harry_rag Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 Following on from the "...experiment" thread, I'll be giving this a try. Criteria as follows. Players whose goal minutes are quoted between 20 and 35 by the spread firms (so fairly likely scorers but not your "super strikers" who will be always long odds on) Only back where my target odds are met (my assessment of true odds +10% edge) Don't back any selections where the best bookies price is >3.2 (probably filters out less than 10% of the potential selections but improves strike rate and ROI based on sample) Most bets will be on BF but there may be examples where the best acceptable price is with a bookie (BF unless stated otherwise) Selections will be posted right up to the off to allow maximum time to get matched (the market usually operates in running as well) Stake 10 points per bet. No bank as such, will keep P/L and review as I go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 1, 2021 Author Share Posted December 1, 2021 Bologna v Roma: 10 points on Arnautovic at 9/4 Hills As I type I think "breaches the >3.2 rule" but I'm taking it as it's an enhanced odds price rather than the regular OC price. I'm going to base the criteria on what I can see from the odds comparison and if a bookies is doing a special boost it's akin to getting matched higher on BF. (Hills quote just 8/5 on OC.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 1, 2021 Author Share Posted December 1, 2021 7:30 Prem games. 10 points on Jimenez (Wolves) at 19/10 Lads 10 points on Antonio (West Ham) at 3.05 10 points on Pulisic (Chelsea) at 3.26 4.3 points on Havertz (Chelsea) at 2.8 2.46 points on Vardy (Leicester) at 3.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 1, 2021 Author Share Posted December 1, 2021 10 points on 3 Man C players: Mahrez at 3.048 (Uni), Sterling at 3.2 and Jesus at 3.18. 10 on Mane (Liverpool) at 2.7. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 Well a spectacular start there with all 10 selections losing! Something like a 60/1 shot at the stated odds and an unwelcome bit of deja vu (when I started gathering the original data it was the 16th selection that scored the first goal). The first time the "back" odds were showing a profit was after the 66th selection. 0 from 10 and -86.76 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 Man U v Arsenal: 10 points each on Ronaldo at 2.36 and Aubameyang at 3.4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 Ronaldo breaks the thread's duck, small profit yesterday but still 83.43 points down after 12 bets. alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 U Berlin v RB Leipzig: 10 points on A Silva at 21/10 Lads (3.1 on BF but would be less commission) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 4, 2021 Author Share Posted December 4, 2021 A loser yesterday, 2 for Milan v Salernitana. 10 points each on Leao at 2.74 and Pellegri at 3.3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 4, 2021 Author Share Posted December 4, 2021 10 points each on Wood (Burnley) at 3.05, Mane (Liverpool) at 2.8 and Coutinho (Barcelona) at 3.15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 5, 2021 Author Share Posted December 5, 2021 0 from 5 and -50 points yesterday. Not much doing today but just been partially matched for 6.95 points on Marti for Levante v Osasuna at 3.3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 6, 2021 Author Share Posted December 6, 2021 Well, a poor start with just one winner from 19 bets! -153.38 points so far. I'd have done better had I been matched on every selection but still loss making as the strike rate has dropped so far since the start of the month. Let's press on a little longer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 6, 2021 Author Share Posted December 6, 2021 10 points on Lacazette at 3.05 (for Arsenal v Everton). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 7, 2021 Author Share Posted December 7, 2021 Loser yesterday. 10 points on Mahrez (Man C) at 21/10 Lads Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 7, 2021 Author Share Posted December 7, 2021 10 points on Salah at 2.8 (Liverpool) and 10 on Jovic (R Madrid) at 3,25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 8, 2021 Author Share Posted December 8, 2021 2 out of 3 yesterday (Mahrez and Salah) so now 3 winners from 23 bets and -134.74 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 8, 2021 Author Share Posted December 8, 2021 10 points on Depay (Barcelona) at 21/10 Uni 10 points on Greenwood (Man U) at 2.84 10 points on Pizzi (Benfica) at 3.1 Will post if any more get matched. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 9, 2021 Author Share Posted December 9, 2021 1 from 3 yesterday (Greenwood) for a small loss. 4 winners from 26 bets and -136.71 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 11, 2021 Author Share Posted December 11, 2021 10 points each on Lacazette (Arsenal) at 2.48 and Mane (Liverpool) at 2.3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 11, 2021 Author Share Posted December 11, 2021 And 10 on Havertz at 3.05. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 12, 2021 Author Share Posted December 12, 2021 1 from 3 again yesterday (Lacazette) for a loss on the day. 5 winners from 29 bets and -142.21 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 Roma v Spezia: 10 points on Abraham at 2.28 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 14, 2021 Author Share Posted December 14, 2021 Maybe if I comment on how badly this is going I'll moan a couple of winners home! Norwich v Villa: 10 points each on Pukki at 3.1 and Watkins at 3.2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 14, 2021 Author Share Posted December 14, 2021 For Man City, 10 points each on Mahrez at 7/5 with Lads, De Bruyne at 3.25 and Silva at 3.1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 3 out of 5 last night, update tomorrow, 10 points on Turnbull (Celtic) at 9/5 PP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 And 10 points on Lacazette (Arsenal) at 2.88 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 3 from 8 since the last update (Watkins, Mahrez and De Bruyne) for a small net profit. 8 winners from 37 bets and -134.6 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 10 points on Grant (West Brom) at 3.15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 18, 2021 Author Share Posted December 18, 2021 Loser last night. 10 points each on Lacazette (Arsenal) at 2.8 on BF and Dembele (Barcelona) at 2.89 with Uni. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 19, 2021 Author Share Posted December 19, 2021 0 from 3 since the last update for a 30 point loss. 8 winners from 40 bets and -164.6 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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