iroquois

how you calculate the ratings, what factors you use? thanks

Today: Braga vs benfica Bet braga %winning=60% Booker odds: 3.25 Kelly stake: 165.72$

Game: M. Utd vs leeds Bet m.utd Lost Profit=-215$

Hello beautiful people!? Let's try the kelly criterion system Soocer betting %estimation Use of half kelly criterion (stake divided by two) Initial bank 1000$ --------------------‐----------------------------------- First bet: Game: M. Utd vs leeds Bet m.utd % of winning=81% Booker odds=1.50 Kelly stake=215$

No offence. My answer was bad too! Im not here to promote myself. Im here trying to find something useful to help the community. Fight the bookers is my objective. Not fighting my comrades! Have a nice day!

At least i try to develope things on my own. You copy and past the bets of other guy?...easy life and with time to criticize the effort of other people. You are here like a vampire! Begging to see others fail, are you working for the bookies? Get a life!

Draw day? Lots of ties. Not a good day today. The model and the bookers were overwhelmed by ties? Guimaraes was winning and tie Osasuna was winning and tie Real sociedad was winning and tie... Barcelona gas a difficult game but won at last!

You are seeing things differently than I am. if the booker gives a probability of an event happening and so do I, that's all that matters. The model follows a theory of value. When the model says for example that team A has a 52% win and team B has a 48% chance. It's suggesting that it's going to be a balanced game, where any result can happen! Even the draw. It's up to the bettor to analyze the booker's odds and see where the value is! I don't care if the booker divides the percentages by the tie! what matters is that the model gives a 48% chance for mallorca and the booker pays 9.50! The booker says that the game will be unbalanced and that's why he pays Mallorca a lot and the model says it will be a balanced game where any result can happen. According to the winning % of both teams, in this game a draw is also a value bet. Since the model suggests a balanced game, with a high probability of succeeding and the booker pays 5.60! The richness of the model is in the interpretation and the existing value based on the odds offered by the bookmaker.

Sunday forecast Some interesting stuff here! Barcelona vs mallorca. My model predicts a close game here (52%-48%). The bookers don't think so, they give 9.50 to mallorca. Clearly they think differently! Let's see what happens...9.50 is an amazing odd. Even the X2 here is a value option! Sittard vs feyernoord is another game who have a big discrepancy between my model and the bookers. My model predict for this game 49% of win for sittard and 51% for feyernoord... The bookers are giving 6.75 to sittard, a huge value here!

Nice day! The model beats the bookie today. Only one game finish with a draw. I never look to the odds or the results or the table or the points! I only use the formula to evaluate the level of play of each team.

Saturday...hard games

They are giving 7% as a chance of win. Im giving 26%. Those are winning chances, not draw!

Analysis: The bookers fail a lot when they publish the odds! They give 14.00 to furth? This is equivalent to 7% of probabilities of win!!! Too low! My model give then 26%=3.85. This is more in accord with the final result(1-1). Sevilla vs cadiz. The bookers give 6.50 to cadiz. How is this possible? My formula that calculate the level of play of a team say than cadiz is playing better than sevilla in this period of the season. 62%=1.61. More close to the final result (1-1) of the game. The 6.50 the booker gives equal to only 15% of a probability of winning!!! Strasbourg vs psg. My model tell me that this will be a close game. With 46% for strasbourg and 56% for psg. The bookers give 3.60 to strasbourg, only 28% of a chance for a positive result! The game finish with a tie! Utrecht vs nijmegen My model tell that this will be a close game too And it was right. The final result was 1-0. Here the booker were more close of reality than my model. Famalicao vs estoril. Estoril saw a red card early in the game, transforming the game to his end. So i don't say nothing here! My model give a good chance for estoril win. They were playing better than famalicao. But the red card was to heavy for them! Qpr vs sheff. Utd Nothing new here. My model and the bookers give a clear chance of winning for the away team!. Not bad for the model that tries to prove that the level of play is more important than the final result! Lets continue. This is a work in progress...

Results: Analyzes:

Im tired of developing systems based on cold stats! My conclusion is that the league table lie. Many times the clubs on the top of the league are not the best playing football. Lots of times we assist true surprises. Clubs at the bottom beating the best ones! I suppose some lucky is intrinsic to the game. But the majority of times, the club who lost is not the better playing. So i develope some principles and a formula to rank the teams! 1) football is moment. I don't care about games played far ago. 2) the league table lie! 3) i don't care about the results, they lie too! 4) i only care about the level of play, how good they are, independent of the final result. 5) i develope a formula that calculate the level of play I don't put here picks. Only % of win. So, here are the games for tomorrow: