Weekend > Feb 24th - 26th

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

A lovely blend of matches to bet on this weekend. It is the EFL Cup Final on Sunday plus the usual schedule for the Championship, League One, League Two, SPL, and Scottish Championship.

@salmonman, you called the Fulham away win. Great job. What are you liking this weekend?

@allyhibs, well that was easier than I expected. Not sure about how you felt afterwards? You should follow it up with a solid win at home to Dunfermline right? What about the other games in the Scottish Championship? Any tips for us all south of the border?

@DW_United, did you go for the Betfair offer? Fancy an accumulator this weekend?

@canaries91, you hinted at a possible Millwall let-down. Did you back them in the end? Got any bets lined up this weekend?

@nenri981, never back Newport this season! Cannot buy a win! They've now lost 6 of their last 8 league games and seem destined for National League football next season. Any basement division bets in the offing this weekend?

@KikoCy, top work on Newcastle. Unfortunate about the BTTS with Huddersfield surprisingly being the pain. @Kenton Schweppes will be equally surprised at them keeping a clean sheet! 

@willie82, what did you bet on the Newport game? Hopefully, you backed a draw or equivalent bet?

@Neubs, any fixtures catching your eye this weekend?

@Thales, you also fell foul of Millwall! Are you hoping for any better luck in certain fixtures this weekend?

@Tiffy, tough game with your boys welcoming Reading this weekend. Very low price on you guys at 1.61 to win. Is it worth it? Reading have only one defeat in their last seven league games... but that defeat was their most recent game!

Also keen to hear the views of regular contributors to this forum such as @Tanktop, @Icongene, @skyblues88, @silverfox, @waynecoyne, @sajtion, and @allthethings.

[Tiffy]

Think I'd leave Brighton's results markets alone for the next 2 games. Maybe a corners bet only. Brighton never seem to have many, and Reading will play a possession based style of football. But will take a look later

[StevieDay1983]

35 minutes ago, Tiffy said:

Think I'd leave Brighton's results markets alone for the next 2 games. Maybe a corners bet only. Brighton never seem to have many, and Reading will play a possession based style of football. But will take a look later

Cheers for that @Tiffy. This is exactly why it's great to have fans of clubs giving us their views. You have a far more informed opinion about your club.

Regarding Cardiff, we almost beat Fulham in the FA Cup with a back up side in one of Warnock's first games. It's going to be tough but I'd be very disappointed if we don't at least draw. Warnock is playing down the play-offs as an impossible task but I can guarantee you in that dressing room they have every intention of trying to gate crashing the play-offs so expect a Cardiff side that is going all guns blazing this weekend.

[canaries91]

3 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

 

@canaries91, you hinted at a possible Millwall let-down. Did you back them in the end? Got any bets lined up this weekend?

I left Millwall alone in the end, thankfully. For me, it was one of those games that looked such an obvious home win, that it was one to avoid as those sort of selections usually let you down. That's my experience anyway!

 

Havent had too much of a detailed look at this weekends games just yet, but I will do. For the Norwich v Ipswich game, Norwich are far too short IMO. We (Norwich) are unbeaten against them in 8(!) games and there is a kind of feeling that they (Ipswich) are due one. Team news is crucial, as I eluded to last week with Norwich. Pinto and Naismith have apparently trained this week and *could* feature but are not definite. Without Pinto, I certainly wouldn't advise anyone of putting money on Norwich.

 

 

[Icongene]

I'd say the value is in Ipswich and given Norwichs poor last result I'd be inclined to skip this one in the fear Ipswich nick a point.

I quite fancy Burton to get the better of Blackburn although that should be a right tight game but with Blackburn losing their manager it could be unpredictable. 

I'll have a look into Luton win also and post an update later.

Edited February 23, 2017 by Icongene

[Tanktop]

 

Fleetwood v Northampton

Fleetwood are bang on form right now, unbeaten in 16 and with only 1 home defeat all season, Northampton have decent away form but not strong enough for the cod army.

http://www.fleetwoodtownfc.com/news/article/2016-17/match-preview-fleetwood-town-northampton-town-3589985.aspx - Fleetwood preview

Fleetwood @ 1.95 

Notts County v Yeovil

Notts are one of a couple of teams that have dagged themselves out of the relegation position with a run of good results and some fight, recent results include a draws with in form Exeter and Mansfield, and with Stead and Ameobi they have experience and firepower. Yeovil have the worst away record in the division with only 2 wins and 6 draws, and are relying on home form not to be dragged into the relegation battle.

