Festive Fixtures > Dec 30th - Jan 4th

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

Brace yourselves, everyone! We have an absolutely packed weekend of fixtures coming up. Two sets of games in just the space of a few days.

@andrewcalo, as a Cardiff fan, you might not believe this but I feel for your club's position. We have been there before. It's not looking good. Still time for your position to change but it's a tall order. The longer Bradley stays in the charge the closer you guys are to dropping back into the Championship.

@Pep004, you went with Andrew on the Chelsea draw. I have to admit I thought it would be difficult but thought they'd still win. However, I didn't see such a convincing win with a clean sheet coming! What do you think for these games?

@betcatalog, the Man City game wasn't as tight as you anticipated. What do you think this week? Will the two games close together help or hinder City with their squad depth but lacking a few key players?

@mrclubbie, you tempted to bet on Palace now you've seen them under Allardyce? You were right to doubt they would beat Watford.

@neilovan, loved your thinking behind the Man Utd vs Sunderland bets. Very close to that HT/FT prediction. You thinking of any bets this weekend?

@sajtion, spot on with Everton beating Leicester. I had backed the draw with both teams in poor form so great shout. What are you thinking here?

@Mindfulness, how are you feeling after Allardyce's first game? Think you can get anything from your two games against Arsenal and then Swansea?

@Bobby Vegas, you got the Chelsea score spot on. Think they can get another clean sheet win or even two over the weekend?

@jamiedavies02, are you eyeing up any bets this weekend?

@vasilli07, @immortal--, @Kenton Schweppes, and @Simeon Borisof, are you chaps considering any bets?

Personally, I am keen to get on the Manchester United bandwagon. Jose has really got them clicking now. There are still doubts over the defence but the attacking play is so much better now.

Does anyone have any stats on Jurgen Klopp vs Pep Guardiola head-to-head outcomes? That could be the only way I find a decisive factor in the Liverpool versus Man City betting.

 

[sajtion]

few teams could cause some upsets in this round. i think sunderland, west brom and west ham could very likely claim victories. west brom was very resilient against arsenal and will have a day more to prepare. burnley are solid at home but even so i fancy sunderland and west ham are in good form and may continue a good run. i'd back all teams to win 1-2.

[Mindfulness]

@StevieDay1983, It's a bit early to comment on the Allardyce effect but the first half V Watford was decent enough. We took the foot off the gas in the second half and invited them on too much imo, confidence is still fragile.

Will try and post again later in the week regarding this double card, haven't updated my shortlist yet. Hopefully we can find some valuation errors in 1X2 & AH markets.

[Neubs]

I´ve got also a feeling that Sunderland can grab all 3 Points from Burnley.

Also Swansea against Bournemouth smells like a Over Game here. Swansea in big trouble and for me it´s seems like that Bradley isn´t the right Men for Swansea. They need to win those Home Games, but there Defensive not looks good enough. Also Bournemouth are not a good "parking the bus" team in away games - by conceding 19 Goals ins there Away Games. Both have the quality upfront and the weakness to score 2 or more goals for his own. So Over looks a really good bet. Specially the next Game from Bournemouth is at Home against Arsenal, so if they see any chances in this tough Gamedays to grab points then it´s the game against Swansea, i think.

[andrewcalo]

Funny you should say that Steve my Mum's partner is old school Jack Army and even he was sad to see Cardiff only last one season. I was laughing my head off though lol

It's a much friendlier rivalry these days isn't in - being Welsh is more important in the face of the all English-leagues we're competing in. 

I'll never forget when I was on the coach going to the play off finals seven years ago. We went through Cardiff and as we were exiting there was a massive tapestry hanging from one of the bridges with big black red and blue colours - FUCK OFF YOU JACK BASTARDS written on it lol

Some stats - 

Week   HOME    DRAW    AWAY

10 -       4              2             4

 

11 -       3              3             4

 

12 -       4              3             3

 

13 -       5              3             2

 

14 -       7              1             2

 

15 -       8              2             0

 

16 -       6              1             3

 

17 -       5              1             4

 

18 -       5              1             3       so far - Spurs play Southampton tonight.

 

 

There have been ten no score draws so far this season. There were 28 last season, 31 the season before, 27 the season before that.

0-0 on the Spurs game tonight is 9 to 1. 

I know a few people don't buy into this but it really is all swings and roundabouts - there will definitely be an upswing in draws and it is becoming increasingly likely to happen sooner rather than later - you look at the trends over the last three seasons, it is unheard of to go more than three weeks with so few draws, and also to have so few 0-0's over the last six weeks. 

