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CzechPunter

Australian Open 2020

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Great contributions from everyone in the house, been stalking silently for over 5 years....last night was burnt by Prajnesh and it kept me worrying.....did anyone see it coming?

Does anyone think picking him against Tatsuma was a bad pick?....pls enlighten me.

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1 hour ago, owenclass said:

Hey guys. What do think of Halep and Kerber losing both their matches as they have not had much tennis and they have got some tough matches coming up in the next few hours 

Kerber is in a terrible moment but the match will be played in the rod laver arena so the young inexperienced italian could be too much nervous to upset Kerber... I think Halep losing against Brady is more plausible (Brady is playing very well). That's my opinion, let's see what the others think.

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Ruud to beat Gerasimov @1.40 offered by bet365.

Looks decent bet in my eyes, and according to my personal value criteria.

I like the young Norwegian. I have been noticed him, and I expect a much better season for him than previous years.

Lets start the betting day with this excellent choice!

Good luck my punters!

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Well it would appear that Soon Kwon has some sort of cult following that I did not know about, and he played better than i thought i would.. Yes I lost on two underdog picks listed, and it wasn't that close, and then every other underdog on the sheet won after that.. of course a bit smaller ones.. but nonetheless.. could have foreseen that probably alot of these players.  

However I did list something substanstial to start off and Nikoloz came through.. I'm glad you liked that post Darko, and hope you made some money on that.. I was able to back into some cash flow hedging out a parlay that payed 20 to 1.. So things are doing ok here.. On to the next round, and still have alot of singles upcoming tonight.  gl guys.. I'm going to try and post a favorite to win again in the second round, and see how it goes. 

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No live betting here, but I am seeing some of the Cornet warms ups.. She looks fit enough to run right through Monica .. meanwhile second romanian Halep is losing to Brady.. not a surprise to some people in this forum .. I think Darko mentioned that in a post above.  

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I've got bet prematch on Lu @ 25/1 odds.. yes it's ridiculous bet, and so are the odds with Monfils injury troubles last year, and Lu's previous meeting vs Monfils AO in which it went very deep into fifth set. Monfils is really not moving great from what I can see.. I think Lu still has a chance. 

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Not sure if you are doing live betting, but I am not sure how much longer Monfils can last in this tournament ? He's in jeaopardy of losing first round, and surely can lose in the next round to either Karlovic or Pospisil.. I am not sure why he's even playing the tournament.. He's got tape on his leg, and sure he's not 100%. 

and now we get Diatchenko winning set 2 with odds 7.0 .. I'll be praying that Collins wins, because I have no bet on Diatchenko, and I thought the odds looked good. 

Edited by money44

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@darko08 @ all forum.. What's your opinion on the Georgian in the next round facing Verdasco.  

I had the odds in my head for what i"m thinking they will list.. 2.25 for the Georgian.. probably the public will bet Verdasco a little bit.. tough match to call because last time I saw Verdasco.. he is in pretty good shape.. I'm not sure Nikoloz will want to use all his energy in this tournament because he has a very promising year ahead of him, and Kwon made him work moderately hard in the first round. Still I wouldn't pick Verdasco to win if I had to choose.. but I don't like the odds as they lay now. 

Gael Monfils currently in medical timeout. 

Edited by money44

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5 hours ago, Valentine said:

Great contributions from everyone in the house, been stalking silently for over 5 years....last night was burnt by Prajnesh and it kept me worrying.....did anyone see it coming?

Does anyone think picking him against Tatsuma was a bad pick?....pls enlighten me.

I picked him to win also... yes it was bad because there was many better options to choose from if u took the bet on a single..  A lot of the Australians were dogs at home I liked quite a bit of them I didn't realize they were all basically going to win.. The courts are playing really fast this year and Praj struggled at the end of last year so he can't really be trusted can make a bet like that.

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2 hours ago, money44 said:

@darko08 @ all forum.. What's your opinion on the Georgian in the next round facing Verdasco.  

I had the odds in my head for what i"m thinking they will list.. 2.25 for the Georgian.. probably the public will bet Verdasco a little bit.. tough match to call because last time I saw Verdasco.. he is in pretty good shape.. I'm not sure Nikoloz will want to use all his energy in this tournament because he has a very promising year ahead of him, and Kwon made him work moderately hard in the first round. Still I wouldn't pick Verdasco to win if I had to choose.. but I don't like the odds as they lay now. 

Gael Monfils currently in medical timeout. 

I haven't seen anything about Verdasco so i can't give a good opinion about this match. I got the feelings this could be a long match.. these 2 players can play high quality tennis but both always have ups and downs during their matches so that makes it a very unpredictable match. 