Notts County @ 2.30 

Only a brief analysis,kids off school, doing my head in...

[StevieDay1983]

2 hours ago, Icongene said:

I'd say the value is in Ipswich and given Norwichs poor last result I'd be inclined to skip this one in the fear Ipswich nick a point.

I quite fancy Burton to get the better of Blackburn although that should be a right tight game but with Blackburn losing their manager it could be unpredictable. 

I'll have a look into Luton win also and post an update later.

I don't get why Blackburn have sacked Owen Coyle and brought in Tony Mowbray. I think Mowbray plays the better football but he's not the gritty man that the club needs to get them out of trouble. I honestly couldn't tell if Mowbray will start well or not but I wouldn't fancy them this weekend. Burton still have a bit of fight about them.

[canaries91]

2 hours ago, Icongene said:

I'd say the value is in Ipswich and given Norwichs poor last result I'd be inclined to skip this one in the fear Ipswich nick a point.

I quite fancy Burton to get the better of Blackburn although that should be a right tight game but with Blackburn losing their manager it could be unpredictable. 

I'll have a look into Luton win also and post an update later.

I agree. As a fan, I won't be having a bet on the match, but as a neutral I would lean towards Ipswich as the value pick for sure. They have improved under McCarthy recently and are in form.

[Icongene]

As a Celtic fan, I have some frightening memories of Mogga and I don't see him making THAT much of an impact immediately at Blackburn. Coyle has roughly the same experience in the league and struggled to get anything out of the players. I see Blackburn as in a similar predicament to Villa. You could put Mourinho at the helm and they'd still lose most matches as the club is rotten to the core.

Mowbray might keep them up but he's hardly going to be turning trees with that squad.

Edit: Re-Burton, it would seem that Clough committing his future to the club has been a MASSIVE boost to the players who despite a lack of talent are playing out their skin for the manager. Tough team to beat at the moment and I'd fancy them to stay up.

Edited February 23, 2017 by Icongene

[allyhibs]

23 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

@allyhibs, well that was easier than I expected. Not sure about how you felt afterwards? You should follow it up with a solid win at home to Dunfermline right? What about the other games in the Scottish Championship? Any tips for us all south of the border?

By all accounts we murdered them and they were lucky it wasn't 5 or 6. I listened to it from 4am in a hotel room in Hanoi, was told to keep quiet by my neighbours a few times, still celebrating 

I was expecting us to be around 1/4 - 1/5 for the Dunfermline game and can't believe you can get the Hibs win at 4/9 . Maximum stakes for me. 

I've said before I think Morton are the second best team in the league and the odds on them to beat an overrated Dundee Utd screams value. Morton win at 14/5.

And just because Hearts are sh##e and I hate them, Partick win at 19/10 looks a good punt.

[malabgd]

Bohemians FC v Derry City

Bohemians FC (last season): Eoin Wearen (28/0 m), Ismahil Akinade (18/5 f, 2nd top scorer, probably out)

Derry City (last season): Ryan McBride (20/0 d), Aaron Barry (17/1 d) (both probably out)

 

Galway United v Drogheda Utd

Galway United (last season): Ronan Murray (m, newcomer), Conor Melody (17/1 m) (both doubtful), Maurice Nugent (d, newcomer)

Drogheda Utd (last season): Mark Doyle (6/0 f), Marc Griffin (24/4 f), Ryan McEvoy (m, newcomer) (all doubtful), Sean Brennan (23/5 m)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[salmonman]

Think Doncaster are decent odds at 1.80 to win Accrington

[salmonman]

Also Fleetwood  2.10 to beat Northampton at home

[salmonman]

Carlisle at 3.70 looks like a very big price to beat Portsmouth.

[StevieDay1983]

Just been confirmed that Warnock is staying for next season where he will look to have a "real go" at promotion. Expect every game now to be a trial for the current squad. Watch us lose disappointingly hammer Fulham tomorrow! 

[skyblues88]

My bets for this weekend are:

- NEWCASTLE 1/2 -  Newcastle to beat struggling Bristol City at home to keep the pressure on Brighton in their later kick off. 

