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The league table lie??

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Im tired of developing systems based on cold stats! My conclusion is that the league table lie.

Many times the clubs on the top of the league are not the best playing football. Lots of times we assist true surprises. Clubs at the bottom beating the best ones! I suppose some lucky is intrinsic to the game. But the majority of times, the club who lost is not the better playing. So i develope some principles and a formula to rank the teams! 

1) football is moment. I don't care about games played far ago.

2) the league table lie!

3) i don't care about the results, they lie too!

4) i only care about the level of play, how good they are, independent of the final result.

5) i develope a formula that calculate the level of play

I don't put here picks. Only % of win.

So, here are the games for tomorrow:




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The bookers fail a lot when they publish the odds!  They give 14.00 to furth? This is equivalent to 7% of probabilities of win!!! Too low! My model give then 26%=3.85. This is more in accord with the final result(1-1).

Sevilla vs cadiz.

The bookers give 6.50 to cadiz. How is this possible? My formula that calculate the level of play of a team say than cadiz is playing better than sevilla in this period of the season. 62%=1.61. More close to the final result (1-1) of the game. The 6.50 the booker gives equal to only 15% of a probability of winning!!!

Strasbourg vs psg.

My model tell me that this will be a close game. With 46% for strasbourg and 56% for psg. The bookers give 3.60 to strasbourg, only 28% of a chance for a positive result! The game finish with a tie!

Utrecht vs nijmegen

My model tell that this will be a close game too

 And it was right. The final result was 1-0. Here the booker were more close of reality than my model. 

Famalicao vs estoril. Estoril saw a red card early in the game, transforming the game to his end. So i don't say nothing here! My model give a good chance for estoril win. They were playing better than famalicao. But the red card was to heavy for them!

Qpr vs sheff. Utd

Nothing new here. My model and the bookers give a clear chance of winning for the away team!.

Not bad for the model that tries to prove that the level of play is more important than the final result! Lets continue. This is a work in progress...




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Nice day! The model beats the bookie today. Only one game finish with a draw. I never look to the odds or the results or the table or the points! I only use the formula to evaluate the level of play of each team. 




Edited by iroquois
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Sunday forecast

Some interesting stuff here!

Barcelona vs mallorca. My model predicts a close game here (52%-48%). The bookers don't think so, they give 9.50 to mallorca. Clearly they think differently! Let's see what happens...9.50 is an amazing odd. Even the X2 here is a value option!

Sittard vs feyernoord is another game who have a big discrepancy between my model and the bookers. My model predict for this game 49% of win for sittard and 51% for feyernoord...

The bookers are giving 6.75 to sittard, a huge value here!



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@iroquois hope you have something going here with your model but as @harry_rag  says you cannot compare it to the bookies odds as they have factored in the draw to their odds.

Looking at your games today I would say that your model fancies R.Sociedad @ 2.63 and Osasuna @ 2.75 which would not be a bad double. The Barcelona game and Feyenoord I would say that your model says it will be a draw, but probably a favourite win in both games. 

You need to decide what the difference between your %win means i.e difference of <10% is a draw or double chance on the bookies outsider. 

15 hours ago, iroquois said:

Nice day! The model beats the bookie today. Only one game finish with a draw. I never look to the odds or the results or the table or the points! I only use the formula to evaluate the level of play of each team. 




Surely you cannot say you beat the bookies on one day as above and then go against your model for the Barcelona & Feyenoord games.

Hope you can find something out of this model but you must define where you are going with it.

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You are seeing things differently than I am. if the booker gives a probability of an event happening and so do I, that's all that matters. The model follows a theory of value. When the model says for example that team A has a 52% win and team B has a 48% chance. It's suggesting that it's going to be a balanced game, where any result can happen! Even the draw. It's up to the bettor to analyze the booker's odds and see where the value is! I don't care if the booker divides the percentages by the tie! what matters is that the model gives a 48% chance for mallorca and the booker pays 9.50! The booker says that the game will be unbalanced and that's why he pays Mallorca a lot and the model says it will be a balanced game where any result can happen.
According to the winning % of both teams, in this game a draw is also a value bet. Since the model suggests a balanced game, with a high probability of succeeding and the booker pays 5.60! The richness of the model is in the interpretation and the existing value based on the odds offered by the bookmaker.
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To play devil’s advocate (and “paraphrase” your take on yesterday) I’d say it’s a clear win for the bookies today. The three games they made closest were all draws including the two where they made both teams odds against but you had your strongest favourites. Their 3 strongest favourites all won, including the 2 games you had closest to a coin toss.

Best of 3? ;)

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Firstly, apologies for any offence. I feel I made a fair comment to illustrate the point that there were various ways to interpret a small number of results and you should be wary of being too quick to draw a favourable conclusion. Let’s see how things look with a decent sample size.

Secondly, your criticism is well wide of the mark as I’ve posted plenty of long running threads in systems and strategy (with varying degrees of success) including the current anytime goalscorer system which is very much all my own work and has been going for 5 months and over 300 bets. I also tracked every single bet I posted on here last year and returned over 2000 points profit.

I took over the thread posting the KP tips years ago and continue to do it as there’s a degree of demand, I don’t claim any credit for the results. I suspect I at least match you in terms of the extent of my own endeavours to find ways to beat the bookies.

Don't mistake taking an interest and constructive criticism for a desire to see you fail. Your system obviously takes a very different view to the bookies on a lot of games and it will be interesting to see if that helps you gain an edge of any sort in the long term. Football is a game of relatively few goals and small winning margins though so I wouldn’t bother looking too closely at each individual result for a favourable interpretation.

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