Australian Open 2020

[darko08]

Good for Bencic, won her first game and avoid the ? against Anett

[darko08]

Whats wrong with this guy’s stomach? In the last US Open he had the same problem. The problem of Isner is that his inefficiency in the return is getting worse and worse and Wawrkina always suffers to break big servers so looks like this will be decided in the TB's.

[darko08]

4 minutes ago, freeyourself84 said:

Odds on John rising, that's why I'm a bit sceptic to be honest. ?

If the match goes as I think the smarter decision is take the better priced player

[Robinnho]

I am going on Bertens to beat Diyas @1.50 with Pinnacle..

Though Bertens lost in the only H2H but that was more then 4 years ago when she performed better on clay.  She has since improved on the hard court last few years and Diyas is by no mean an "Elite" player.

?

[darko08]

Gauff/Mcnally to beat Shibahara/Aoyama at 1.64 with Marathonbet

I repeat with Gauff/Mcnally. The first time these Japanese players played together was 6 months before in San Jose where they reached the Final and lost it against Melichar/Peschke in straight sets. After that they have played 7 more tournaments together with some good results (they won the Kremlin Cup and the Tianjin Open and reached the Semifinals in the China Open where they beat Mladenovic/Babos in straight sets). In this 2020 they lost in Brisbane in the first round against Melichar/Yifan (6-2, 6-4) and in the second round in Adelaide against Kenin/Mattek-Sands (7-6, 7-6). Here in the AO the have win against Van Uytvanck/Minnen (7-5, 7-6) in the first round and passed directly in the third round (WO). I’m not going to talk again of Gauff/Mcnally. Just say they have win in in straight sets against Peschke/Schuurs (6-3, 6-4). 

Milos Raonic to beat Marin Cilic at 1.57 with 888

Raonic has win his 3 matches here without dropping a single set. Tsitsipas was outclassed by Raonic. The Canadian had 6 BP (converting 2 of them) and conceded 0. Cilic has been my nightmare in this AO. The only 2 matches he has played well were the ones I did bet against him. Anyway, he almost lost against Paire and played another 5 set match against Bautista. Raonic serve hasn’t been broke in 3 matches so I don’t expect Cilic to have so many BP. 

Roger Federer vs Marton Fucsovics Over 34.5 Games at 1.82 with 888

Fucsovics is playing really well and I think he will trouble Federer more than the odds suggest. 

Ons Jabeur to beat Qiang Wang at 2.75 with bet365

Jabeur has given to me some money in this AO. I took her against Konta and Garcia but I had no balls to repeat with her against Woz… Bad deal. Now she plays against the player who has caused the bigger upset of this tournament. Just 3 weeks ago Jabeur was destroyed by Wang (6-3, 6-0) in Shenzhen. Despite that loss I think Jabeur is heavily underrated. She’s not as consistent as Wang but she’s more talented and has more variety than her. After that match in Shenzhen she did very well in Hobart winning 3 matches and losing finally against Muguruza in a 3 set match (including a close TB in the final one). She has win here against Konta, Garcia and Wozniacki so to me all the value is on Jabeur.
 

[CzechPunter]

M.Fucsovics/R.Federer - Over 34.5 games at 1.82 with Pinnacle

Following up with what others have said about Federer/Fucsovics. I remember him playing decently against Fedex here in 2018, but he was mentally very poor back then and couldn't really hold his own when the pressure started to mount. He's better now and he's played some decent players already without getting into any sort of trouble, so the line does look a bit low to me given the epic Roger has just played.

[teodorppv]

Rublev to beat A.Zverev at 1.9 with bet365

Even after his 3 clean wins ,without dropping set, Zverev somehow looks vulnerable to me. In all of his 3 matches the German was serving very well ,in all of the matches he had over 70% first serve, but none of his opponents was good enough to manage to challenge somehow Zverev and to put him in a bad place. I don’s see the German as a solid player right now and I just can’t see him in the semi-finals or in the final.  On the other hand Rublev is on fire, 2 titles for just a month, and not only his tennis skills were exposed during this run , 11 wins out of 11 matches, but his mental ones,  on multiple occasions he had to fight to survive and stay in the match and win a set from a break behind.Right now Rublev seems to be more motivated for me and also we can’t neglect the fact that the momentum is with the Russian.

[Toptipsters]

WTA Australian Open:
Angelique Kerber - Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova [email protected] pinnacle /flat 10u/

I wrote about both here already. Kerber surely improved a bit here, compared to her last 6months, but it is not enough for me to trust her again. Yesterday Giorgi was little better in the rallies, but she started so bad with 8 doublefaults and 24 unforced errors in 1st set, and thats impossible to play. In second set the match was pretty equal but in third Kerber was down as many times in past. Giorgi had many chances to break her faith, but failed to do that and later the defence of Kerber prevailed over Giorgi's ofence, and Kerber managed to win.

About the progress of Pavlyuchenkova since the arrival of coach Sumyk I wrote many times and she is getting better and better. She was of course playing on high risk yesterday with Pliskova, but even in pressure situations she kept a calm head and played her game. She was really deadly on return, and we know how good Pliskovas serv is.

I think, that Nasta is bigger fav here than odds says. If she was dominating Plsikovas serv, Kerber ones will be easier for her. She beat Kerber at the end of last season in Osaka 62 63 (Pavlyu was @2.13 outsider there) , since that time  both players improved, but Pavlyuchenkova much more than Kerber and thats why I see current fair price on the russian around 1.70. GL

[Toptipsters]

WTA Australian Open:
H Carter / L Stefani - G Dabrowski / J Ostapenko [email protected] pinnacle /flat 10u/

Carter/Stefani are both top100 players, who however made most of their points on smaller events, which are without top double players and single ones. They are playing nice doubles game, with solid play at the net, but without big shots and with weaker serving. I backed them yesterday at 1.96 against Han/Zhu , as the chinese pair is really a terrible doubles couple, but I cant see any chances for us/brazil pair tonight.  

Dabrowski/Ostapenko are both very strong in doubles, big hitters, good returns, passing and serving and I really cant see how two smaller players can hang on to their fast game.  I was expecting max 1.30 here, so I gladly take current odds on big favs of this match. 

[Torque]

Just had a quick look at the outrights and this price on the exchanges looks worth taking...

Daniil Medvedev to win ATP Australian Open @ 11.00 Betfair Exchange

Most likely Djokovic wins this, but if he doesn't a Medvedev win wouldn't surprise me. After all, he can beat all those around or above him in the betting. He's beaten Djokovic more than once already and gave him his toughest test in this tournament last year, he very nearly got the better of Nadal in the US Open final and Federer is likely to struggle to win here now after being pushed all the way against Millman. On the basis of his strong end to last season it seems likely he'll win one of the Grand Slams sooner rather than later - I'll be hoping it's much sooner 

[Grass Cash]

I watched the entire Pavlychenkova match.. She played unbelievable as sometimes she tends to do. Having said all of that.. Karolina Pliskova turned out to be a great matchup for her.. Firstly Pliskova was serving borderline terrible.. She had 6 aces and 4 double faults for the match, but only 62% first serves in which I find hard to believe.. As I watched the match it was just an onslaught of missed serves from Pliskova.. Her baseline game wasn't great either. So I believe that she made Pavlychenkova look alot better, and was the perfect opponent for Anastasia to really look spectacular, and indeed she did. 

If Pliskova is the ace queen on the wta tour.. most of her game does rely on having this enormous weapon. It's true she's got good groundstrokes, and can rival the top competitors, but not yesterday she didn't.. Pavly's ground game was better, and this allowed for complete control of the match.. Look at the scoreline.. She still barely won the match 7-6, 7-6 and she played as well as she possibly could.  She also double faulted 11 times with 5 aces.. I think it's very farfetched to bet on her in the next round vs Kerber, because Angelique is going to return many more balls than Pliskova, and eventually will force the errors.. The slice backhand of Kerber is not a shot that Pav's can just easily direct down the line for a winner like she was doing against Karolina's flat balls.. h2h in this matchup is 7-7- also surprisingly with Pav winning the last match, and Kerber the two prior to that. I do like Pavlychenkova as a person, and a player.. She's really nice woman etc... but you won't find me looking to bet on her next match, and this means something because I did bet on her to beat Pliskova in the last round.  But, I am entertaining a bet for Kerber right now as we speak. 

Gl gents.. Great picks from what I saw @Robinnho, and to Darko and CZech that liked the Rublev pick above.. Well maybe you didn't catch the Zverev match.. He was murdering the ball "up the line" at will and is in pristine form.. My only question marks on his game right now are the fitness levels which I think is normal for him, and I don't see him limping with a knee situation or things like this, and his serve was not as potent as it usually is.. Now I believe the match vs Verdasco was more of a casual affair walking through the park.. He's very comfortable securing that victory, but I have pretty big feeling there is alot more service prowess held in his backpack for a big match vs Rublev who he has never lost to. Zverev looks very confident in his post match interviews to me, and just really enjoying life and his tennis right now. 

Edited January 25, 2020 by money44

[Torque]

@money44 Completely agree about Pliskova. Served terribly and without her serve she's bang average and would be hovering around the top 50. Watching her last night all I could keep thinking was how on earth has she won as many titles as she has and how is she ranked 2 in the world, and of course the answer is her serve - when it's working.

[Grass Cash]

@Torque.. I think its going to be almost impossible for her to beat Kerber because of the consistency.. the only way I see a path if Kerber does one of her usual poor performances or is injured.. But, I'm not really seeing those as a possibility this time for some reason.. Kerber is a nightmare to play against for Pavlychenkova because she is a counter puncher, and will force those errors. 

Edited January 25, 2020 by money44

[Torque]

Again I agree with you @money44 Kerber's consistency should see her through. Pavlyuchenkova played about as well as she can play against Pliskova - the two points she won when facing set point in the second set were particularly good especially considering the situation - and even then as you said her win was about as narrow as you can get.

[bobix]

22 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Also thinking about Diego stealing a set off Djokovic, the odds are certainly juicy and, even though he doesn't have any big weapons, he'll be there as he was against Rafa in 2018. Hasn't even dropped a set yet, which is sort of incredible given that he doesn't have a serve to fall back on, while Djokovic has. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but yeah, I'm going to go for it at 2.89 with Pinnacle. Diego just sort of has this habit of not falling apart and he can run all day long, while his groundstrokes are as good as they are when it comes to the big guys. Having no serve means that he just can't be among the top guys, but he's not Nishioka-like if you want to make comparisons, he's much hardier and mentally apt. He took a set of Medvedev in the ATP Cup, so I am going to have a sporting play based on the odds alone.

Fully agreed, but I personally will look for a "safer" option here, backing Djokovic to win over 18.5 games. Bet365 has this option at 1.66, but my local bookie offers a juicy 1.75 so I will take it. Even if Djoker closes this match in straight sets, I expect at least one of them to reach 10+ games. GL ?

[Grass Cash]

17 hours ago, darko08 said:

Milos Raonic to beat Marin Cilic at 1.57 with 888

Raonic has win his 3 matches here without dropping a single set. Tsitsipas was outclassed by Raonic. The Canadian had 6 BP (converting 2 of them) and conceded 0. Cilic has been my nightmare in this AO. The only 2 matches he has played well were the ones I did bet against him. Anyway, he almost lost against Paire and played another 5 set match against Bautista. Raonic serve hasn’t been broke in 3 matches so I don’t expect Cilic to have so many BP. 

 

Great chop here Darko .. I tailed you,, and liked Raonic also .. match is not finished yet, but I'll be shocked if Cilic comes back from where he's at.  Can't speak on behalf of the other picks.. but they look ok. Initially I was sure Jabeur was going to win with Wang, but I might just wait to see the result instead. 

Edited January 26, 2020 by money44

[Grass Cash]

another good one .. I missed out on Jabeur .. She's one of my favorite players to bet, but i lost on her too many times to get in on the action.. now I'm confused where to place bets on the next matches, but I do think Thiem is going to beat Monfils.  

