Tennis Tips - April 25 - May 1

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Emil Ruusuvuori to beat Yoshihito Nishioka at 1.58 with Unibet

Going to back Ruusuvuori here, Nishioka had problems qualifying against much worse opponents, with a long and tiring match yesterday. Ruusuvuori hasn't lost against anyone worse-ranked on clay so far, only getting beaten by Sinner and Ruud, which you can't really blame him for.

[raduvlad1995]

45 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Emil Ruusuvuori to beat Yoshihito Nishioka at 1.58 with Unibet

Going to back Ruusuvuori here, Nishioka had problems qualifying against much worse opponents, with a long and tiring match yesterday. Ruusuvuori hasn't lost against anyone worse-ranked on clay so far, only getting beaten by Sinner and Ruud, which you can't really blame him for.

scared of nishioka s speed and leftiness

[CzechPunter]

Marko Topo (+5) to beat Oscar Otte at 1.96 with Pinnacle

I don't doubt Otte being a big favorite in this one, but Topo has beaten Laaksonen and Gombos in the qualifiers as a big outsider, so I quite fancy him to cover this big line. Both players are much better on serve than return and something is clearly clicking for Topo here (he was an 8+ underdog against Laaksonen and won 6-4 6-2).

[neilovan]

Not really sure how Tabener can be a favorite over Harris, giving his last clay court match. He has no really pedigree, and Harris should have too much for him, if he brings 3/4 of his game. Tabener just got slaughtered in his last outing and Harris is showing some of his ability, after a slow start to the year.

I don't really rate John Millman, and I think he also loses today (against Gerasimov). Just has a vanilla game and is on the wrong side of his career. Gerasimov coming into this match off a demolition (6-1, 6-1) over T Monteiro, and another win that included a 6-1 set over Cerundolo. Did Millman get in here as a lucky loser?

[CzechPunter]

No, Millman wasn't in the qualifying.

[carina007]

1 hour ago, neilovan said:

Not really sure how Tabener can be a favorite over Harris, giving his last clay court match. He has no really pedigree, and Harris should have too much for him, if he brings 3/4 of his game. Tabener just got slaughtered in his last outing and Harris is showing some of his ability, after a slow start to the year.

I don't really rate John Millman, and I think he also loses today (against Gerasimov). Just has a vanilla game and is on the wrong side of his career. Gerasimov coming into this match off a demolition (6-1, 6-1) over T Monteiro, and another win that included a 6-1 set over Cerundolo. Did Millman get in here as a lucky loser?

For me Harris doesn't have game for clay. Taberner from the other side has much more matches on clay and wins (ok, weak oponents).

Today I like Ivashka because he is last year runner up and I think it's finally time for Thiem's win. 

Gaston-Giron should be close match so I will go with over 21.5 games.

Gerasimov - Millman is another very close match without any favorite so over 21.5 here the same.

Tabilo - Garin between these two Chileans players I see Garin as a winner

[raduvlad1995]

went with bonzi taking a set against my 2nd favorite player, domi might win but I don t think it'll come easy, bonzi has good weapons. 

[neilovan]

1 hour ago, carina007 said:

For me Harris doesn't have game for clay. Taberner from the other side has much more matches on clay and wins (ok, weak oponents).

Today I like Ivashka because he is last year runner up and I think it's finally time for Thiem's win. 

Gaston-Giron should be close match so I will go with over 21.5 games.

Gerasimov - Millman is another very close match without any favorite so over 21.5 here the same.

Tabilo - Garin between these two Chileans players I see Garin as a winner

Taberner just got destroyed in a qualifier (6-1 6-3) by that world beater Bernabe Zapata Miralles. 

[carina007]

1 hour ago, neilovan said:

Taberner just got destroyed in a qualifier (6-1 6-3) by that world beater Bernabe Zapata Miralles. 

