Australian Open 2020

[CzechPunter]

All look reasonable to me. I wouldn't bet on Keys on principle though, 1.07 is way too low for someone so brittle.

[fizrukas]

Stefanos Tsitsipas - Philipp Kohlschreiber || Over 33.5 games || 1.81 with OLYBET 

Well, this looks ridiculous to me. Fact that greek is so talented and have a very mature game for a 22yy. Probably he will end up winning.  But on the other hand we have german,  and he is no mug whatsoever, he likes this surface,  serves really well, have a huge experience, and sometimes these things plays a part in big tournaments. Despite Stefanos winning easily R1, german did the same vs M. Giron. I am expecting some serious battle for at least two sets. Smth like 7:5 7:5 6:4 will get passed.  But i am expecting german to take at least a set here, which is @ 1.97 and very likely to happen. But i am picking with more insurance over 33.5! GL ? 

Edited January 21, 2020 by fizrukas

[darko08]

@vvararu If youre looking for short odds you also have Bautista (vs Mmoh). One of the most reliable players nowadays. I think is 1.10-1.1

[fizrukas]

Grigor Dimitrov (-4.5 games) to beat Tommy Paul || 1.98 with OLYBET 

At first look, looks like american had not bad last years ending, winning some games also he showed some good tennis in Adelaide.  But when you see who he has played is just low ranked players,  Adelaide he has some wins but also vs clay specialists Cuevas,  Ramos that were beaten in first round. I honestly don't believe that he can do smth here vs very well,  consistant player like Dimitrov!  Last year Paul didn't even make in R1 here. Dimitrov is way above and i see no problem to oust american home right away. GL ? 

Edited January 21, 2020 by fizrukas
Edit of mistakes

[Grass Cash]

@vvararu

I'm rating Cilic to win. 85%. I'm preparing to unload on it.. scared odds will go down . Implied odds suggest reasonable value would start at around 77%.

[Grass Cash]

Gl fizrukas.. nice to read it.

[Jves]

I had pinned a few more matches to look at, but thanks do the odds movement, I will be having no more bets on the 2nd round. ?‍♂️ GL everybody

[fizrukas]

Does Cilic to win @ 1.4 really worth it?!  Really..  I mean his stamina is so questionable,  he had rough year of 2019 almost lost in every 3 games.  Only AO where he last little bit longer.. But it was a year ago..  i feel here Benoit have a chance. Dont want to make up your minds,  but be carefull,  and GL if you won't! 

Edited January 21, 2020 by fizrukas

[Grass Cash]

nope .. I don't think it's worth it if you have supreme patience, but I am trying new strategy to follow my instincts even if odds are not that great because these type of small profits can stack in the long run. 

[Torque]

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

All look reasonable to me. I wouldn't bet on Keys on principle though, 1.07 is way too low for someone so brittle.

Rus on a set plus looks good to me. She played well against Linette - high first serve percentage, low unforced errors - and she's not far off Keys in the power department either. She prefers clay of course, but that means she's used to long rallies and that could definitely frustrate Keys into making errors. Keys is also a rhythm player and she'll likely have to contend with the occasional moonball which will knock her off her stride. Also in favour of Rus is that she's looking really fit - as though she could play hours and hours of high-percentage tennis, keeping the ball in-play and that isn't something Keys will enjoy. I'm less enthused by the game plus here, as Rus could definitely lose a set heavily like she did against Linette in the last round, but a bet on her to take a set looks like a value play to me.

[CzechPunter]

Pegula is so nervous, this is going to go wrong I'm afraid.

[Grass Cash]

News Bulletin fresh off the press.. Sabalenka loses again... this time to world power Suarez.. Future of tennis is in great hands with the Lioness. 

[Grass Cash]

Well - its super windy in Melbourne right now.. This affecting the matches alot i think.. In my opinion there is a very good chance this is gonna throw off Milos serve, and Garin might make quick work of him.. We got a few minutes to discuss this one to anyone who wants to give an opinion 

[Grass Cash]

Christian Garin to beat Milos Raonic @ 3.5 with William Hill

Garin is getting a ton of support in Australia and from his country. He's also playing very well from what I saw.. If Milos struggles on serve at all like i mentioned.. This is going to be a sweet kiss goodnight. 

match is scheduled to start in about 10 minutes.. should be exciting also.. can't wait. 

Edited January 22, 2020 by money44

[darko08]

As the day has started well with the victories of Gorges, Jabeur and Barty I want to add some other bets I'm on.

Roberto Bautista (-2,5 Sets) to beat Michael Mmoh at 1.83 with Marathonbet

I haven’t seen Bautista dropping a set in the last 7 matches. Most of them were against low ranked players but his victories in straight sets against Kyrgios, Lajovic and Feli were impressive. I think Mmoh is not the right player to break this great streak.

Fiona Ferro (+5,5 Games) to beat Qiang Wang at 1.62 with 888

Fiona destroyed Van Uytvanck (6-1, 6-2) in her first round here. Wang is not in her best moment and she suffered against Parmentier in her first round (7-6, 6-5) here. She was destroyed by the out of form Kerber (6-1, 6-3) in her last match before coming here. I think Fiona can trouble Qiang and cover this handicap.

Arantxa Rus (+6,5 Games) to beat Madison Keys at 2.10 with 888

As @Torque and @CzechPunter said the odds for Keys are very low. Keys is in a great moment but 1.06 is exaggerated. I did not see Rus against Linette but after reading some comments here I think this line can be covered. 
 

[Grass Cash]

I took Rus to back up my Garin play as insurance for about 12% of the Garin bet. 

