Anytime Goalscorer System

[harry_rag]

Following on from the "...experiment" thread, I'll be giving this a try. Criteria as follows.

• Players whose goal minutes are quoted between 20 and 35 by the spread firms (so fairly likely scorers but not your "super strikers" who will be always long odds on)
• Only back where my target odds are met (my assessment of true odds +10% edge)
• Don't back any selections where the best bookies price is >3.2 (probably filters out less than 10% of the potential selections but improves strike rate and ROI based on sample)
• Most bets will be on BF but there may be examples where the best acceptable price is with a bookie (BF unless stated otherwise)
• Selections will be posted right up to the off to allow maximum time to get matched (the market usually operates in running as well)
• Stake 10 points per bet. No bank as such, will keep P/L and review as I go.

[harry_rag]

Bologna v Roma: 10 points on Arnautovic at 9/4 Hills

As I type I think "breaches the >3.2 rule" but I'm taking it as it's an enhanced odds price rather than the regular OC price. I'm going to base the criteria on what I can see from the odds comparison and if a bookies is doing a special boost it's akin to getting matched higher on BF. (Hills quote just 8/5 on OC.)

[harry_rag]

7:30 Prem games.

10 points on Jimenez (Wolves) at 19/10 Lads

10 points on Antonio (West Ham) at 3.05

10 points on Pulisic (Chelsea) at 3.26

4.3 points on Havertz (Chelsea) at 2.8

2.46 points on Vardy (Leicester) at 3.05

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10 points on 3 Man C players: Mahrez at 3.048 (Uni), Sterling at 3.2 and Jesus at 3.18.

10 on Mane (Liverpool) at 2.7.

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Well a spectacular start there with all 10 selections losing! 

Something like a 60/1 shot at the stated odds and an unwelcome bit of deja vu (when I started gathering the original data it was the 16th selection that scored the first goal). The first time the "back" odds were showing a profit was after the 66th selection.

0 from 10 and -86.76 points.

[harry_rag]

Man U v Arsenal: 10 points each on Ronaldo at 2.36 and Aubameyang at 3.4.

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Ronaldo breaks the thread's duck, small profit yesterday but still 83.43 points down after 12 bets.

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U Berlin v RB Leipzig: 10 points on A Silva at 21/10 Lads (3.1 on BF but would be less commission)

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A loser yesterday, 2 for Milan v Salernitana.

10 points each on Leao at 2.74 and Pellegri at 3.3

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10 points each on Wood (Burnley) at 3.05, Mane (Liverpool) at 2.8 and Coutinho (Barcelona) at 3.15

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0 from 5 and -50 points yesterday. 

Not much doing today but just been partially matched for 6.95 points on Marti for Levante v Osasuna at 3.3

[harry_rag]

Well, a poor start with just one winner from 19 bets! -153.38 points so far.

I'd have done better had I been matched on every selection but still loss making as the strike rate has dropped so far since the start of the month. Let's press on a little longer.

[harry_rag]

10 points on Lacazette at 3.05 (for Arsenal v Everton).

[harry_rag]

Loser yesterday.

10 points on Mahrez (Man C) at 21/10 Lads

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10 points on Salah at 2.8 (Liverpool) and 10 on Jovic (R Madrid) at 3,25

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2 out of 3 yesterday (Mahrez and Salah) so now 3 winners from 23 bets and -134.74 points.

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10 points on Depay (Barcelona) at 21/10 Uni

10 points on Greenwood (Man U) at 2.84

10 points on Pizzi (Benfica) at 3.1

Will post if any more get matched.

[harry_rag]

1 from 3 yesterday (Greenwood) for a small loss. 4 winners from 26 bets and -136.71 points.

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10 points each on Lacazette (Arsenal) at 2.48 and Mane (Liverpool) at 2.3.

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And 10 on Havertz at 3.05.

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1 from 3 again yesterday (Lacazette) for a loss on the day. 5 winners from 29 bets and -142.21 points.

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Roma v Spezia: 10 points on Abraham at 2.28

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Maybe if I comment on how badly this is going I'll moan a couple of winners home! 

Norwich v Villa: 10 points each on Pukki at 3.1 and Watkins at 3.2

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For Man City, 10 points each on Mahrez at 7/5 with Lads, De Bruyne at 3.25 and Silva at 3.1

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3 out of 5 last night, update tomorrow,

10 points on Turnbull (Celtic) at 9/5 PP.

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And 10 points on Lacazette (Arsenal) at 2.88

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3 from 8 since the last update (Watkins, Mahrez and De Bruyne) for a small net profit. 8 winners from 37 bets and -134.6 points.

[harry_rag]

10 points on Grant (West Brom) at 3.15

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Loser last night. 10 points each on Lacazette (Arsenal) at 2.8 on BF and Dembele (Barcelona) at 2.89 with Uni.

[harry_rag]

0 from 3 since the last update for a 30 point loss. 8 winners from 40 bets and -164.6 points.