Australian Open 2020

[Jves]

@South_African_Punter that 2.25 was only because he played two five setters, otherwise we would have undoubtedly seen him as a favourite and he would start around his opening odds, around 1.70. It’s hard court, he is definitely the more talented and better player. I think he’s a bit special, if it was any other player, the cumulative tiredness after two 5 setters would play a big role in my decision, but with him it’s different. He seems to stop trying, so the two lost sets don’t cost him that much energy and that he can win in 5, says to me he is a bit more serious about his business. But that is only my opinion. I have a soft spot for him as he is incredibly fun to watch. If he wins this one, he plays Sandgren, who seems to brought a very good form. Would love to see the odds.

 

 

 

[South_African_Punter]

48 minutes ago, Jves said:

@South_African_Punter that 2.25 was only because he played two five setters, otherwise we would have undoubtedly seen him as a favourite and he would start around his opening odds, around 1.70. It’s hard court, he is definitely the more talented and better player. I think he’s a bit special, if it was any other player, the cumulative tiredness after two 5 setters would play a big role in my decision, but with him it’s different. He seems to stop trying, so the two lost sets don’t cost him that much energy and that he can win in 5, says to me he is a bit more serious about his business. But that is only my opinion. I have a soft spot for him as he is incredibly fun to watch. If he wins this one, he plays Sandgren, who seems to brought a very good form. Would love to see the odds.

 

 

 

Yeah, thought the odds were kind of the wrong way round given Fognini's pedigree on hard. Took the bet in the end, happy it paid off.

[Jves]

I reckon other people gave that 5 setters more importance than they should have done, hence he drifted that much. But again, only an opinion. 

[Jves]

Anyways, so many weird and surprising results tonight, such as Serena, Jabeur, Tsitsipas. Glad to get on 1 winner and 1 loser only. And now Fedex starting 5th set. Interesting.

Edited January 24, 2020 by Jves

[teodorppv]

Opinions about Monfils-Gulbis match 

I mean clearly Monfils is the favourite but do you think Gulbis is able to do another surprise like in his last 2 matches.

[CzechPunter]

Pretty sure that's going to be a mad match, I haven't seen Gulbis lately, but the results suggest that he should be competitive.

[Toptipsters]

WTA Australian Open:
Elise Mertens - Catherine Bellis [email protected] pinnacle /flat 10u/

Bellis WTA 600 is back after two surgeries and more than a year and half without tennis. She is surely talented player, but after the break, she still needs more time to compete with top players. In Houston last year she played very soft tennis with no power. This year its little better, but still lost easily to Kudermetova and Pegula. Here she had great draw, as Maria is really poor rcently and Muchova lost her form. I would rate her tennis to between 60-70th spot currently.

Mertens WTA 17 is tough player, she is not only great in defence, but started to push as well. She played well in Shenzen and Hobart, despite loosing to Rybakina and Waton, but both matches had high quality. Here she won easily with Kovinic and revenge with Watson.

Both met yesterday in doubles and Elise was clearly better from the baseline. I know its diffrenet game, but I simply expect the same scenario today, with Mertens better in all aspects of the game. GL 

[Toptipsters]

WTA Australian Open:
Belinda Bencic - Anett Kontaveit [email protected] pinnacle /flat 10u/

Bencic (WTA 7) is improving here in every match and slowly reaching her last year form after the average start of the season. In Shenzen she didnt really tried hard, but in Adeleide she did, and after solid wins with Kasatkina and Goerges she had no chance with Collins, and really not played so well there. Here she really played a lot better and especially with Ostapenko I saw many great moments.

I really like Kontaveits (WTA 31) game style, but she is doing too many mistakes this year. I saw both her losses with Bertens and Pavlyuchenkova, and she simply wasnt good enough. Here she had a lot of troubles with Sorribes.

I like this odds a lot, despite it dropped a bit already before I got to the writeup. Still enough value. Bencic is more stable currently with smart game, which will work well against Kontaveit, who really doesnt like the rythm changes. GL 

[Toptipsters]

WTA Australian Open:
Camila Giorgi - Angelique Kerber [email protected] pinnacle /flat 10u/

Giorgi (WTA 102) is back in form finally. Last year after the succesful Australian Open, she didnt win a match for 6 months, including 3 months break for back problems after Miami. After that, she was outside top100, but finals in Washington and NY brought her back. This season she started solid and here she is playing best tennis since last AO. Easily overcame Lottner, who was in good mood here, and Kuznetsova, who was also surprisingly dangerous and eliminated Vondrousova. Giorgi was doing only few mistakes in both matches.