With Jabeur winning my now my opinions are a bit changed on Rublev - Zverev match.. Really no idea who's going to win that one now, and maybe you guys are right.. probably not going to bet that match, and looking elsewhere.. 

Edited January 26, 2020 by money44

[Grass Cash]

Well I've tried to talk myself out of this bet, but I've analyzed too many times, and I see nothing better to take a chance on. 

Angelique Kerber even/Alexander Zverev even @ William Hill (4.0)

Two Germans Advance to the Quarterfinals to begin 2020 AO Grandslam !

I've already Analyzed the reason I believe that Kerber will win vs Pavlychenkova, and it reinforces my belief in this because its going to be a night match, and this should help Kerber chase down a million balls and time for her to set up her backhand which she was making too many errors on last match vs Giorgi.. I'm expecting atleast a slightly improved performance here from Angelique, but I think she can get it done with what she offered last match either way.. Serve I think may be improved, and definitely possibly that backhand drive shot. Her slice is already in terrific form, and movement seems to on par with the usual. Motivation for Kerber also seems to be very good, and she's got quite a few people out there cheering for her on every point screaming Go Angie etc. I think this might help her atleast a little bit to keep fighting for every point. 

Zverev is also playing at night, and he stated in his last match that he is playing for Australia as well.. He's donating 10k per match he wins, and said that he will try for the 4 million dollars to help the people suffering from the fire, and that he loves playing in Australia. This is not exactly tennis related, but it does provide reasons for his motivation to continue in this tournament. I watched the match, and as I've stated earlier.. The man is playing spectacular tennis from the baseline, and hitting the ball wherever he wants.. This accuracy advantage could prove vital in holding off surging Rublev.  As it turns out; Sascha might even have the fresher legs in this battle because Rublev has been playing lots of matches recently, and the last match vs Goffin also was somewhat physically demanding I'd assume winning in 4 sets. 

The only reason I was hesitant about taking this bet before was because I also really wanted to bet Jabeur, and since I didn't.. I decided this bet was probably doomed to lose.. The Jabeur match really does not have to do with this one, and pretty sure I've analyzed these correctly. 

I'm marking the chances on this double coming through at 60 % with 3/1 odds. Great Luck all. 

 

 

 

 

[four-leaf]

1 hour ago, freeyourself84 said:

John Isner has sadly been forced to retire from his match against Stan Wawrinka after flaring up a pre-existing foot injury from his 2019 season. Sadly I couldn't find this info anywhere else before, big sorry. ?

It really doesn't matter. I lost half my stake after big John lost first set but I quickly decided to place all the remains of what I had on under 10.5 games in second set at the price 2.38 so I won back every thing I lost because I cashed out just before big John retired.

[Toptipsters]

WTA Australian Open:
Krejcikova / Siniakova - Kenin / Mattek-Sands  2@2,1 pinnacle /flat 10u/

Great odds in my eyes. Siniakova is in brig crissis in singles, she is hanging on in doubles, but her level dropped there as well. Krejcikova was always little worse in this pair and without better support from the baseline she is also weaker at the net. They won in Shenzen this year, but the only solid pair there they met in the finals. Here they won in three sets over the germans Friedsam/Siegemund and also three sets against Townsend/Flipkens. Was watching this one, and they won only because T/F didnt have any other plan than serv and volley, which S/K likes the most to play against.

That won't be the same case her, as Kenin will be the strongets from baseline and Mattek will rule the net as always. They won together Peking last year, against all the best pairs and I cant see them underdogs against any other pair except of  Babos/Mladenovic. 

Just ot add, Krejcikova had big health issues in the heat against Townsend and they will play again at early afternoon, so might be some factor too. GL

[CzechPunter]

Daniil Medvedev (vs. Wawrinka) + Simona Halep (vs. Mertens) at 2.04 with Bet365

An embarrassing January, but I'll have another go with this straightforward double. Seeing Wawrinka play against Seppi didn't exactly fill me with confidence and, if Medvedev was beating him in the US Open, he should surely have enough for him now as well. Meanwhile, I also still think that Halep isn't getting the credit she deserves, she's lost only against Sabalenka this year and should be readier for this mentally than Mertens imo. I didn't exactly fancy Mertens against Bellis and this is an even tougher challenge.