Yes but be aware that they probably had information that he will go into main draw as LL

 

[darko08]

7 hours ago, neilovan said:

Not really sure how Tabener can be a favorite over Harris, giving his last clay court match. He has no really pedigree, and Harris should have too much for him, if he brings 3/4 of his game. Tabener just got slaughtered in his last outing and Harris is showing some of his ability, after a slow start to the year.

Harris suffered a back injury in his match against Ramos. I remember you posted a bet on Harris (vs De Minaur) so I made a post explaining the risks of backing Harris. Harris was bagelled in the first set and then he retired. It's been only 4 days since that and do not forget this is a small tournament.

It seems your only reason to back Harris was that Taberner lost against Zapata. Taberner knew he was going to play as a LL (as it has already been said here). So, why he should deny to his friend a spot into the main draw? 
Taberner is a pure claycourter and what he did in Barcelona was impressive. He bagelled Korda and then he was close to beat FAA. I watched a little bit of that and I saw him more solid than ever.

When you place a bet you have to consider all the possible factors. You can't place a bet only because of 1 match (especially when it's a qualification match and the player who has lost enters as a LL...). Don't feel offended, I'm just telling you this cause this match had plenty of factors to think that Harris was not going to play or just not win it in case he decided to play. The most fair thing he could do was to let his spot to a LL and take the half of the money. Anyway, I have not seen the match so don't take my last words too seriously.

[Torque]

11 minutes ago, darko08 said:

Harris suffered a back injury in his match against Ramos. I remember you posted a bet on Harris (vs De Minaur) so I made a post explaining the risks of backing Harris. Harris was bagelled in the first set and then he retired. It's been only 4 days since that and do not forget this is a small tournament.

It seems your only reason to back Harris was that Taberner lost against Zapata. Taberner knew he was going to play as a LL (as it has already been said here). So, why he should deny to his friend a spot into the main draw? 
Taberner is a pure claycourter and what he did in Barcelona was impressive. He bagelled Korda and then he was close to beat FAA. I watched a little bit of that and I saw him more solid than ever.

When you place a bet you have to consider all the possible factors. You can't place a bet only because of 1 match (especially when it's a qualification match and the player who has lost enters as a LL...). Don't feel offended, I'm just telling you this cause this match had plenty of factors to think that Harris was not going to play or just not win it in case he decided to play. The most fair thing he could do was to let his spot to a LL and take the half of the money. Anyway, I have not seen the match so don't take my last words too seriously.

I agree with all of that except the bit about Taberner knowing he was going to get a LL spot. As I understand it, his name went into a LL draw which means he might not have got into the main draw.

[darko08]

41 minutes ago, Torque said:

I agree with all of that except the bit about Taberner knowing he was going to get a LL spot. As I understand it, his name went into a LL draw which means he might not have got into the main draw.

Read the ATP rules for the Lucky Losers cause you don't know how it works. Different rules are applied considering the moment of the vacancy. If it's produced when the last round of the qualifiaction has not finished it will be drawn. If it's produced after the last round of the qualification has finished it will be the better ranked player who will enter as a LL (if he has signed before the main draw matches start). 

[CzechPunter]

Well, the rain certainly didn't help there, slowing things down.

Frances Tiafoe to beat Nuno Borges at 1.76 with Pinnacle

Going against the local guy, purely on quality terms. Tiafoe should prefer Rome to this, really, but he has good memories of this tournament from the past and he's not likely to do well in Italy either, so I think the motivation should be there. Borges is on a good run, but against players from the lower echelon.

[Torque]

1 minute ago, darko08 said:

Read the ATP rules for the Lucky Losers cause you don't know how it works. Different rules are applied considering the moment of the vacancy. If it's produced when the last round of the qualifiaction has not finished it will be drawn. If it's produced after the last round of the qualification has finished it will be the better ranked player who will enter as a LL (if he has signed before the main draw matches start). 

That's interesting. I thought it was always a draw now to stop the very thing you referred to - a player losing on purpose because they know they're getting into the main draw anyway. Evidently the Estoril Open don't know the rules either...

[Torque]

 

 

[carina007]

We are here to help each other and what is most important to share informations

[Torque]

3 minutes ago, carina007 said:

We are here to help each other and what is most important to share informations

Absolutely @carina007 and that's what I'm doing.

