harry_rag

That’s not even a limit, that’s “make hay while the sun shines”.
@four-leaf is being genuinely limited. 

No offence. My answer was bad too! Im not here to promote myself. Im here trying to find something useful to help the community. Fight the bookers is my objective. Not fighting my comrades! Have a nice day!

Firstly, apologies for any offence. I feel I made a fair comment to illustrate the point that there were various ways to interpret a small number of results and you should be wary of being too quick to draw a favourable conclusion. Let’s see how things look with a decent sample size.
Secondly, your criticism is well wide of the mark as I’ve posted plenty of long running threads in systems and strategy (with varying degrees of success) including the current anytime goalscorer system which is very much all my own work and has been going for 5 months and over 300 bets. I also tracked every single bet I posted on here last year and returned over 2000 points profit.
I took over the thread posting the KP tips years ago and continue to do it as there’s a degree of demand, I don’t claim any credit for the results. I suspect I at least match you in terms of the extent of my own endeavours to find ways to beat the bookies.
Don't mistake taking an interest and constructive criticism for a desire to see you fail. Your system obviously takes a very different view to the bookies on a lot of games and it will be interesting to see if that helps you gain an edge of any sort in the long term. Football is a game of relatively few goals and small winning margins though so I wouldn’t bother looking too closely at each individual result for a favourable interpretation.

Level on cards shown so a push this week.
19-10 and 4 pushes for a 6.977 point profit so far with an ROI of +21.47%

2 winners from 12 since the last update (Mertens and Kramaric).
105 winners from 328 bets (32.01%) for a loss of 62.43 points.

Level on cards shown so a push this week.
19-10 and 4 pushes for a 6.977 point profit so far with an ROI of +21.47%

Because he was a bit chilly? 

Firstly, apologies for any offence. I feel I made a fair comment to illustrate the point that there were various ways to interpret a small number of results and you should be wary of being too quick to draw a favourable conclusion. Let’s see how things look with a decent sample size.
Secondly, your criticism is well wide of the mark as I’ve posted plenty of long running threads in systems and strategy (with varying degrees of success) including the current anytime goalscorer system which is very much all my own work and has been going for 5 months and over 300 bets. I also tracked every single bet I posted on here last year and returned over 2000 points profit.
I took over the thread posting the KP tips years ago and continue to do it as there’s a degree of demand, I don’t claim any credit for the results. I suspect I at least match you in terms of the extent of my own endeavours to find ways to beat the bookies.
Don't mistake taking an interest and constructive criticism for a desire to see you fail. Your system obviously takes a very different view to the bookies on a lot of games and it will be interesting to see if that helps you gain an edge of any sort in the long term. Football is a game of relatively few goals and small winning margins though so I wouldn’t bother looking too closely at each individual result for a favourable interpretation.

Firstly, apologies for any offence. I feel I made a fair comment to illustrate the point that there were various ways to interpret a small number of results and you should be wary of being too quick to draw a favourable conclusion. Let’s see how things look with a decent sample size.
Secondly, your criticism is well wide of the mark as I’ve posted plenty of long running threads in systems and strategy (with varying degrees of success) including the current anytime goalscorer system which is very much all my own work and has been going for 5 months and over 300 bets. I also tracked every single bet I posted on here last year and returned over 2000 points profit.
I took over the thread posting the KP tips years ago and continue to do it as there’s a degree of demand, I don’t claim any credit for the results. I suspect I at least match you in terms of the extent of my own endeavours to find ways to beat the bookies.
Don't mistake taking an interest and constructive criticism for a desire to see you fail. Your system obviously takes a very different view to the bookies on a lot of games and it will be interesting to see if that helps you gain an edge of any sort in the long term. Football is a game of relatively few goals and small winning margins though so I wouldn’t bother looking too closely at each individual result for a favourable interpretation.

Firstly, apologies for any offence. I feel I made a fair comment to illustrate the point that there were various ways to interpret a small number of results and you should be wary of being too quick to draw a favourable conclusion. Let’s see how things look with a decent sample size.
Secondly, your criticism is well wide of the mark as I’ve posted plenty of long running threads in systems and strategy (with varying degrees of success) including the current anytime goalscorer system which is very much all my own work and has been going for 5 months and over 300 bets. I also tracked every single bet I posted on here last year and returned over 2000 points profit.
I took over the thread posting the KP tips years ago and continue to do it as there’s a degree of demand, I don’t claim any credit for the results. I suspect I at least match you in terms of the extent of my own endeavours to find ways to beat the bookies.
Don't mistake taking an interest and constructive criticism for a desire to see you fail. Your system obviously takes a very different view to the bookies on a lot of games and it will be interesting to see if that helps you gain an edge of any sort in the long term. Football is a game of relatively few goals and small winning margins though so I wouldn’t bother looking too closely at each individual result for a favourable interpretation.

At least i try to develope things on my own. You copy and past the bets of other guy?...easy life and with time to criticize the effort of other people. You are here like a vampire! Begging to see others fail, are you working for the bookies? 
Get a life!