This might be because there's been more penalties, which in turn is the result of the no pulling in the box rule introduced this season, but I don't think so.

I think we are due a load of draws and at least three nil nils this week.

UPDATE:

Last season there were 17 nil nils and eight 2-2's by this point. The season before 14 nil-nils and 14 2-2's by this point.

So far this season we have had five 2-2's and ten nil nils. And way more 1-1's than average.

UPDATE:

Interestingly, if you add up the nil nils and 1-1's over the last two seasons, there were 34 last season and 33 the season before, and this season there have been 35...so 2 all might be a good shout tonight, as we're three less than usual right now...

Edited December 28, 2016 by andrewcalo
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[StevieDay1983]

4 hours ago, andrewcalo said:

Funny you should say that Steve my Mum's partner is old school Jack Army and even he was sad to see Cardiff only last one season. I was laughing my head off though lol

It's a much friendlier rivalry these days isn't in - being Welsh is more important in the face of the all English-leagues we're competing in. 

I'll never forget when I was on the coach going to the play off finals seven years ago. We went through Cardiff and as we were exiting there was a massive tapestry hanging from one of the bridges with big black red and blue colours - FUCK OFF YOU JACK BASTARDS written on it lol

Hahaha. Yeah, I think it's a rivalry that means different things to different people. For me, I see Swansea as a bit of fun in the league. Someone that adds a bit of spice. If you beat us or are doing better than us then meh. Fair play. However, a few teams I've had bad experiences with. The worst was probably Chelsea in the FA Cup when their fans cornered our family buses and threw flares at a crowd that included my mum and young siblings of friends. Teams like Bristol City and Leeds we also have fierce rivalries with.

However, that said, I know some Swansea fans who would rather die than see Cardiff do well. The same for Cardiff fans. It's a bit narrow-minded. I mean, we were all singing the same songs in France last summer. I can't relate to that sudden shift to a negative stance. As you say, Wales first. Clubs second.

Interesting stats though, Andrew. I think the increase in draws shows how the league is getting tighter and more competitive. Harder to call for the punters but also more difficult for the bookies. Double edged sword.

Onto the matches, Liverpool showed their clinical side again last night. It didn't do much to change my opinion that a score draw against Man City is the most likely outcome. That said, I thought Man City were very average despite their win against Hull. 

[_Ghost_]

Everything points towards goals in the Swansea v Bournemouth game, I've taken Over 2.5 and Over 3.5.

[immortal--]

Aguero to score at any time vs Liverpool @2.05 with bet365, just for fun again...

[Magic0024]

 

Here's some interesting statistical facts about next Premier League games:

There have been over 2 goals in 89% of Manchester City's away matches.

 

Hull have conceded at least 2 goals in 71% of their last 7 matches at home.

 

100% of the last 7 meetings between Swansea and Bournemouth had at least 3 goals scored.

 

[andrewcalo]

3-0 Bournemouth then. Lump on.

[Pep004]

Guys, some of you really likes statistics.  I really dislike those "history games". I mean previous results between two teams. Specially not if key players are not the same, if managers are not the same, maybe even stadium is not the same - who ever played on big stadiums knows that there is big difference to run in defence if stadium is right next to the pitch or 10 meters behind.. It can be somehow additional reason if's a rival match or something, but otherwise.. If you are a player of Swansea, and you sign for Tottenham and you have match against Burnley today, would you mind what was the result of Tottenham and Burnley 4 years ago, when you were playing for Swansea?  

[andrewcalo]

On 12/28/2016, 5:39:49, StevieDay1983 said:

 

[malabgd]

Hull City v Everton FC

Hull City: Abel Hernández (10/1 f), Will Keane (5/0 f), Allan McGregor (0/0 g), Moses Odubajo (0/0 d), Alex Bruce (0/0 d), Brian Lenihan (0/0 d), Greg Luer (0/0 f)

Everton FC: Maarten Stekelenburg (16/0 first goalkeeper), Bryan Oviedo (6/0 d), James McCarthy (7/0 m), Matthew Pennington (0/0 d), Yannick Bolasie (13/1 m), Arouna Kone (3/0 f), Muhamed Bešić (0/0 d)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[neilovan]

On 12/27/2016, 6:51:03, Mindfulness said:

@StevieDay1983, It's a bit early to comment on the Allardyce effect but the first half V Watford was decent enough. We took the foot off the gas in the second half and invited them on too much imo, confidence is still fragile.

Will try and post again later in the week regarding this double card, haven't updated my shortlist yet. Hopefully we can find some valuation errors in 1X2 & AH markets.

Would help if a 32million pound striker could score a penalty.

