Jump to content
Attention, PL Members! To reinforce security on the forum, we have updated our login process. Please note that you will now need to use your email address to sign in, rather than your forum username. We appreciate your understanding and cooperation.

Anytime Goalscorer System

Recommended Posts

Following on from the "...experiment" thread, I'll be giving this a try. Criteria as follows.

  • Players whose goal minutes are quoted between 20 and 35 by the spread firms (so fairly likely scorers but not your "super strikers" who will be always long odds on)
  • Only back where my target odds are met (my assessment of true odds +10% edge)
  • Don't back any selections where the best bookies price is >3.2 (probably filters out less than 10% of the potential selections but improves strike rate and ROI based on sample)
  • Most bets will be on BF but there may be examples where the best acceptable price is with a bookie (BF unless stated otherwise)
  • Selections will be posted right up to the off to allow maximum time to get matched (the market usually operates in running as well)
  • Stake 10 points per bet. No bank as such, will keep P/L and review as I go.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bologna v Roma: 10 points on Arnautovic at 9/4 Hills

As I type I think "breaches the >3.2 rule" but I'm taking it as it's an enhanced odds price rather than the regular OC price. I'm going to base the criteria on what I can see from the odds comparison and if a bookies is doing a special boost it's akin to getting matched higher on BF. (Hills quote just 8/5 on OC.)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well a spectacular start there with all 10 selections losing! :lol

Something like a 60/1 shot at the stated odds and an unwelcome bit of deja vu (when I started gathering the original data it was the 16th selection that scored the first goal). The first time the "back" odds were showing a profit was after the 66th selection.

0 from 10 and -86.76 points.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Create New...