- BRENTFORD 1/2 - Brentford to see off a poor Rotherham side. Brentford are coming off the back of a good 2-1 win away at Sheffield Wednesday whereas Rotherham have lost 16 out of 17 away league matches. 

- MAN UTD to lift the trophy 2/5 - Man Utd are on fine form. They have only lost once since the 4th November, the second leg away at Hull which they qualified in anyway. I fear for Southampton in central defence. Jose Fonte sold and Virgil Van Dijk ruled out injured. I don't think Yoshida or young Jack Stephens will be able to cope with Zlatan. Having Man Utd to lift the trophy provides a bit of cover if they fail to win in 90 minutes but do it in extra time or penalties. 

 

As for my team Coventry, we have a massive home match with Swindon on Saturday afternoon. If we were to win and results go our way we could be only 6 points off safety with a game in hand, a lot better than before kick off last week where we were 11 points adrift of safety. We still have a mountain to climb but last week was our first league win in 16 games and back to back wins would be a massive confidence boost with 2 big away games to follow (at Bury and in-form Shrewsbury). I can't give anybody a good bet for this game so I will not be touching it. 

[Tiffy]

BRIGHTON V READING

Two massive games coming up. Firstly Reading on Saturday, then Newcastle on Tuesday.

This is a game that Albion will need to win if they want to gain automatic promotion, though the price of 1.66 doesn't hold any appeal. They have been a bit off form recently, and will need to get back to their best in order to beat a good Reading side. I don't think that there will be a lot of goals though, just a gut feeling rather than any statistic.

I do notice though, when I watch games, how few corners there are, especially from Brighton. Does anyone know a decent corner stats website? In the Ipswich game I backed U5 first half goals, which won. I have a feeling that it could be similar here. I fancy a slow burner to start, combined with Readings possession/Dutch style, and Albion lack of corners in general. The away team usually have the most corners.

i have analysed the last 5 home & away games. At the Amex the away sides have won the corner count 3/5, giving a total of 27-31 corners. This includes a 0-10 to Sheff Weds, a game which BRIGHTON went behind, saved a penalty, then had to come back to win 2-1, and yet they didn't gain 1 corner.

Away from the Amex, the home teams have won the corner count 5/5, with a count of 38-22. In the last 5 away league matches, Brighton have never had more corners than their opponents.

So, I think I will go for

UNDER 5 FIRST HALF CORNERS - 1.95

BRIGHTON U 5.5 CORNERS - 2.0 

Good luck

 

 

[Tiffy]

3 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Just been confirmed that Warnock is staying for next season where he will look to have a "real go" at promotion. Expect every game now to be a trial for the current squad. Watch us lose disappointingly hammer Fulham tomorrow! 

That will be a massive boost for the club. I think the Albion fans call him Colin, not sire why!

[Tiffy]

31 minutes ago, skyblues88 said:

My bets for this weekend are:

- NEWCASTLE 1/2 -  Newcastle to beat struggling Bristol City at home to keep the pressure on Brighton in their later kick off. 

- BRENTFORD 1/2 - Brentford to see off a poor Rotherham side. Brentford are coming off the back of a good 2-1 win away at Sheffield Wednesday whereas Rotherham have lost 16 out of 17 away league matches. 

- MAN UTD to lift the trophy 2/5 - Man Utd are on fine form. They have only lost once since the 4th November, the second leg away at Hull which they qualified in anyway. I fear for Southampton in central defence. Jose Fonte sold and Virgil Van Dijk ruled out injured. I don't think Yoshida or young Jack Stephens will be able to cope with Zlatan. Having Man Utd to lift the trophy provides a bit of cover if they fail to win in 90 minutes but do it in extra time or penalties. 

 

As for my team Coventry, we have a massive home match with Swindon on Saturday afternoon. If we were to win and results go our way we could be only 6 points off safety with a game in hand, a lot better than before kick off last week where we were 11 points adrift of safety. We still have a mountain to climb but last week was our first league win in 16 games and back to back wins would be a massive confidence boost with 2 big away games to follow (at Bury and in-form Shrewsbury). I can't give anybody a good bet for this game so I will not be touching it. 

Russell Slade saved Brighton from relegation when we were in L1. He has become a cult hero with the Brighton fans, and he can do the same with you.  He has been around the block and has lots of experience with this sort of situation. Have faith!