[darko08]

Brady/Dolehide (-1,5 Sets) to beat Arruabarrena/Jabeur at 2.10 with bet365

Brady (49) and Dolehide (55) are good friends and they have played some tournaments together. In the first round they won in straight sets against a very good pair Melichar(20)/Yifan(7). In the second round they won in a 3 set match against Sorribes(44)/García(85). Brady played the SF the last year here (w Riske) losing against Babos/Mladenovic and the QF in 2018 (w Vania King). 
Jabeur and Arruabarrena is the first time they play together. In the first round they won in a 3 set match against Stosur(12)/Perez(56). In the second round they won in straight sets against Voracova(63)/Pera(279). Jabeur is not implicated on doubles (W/L record career: 7/12, R: 180) and she will be focused on her singles match against Kenin.  Arruaberrana is a good doubles player (50) but with Jabeur playing the quarterfinals against Kenin I expect the American pair to win this.

[darko08]

Fucsovics to beat Federer at 6.00 with bet365 (Federer is winning the 1st set 2 Games to 1).

[CzechPunter]

Come on, Marton, don't let me down after the first set, I don't want to be this sad ?. Edit: Ridiculous, all net cords and hawkeyes in Fed's favor. That's three bets this AO decided by a single game against me.

Well, let's see what happens with Barty-Kvitova. Wanted to see Sakkari there, but Barty still a marginal favorite, not laying things off. A very sad January.

[CzechPunter]

Nick Kyrgios (+2.5 sets) to beat Rafael Nadal at 1.75 with Pinnacle

Yeah, ok, apparently I'm not going to give up. Honestly, I think that Kyrgios really wanted to get this match from the very start of the tournament and his wishes are going to be granted now. Prime time, against an opponent he loves to hate and that has beaten him in straight sets only twice in seven encounters. Last year, they split matches evenly and the truth of the matter is that Nadal has been getting cakewalk opponents so far, no serve and power to be found anywhere, all pretty much clay court guys that he was able to just slowly outplay. Kyrgios is going to bring some easy holds and tough returns into play and Nadal was hardly great during the ATP Cup, so the fact that he's managed to crush lesser opposition since then doesn't really convince me on any level.

[Robinnho]

Muruguza ML to beat Bertens @1.70 with Pinnacle

Bertens has played well to beat Diyas but now Muruguza is a class better than her previous opponent.  Muruguza is recovering her form and confident as a former 2-Slam winner, a "big stage" player who can keep her calm and composure.  She is playing better as the AO progress showing no sign of virus illness at the moment, therefore I find 1.70 - though the odd has already dropped a little - is a great value for her to dispose Bertens and rightfully be in the final 8 of the AO.

[South_African_Punter]

Dominic Thiem (-3.5 game handicap) to beat Gael Monfils at 1.60 with SportingBet

Monfils has not really played anyone of substance yet this in this tournament but tomorrow he will face a stern match up against Dominic Thiem. Thiem owns a 8-1 H2H record against Monfils, with a fair amount of those matches on hard courts. As we saw last year at Indian Wells and the ATP finals, Thiem's hard court game has come a long way since he burst onto the scene and he has the tools, belief and strategic nous to beat Monfils.

[Teodore]

What a form by Światek. #polishpower 

[darko08]

17 hours ago, darko08 said:

Brady/Dolehide (-1,5 Sets) to beat Arruabarrena/Jabeur at 2.10 with bet365

Brady (49) and Dolehide (55) are good friends and they have played some tournaments together. In the first round they won in straight sets against a very good pair Melichar(20)/Yifan(7). In the second round they won in a 3 set match against Sorribes(44)/García(85). Brady played the SF the last year here (w Riske) losing against Babos/Mladenovic and the QF in 2018 (w Vania King). 
Jabeur and Arruabarrena is the first time they play together. In the first round they won in a 3 set match against Stosur(12)/Perez(56). In the second round they won in straight sets against Voracova(63)/Pera(279). Jabeur is not implicated on doubles (W/L record career: 7/12, R: 180) and she will be focused on her singles match against Kenin.  Arruaberrana is a good doubles player (50) but with Jabeur playing the quarterfinals against Kenin I expect the American pair to win this.

