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Toptipsters last won the day on January 28

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  1. WTA Doha Jelena Ostapenko - Petra Kvitova 2@1.41 pinnacle /flat 10u/ Kvitova is really stable player this year. She lost only in tight fights to Keys and Barty. In Petersburg she withdrawn due to illness, but here she seemed fully fit and improved a lot during the match with Suarez, completly dominated 2nd and 3rd set with lot of winners and just few errors. Ostapenko is little unstable this year after the family troubles. She had great draw here with Teichmann and Strycova, who both were in full defence against her. But she really hates fast hitters and that will be todays case. Kvitova is class better player currently for me and she will be forcing Jelena to many errors with her fast game. I think eveything over 1,4 is ok for a bet. so 1,44 pinn or 1,47 BF with 2% comm are good values for me. GL
  2. WTA Doha Amanda Anisimova - Svetlana Kuznetsova 1@1.69 pinnacle /flat 10u/ I took a bet against Anisimova in the first round, as she had a stomach problems lat week and played really bad with Strycova. But the way she won that first round with in form Alexandrova, and the way she pushed out Svitolina in 2nd round made quite big impression to me. Anisimova was playing really well, like she did in first half of last season and for me she is back in good form with higher confidence. I saw Kuznetsova in almost all matches this year and I see big diffrence between both players. Svetlana won with Vondrousova in AO, but Marketa is still not ready after injury. Otherwise her results and play are about average. Here she won Buyukakcay and Swiatek, but espacially Swiatek played really badly today. Kuznetsova is playing little better than expected at the end of her career, but it wont be enough against back in form Anisimova. Amanda will punsih her weaker serv and will push her back from all positions, as she did against Svita. This odds are best value from round 16 to me and I have to take young american at current odds. GL
  3. WTA Doha Jelena Ostapenko - Jil Teichmann 1@1.57 pinnacle /flat 10u/ Just shortly, no time. Teichmann improved on hard as I wrote, but it is enough only on weaker players. Ostapenko is dangerous on hard. She continues in solid game after great finish of last season. Won for example over Kenin in Fed Cup on hardcourt. She will be too much for Teichmann, who is despite improvements bellow average player on faster surfaces. WTA Doha Kristina Mladenovic - Veronika Kudermetova 2@1.75 pinnacle /flat 10u/ Both players improved lately, but there is much bigger step up in Kudermetovas game. She won vs Yastremska in Dubai and gave really hard time to Muguruza, while Mladenovic made just three games with Pliskova, who wasnt at her best there. Veronika doesnt like defensive minded players, but Mladenovic is not that kind of player. I think Kudermetova will be better from the baseline, with less errors and that will be the key for the victory.
  4. WTA Dubai Veronika Kudermetova - Dayana Yastremska 2@1.46 pinnacle /flat 10u/ Dayana is having a good season, she lost to Bertens, Barty, Wozniacki, who are top players with nasty defence, which Yastremska do not like. She managed to reach Adeleide finals with several solid wins. Last week, she made three easy wins in Fed Cup as well. Kudermetova is playing similar style as Yastremska, but is generally worse in it. She played nothing special in Australia, lost both matches in Fed Cup and also 2nd round in Petersburg to Bertens, with no chances at all. Here she passed qaulies, but with lot of troubles in all matches. They played each other at the of last season in Tianjin, and Kudermetova won, but I was watching that match and it was Yastremskas worst match for a long long time. I see her as huge fav in current form here, and anything over 1,4 is worth to take for me. GL
  5. WTA Dubai Kristina Mladenovic - Polona Hercog 1@1.84 pinnacle /flat 10u/ Mladenovic really likes to play in Dubai. She was in the semifinals in the 100k ITF in december, where she was robbed by refs and couldnt keep calm mind after that and lost with Snigur. The way she won both rounds here against Paolini and Kasatkina was impressive. Especially against Daria, you need to play lot of winners and with confidence. Hercog improved a lot last year, but I still dont like her game so much. She has always lot of problems with smart opponents. Here she had really easy draw with You and Han, still she lost 5 times her serv and won mostly due to asians weaker serv and game. I believe Polona wont like this matchup, as Mladenovic is changing the pace of the game and will make her run a lot. Moreover Kiki seems in solid form and she really likes it here. Last year she won Osaka here and reached the last 16. Current odds are simply too high. GL