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27 minutes ago, money44 said:

I picked him to win also... yes it was bad because there was many better options to choose from if u took the bet on a single..  A lot of the Australians were dogs at home I liked quite a bit of them I didn't realize they were all basically going to win.. The courts are playing really fast this year and Praj struggled at the end of last year so he can't really be trusted can make a bet like that.

@CzechPunter.... thanks expect my regular contribution henceforth...

@money44....yes I only play singles and was upset cos he couldn't even snatch a set......later found out he was nursing a hand injury during the qualifiers or maybe faced with meeting Djokovic next he decided to tank.....there are so many narratives.

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Julia Gorges to beat Petra Martic at 1.78 with Marathonbet

Both players destroyed their opponents in their first rounds but I think Gorges is in a higher level. I can see her going further and facing Barty in the fourth round. Let’s see…

Ons Jabeur to beat Caroline Garcia at 1.79 with 888

I repeat with Jabeur. Garcia is still very far from her best form. She started the season as she ended the last one, with bad feelings. She lost in straight sets in her second match in Auckland against Bouchard and then in the first round in Hobart against Cabrera. She dropped a set in her first round here against Brengle. Jabeur did well in Hobart and her victory in straight sets against Konta was very convincing.

Ashleigh Barty (-6,5 Games) to beat Polona Hercog at 2.04 with 888

The difference between these 2 players is huge (especially in this surface). Hercog came here without preparation and the reason she’s in the second round is because she faced a player with physical issues. If Barty is focused from the beginning I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hercog ending with 2 or 3 games in the whole match.

Fabio Fognini to beat Jordan Thompson at 1.55 with 888

Thompson is out of form. He lost in straight sets against Kecmanovic in Doha and he also lost in the first round in Adelaide against Ramos. He was lucky to face Bublik in the first round here. I watched the 2 final sets and I saw Jordan very vulnerable but Bublik was more disposed to do a show than trying to win the match. I know going with Fognini is always a risk but the difference of quality between these 2 is huge and i like the attitude he had against Opelka.
 

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Darko interesting picks .. I had zero idea about the Goerges - Martic match.. 

The only thing I can say about taking big minus handicaps this year at the open... Players are holding their serve easier than in most tournaments because the courts are playing super fast. I think you have a chance to win with Barty.. But Hercog I thought was known for having atleast an average serve.. I could be wrong about that.. But I just think its dangerous to lay that many games especially with Barty struggling in her first round match for 3 sets.. I hope you win, and I will not be betting Hercog handi or even have the option ot bet that... As for Jabeur-Garcia.. looks good on paper.. I am concerned if garcia steps her game up for the grandslam, and her serve will be a notch better than Jabeur's at their peak level.. good luck my friend, and hope you don't mind the breakdown of those pics. No comment on the Fognini play because I have no opinion there really.. Hope you win that one also. 😎

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Anybody seen Wozniacki playing ?? I`m asking this because this is her last tournament and she`s about to face Yastremska who`s been set as a favorite. I`m just wandering if that`s realistic because both should be well motivated and should "cancel" each other - a typical scenario for an OVER. Your thoughts are more than welcome.

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Wozniacki was just poor against Pegula in Auckland. Once Pegula settled her nerves, she was out-hitting her with ease and Wozniacki just wasn't able to chase things down. Yastremska is better than Pegula, so make your pick. Obviously Wozniacki's motivation might be a factor, but I'm not convinced personally.

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Yep, thanks buddy @money44. I would say she has a decent serve but not enough to be worried about i guess. I got the feelings that this will be an easy match for her. She dropped the first set but then won the next two 6-1. I barely bet these kind of high handicaps but with this one i got a feeling.. let's see. Well, i have check the results of all the grand slams of the last year from Caro and its a mess (3 wins in AO, 1 in RG, 0 in Wimbledon and 0 in the US open). I like the fact that was Jabeur who pulled her off from the US Open in straight sets 😂

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Not a bad start to the Aussie Open at all. I am only disappointed by Edmund's performance, who never looked like the same player after the rain interruption. So good job to those, who backed Lajovic. Hurkacz decided to make it a little bit harder for himself and nervier for us, but at the end, he got there. Nothing to say to my other selections.
For 2nd round I am going with:
1. Rybakina - Minnen: Rybakina to win - 1.40 @ Bet365 (I would think about taking 1.36)
In the 2nd round, Rybakina meets the Belgian qualifier and with all due respect to Minnen's good performances, Rybakina is a different class, especially in the current form, she has a good serve, does not make many double faults. She has proven over the last couple of weeks, she can beat much tougher opponents. So, even though 1.40 is almost on the very bottom of my value line for this match, I personally do not see any other result, than 2:0, but for the piece of mind, I am going only with the match odds.

