Australian Open 2020

[darko08]

@money44 I was just kidding ?. 6-2, 6-1. There was no match

Yep, that bet was so good, Thiem destroying Monfils

[Grass Cash]

And if you don't know what cakewalks are to people outside of the states or wherever.. You actually walk around in a circle, and whichever spot you end up in.. You get a freshly baked nice cake, and literally everyone gets a cake. Can't lose on this game. 

[darko08]

Sofia Kenin (-3,5 Games) to beat Ons Jabeur at 1.81 with 888

After so many matches won by Jabeur as the underdog I think Kenin will be too much for her. She has won against so many big names (Konta, Garcia, Wozniacki and Qiang Wang) but none of them came here in good form. Kenin had 2 easy first rounds but her 2 last matches were against dangerous players. Shuai Zhang was playing really well (Final in Hobart and 2 wins here against Stephens and Mcnally) but Kenin won against her in 2 tight sets (7-5, 7-6). After that match she destroyed Gauff (6-7, 6-3, 6-0). This will be a very nice match to watch. Both players had a lot of variety but I see Kenin more solid from the baseline and Jabeur is more likely to fall in a spiral of errors against players like Kenin.

Garbiñe Muguruza to win the AO at 7.00 with bet365

Muguruza has already won against Kiki Bertens in straight sets. In QF she will play against the winner of the Kerber-Pavlyuchenkova match. Considering how Muguruza has been playing here she is the right favorite to win any of these 2 players (she’s playing better than any of them and she also dominates the h2h against them, especially against Pavlyuchenkova). In SF she will play against the winner of the Halep-Kontaveit match. Halep came here with a lot of doubts but after a scary first set in her first match here against Brady she has won all her matches without problems. Halep still has not played against a big hitters like Muguruza (well, Brady did trouble her in the first set) and the 3 times Halep and Muguruza have played in hard courts Muguruza have won all of them. If Kontaveit won against Halep it will be better for Muguruza because she prefers playing against hitters like her. I don’t know what to expect from Kontaveit. She has destroyed Bencic but she also had a hard match against Swiatek and dropped a set against the weak Sara Sorribes. Anyway, I think Halep will win against Kontaveit so…
The Final will be against Barty, Kvitova, Kenin or Jabeur.

Edited January 27, 2020 by darko08

[Grass Cash]

36 minutes ago, darko08 said:

Sofia Kenin (-3,5 Games) to beat Ons Jabeur at 1.81 with 888

After so many matches won by Jabeur as the underdog I think Kenin will be too much for her. She has won against so many big names (Konta, Garcia, Wozniacki and Qiang Wang) but none of them came here in good form. Kenin had 2 easy first rounds but her 2 last matches were against dangerous players. Shuai Zhang was playing really well (Final in Hobart and 2 wins here against Stephens and Mcnally) but Kenin won against her in 2 tight sets (7-5, 7-6). After that match she destroyed Gauff (6-7, 6-3, 6-0). This will be a very nice match to watch. Both players had a lot of variety but I see Kenin more solid from the baseline and Jabeur is more likely to fall in a spiral of errors against players like Kenin.

I think you've got solid analysis on this one Darko... I personally think there is value on Jabeur.. Also, if you're taking this type of bet... I would think it becomes more relevant @ odds around 2.0 for a best of three set match vs an in form player with heavy motivation. Wang really dropped the ball in the Jabeur match, and she could have easily taken control of the match winning the first set without some very bad return errors. A person would have to believe that Kenin will not allow this to happen because her competitive drive is tops on the tour right now. Nonetheless we'll see how it plays out.. Ohh and btw... I had marked Muguruza and Angelique Kerber in the semi-finals or Pav/Bertens.. I saw it one of those two groupings.. It's something that works for me... Anyways, I know have increased confidence on a Kerber victory, and the match will not be starting to well into the evening which i mentioned is good for Kerber because Pavlychenkova will not be able to simply overpower her with serves and flat ground strokes. 

[Grass Cash]

You'll need to be over 60% confident that Jabeur doesn't cover than handicap, and that is at the bare minimum.. Jabeur is really surprising people right now, and she will test Kenin's movement with alot of drop shots.. I think Jabeur is a very live underdog in the match and I've got it close 40/60 chance for her without the games handi. 