  6. WTA Hua-Hin Patricia Maria Tig - Magda Linette 2@1.52 pinnacle /flat 10u/ I wrote about Magda many times last season. She improved from just running defender to a player who can push as well and improved a lot on 1st serv, which lead to many good results on hard court and top50 rankings. Here she seems back in good form as her games with Peng and talented Wang were really quality ones. I like Tigs progress after 19 months break due to injury and preganancy, but I still rate her much worse player than Linette. Tig had really good draw here, moreover I think Zheng didnt played on 100% yesterday, as she got really great draw in Dubai qualies for today. For me Magda is clear favorite here, as she is better player in all aspects of the game and she won better players here already, than Tig is. GL
  7. WTA St. Petersburg Alize Cornet - Maria Sakkari 2@1.909 pinnacle /flat 10u/ Bad decission to wait with this bet till morning, but still some value left. Sakkari is really dangerous player right now on all surfaces. Great serv and forhand and good movement. Her bad run at the end of last year was caused by her wrist injury, but now she is fully fit and won very dg indoors player Diatchenko in first round. Cornet is 22-27 career indoors and thats really poor for longterm top30 player. She won Ivakhnenko and Zvonareva in the qualies, and amazingly bad Ostapenko in the 1st round. This win is overrated by to books now, giving us some nice value. Maria has better serv and better form I would say, after great AO. Also last two hardcourt h2h matches she won over Cornet, and inddors she might have even little better edge. GL
  8. WTA Australian Open S Hsieh / B Strycova - T Babos / K Mladenovic 2@1.81 pinnacle /flat 10u/ I thought I am done with AO, but this one is simply too good. Babos/Mladenovic are the best pair for me, they are playing agressive game, great returns and perfect net anticipation. They had really tough draw since R1 and didnt lost a set against some top teams like Barty/Goerges, Chan sisters or young guns McNally/Gauff. Strycova/Hsieh are nr1 in the world, but since Wimbledon I see some downtrend in their game. They finished last year with 5 losses from 8 matches. Yes they won Brisbane this year, but only Hardecka/Klepac were the real doubles threat there. Here they had really easy draw, the only top team were Siniakova/Krejcikova in the semis, but they really hate smart tennis which Bara and Su-Wei produces. It is close match on the paper, but not for me accoding to what I saw here. I am clearly on Babos/Maldenovic side. They met two times last year, In Wimbledon, Strycova/Hsieh won tight battle, but we all know how Strycova was playing her lifetime tournament there and that Hsiehs shots are soo difficult to play against on grass. Second time they met on masters on hardcourt, and B/M won easily 6-3 6-1 and I really believe they can repeat straight sets victory. They showed better tennis against stronger pairs and I was expecting odds around 1,6 on them. GL
  9. WTA Challenger Andrezieux-Boutheon Oceane Dodin - Harmony Tan 1@1.5 pinnacle /flat 10u/ Dodin WTA 152 returned to tour in April last year, after long injury break and she already climbed up back by 300 spots in the rankings. She is back in solid form. She is a former top50 player, but I doubt she can get that far again, I expect her around top100. I played her already in AO qualies against Flink, but she got exhausted by that crazy conditions after 6games and couldnt even run. Indoors is her best surface and I expect her agressive game to make the diffrence today. Tan WTA 242 ia an average player, who never enetered top200 yet. She is also solid on faster surfaces with 60-56 record, but most of the matches played on ITF25 and lower. Her game level is much lower than Dodins for me. Last week she made the final in Petit-Bourg, where she lost to Podoroska. They both met indoors in october last year, in Cherbourgs final, and Dodin won comfortably 6-4 6-2. Not much changed since that time in terms of quality of both players, so I can see similar scenario here today. GL
  10. WTA Newport Tatjana Maria - Amandine Hesse 1@1.65 pinnacle /flat 10u/ Maria WTA 87 is not in the best shape. Her defending style is simply not enough against better players. She is always hanging on in the games, but if her opponents are able to avoid mistakes and wait for better spots for attack, she cant do anything with that. But her last losts against Bellis, Vondrousova and Sasnvich are against two classes better players than she will face today. Hesse WTA 251 is experienced french player, who never was in top150 in her long career. Her level of tennis simply didnt allow that. I saw her yesterday with Harrison, and she had a lot of troubles with her, denied many setpoints in second set and the match was very poor overall. This is terrible matchup for Hesse, she really hates technical style of tennis and Maria is playing exactly that. Moreover Tatjana likes it here, as she defends points for semifinal here from last year where she lost tight battle with Andreescu. Surprised with the odds and have to take it. GL