Kerber WTA 18 is only shadow of Kerber from past years.  She is weak mostly in her confidence, as she lost with many average players. Only results from Australian Open and Indian Wells are keeping her in top20. Since Toronto she is just on 7W-11L  record and this year looks not much better, as she lost with Stosur and retired to Yastremska while being down in the match. Here she played quite ok on her current level, but both Cocciaretto and Hon made tons of errors.

I see this match as equal one. Camile impressed me in the match with Kuznetsova and with the low number of errors. I think she will be able to keep her shots in court again and defeat Kerbers defence. GL

[Jves]

I am having only one bet from so far known matches of the 4th round and that is:
Jabeur - Wang: Wang - 1.53 @ William Hill

There's a couple of matches which are interesting, but for now, the above is my only bet.

[Teodore]

Any analys about why Wang? @Jves

[Judeksi]

I like Fucsovics against Federer on sunday. Roger must be tired after that 4-hour match against Millman who fought really hard but in some ways choked in the end. Fucsovics has played his best tennis here in a while and has been liking the conditions too. Best odds around 5.50 @William Hill

 

 

[CzechPunter]

Considering something there as well @Judeksi, I remember Fucsovics playing very decently against Roger in the past and the circumstances look right indeed.

[Toptipsters]

WTA Australian Open:
Cori Gauff - Sofia Kenin [email protected] pinnacle /flat 10u/

Gauff is the biggest talent in women tennis for sure, but for me, she is still not compareable to top level players. In Auckland she lost with claycourter Siegemund and here she won with career ending Venus, overturned being 0-3 down in third set vs Cirstea, and today the biggest upset, easy win over Osaka. But those who were watching the game could see, that Gauff didnt win, Osaka gifted the match to her, as I never saw such bad Osaka ever, really ever. She didnt hit a single shot. But thanks to this result (not performance) we have a huge value on Kenin.

I wrote about Kenin many times last year (on other platform) and she is going up step by step. Here she didn't lose a set yet and after easy opening rounds, she played good match today with, in great form playing, Zhang.

If I compare both players perfomances this year, Cori is far from Sofia at the moment. The only aspect of the game, where Gauff is better, is 1st serve and that wont be enough. Those odds are too much affected by todays win, and 1.7 seems really as a gift to me. (Osaka was 1,15 today and Kenin 1,7? No way. Osaka is only little better than Kenin in my books) GL

[ivanhoe]

Monfils - Gulbis  1

I simply can not ignore Monfils here. He`s like a box of chocolates...You never know what you`re going to get. He is also a player who is always a joy to watch, one of the players I would always pay for the ticket just to see him in action. Tennis avant-garde. He`s definitely past his prime  but I`ve always thought that he deserved a bit more in his career - especially on Grand Slam tournaments. Gulbis has risen from the dead here but I doubt he can take something out of this match. Last year he had 8-30 (?!) record. When Gulbis was younger everbody was talking (including Niki Pilic) that there is a great career ahead of him  but it simply didn`t happen. I don`t want to call Ernests a spoiled brat but he threw his talent away. By the way, the record between these two is 3-0 in Mofils` favour.

So...We have a guy who deserves a lot more on the Grand Slam level and a guy who doesn`t deserve anything. Monfils all the way for me.

Mertens - C.C. Bellis  over 20,5

Those who follow the tennis section here could`ve read what I said about Bellis. I`ve read what you guys wrote about the match and I can not but to agree with you though I think Mertens will have a bit more difficult task here. I watched Mertens in Wimbledon last year and was impressed with her ability to endure long rallies and powerful shots she is able to produce. Bellis`s style is different - shorter rallies, change of pace and not-so-powerful but precise and delicate shots. That`s why I think she`ll give Mertens a bit of a headache - at least in one the sets. I agree with you that Bellis`s chances to win this are not big simply because she hasn`t played for a long time on this level and that`s why I`ll also try the correct score: 2-1 Mertens.

Vekic - Swiatek     1

As I`ve said before, Donna is completely focused on tennis and will do her best to reach the final stages of AO. Reaching the 3rd round is her best result ever. I believe Swiatek is an ideal opponent for Donna and I have to say that the draw has been rather kind to her this year. She`s definitely aware of that and I think she won`t miss this chance to confirm herself as a player capable of performing well on the biggest of tournaments.

 

 

Edited January 24, 2020 by ivanhoe

[darko08]

Gauff/Mcnally to beat Peschke/Schuurs at 1.88 with 888

I barely bet on doubles but I like the odds for this one. Gauff and Mcnally are good friends and very good doubles players. They always play together and despite their age they won in Washington (without dropping a single set) and Luxembourg. Peschke and Schuurs are playing together for the first time for this Australian season. They lost against Jurak/Rosolska (6-4, 6-3) in the first round in Brisbane and they retired in Adelaide in the second round after winning against Halep/Olaru (7-6, 4-6, 10-3). Gauff/Mcnally won against Arruaberrena/Voracova (6-1, 7-6) and Moore/Rodionova (6-3, 6-2) in Auckland. Schuurs is the most dangerous player but Peschke's age (44) and the fact they have never played together before are the reasons I think there is value on the young pair.
 