So close...?

I think I’m almost done for this AO. In the finals rounds is always hard to find value so let’s see if I post something more. I have some bets in my mind but I don’t want to make bets that I will regret later so let’s see…  
I also think Kyrgios can trouble Nadal (or take a set from him at least). He’s playing focused like I never seen on him and playing against Nadal always have been a big motivation for him. The first 3 opponents of Nadal here have been a joke (Dellien, Delbonis and Carreño) so he has not been tested yet (and we know he came here with some doubts after his disappointing ATP Cup…). The only concern I have is that I saw Kyrgios physically destroyed after his match against Khachanov… so let’s see.
I have been thinking on Rublev-Zverev match. I still have in my mind the pathetic performance of Zverev in the ATP Cup. He was an absolute mess and I can’t change my opinion about him just because he has won against Cecchinato, Gerasimov and Verdasco… Rublev has been absolutely amazing in his previous tournaments. He never has won against Zverev (or even taken a set from him) but he still looks the favorite one to me…
Raonic-Djokovic. I did not expect too much about Raonic due to his previous physical issues but he has been impressive the whole tournament. Anyway, I expect no surprises in this one… Djokovic said that its easier for him to read Raonic’ serve than the serves of the other big servers (Isner and Karlo). He has lost against Karlo and Isner but he has a prefect h2h against Raonic (9-0). 
Wawrinka-Medvedev. Wawrinka suffered a lot against Seppi. He was ill but he finally won that match in 5 sets. Luckily for him he only played 1 set against an injured Isner so if he’s fully recovered I wouldn’t be surprised if he troubles Medvedev more than the odds suggest. I know Medvedev is in better form than Wawrinka but what he has demonstrated in this AO? Nothing yet…
Mugu-Bertens. Muguruza came here with a lot of doubts but she’s playing better in every round. I think she’s the favorite one but 1.60 is now too low to put my confidence on her against someone like Bertens.
Kerber-Pavlyuchenkova. This is a flip coin to me. Kerber was a mess before coming here and I did not expect anything about her. Pavlyuchenkova came here so much better than Kerber. No wins in Brisbane and Adelaide but she took a set from Kvitova and Barty… and won in straight sets against Kontaveit (not bad at all…). She has not dropped any set in her 3 matches here (Stojanovic, Townsend and Pliskova). I can’t tell nothing about her match against Towsend (looks like she had a hard match there...) but I saw her against Pliskova she did not impress me at all. The match was decided in 2 close TB and Pliskova playing one of the worse matches I ever seen on her…

[Grass Cash]

9 hours ago, South_African_Punter said:

Dominic Thiem (-3.5 game handicap) to beat Gael Monfils at 1.60 with SportingBet

Monfils has not really played anyone of substance yet this in this tournament but tomorrow he will face a stern match up against Dominic Thiem. Thiem owns a 8-1 H2H record against Monfils, with a fair amount of those matches on hard courts. As we saw last year at Indian Wells and the ATP finals, Thiem's hard court game has come a long way since he burst onto the scene and he has the tools, belief and strategic nous to beat Monfils.

This bet was a cakewalk.. Thiem has really been performing well and fighting every point.. I haven't watched match, but I loved Thiem today .. of course I expected Monfils to lose in the past couple rounds also.. But the quality is much higher here.. Yes, i know the match isn't over.. but we all know that it actually is.. Monfils is not coming back. Also, @darko08 - pretty sure you won that womens doubles match.. Not sure why it was close etc.. You're making really solid picks man.. I know the mistakes I've been making , and I intend to really improve my performance here in this forum... I've put alot of bad information out there betting for value when its not realistic outcomes, and I can do that maybe with my own bets, but I'm going to try to avoid them here unless I'm very confident with underrated player but mostly faves... Anyways Cheers, and well done SAP