The Muguruza pick looks interesting.. She's on of the top fillies available to bet.. I am tempted to try that one.. Maybe I'll pop a few on it when the odds become available, and if she does face one of those players in the finals.. I might take her as a slight favorite over Kvitova to win, and all other three players she should be able to beat. Barty could be tricky in Australia, but still I'd have to go with Garbine there. 

Edited January 27, 2020 by money44

[CzechPunter]

Yeah, looks like I'm not getting any breaks this month guys. Sorry for that.

[Grass Cash]

all good .. you'll figure it out 

[darko08]

[darko08]

My last bet for the next 2 days (and maybe of the tournament).

Babos/Mladenovic (-1,5 Sets) to beat Gauff/Mcnally at 1.83 with bet365

After going with Gauff/Mcnally in their last two rounds I’m going to bet against them in this one. Babos/Mladenovic won the title here in 2018 and they also reached the Final in 2019 (losing it against Zhang/Stosur). They have won all their matches in straight sets (Olaru/Jakupovic, Gorges/Barty and Kuzmova/Sasnovich). Gauff/Mcnally almost lost today against Aoyama/Shibahara (they were 1 set down and 1 break down in the second set but they finally won the match). Even with Aoyama playing a bad match (she was losing a lot of points from the baseline and her serve was so weak) the young pair had a hard match so I can’t imagine them winning against one of the best pairs of the world.

[bet4fun]

My first pick on this forum.

 

Garbine Muguruza to win Australian open at 6.5 with betway, stake:10 units

Two reasons why this can happen. looking at the quarter finalist lineup. 3 girls are odd man out and dont have the finishing skills(Kenin, Paylucheknova, Jabeur). Out of barty and kvitova one will be gone. So that leaves us with Garbine and Halep. If she outplays Halep she will be a dark horse given the fact that barty has been too reckless in the beginning matches. Kvitova had 2 narrow escapes already

 

[CzechPunter]

Hi and welcome to the forum @bet4fun .

[bet4fun]

sorry guys for the stupid question. where do you guys watch tennis matches online. there was one russian or european site which used to stream matches and they used to cover all sports but that site is down for 1.5 yrs now. I used to watch on bet365 but that is not working for me in India now. maybe some issue with my account or they dont do live feed. so if you guys can give me some links much appreciated

[bet4fun]

7 match points and last time an american beat roger was in 2002. what a player

[CzechPunter]

Grand Slams have decent TV coverage where I live. Otherwise Tennis TV is a good choice if you want HD streams that are completely reliable.

[CzechPunter]

Also, Barty .

[darko08]

1 minute ago, CzechPunter said:

Also, Barty .

What happens with Barty?

[CzechPunter]

Well, she got the quarter bet in for me, so at least something positive.

11 minutes ago, darko08 said:

What happens with Barty?

 

[Toptipsters]

No other topic is opened for this week so I post it here:

WTA Newport
Quinn Gleason - Marie Benoit [email protected] pinnacle /flat 10u/

I know odds little dropped, but still great value for me.

Benoit WTA  290 is a belgian player, who is in 3rd hundred for last three years, but I like her tennis more than her rank is. She is best on clay, but her career record on hard is solid 65W-43L  After ITF25 title in Daytona, she lost last week in first round with clay specialist Maristany and should be well prepared for Newport. 

Gleason WTA 390 is universal player on all surfaces. She has negative bilance on both hard and clay and have to say on one class lower level than Marie. On hard she is 22W-24L. She played Daytona as well (Benoit won there) and lost in 1st round. I was watching her yesterday in qualies, and she played really nothing. Manasse made tons of unforced errors and was lmitted in movement as she got medical timeout and taped her leg during 2nd set.

Benoit will not give easy points to Gleason, she will be much better from the baseline and she will punish Gleasons weak scond serv, which is really so slow. Nice value for me. I see big diffrence between the players, eventhough Benoit played only one hardcourt event last year. GL

[Toptipsters]

No other topic is opened for this week so I post it here. Admin: If I should open a new topic, just write me a line. thnx

WTA Newport
Mayo Hibi - Tereza Mrdeza [email protected] pinnacle /flat 10u/

Lower odds but this one should be easy. Will keep it shorter, many matches to study in new week. Hibi is tough player with unorthodox game style, great movement, great defence but she can bite time to time. She won last ITF of 2019 in Vegas against good players and played also solid in AO qualies.