[Icongene]

I decided to back CS Burton 1-0 Blackburn @6.00    

Don't see many goals here but think the home side can edge it.

[willie82]

I backed the draw at 4/1 at have time which made me £15 profit after I backed mansfield outright before the game.

 

Oxford look a decent price at evs away to chesterfield. Oxford are flying and are one of the best away teams in the country. Chesterfield don't score many and I just can't see Oxford not scoring. I don't think it will be easier as I think Caldwell has chesterfield more organised and they have been better since he came in but the percentages have to be with Oxford and I would have them shorter than evs given the two respective teams form.

[willie82]

I don't understand why Shewsbury are 9/2 to beat Mk Dons. 6/5 +1 is a great price with the draw on side. Shewsbury are in great form only loosing one of the last 8. Their defense has tightened up a lot since the start of the season and they are not concerning many. Mk dons are struggling to score a lot of goals and although they are not leaking many goals shewsbury are scoring and are the one of the inform teams in the league. I have taken 6/5 shewsbury +1 as I think they will get at least a draw

[Sir Puntalot]

2 hours ago, willie82 said:

I backed the draw at 4/1 at have time which made me £15 profit after I backed mansfield outright before the game.

 

Oxford look a decent price at evs away to chesterfield. Oxford are flying and are one of the best away teams in the country. Chesterfield don't score many and I just can't see Oxford not scoring. I don't think it will be easier as I think Caldwell has chesterfield more organised and they have been better since he came in but the percentages have to be with Oxford and I would have them shorter than evs given the two respective teams form.

Agreed, I've got Oxford Draw No Bet @ 1/2 BetVictor 

[Sir Puntalot]

Colchester to beat an awful Hartlepool looks way too big. The ratings have Hartlepool as hopeless in their last 2 games, and I'm amazed Colchester aren't closer to 1/2 or shorter. 

Colchester Win @ 4/5 BetVictor 

[andrewcalo]

5 hours ago, betcatalog said:

Chelsea whole league has 15 to 25 over 2,5 and 10 to 12 over 2,5 in front of the audience. Swansea has the worst category with 54 goals in 25 games, which receives more than two goals per game average. The defense justifies 19 to 25 over 2,5 and 9 to 12 over 2,5 away.
CHELSEA FC vs SWANSEA CITY @@ +2.50 Over, odds 1.65

@betcatalog

Swansea have changed to a very Defensive-minded manager and only conceded 3 goals in the last three games with him. With the break we've been training hard and I expect us to be even harder to score against. I imagine we will set out to frustrate.

This game is not a safe bet on the over 2.5. BTTS maybe.

 

Edited February 25, 2017 by andrewcalo

[kulikTS]

I'll try to play at Charlton. I look forward to the break. They are firmly at home and their rival happily won with Chersfield (2 goals scored rivals in the ten man). It is also worth noting that rivals Charlton in the last away games they were better than Bury.

[kulikTS]

What do you think about doble HW Doncaster&Brendford ?

 

[StevieDay1983]

7 minutes ago, kulikTS said:

What do you think about doble HW Doncaster&Brendford ?

 

Both Doncaster and Brentford are firm favourites. Rotherham cannot steal a win at the moment and I would not back them to pick up another point away from home this season. Accrington Stanley have only lost one of their last five league games so Doncaster are far from guaranteed the win. That said, Doncaster haven't won in their last four games. I'd probably stay clear of it even though Doncaster will likely grab the win.

[gogetta]

10 hours ago, Sir Puntalot said:

Colchester to beat an awful Hartlepool looks way too big. The ratings have Hartlepool as hopeless in their last 2 games, and I'm amazed Colchester aren't closer to 1/2 or shorter. 

Colchester Win @ 4/5 BetVictor 

Odds tempered by Hartlepool's 1-1 home draw against Plymouth (second in the league) last saturday. This result also indicated the team's improvement under new manager Dave Jones, especially their defensive organization - but the team still lacks quality upfront. Colchester are themselves struggling upfront at the moment but showed defensive grit in Tuesday's 1-0 home win over Wycombe (their first cleansheet in eight games). So, home win  is not a certainty against the rejuvenated visitors. I think Under 2.5 goals offers better value.