[Torque]

The point @darko08 raises is an important one and definitely influences the results of matches in qualifying. As I said, I was under the impression that all lucky losers now enter a draw so that no player knows for certain that they'll qualify for the main draw even if they lose. If I'm wrong in saying that, then @darko08 will have helped me and I'll be appreciative. However, as shown by the link I posted and at least in the case of this tournament it appears I'm right in what I'm saying which invalidates the idea that Taberner's result in qualifying doesn't mean anything.

Edited April 26, 2022 by Torque

[raduvlad1995]

went with ruusovori and kecmanovic to win. I fuly believe that kecmanovic will win since he is just better at everything than altmaier, hope he's also in the mood to compete. Ruusovori is a bit sketchier, but come on crssy on clay ain t cressy on grass or hard courts.

[carina007]

18 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Well, the rain certainly didn't help there, slowing things down.

Frances Tiafoe to beat Nuno Borges at 1.76 with Pinnacle

Going against the local guy, purely on quality terms. Tiafoe should prefer Rome to this, really, but he has good memories of this tournament from the past and he's not likely to do well in Italy either, so I think the motivation should be there. Borges is on a good run, but against players from the lower echelon.

Lajovic - Tiafoe was very strange match. Lajovic was controling set and a half, the same as previous against Daniel T. I wouldn't be surprised if Borges makes an upset here. I know that he is second league but home player (crowd advantage) and everything is possible. In best case NO BET for me.

I have CUEVAS @ 2.00 in my local bookie so I will go with this bet against Verdasco who is 38 years old, playing challenges and recent form it's not the best...

And offcourse, Ruusuovori @ 1.30 and Albert Ramos @ 1.4 which I don't like to much but I will give him some advantage against Kwon

[CzechPunter]

I wouldn't play him at 1.50 or so, but I think he's worth a shot at 1.70+. He's also playing doubles before.

[gg-77]

@darko08@carina007 do you guys know if Ekaterina Alexandrova is already a LL if she loses? She's nr 1 seed in the qualifying atm. Burel already beat her a couple of months ago even if she is not. But if she's guaranteed LL she might as well not give %100.

[gg-77]

15 minutes ago, gg-77 said:

@darko08@carina007 do you guys know if Ekaterina Alexandrova is already a LL if she loses? She's nr 1 seed in the qualifying atm. Burel already beat her a couple of months ago even if she is not. But if she's guaranteed LL she might as well not give %100.

Same thing goes for Kanepi match. I read on twitter that even Magda Linette is a LL. So I guess Kanepi and Alexandrova are LLs as well.

I bet Trevisan to win live. Lets see how it goes.

[gg-77]

New main draw came out there are 2 spots for LLs so top 2 seeds in qualifying who lost are going to be LLs so Kanepi and Alexandrova for sure in. Next is Linette and then Matric.

[carina007]

4 minutes ago, gg-77 said:

New main draw came out there are 2 spots for LLs so top 2 seeds in qualifying who lost are going to be LLs so Kanepi and Alexandrova for sure in. Next is Linette and then Matric.

That means we can put some money on Burel against Alexandrova?

[CzechPunter]

Well, Kanepi has just won. There are little such guarantees. That said, I wouldn't want to put anyone off Burel.

[gg-77]

Trevisan lost the 2nd set from 5-3 up and missed 3 set points. If she had won maybe Kanepi would not try as much in the 3rd but we never know. I'm on Burel too lets see if this is going to work out ?

[carina007]

59 minutes ago, gg-77 said:

Trevisan lost the 2nd set from 5-3 up and missed 3 set points. If she had won maybe Kanepi would not try as much in the 3rd but we never know. I'm on Burel too lets see if this is going to work out ?

I am with 6/10 stake on Burel.

Good luck to us

P.S.

Soooo close. LOL

 

 

Edited April 27, 2022 by carina007

[gg-77]

sorry it was a nice try anyway