[darko08]

@money44 

[CzechPunter]

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (-3.5) to beat Taylor Townsend at 1.82 with Pinnacle

Have to go for this honestly. Townsend was the worse player of the two against Pegula, but she somehow managed to win with Pegula not managing to handle her nerves at all in the previous round. Pavs is on another level, not game-wise, but mentality-wise. Also, I think that she's somewhat better off physically and that could play a role given that there isn't the usual day off here.

 

[Robinnho]

Taylor Fritz to beat Kelvin Anderson @ 2.20 with Pinnacle.

Fritz has an easy 1R win and Anderson is not at his best after returning from injury. So he is ready to take on the S. African and I see value in this match-up.

[Teodore]

Guys, what about Jabeur against Woźniacki, only for me 2.47 is quite high and only I See a value? 

[CzechPunter]

Not going to say anything on that, because I was clearly wrong about her and Yastremska.

[Jves]

@Teodore OK, she had one bad match recently - against Pegula, but her other results support the odds. Personally, if someone put a gun to my head, I say odds on Jabeur are still too low for my liking, so I would go with Wozniacki. However, if you do not have anything else in mind (like number of sets or games) I'd just leave it. 

[teodorppv]

Donna Vekic to beat Alize Corner @ 1.44 with bet365

Personally for me that’s a safe match and the odds are very good.

I haven’t watch Cornet’s last match in AO but i watched couple of her’s at the tournaments before AO and somehow she didn’t impressed me at all. Only the match against Martic was interesting and a surprise to me but then Martic couldn’t convert most of her break points and did many unforced errors which means that not Cornet won the match but Martic lost it.

About Vekic I don’t have something particularly to say, with every year she is developing into a better player and the fact that she doesn’t have many titles is a question which I still can’t answer. Overall Vekic is too good for Cornet and also she has to be very motivated because of the fact that the road to the quarter-finals for her is not so tough. After Cornet maybe she is going to face Swiatek (young player who doesn’t have enough exp.) or Navarro (player who Vekic beat last year) and after that maybe Bencic ( who personally for me is not in top form right now). The last but not the least Vekic showed good mental behavior against Sharapova (saved couple of break points and won the second set from behind).

Edited January 22, 2020 by teodorppv

[Jves]

Kvitova - Alexandrova: Alexandrova - 2.95 @ Unibet
Kvitova is rightfully favourite in this one, however the odds just seem to reflect the name as well as the performances. Alexandrova has a great series of results, all numbers such as service percentage, BP won/saved, total games won, etc.. shows it was not by an accident. Under current circumstances, I reckon, odds on Alexandrova should be somewhere in region 2.55-2.60 and 2.95 won't be available for long, therefore I am taking it as a pure value bet. 

 

[Jves]

Bedene - Gulbis: Bedene 1.62 @ various bookies (min price 1.55)
These are odds I cannot leave hang in there. I know Gulbis beat Felix and played quite well, but nothing in 2019 till now shows he can repeat such a performance. I know I said I don't give much weight to ATP Cup, but seems like Felix's performance was not poor due to lack of motivation, but purely because he is not in the best form, therefore, even though it's a big result for Latvian, I am not considering it as something, which would indicate sudden growth in performance. Bedene's performances were always bad playing Australian Open, however I do not think he will pass on this opportunity to equalise his GS maximum by advancing to the 3rd round. 
 

Edited January 22, 2020 by Jves
added min. price

[darko08]

Fernando Verdasco vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Over 38.5 Games at 1.85 with 888

Rublev vs Sugita Over 3.5 Sets at 2.04 with 888

Gerasimov vs Alexander Zverev Over 3.5 Sets at 1.86 with 888

Mikael Ymer vs Khachanov Over 36.5 Games at 1.91 with 888

Rublev, Zverev and Khachanov I think they're are vulnerable and they could suffer more than the odds suggest. Verdasco and Basilashvili always have a lot of ups and downs in their matches so I expect a long match there too.

 

[Torque]

17 hours ago, darko08 said:

Arantxa Rus (+6,5 Games) to beat Madison Keys at 2.10 with 888

As @Torque and @CzechPunter said the odds for Keys are very low. Keys is in a great moment but 1.06 is exaggerated. I did not see Rus against Linette but after reading some comments here I think this line can be covered. 
 

There's a reason I tend to avoid set and game lines - if I back games it loses and sets comes in, if I back sets it loses and games comes in . Anyway, good to see someone won opposing Keys. Like you said @darko08, she was priced far too low which gave the chance to take advantage and back Rus on the handicap.

[FrenchPunter]

Heather Watson to beat Elise Mertens at 3.50 with Parions Sport

 

Watson is playing well right now and has already beaten Mertens in Hobart last week. It was a tough match for the Brit but she showed that she had the technical and mental resources to beat the Belgian. It will be a difficult match because Mertens will want her revenge but I couldn't have missed out on such a tempting odds 

[Jves]

I don't think it's a bad bet, just don't like your odds @FrenchPunter I have this match shortlisted with min price 3.59, I am not getting on, purely because I think she won't repeat that performance, but if I wanted it, I get on at 4.00 at William Hill or she's available at 4.1 & 4.2 @ BFEX with about £400 available.

Edited January 22, 2020 by Jves
added amount available

[ivanhoe]

Bellis - Muchova       1

I can`t go against myself and will back C.C. Bellis again. Yes, Muchova is another level, much better than Maria but I believe Bellis will intelligently use her main weapon - strong and precise shots from the baseline. I saw Muchova likes coming forward and playing volleys (unfortunately a rarity in women`s tennis) but I think Bellis will have an answer to that in precise and strong passing shots. I expect a big battle with a lot of breaks so OVER wouldn`t be a bad idea too. I just hope C.C. prevails in the end.

 

Edited January 22, 2020 by ivanhoe
typing error