Because he was a bit chilly? 

Well. Arnaus wins for me, so good little win. 
Plessis also places for small profit. 
 
Unfortunately couple of otherd that finished high were only 6 places. 

Superb final round from Arnaus there for you @fd1972uk well done indeed pal ?

You are seeing things differently than I am. if the booker gives a probability of an event happening and so do I, that's all that matters. The model follows a theory of value. When the model says for example that team A has a 52% win and team B has a 48% chance. It's suggesting that it's going to be a balanced game, where any result can happen! Even the draw. It's up to the bettor to analyze the booker's odds and see where the value is! I don't care if the booker divides the percentages by the tie! what matters is that the model gives a 48% chance for mallorca and the booker pays 9.50! The booker says that the game will be unbalanced and that's why he pays Mallorca a lot and the model says it will be a balanced game where any result can happen. According to the winning % of both teams, in this game a draw is also a value bet. Since the model suggests a balanced game, with a high probability of succeeding and the booker pays 5.60! The richness of the model is in the interpretation and the existing value based on the odds offered by the bookmaker.

Geez, that was some score today.  Hopefully you don't give up on glory hunts ??

They are giving 7% as a chance of win. Im giving 26%. Those are winning chances, not draw!

When you compare the bookies 7% to your 26% that seems to ignore the fact that the bookies will have priced the draw as well. Given that your % for each game adds up to 100%, what about the chance of a draw. It feels like you’re not comparing like with like.

Motherwell +0 Asian handicap cards v Dundee U, 1pt at 1.875 with 365

Well you've perhaps been fortunate. Show any signs of being shrewd on a particular sport and you can expect to be limited and probably more severely than BF have done so far. BF/PP are notorious for having an itchy trigger finger when it comes to that sort of thing. Having the guarantee of being able to get as much as 250 on with any firm would be fantastic and, while it may seem restrictive to you, I'd make the most of it while it lasts.
Being limited to staking the cost of a cup of coffee or even less is what you can really call being restricted. I'd see if there's any way you can find of betting on the exchange if I were you.

unibet never limited me, I ve bet up to 2k euros no problem. For me 250 is a huge limit.

Punchestown : Tout Est Permis 4th @ 11\2 R4, Blue Lord 1st @ 11\2 R4 55p
Punchestown
15.40 Jigginstown King @ 10\1  1/5 1-3
16.15 French Dynamite @ 13\2  1/5 1-4
16.50 Scarlet and Dove @ 4\1  1/4 1-2
17.25 Teahupoo @ 12\1  1/4 1-2
18.00 Flame Bearer @ 4\1  1/4 1-2
18.35 Dorking Cock @ 12\1  1/4 1-2
19.10 Bring On the Night @ 5\1  1/5 1-3
19.45 Golden Wonders @ 5\1  1/5 1-4

 

A couple of people already up with their selections for this in the "2022" thread. I don't think we've quite nailed the best approach for posting selections yet in terms of the timing of you starting a thread and the scope of it (if it only covers the US event then people end up splitting their selections across 2 different threads). My suggestion would be a single thread for each week; this week's could be titled something like "Golf tips w/c 28th April - Mexican Open etc." You could put threads up for the next 2 or 3 weeks in advance then just add another week each week if that makes sense (so we are always a few weeks ahead in terms of a thread being there). A bit like things seem to be done in the tennis section.
I think one weekly thread started far enough in advance is the best way to go, so people can put all their bets in a single place. be interested to see what the regulars think given that I'm only an occasional poster and you've only just starting to focus on this section:
@Xtc12 @MinellaWorksop @fd1972uk @Johnrobertson @Torque @owenclass
It just feels a bit scrappy at the moment.

Quite a weak field, this one. Lots of water dangers. Not alot of info to go on with this being a new tournament on the PGA Tour. I'm going with the following :
1.5pts e/w Woodland 20/1 bet365 (5 places, 1/4th)
1.5pts e/w Wise 22/1 Boylesports (10 places, 1/5th) 
1pt e/w Champ 33/1 paddypower (8 places, 1/5th)
0.5pts e/w Clark 66/1 paddypower (8 places, 1/5th)
Outsiders
0.25pts e/w Lee 80/1 paddypower (8 places, 1/5th)
0.25pts e/w Wu 100/1 willhill (8 places, 1/5th)
0.25pts e/w C.Tarren 150/1 paddypower (8 places, 1/5th)
0.25pts e/w Van Der Walt 500/1 paddypower (8 places, 1/5th)
 

Punchestown : Mighty Potter 1st @ 20\1, Vadsa Queen 2nd @ 6\1 
Punchestown
15.40 Life In the Park @ 15\2  1/5 1-6
16.15 IA Connect @ 5\1  1/5 1-3
16.45 Gibraltar @ 6\1  1/5 1-3
17.55 Clan Des Obeaux @ 11\2  1/5 1-3
18.30 Redemption Day @ 9\1  1/5 1-3
19.05 Fancy Foundations @ 8\1  1/5 1-4