  11. No other topic is opened for this week so I post it here. Admin: If I should open a new topic, just write me a line. thnx WTA Newport Mayo Hibi - Tereza Mrdeza 1@1.36 pinnacle /flat 10u/ Lower odds but this one should be easy. Will keep it shorter, many matches to study in new week. Hibi is tough player with unorthodox game style, great movement, great defence but she can bite time to time. She won last ITF of 2019 in Vegas against good players and played also solid in AO qualies. Mrdeza is coming off unsuccesfull final in Vero last week. This one was played on clay and it was raining there for first three days, so Tereza spent more than 7 hours on court from friday to sunday as they played more than one match a day. Moreover she is pure claycourter. Simply cant see Hibi loosing here. Reasons manetioned above and I see her as huge fav here. GL
  12. No other topic is opened for this week so I post it here: WTA Newport Quinn Gleason - Marie Benoit 2@1.64 pinnacle /flat 10u/ I know odds little dropped, but still great value for me. Benoit WTA 290 is a belgian player, who is in 3rd hundred for last three years, but I like her tennis more than her rank is. She is best on clay, but her career record on hard is solid 65W-43L After ITF25 title in Daytona, she lost last week in first round with clay specialist Maristany and should be well prepared for Newport. Gleason WTA 390 is universal player on all surfaces. She has negative bilance on both hard and clay and have to say on one class lower level than Marie. On hard she is 22W-24L. She played Daytona as well (Benoit won there) and lost in 1st round. I was watching her yesterday in qualies, and she played really nothing. Manasse made tons of unforced errors and was lmitted in movement as she got medical timeout and taped her leg during 2nd set. Benoit will not give easy points to Gleason, she will be much better from the baseline and she will punish Gleasons weak scond serv, which is really so slow. Nice value for me. I see big diffrence between the players, eventhough Benoit played only one hardcourt event last year. GL
  13. WTA Australian Open: Krejcikova / Siniakova - Kenin / Mattek-Sands 2@2,1 pinnacle /flat 10u/ Great odds in my eyes. Siniakova is in brig crissis in singles, she is hanging on in doubles, but her level dropped there as well. Krejcikova was always little worse in this pair and without better support from the baseline she is also weaker at the net. They won in Shenzen this year, but the only solid pair there they met in the finals. Here they won in three sets over the germans Friedsam/Siegemund and also three sets against Townsend/Flipkens. Was watching this one, and they won only because T/F didnt have any other plan than serv and volley, which S/K likes the most to play against. That won't be the same case her, as Kenin will be the strongets from baseline and Mattek will rule the net as always. They won together Peking last year, against all the best pairs and I cant see them underdogs against any other pair except of Babos/Mladenovic. Just ot add, Krejcikova had big health issues in the heat against Townsend and they will play again at early afternoon, so might be some factor too. GL
  14. WTA Australian Open: H Carter / L Stefani - G Dabrowski / J Ostapenko 2@1.44 pinnacle /flat 10u/ Carter/Stefani are both top100 players, who however made most of their points on smaller events, which are without top double players and single ones. They are playing nice doubles game, with solid play at the net, but without big shots and with weaker serving. I backed them yesterday at 1.96 against Han/Zhu , as the chinese pair is really a terrible doubles couple, but I cant see any chances for us/brazil pair tonight. Dabrowski/Ostapenko are both very strong in doubles, big hitters, good returns, passing and serving and I really cant see how two smaller players can hang on to their fast game. I was expecting max 1.30 here, so I gladly take current odds on big favs of this match.
  15. WTA Australian Open: Angelique Kerber - Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 2@1.9 pinnacle /flat 10u/ I wrote about both here already. Kerber surely improved a bit here, compared to her last 6months, but it is not enough for me to trust her again. Yesterday Giorgi was little better in the rallies, but she started so bad with 8 doublefaults and 24 unforced errors in 1st set, and thats impossible to play. In second set the match was pretty equal but in third Kerber was down as many times in past. Giorgi had many chances to break her faith, but failed to do that and later the defence of Kerber prevailed over Giorgi's ofence, and Kerber managed to win. About the progress of Pavlyuchenkova since the arrival of coach Sumyk I wrote many times and she is getting better and better. She was of course playing on high risk yesterday with Pliskova, but even in pressure situations she kept a calm head and played her game. She was really deadly on return, and we know how good Pliskovas serv is. I think, that Nasta is bigger fav here than odds says. If she was dominating Plsikovas serv, Kerber ones will be easier for her. She beat Kerber at the end of last season in Osaka 62 63 (Pavlyu was @2.13 outsider there) , since that time both players improved, but Pavlyuchenkova much more than Kerber and thats why I see current fair price on the russian around 1.70. GL