[neilovan]

One thing I do with bets. When a game could go any way you need to bet smaller amounts and find bigger odds.

A perfect example this weekend is the Burnley v Sunderland game. Merson (Sky) thinks it's 2-0. Lawrenson (BBc) expects 1-2. I think there is nothing between these teams, and have gone 1-1. Sunderland will set up with 8 defenders and 2 or 3 players on the break. They are not going to score many, especially on the road.

So where is the value ? For me I would be going HT draw and full time (Burnley 5.5) or Sunderland 7, instead of Burnley or Sunderland to win, with a small bet.

Similar game Swansea v Bournemouth. I am just not risking money on these games. These teams are streaky and  unpredictable.

One game that really interests me is Arsenal v Palace. Allerdyce has a far better squad at Palace than he had at Sunderland. This squad is miles better. They have attacking players in abundance, and if/when they tighten up their defense they will be a tough nut to crack. Allerdyce will come up with a rock solid, understandable, executable game plan, that could throw up the surprise of the weekend.  I may take a small punt on the HT draw, Crystal Palace win here at 26 to 1 (bet365).

It's such a pity that he was forced out of the England job, because I really believe he could have taken England places. For me Gareth Southgate is just too green and wet behind the ears.

I have something on my site call the Merson challenge. I am taking on Merson and Lawrenson every week. One thing they definitely do better than me is get more exact scores in games. Last week they both had 2 and I had none. That exact score is a sucker-punch bet, that should be avoided.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 30, 2016 by neilovan

[StevieDay1983]

On 29/12/2016, 11:30:18, immortal-- said:

Aguero to score at any time vs Liverpool @2.05 with bet365, just for fun again...

Is Aguero back available for this game? I had it in my head he still had one game left on his suspension. Or am I wrong?

[Pep004]

Fernandinho was out for 3, Aguero for 4, and Fernandinho played in last round, so I thin that Kun is back. But 2,05 to score? No thanks.  

Edited December 30, 2016 by Pep004

[andrewcalo]

LOL I reckon Man U are due for another draw at Old Trafford hahaha

[Pep004]

City +0,25 sounds good to me, but I won't touch it, as match can really goes in either way pretty strongly... I like also West Ham +0,5, and I won't say anything about Chelsea this time.

 

Edited December 30, 2016 by Pep004

[Mindfulness]

4 hours ago, neilovan said:

Would help if a 32million pound striker could score a penalty.

So far this campaign he has a whoscored rating of 7.45, scored 8 goals in 16 matches and won the most aerial duals of any player in the EPL - his value to us is not in question:

https://www.whoscored.com/Players/68312

Should have done better with his penalty V Watford but I guess he's only human.

[betcatalog]

The two teams will give everything to win, have great offensive lines, expect a game with many goals from both sides
LIVERPOOL FC vs MANCHESTER CITY @@ +2.75 Over, odds 1.85

The Manchester United is in constant rise and will not leave a chance to get another win against the weak opponent, to win by more than one goal
MANCHESTER UNITED vs MIDDLESBROUGH FC @@ -1.50 MANCHESTER UNITED, odds 1.92

The fatigue from the constant games will affect the two groups do not expect to have an open game with many goals will go to under 2,5
SOUTHAMPTON FC vs WEST BROMWICH ALBION @@ +2.50 Under, odds 1.73

[Feduloff]

Southampton - West Brom

1.77 ? 
Weird odds here considering it's 8th vs 9th, West Brom have much better chance of taking this than the bookies are giving them.

Southampton with too many injuries, their top goalscorer out, Redmond out too.

West Brom did a good match last day against Arsenal, I think they can get points here and their odds have value.

[Duckets]

I think westbrom can get a draw against southampton, they were a bit unlucky against arsenal. then a double on chelsea and man utd, i dont see stoke or middlesborough getting anything today, they were both poor in their last game

[Duckets]

liverpool and the draw also looks good

[StevieDay1983]

A mixed bag of results for us all so far in this double header long weekend. I will post up the ratings for the next set of fixtures after today's games. Feel free to chime in with some early doors thoughts on Monday's games.

[andrewcalo]

On this tonight 

[sajtion]

lol are you feeling ok? all those teams are tactically attacking teams so i don't know how you came to goalless draws conclusion. 

[Simeon Borisof]

Isn't that money well spent

[StevieDay1983]

3 hours ago, andrewcalo said:

On this tonight 

I think Swansea's poor form is affecting your judgement mate! Don't get me wrong, would love it to come off for you but I can't see it. Would be a bloody boring start to the 2017 Premier League year if you're spot on! Haha.

Edit: Maybe next week? Haha.