2. Fognini - Thompson: Fognini to win - 1.62 @ BFSB (min. 1.54) 
I go with Fognini as well here, but for a different reason. Coming back from 2:0 down against big serving Shrek (seriously, look at Opelka ;) ) is something, what I was not expecting, not because Fabio wouldn't be able to do that, but because that match had all the parameters of the matches, which Fabio usually only turns up to take prize money. That performance showed me, he might actually be taking this AO seriously. TBH, looking at his draw, he should be able to make it to QFs. So as it has been mentioned, backing Fabio always carries a risk, but I am willing to take it.
3. Muguruza - Tomjanovic: Muguruza - 1.73 @ Betway (min. 1.70) 
Again, this seems like a risky match, considering Muguruza's recent withdrawal due to some kind of virus. She will have enough time to rest and fully recover after her win over Rogers in 3 sets, where she looked awful in the first set, but then create a storm in the final two sets. If there weren't any doubts about Muguruza's health, I think we would see something around 1.55. Tomljanovic seems to have some kind of performance issue on during AO, when she always lost in the first round. So even there's still the uncertainty about Muguruza's health, I am taking that price.

So far that's it, I might have a few more later as I am yet to look on Thursday's men matches and have also some more shortlisted.
 

Edited by Jves
typing error

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Ok Folks .. It's time to rock and roll.. no drama tho .. CzechPunter likes these threads clean and robotic.. 😀 But, I do appreciate that CP does actually read all of these posts.. no idea how, like some brain implant i think. 🤐

Marin Cilic to beat Benoit Paire @ -230 with William Hill 

So here's the catch.. odds are not good with this one.. so you'll probably want to build a parlay with it .. if you're that type of bettor, but to each their own.. Thats what i'm doing, and it's not my top ranked bet.. 

Cilic is getting alot of support from Croatian fans in Australia from what I've seen, and his game seems to be in good enough form from what I saw.. He looks relatively confident.. I don't believe he's a threat to win the title however.. I could be wrong about that last part.. Now we have Benoit Paire. I have noticed that his movement looks atleast slightly more hampered than usual, and he is coming off long tournament in Auckland.. This also gives Cilic the advantage because he is the fresher player, and has the more technical game.

:drums:hope:ok:nana<< for luck " you caught me I'm superstitious "

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Sorry Czech for the previous post.. I swear I'm not on drugs or even alcohol right now .. just did too much many years ago.. 

Ok so in regards to the above posting... Here is the parlay I'm trying with Cilic, and I quite like the odds.. The water polo caps are funny hahahaha. 

Evans, Zhang, Cilic, Dimitrov, Zhu, Rybakina, Kudermetova 7 ways.. odds is about 30.0 exactly i think with 10 cents extra. 

Maybe you look at this and question Zhu.. I do as well, but I liked her in the last round to win, and she came through.. I believe that Riske might be vulnerable, and the only reason the payout is good on this parlay is with the addition of Zhu. 

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Karolina Muchova to beat Catherine Bellis at 1.71 with 888

I expected lower odds for Muchova so I think there is value on her. Bellis has been a lot of time out of the courts due to various surgeries. She destroyed Maria Tatjana (6-0, 6-2) but Muchova is another story. I think Muchova’s variety of shots will frustrate Bellis.

Ok guys. I edit because i have to explain the wrong price. The last time i saw the odds Muchova was at 1.71 at 888 (like 20 minutes ago). Just after posting this i have checked the matches again and i have seen that Muchova odds have dropped to 1.61

Edited by darko08

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I think its a close match.. Again, have no idea with this one.. too scared to bet either side.. Muchova does look like smart money though.. I'd like to try a backup parlay, and build it with Muchova.. will do that now just for fun..  @South_African_Punter whats going on over there man.. who are you betting ? LOL - you guys were dead right about Simon, but watch out for Cuevas come clay court season.. I think he's got a decent run in him on the dirt this year, but thats about it.. I don't see him having too much success on grass or hard. 

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call the coast guard for @DrO also.. I guess this round of picks is pretty tough.. Last round was a bettors lottery dream.. there was so many good bets... it was hard to choose one.. that can be a problem sometimes.. It happens alot.. I can't decide which option to take, and then everything wins.. Really not a good feeling, but i got a bit lucky in the first round. 

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Hey guys, I'm looking for a big stake banker for this night.

Have a couple in mind, so I'll choose some of them:

  • Schwartzman to beat Davidovic-Fokina @1.16
  • Lajovic to beat Polmans @1.28
  • Barty to beat Peterson Hercog @1.12
  • Keys to beat Rus @1.07

What is your mind about these pair? Do you know/have anything in mind (besides surprise factor) that could interfere? 

Otherwise, do you see other "bankers" for the 3rd day?

Thanks in advance.

 

P.S. Also, Dimitrov looks pretty good to me for a even higher price of around @1.33

Edited by vvararu

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