Villa Chris]

Obviously the more horses in a race the less % your selection has of winning, that’s if you rate up all the horses in the race. Wouldn’t it be more accurate to get rid of the horses that you think have little to no chance of winning.  Would that give you more accurate odds for the horses that are left in the race? Some races are competitive where all have their merits, but there are races where some horses are literally just making the numbers up. 

[Valiant Thor]

2 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Obviously the more horses in a race the less % your selection has of winning, that’s if you rate up all the horses in the race. Wouldn’t it be more accurate to get rid of the horses that you think have little to no chance of winning.  

Some races are competitive where all have their merits, but there are races where some horses are literally just making the numbers up. 

All horses have some chance of winning  however slight it may be,by omitting some horses you would create a false market
The no hoper could be the faller that brings the fav down.

Quote

Would that give you more accurate odds for the horses that are left in the race?

In a word ...NO

[Valiant Thor]

13 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I've put it on my Xmas list from the kids, don't think they'll be so keen when they see the price on Amazon.

I don't know what's in the updated version , but the version I had recommended Lotus 1-2-3 for the spreadsheets

[MCLARKE]

Fond memories of Lotus123, it was so much easier to write macros. It took a while to convince me to move to windows and excel.

[Villa Chris]

3 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

All horses have some chance of winning  however slight it may be,by omitting some horses you would create a false market
The no hoper could be the faller that brings the fav down.

In a word ...NO

Just an idea I had that’s all. 

[Villa Chris]

What’s the craic with Excel etc . How does it work regarding horse racing . 

[Valiant Thor]

2 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

What’s the craic with Excel etc . How does it work regarding horse racing . 

just stores all your data ,
has data analysis built in
can do graphs etc etc

[MCLARKE]

It is ideal for analysing a lot of data. My current NH data includes details for 200,000 runs over the last 7 years. From this you can identify what factors are profitable.

For example I can analyse by days last run and this shows that horses that last run 7 days ago or less have produced 671 winners from 4,422 runners and produced a ROI of 6%.

You wouldn't be able to get this sort of information data from pen and paper.

 

[Villa Chris]

Sounds complicated. Do you have to type everything into the computer in order for it to save all the data. I’ll use Richard as an example here, but how does he get his ratings from the computer. I have to go through each race and want to rate and it takes me half hour. I can imagine the computer does it in seconds . 

[MCLARKE]

2 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Do you have to type everything into the computer in order for it to save all the data

I used to type al the data from the Racing Post. These days I download it all off the web. It does cost to do this but probably less than the cost of a racing paper.

[MCLARKE]

On 12/2/2020 at 6:46 PM, alancraik said:

a small profit today

update on the test started 1 st June

Bets - 623
Wins - 207
Lose - 402
ROI - 20.95%

Excellent figures Alan.

What is the logic behind the test ?