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Anytime Goalscorer System


harry_rag
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Following on from the "...experiment" thread, I'll be giving this a try. Criteria as follows.

  • Players whose goal minutes are quoted between 20 and 35 by the spread firms (so fairly likely scorers but not your "super strikers" who will be always long odds on)
  • Only back where my target odds are met (my assessment of true odds +10% edge)
  • Don't back any selections where the best bookies price is >3.2 (probably filters out less than 10% of the potential selections but improves strike rate and ROI based on sample)
  • Most bets will be on BF but there may be examples where the best acceptable price is with a bookie (BF unless stated otherwise)
  • Selections will be posted right up to the off to allow maximum time to get matched (the market usually operates in running as well)
  • Stake 10 points per bet. No bank as such, will keep P/L and review as I go.
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Bologna v Roma: 10 points on Arnautovic at 9/4 Hills

As I type I think "breaches the >3.2 rule" but I'm taking it as it's an enhanced odds price rather than the regular OC price. I'm going to base the criteria on what I can see from the odds comparison and if a bookies is doing a special boost it's akin to getting matched higher on BF. (Hills quote just 8/5 on OC.)

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Well a spectacular start there with all 10 selections losing! :lol

Something like a 60/1 shot at the stated odds and an unwelcome bit of deja vu (when I started gathering the original data it was the 16th selection that scored the first goal). The first time the "back" odds were showing a profit was after the 66th selection.

0 from 10 and -86.76 points.

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Well, a poor start with just one winner from 19 bets! -153.38 points so far.

I'd have done better had I been matched on every selection but still loss making as the strike rate has dropped so far since the start of the month. Let's press on a little longer.

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