[Jves]

@ivanhoe you can call him spoilt, he said it himself, he does not need money from tennis. IIRC his father is like 5th richest Latvian ?‍♂️ 

 

[CzechPunter]

Also thinking about Diego stealing a set off Djokovic, the odds are certainly juicy and, even though he doesn't have any big weapons, he'll be there as he was against Rafa in 2018. Hasn't even dropped a set yet, which is sort of incredible given that he doesn't have a serve to fall back on, while Djokovic has. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but yeah, I'm going to go for it at 2.89 with Pinnacle. Diego just sort of has this habit of not falling apart and he can run all day long, while his groundstrokes are as good as they are when it comes to the big guys. Having no serve means that he just can't be among the top guys, but he's not Nishioka-like if you want to make comparisons, he's much hardier and mentally apt. He took a set of Medvedev in the ATP Cup, so I am going to have a sporting play based on the odds alone.

[ivanhoe]

1 minute ago, Jves said:

@ivanhoe you can call him spoilt, he said it himself, he does not need money from tennis. IIRC his father is like 5th richest Latvian ?‍♂️ 

 

I know his father is rich. You`re right - let`s call him a brat then. ?

[ivanhoe]

4 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Also thinking about Diego stealing a set off Djokovic, the odds are certainly juicy and, even though he doesn't have any big weapons, he'll be there as he was against Rafa in 2018. Hasn't even dropped a set yet, which is sort of incredible given that he doesn't have a serve to fall back on, while Djokovic has. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but yeah, I'm going to go for it at 2.89 with Pinnacle. Diego just sort of has this habit of not falling apart and he can run all day long, while his groundstrokes are as good as they are when it comes to the big guys. Having no serve means that he just can't be among the top guys, but he's not Nishioka-like if you want to make comparisons, he's much hardier and mentally apt. He took a set of Medvedev in the ATP Cup, so I am going to have a sporting play based on the odds alone.

I watched him yesterday vs Lajovic. Even the commentators said that playing vs Schwatrzman is like playing against a brick wall.??? He`s defensively one of of the best players on the tour together with Djokovic. These odds are certainly inviting and definitely worth a risk.

[ivanhoe]

Any thoughts on Stan Wawrinka ? He was the only player who could match Novak some 6-7 years ago. Odds aren`t that bad though I haven`t seen Isner in action.

[CzechPunter]

Wasn't impressed by him at all against Seppi and Moutet. Too many cheap mistakes and he's struggled heavily against Isner in the past. That said, Isner was crap against Humbert when I last saw him.

[Jves]

Isner at 2.5 was interesting, but now at around 2.2 not that much. I am leaving it and will have a good watch.

[Jves]

I am having another bet: 
Gauff - Kenin: Kenin - 1.71 @ Unibet (min. 1.62)
Reasons already mentioned by @Toptipsters and I would just add that on hard courts, she has lost only 4 out of 21 matches against players ranked between 35 - 80 since the beginning of 2019 and only 3 matches to any lower ranked players since the end of July 2019 and that shows incredible consistency. 

Edited January 25, 2020 by Jves
added min. price + bold

[darko08]

Anybody's watching Pliskova? She's not running at all and she has a strange face, looks like she's ill or injuried?

[Jves]

No, that is just Pliskova. She never looks like running or happy or angry or anything basically

 

[darko08]

@Jves I know Pliskova's game... But i have never seen her playing that passive. Im sure theres something wrong with her. Let's see what she says after that match

Edited January 25, 2020 by darko08

[Jves]

Every time she gets knocked out of the tournament, she looks like this. If her serving isn't working, she's 1/2 player.

[darko08]

Is the serve what is saving her. She's playing against a player that has win only 1 set in 7 matches against her. Pavlyuchenkova is playing a bad match and she's even winning the match. Pliskova won the title in Brisbane beating Tomjlanovic, Riske, Osaka and Keys. She destroyed Mladenovic and Siegemund in her first two rounds... and now is playing with most passive attitude i have ever seen in her. There's something wrong with her, believe me (even if she finally wins the match, i dont care). 

[Jves]

I won't be speculating about her health ?‍♂️ She can say whatever she wants, obviously she is not gonna say, I could not be arsed to move. She will probably say something like I did not feel well today and court was too small for me
Very poor match quality wise considering it was 4th round.