Mrdeza is coming off unsuccesfull final in Vero last week. This one was played on clay and it was raining there for first three days, so Tereza spent more than 7 hours on court from friday to sunday as they played more than one match a day. Moreover she is pure claycourter. 

Simply cant see Hibi loosing here. Reasons manetioned above and I see her as huge fav here. GL

[CzechPunter]

No, we'll keep this week in this thread altogether, I'm going to get a new one open for the next one.

[CzechPunter]

Simona Halep to beat Anett Kontaveit at 1.42 with Pinnacle

Another day another Halep for me, pretty much for the same reasons. She's usually a different beast during the second week of Slams and she certainly has the right mentality to punish any nerves from Anett, which is something that could very well be an issue given that Kontaveit has little experience with this type of matches. She has enough power to hit through Halep, but, if the mistakes start to pile or if the pressure starts to mount, Halep will take advantage.

[Toptipsters]

WTA Newport
Tatjana Maria - Amandine Hesse [email protected] pinnacle /flat 10u/

Maria WTA 87 is not in the best shape. Her defending style is simply not enough against better players. She is always hanging on in the games, but if her opponents are able to avoid mistakes and wait for better spots for attack, she cant do anything with that. But her last losts against Bellis, Vondrousova and Sasnvich are against two classes better players than she will face today.

Hesse WTA 251 is experienced french player, who never was in top150 in her long career. Her level of tennis simply didnt allow that. I saw her yesterday with Harrison, and she had a lot of troubles with her, denied many setpoints in second set and the match was very poor overall.

This is terrible matchup for Hesse, she really hates technical style of tennis and Maria is playing exactly that. Moreover Tatjana likes it here, as she defends points for semifinal here from last year where she lost tight battle with Andreescu. Surprised with the odds and have to take it. GL

[Foxstar]

14 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Also, Barty .

It’s a good job I followed you on that one. ?

[CzechPunter]

Ashleigh Barty (-3.5) to beat Sofia Kenin at 1.80 with Bet365

Kenin is overhyped at the moment imo. She's a very good player, there can be no doubts about that, but I don't think that she's this good just yet. Barty showed great mentality against Kvitova and she has an excellent record against Kenin as well, so I think that she's going to be crushing this much more often that not, especially with the home conditions on her side. Much has been said about her fighter mentality, but she's quite unproven on the Grand Slam stage in any case and this is as hard as it gets.

[darko08]

52% of first serve percentage.. She needs to play with more 1st serves or she will be destroyed against Halep (if she wins against Pavlyuchenkova.. Im not sure). Thanks to Pavlyuchenkova for those 3 double faults in the first set. Pavlyuchenkova with second serves is a mess (1/14 ?)

Edited January 29, 2020 by darko08

[darko08]

Good for Garbiñe! Pavluchenkova 3/21 with second serves

[South_African_Punter]

Dominic Thiem to beat Rafal Nadal @ 3.10.

I think this price represents good value. I keep thinking back to the US Open, where Thiem took Nadal to a 5th set tie-breaker. Since then, Thiem has only increased his prowess on hard courts, with him winning in IW last year. Besides the 5-setter against Bolt, he has looked very good, especially in his last two matches. Nadal hasn't looked completely comfortable on serve and I believe Thiem has the ability to take advantage of that.

[darko08]

@CzechPunter I’m not sure if Barty will have an easy win against Kenin. All the wins of Barty here in straight sets have been against tall players (Hercog, Rybakina and Kvitova). For tall players like these it’s too hard to play against Barty and her slice but she dropped a set against Riske (6-1) and Tsurenko (who has been a mess for a long time). I don’t see Kenin suffering that shot and I see her taking the lead of the match (in some parts of it) and dominating it from the centre court as she usually does. The serve can make the difference of course… (I expect a win of Barty but Kenin can trouble her I think).

[darko08]

Rafael Nadal (-4,5 Games) to beat Dominic Thiem at 1.80 with 888

I will be quick because the match starts soon. Thiem has not impressed me at all. Alex Bolt won 2 sets against him and Fritz (who came here in a bad form took another 1 from him). Thiem never has done long runs here in the AO. Nadal has destroyed all his oponents except for Kyrgios who gave him a hard match (but that was expected).

Edited January 29, 2020 by darko08

[CzechPunter]

Simona Halep to beat Garbine Muguruza at 1.65 with Pinnacle

Just repeating honestly, it still seems to me that Halep isn't getting a lot of respect for reasons I don't understand.