pulsar12

Belenenses-Feirense Value on Feirense to win (odds > 4.00) and with possibility of big margin win(look to handicaps also). This Belenenses with the new Coach Silas has been highly volatile (it was already not consistent before, but now is more polarized). Feirense has all squad available, although they have been not so great this season, I have confidence that coach Nuno Manta will bring adequate strategy for this game. The main highlight here is that Belenenses is fragile, and Feirense is capable to capitalize on it. Just remember that Aves win 5-2 in a recent match at Belenenses home, and they are worse than Feirense in my opinion. Maritimo-Guimaraes Guimaraes is facing many troubles at the moment. Got destroyed at home by Braga 0-5, their key MF player Raphinha has injury, the defense was already bad this season should be even worst for this game because DFs Jubal and Pedro Henrique are injured. Is true that Maritimo is not in good form, but I think Guimaraes is much more weakened. Its quite surprising to me that bookies consider Guimaraes as favourite. Maritimo win odds > 2.86 Portimonense-Porto Portimonense plays good aggressive style and is one of the most charming teams to watch in the liga. Porto also has been good lately. However is not so uncommon for them to slip away from home, and they do not deal well with agressive teams. Key defender "Alex Telles" is not available for Porto. One scenario I dont see likely is the draw due to the styles each team play. Porto are favourites to win but not so much. Value on Portimonense win (odds >8 ) Moreirense-Sporting Sporting is given signs of tired team. I think manager does not rotate players well, he even admit it on the last game against Astana facing physical problems shown by key striker "Bas Dost". Yes they are still favorites to win this game against the last on the table Moreirense, but I think people are putting the odds too low. Moreirense have new Coach "Petit" and the tactics he employs against Sporting (and their coach Jorge Jesus) always have been very effective since when Petit was coaching Tondela (you can go lookup those matches Tondela vs Sporting, when Petit was still coaching Tondela). Adding to this that Sporting had a match with Astana on Thursday so the squad will be even more tired. After mixing all of this, I conclude there is value on Moreirense or draw : draw odds > 6; away win odds > 16.

Don't know if they win, Guimaraes has many defensive problems this season. But this match I see there is potential for many goals.

Feirense - Sporting: bet on feirense if they get behind live if odds get high enough (>30 for win; >6 for 1X). sporting will be stronger than the last match since gelson is fit. but beware of feirense!! this team usually adapts very well to opponents by the second half and has been doing great comebacks lately. Benfica - Guimaraes: this match decides the championship if benfica win. i expect a very good match because of all the pressure benfica, and also motivation on guimaraes players to show off. i think benfica will make some mistakes on defense but will also score goals. there is also a possibility of guimaraes snatching a win since they are playing good an winning while benfica players may accuse the pressure due to the importance of the match. my bets will be guimaraes over 1,5 (>4,10) and guimaraes win (>10,5). Porto - Paços: Porto has been inconsistent again. if you get odds over 20 for Paços I think are worth a try.

i also saw the highlights and didnt find anything suspicious. feirense got lucky in getting the win. the penalty hit the post, what is suspicious about this? yes it is strange that the same chinese guys put money on feirense... but i dont believe it was fixed...

apparently there was a big bet from the chinese (again) , but this does not necessarily mean that there is a fix. it can be a simple gamble or money laundering.

I think this is the best value for the week: Guimaraes - Arouca (guima win EH-1 at 1.95): Guimaraes is expected to have full house of fans, and also all players are available. Guima is on a good run of results with 5W, 1D on the last 6 . Arouca cannot count with key player N. Coelho. their away results are very poor with only 1 point on the last 6 games. Also all of their losses away are with more than 1 goal difference (hence why i have gone for EH-1 instead). FT 1-0 - lost

Rio Ave - Moreirense (12/03 18:00 UTC) FT 3-2 This game screams like under 2,5. Both teams struggle to score recently. Also on every head to head match between this two teams, only 1 out of 6 games resulted in over 2,5. No team news to suggest any deviation. So even at 1,44 odds I think it there is some value. Under 2,5 > 1.44 lost Tondela - Sporting (11/03 20:30 UTC) FT 1-4 Sporting still without Adrien, and now without Alan Ruiz (one of the best Sporting performers lately). Tondela is poor team, but their best performances are against top teams. Value is all on Tondela, facing a fragile Sporting. Tondela to win > 9 lost Guimaraes - Estoril FT 3-3 Guimaraes should win this easy. Soares exit to Porto got significant impact on their goal scoring ability but they are now re-gaining momentum. key player Rafael Miranda is also back to available list and should play (probably not the full match). Estoril coach got sacked 2 days ago because of their poor performances. I don't see any other outcome than Guimaraes winning this one, at home, and with great support from their fans. Guimaraes to win > 1.50 lost

