harry_rag Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 A single thread for all selections whether my own or following others. The previous approach was getting a bit too time consuming and I also wanted to revise the staking approach. A reminder of the staking plan; I'll continue to track to 10% of bank (10 points minimum) and 10 point level stakes. 100 point starting bank - I'm staking £1 per point (real money) on all selections posted in this thread. 5 "juggernauts" head out on the road, each laden with 10% of the starting bank (so day 1 stake is 10 points for a "maximum" of 5 bets per day)* Assuming 5 bets and they all win, next day's stake is total return divided by 5 (so rolling over the stakes equally) If less than 5 bets on any day the next day's stake is total return plus the unused stakes divided by 5 If a bet loses, that "wagon" is reloaded with another 10% of the starting bank from the "depot". The next day's stake is total return plus the reload amount divided by 5 After 5 losing bets there can be no further reloads so the next day's stake would be total return divided by 4 and the "maximum" number of bets reduced to 4* How long does this go on for? The aim is to achieve 10% growth in the initial bank (i.e. at that point the fleet returns to the depot to unload then goes out again with 10% of the revised bank). I've decided that the original target of 25% was over-ambitious. * Maximum is discretionary; there will be no more than that number of bets in play at the same time and the number won't be exceeded if there has been a losing bet that day. hagis and vikki37 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 7, 2022 Author Share Posted March 7, 2022 Bet 1: 10 points on both teams to be shown a card in A Bilbao v Levante at 1/12 with 365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 7, 2022 Author Share Posted March 7, 2022 Bet 2: 10 points on >0.5 goals in A Bilbao v Levante at 1.08 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 7, 2022 Author Share Posted March 7, 2022 Bet 3: 10 points on Huddersfield +4 v Forest at 1/40 with Lads Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 8, 2022 Author Share Posted March 8, 2022 3 out of 3 so far, next stake will be 10.37 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 8, 2022 Author Share Posted March 8, 2022 Bet 4: 10.37 points on Liverpool +2 v Inter at 1.02 It's skinny but I don't see Liverpool blowing it to that extent. Hopefully we get the Inter that went 4 games without scoring rather than the one that scored 5 last time out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 8, 2022 Author Share Posted March 8, 2022 Bet 5: 10.37 points on >0.5 goals in Sheff U v Boro at 1.09 Bet 6: 10.37 points on >0,5 goals in Bournemouth v Peterborough at 1.04 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 8, 2022 Author Share Posted March 8, 2022 Bet 7: 10.37 points on >0,5 goals in Bayern v RBS at 1.02 Was really hoping for an extra tick in this one but couldn't let it go begging. Just can't see it being goalless (he said, recklessly tempting fate). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 9, 2022 Author Share Posted March 9, 2022 7 out of 7 so far, next stake is 10.72 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 9, 2022 Author Share Posted March 9, 2022 Bet 8: 11 points* on each team being shown a card in R Madrid v PSG at 1.0873 with PP (via bet builder) Just beats the 1/12 on offer with 365, hard to see both teams not drawing at least one card in this game. *I've opted for rounding the stakes for non-exchange bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 9, 2022 Author Share Posted March 9, 2022 Bet 9: 10.72 points on Betis +3 at 1.03 v E Frankfurt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 9, 2022 Author Share Posted March 9, 2022 Bet 10: 10.72 points on >1.5 goals in Man C v Sporting at 1.16 Trying to cut down on bets at such “outlier” prices but think we might see plenty of attacking given the score after the 1st leg. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 9, 2022 Author Share Posted March 9, 2022 2 hours ago, harry_rag said: Bet 10: 10.72 points on >1.5 goals in Man C v Sporting at 1.16 Trying to cut down on bets at such “outlier” prices but think we might see plenty of attacking given the score after the 1st leg. Might as well be hung for a sheep as a lamb! Will reload and update tomorrow. aldric 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 9 from 10 so the first reload is required, next stake is 10.83 points. 5.85 points down (5.44 to 10% stakes and 5.3 to 10 points level). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 Bet 11 (1): 10.83 points on >0.5 goals in Slavia Prague v LASK Linz at 1.09 monty63 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 Bet 12 (2): 10.83 points on Sevilla +3 v West Ham at 1.02 Bet 13 (3): 10.83 points on >0.5 goals in V Arnhem v Roma at 1.07 monty63 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 Bet 14 (4): 10.83 points on >0.5 goals in Bodo Glimt v AZ Alkmaar at 1.09 monty63 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 4 winners yesterday, next stake is 11.4 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 Bet 15 (5): 12 points on Cadiz +5 v A Madrid at 1/40 with Lads I expect Atletico to win but not by a huge margin. Feels like an unappealing game for >0.5 at the available prices. I'm very surprised to see a +5 handicap on offer at anything better than 1.01. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 Bet 16 (6): 12 points on France to score 10+ points v Wales at 1/33 with 365 There was a time when this might have been closer to a coin toss proposition but, on current form, I find it inconceivable that France will fall this far short of the 28 or so points the markets are predicting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 Bet 17 (7): 11.4 points on Huddersfield +3 v West Brom at 1.11 I'm a bit surprised at how favoured West Brom are and I can't see them winning by 3 or more goals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 12, 2022 Author Share Posted March 12, 2022 Bet 18 (8): 11.78 points on >0.5 goals in Barnsley v Fulham at 1.06 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 12, 2022 Author Share Posted March 12, 2022 Bet 19 (9): 11.78 points on >0.5 goals in Sunderland v Crewe at 1.05 Bet 20 (10): 11.78 points on >0.5 goals in Forest Green v Bradford at 1.07 Bet 21 (11): 11.78 points on >0.5 goals in Kelty Hearts v Albion at 1.05 First day where I've been more of a scavenger than an originator today! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 13, 2022 Author Share Posted March 13, 2022 4 out of 4 yesterday and back in front. Next stake 12.31 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monty63 Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 1 minute ago, harry_rag said: 4 out of 4 yesterday and back in front. Next stake 12.31 points. well done in profit harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 13, 2022 Author Share Posted March 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, monty63 said: well done in profit Cheers, be nice to actually hit the 10% growth target so I can bank a bit. Not got that far yet (well, managed 10% but when the target was 25% on the other threads). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monty63 Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 what's the old saying "slowly slowly catch a monkey" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 13, 2022 Author Share Posted March 13, 2022 Bet 22 (12): 12.31 points on >0.5 goals in Verona v Napoli at 1.08 Bet 23 (13): 12.31 points on >0.5 goals in Chelsea v Newcastle at 1.06 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 14, 2022 Author Share Posted March 14, 2022 Both bets won yesterday, next stake 12.65 points (give or take any rounding off). Bet 24: (14): 13 points on both teams shown a card in Galatasaray v Besiktas at 1/20 Hills Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 15, 2022 Author Share Posted March 15, 2022 A winner yesterday, next stake 12.78 points. Bet 25: (15): 13 points on both teams shown a card in Ajax v Benfica at 1/8 with 365 Surprised to get such a "big" price, 1/14 and 1/25 elsewhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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