Braga - Arouca (04/03 16:00 UTC) FT 3-1Braga win EH-1 > 2.30 WON seems that Arouca has returned to underperforming again, on the last match home match they let a 1-0 lead to become a 1-2 loss against belenenses, and they lost 2-0 against Chaves on the previous away match. The new coach 'M. Machado' may have played a role to this results, since his arrival they lost all two games. Braga has also bad results lately but, they are being unlucky in my opinion. May this game once for all be a win in style for them. Key Arouca player 'N Coelho' (D) is out, but 'Artur'(M) is recovered from injury and will play. For Braga, FWs 'Pedro Santos' is cleared from suspension and and 'Hassan' is recovered from injury, so they will be available. Porto - Nacional (04/03 18:15 UTC) FT 7-0Porto EH-1 > 1.30 WON Should be an easy win for Porto, they are currently on fire with Soares and Nacional has been conceeding many goals away while scoring very few, they are on relegation zone. Feirense - Benfica (04/03 20:30 UTC) FT 0-1Feirense to win > 9.25 LOST This is a tricky match, because Benfica has CL game next week. And I remember that one of the Benfica worst performances this season was before a CL match on the next days. It was a 2-1 defeat against Maritimo. So at this price I think it's worth the risk on Feirense which has 3 W on the last 6 matches at home. Sporting - Guimaraes (05/03 20:15 UTC) FT 1-1Guimaraes to win > 7.00 LOSTThe obvious value here is on Guimaraes with such great odds. Sporting playing weak football at the moment, and on top of that their key player Adrien is not playing because of injury. Even with Adrien playing on last games at home, they struggled to win against Feirense and got very lucky to win against Rio Ave. No reason to believe this time will be different. Guimaraes has been improving again since Marega return.

Moreirense - Boavista (Friday 03/03) Boavista haven't lost away last 6 matches (3W, 3D). Two of those draws were against Benfica (3-3) and Chaves (0-0). To note that Boavista has been improving in general with solid football. Last game against Porto they played good even without their key player Idris (suspended), but he is back for this match. Since January Moreirense has not impressing with disappointing home draws against Estoril and Feirense. AH+0 Boavista > 1.93 (RETURNED) FT 0-0

Estoril - Sporting (25/02/2017, 18:15) Adrien is currently injured and will be out of the field for at least 6 weeks. And even with Adrien on the field on the last match against Rio Ave, Sporting was very lucky to come with a win because Rio Ave had plenty of missed chances. In addition to miss Adrien, another factor against them is the tense climate at the club. Now from Estoril, I was not expecting better results with the new coach, but the truth is that Estoril is improving and they have been unlucky in not getting better results lately. They will go with 2 important players out: Moreira (GK) and Mattheus (M), but even though the odds are good facing a fragile Sporting. Estoril win > 8.25 Estoril over 1,5 goals > 5.00 FT 0-2 Lost, incredible how Estoril looked like a team of retards today.

Maritimo - Sporting Facing the current drama at Sporting the obvious bet goes for Maritimo at that price. Maritimo to win > 5.30 (2-2 FT) Benfica - Tondela Poor Tondela always as been taking points from big clubs, the exception is against Benfica :D. On the last occasions between these two is not that rare Benfica to score plenty on the first half. Benfica EH -2 HT > 5.30 (0-0 HT)

Chaves - Sporting (pt cup, tuesday) There is an enourmous pressure affecting Sporting at the moment. Nobody is happy with the team performances, and the president attitudes also does not help. On the last draw on saturday, just after the game finnishes , president gone straight into the dressroom and had a ranto against the players performance blaming them for the results, with players immediatly not agreeing and responding. This leaked into the media and on the next day, the same players gone to tell on controversial interview on club tv channel saying it was a 'normal' discussion. Its obvious the players are not the ones to blame for the team bad performance. Coach and president are. Chaves worth a try here, facing all the sporting drama. Chaves to win >5.85 (1-0 ft)

Some drama is going on Portuguese football - Referees are under a lot of pressure by the clubs and fans after the losses of Porto and Sporting on last league cup matches. (Benfica was the only one to win). this may have influence on the result of the big club matches this week. Tondela - Arouca (08-Jan) > FT 1-2 Tondela is fragile team at the moment, since their defeat on Nacional. Playing at home against an effective Arouca, I see potential away team to win and by more than one goal. Arouca win > 3.00 Arouca EH-1 > 5.35

Estoril - Benfica (ft 0-1) Estoril has sacked their coach "Fabiano" and hired spanish "Pedro Carmona", which is know for his poor results on Betis (as assistant coach, betis was relegated) and also has few knowledge of portuguese league (. This is also his first time as a main coach). He told to the media that he wants to win Benfica and he wants to win all the league games and go to Europa League... he also said that has been working very hard last days to implement his ideas to the players..... well i think he is rushing too fast and overconfident, so I expect a disorganized and unbalanced Estoril team, so Benfica can make a goalfest on this one. Also, Estoril has some important players unavailable Benfica EH -4 > 8.75 1st half Benfica EH -1 > 3.25 1st half Benfica EH -2 > 7.75 1st half Benfica EH -3 > 15 over 4,5 > 4.25 all lost Rio Ave - Nacional (ft 2-1) Nacional turn around last game from 0-2 to win 3-2 against Tondela, but this was pretty much due to Tondela demerit than anything else. Just look at the way how Nacional goals were scored and you see what I mean... Rio Ave shows much better football than Nacional and should win this. Rio Ave win > 1.86 - won Moreirense - Arouca (ft 1-4) Arouca has been improving lately, I hope to see them reach the past season quality soon. Last match home loss against Rio Ave is misleading, Arouca did well on the match. Arouca win > 3.50 - won

Boavista - Guimaraes Boavista still has 2 major elements suspended (Henrique and Idris), and this team is much weaker without Idris. Guimares has Moussa Marega back, the league top scorer and most lethal player on counters. Guimaraes EH-1 > 3.75 - lost Guimaraes EH-2 > 8.00 - lost FT 1-2