Xtc12 Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 Needed to start a new thread here so this is what I came up with. On looking at my Irish bets in my thread the Conflict Cup the Strike Rate (Win Bets) over 6 years is 32.97% giving me a loss of 25.18 Pts from 1274 bets. Over the last 3 years and the current year the selections have shown a strike rate of 70.83%, 65.78%, 62.93% and for the current year 70.58% for the selections to come in the first three. Now, from this I cannot tell whether all these horses were in place payout positions but also 4th and 5th place finishes are not taken into account. I am going to do an EW bet in most races at most meetings in Ireland and see how it goes. How will I pick the selections : I will continue to pick my daily selections for the Conflict Cup and if any of these guarantees me a profit (or stake return) they will be a selection here. Otherwise I will pick a horse that would be my next best in the race. All selections will have odds of better than 4\1 or 5\1 depending on the place payout. I started this on paper on the 2nd April with the Leopardstown meeting and up to and including Tramore and the Curragh yesterday things look like this. Lets see how it goes, starting with Tramore today all odds will be with Bet365. For the exercise all bets will be 5 Pts EW 16.30 Igraine @ 5\1 1/5 1-3 17.30 Aunty Audrey @ 8\1 1/5 1-4 18.00 Frazel Express @ 7\1 1/5 1-4 18.30 An Droichead Eile @ 11\1 1/5 1-3 19.00 Singing Banjo @ 7\1 1/5 1-4 alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 11, 2022 Author Share Posted April 11, 2022 From todays selections we had a 2nd and a winner. Igraine @ 5\1 - 2nd Frazel Express @ 15\2 - 1st Update : Dundalk tomorrow. alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 11, 2022 Author Share Posted April 11, 2022 Dundalk 17.30 Sarcastic @ 5\1 1/5 1-3 18.00 Jake Peter @ 11\2 1/5 1-4 19.30 Amanirenas @ 5\1 1/5 1-3 20.00 Inishmot Prince @ 5\1 1/5 1-3 20.30 Cherry Bloom @ 5\1 1/5 1-4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 13, 2022 Author Share Posted April 13, 2022 3 placed yesterday - Jake Peter @ 11\2, Amanirenas @ 5\1 & Cherry Bloom @ 5\1 for a return of 30.50 Gowran Park 16.50 Tharif @ 11\2 1/5 1-3 17.20 Helpmeout @ 11\2 1/5 1-4 17.50 Plunkett @ 6\1 1/5 1-3 18.20 Kiss You Later @ 5\1 1/5 1-3 18.50 Bay of Bengal @ 7\1 1/5 1-3 19.20 Needle Lace @ 5\1 1/5 1-3 alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 You seem to be off to a great start. Good luck with this ? Xtc12 and harry_rag 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 13, 2022 Author Share Posted April 13, 2022 Two winners ... Plunkett @ 6\1 & Bay of Bengal @ 8\1 .... Needle Lace 3rd @ 6\1 ..... returns 115 alexcaruso808 and harry_rag 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 13, 2022 Author Share Posted April 13, 2022 Clonmel 16.15 Joseph Conrad @ 11\2 1/4 1-2 16.50 Rare Conor @ 5\1 1/5 1-3 17.20 Shes Some Doll @ 6\1 1/5 1-4 17.50 Simpatico @ 5\1 1/5 1-3 18.20 Trouble and Strife @ 15\2 1/5 1-3 18.50 Iridescent @ 11\2 1/5 1-5 19.20 Cool Survivor @ 7\1 1/5 1-3 alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 Well done yesterday, always nice to get in front with a new system rather than start with a lean spell. Might be worth recording the returns to 10 point win bets as well for comparison. alexcaruso808 and Xtc12 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 15, 2022 Author Share Posted April 15, 2022 (edited) 3 Placed yesterday and 2 Non Runners ...... Simpatico @ 7\1, Trouble and Strife @ 10\1 & Iridescent @ 11\2 Cork & Fairyhouse tomorrow, possibly blow the whole profit tomorrow @harry_rag good idea on keeping totals for just the win ! Edited April 15, 2022 by Xtc12 Add table harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 16, 2022 Author Share Posted April 16, 2022 Well two meetings today, this is where it could get a bit dodgy Cork 13.40 Esculenta @ 8\1 1/5 1-3 14.15 London Palladium @ 5\1 1/5 1-5 14.50 Breaking Story @ 7\1 1/5 1-5 15.25 Federica Sophia @ 6\1 1/5 1-3 16.00 Martinstown @ 6\1 1/5 1-3 16.35 Sussex @ 6\1 1/4 1-2 17.10 Tip of the Spear @ 6\1 1/5 1-5 17.45 Gabby's Girl @ 6\1 1/5 1-4 Fairyhouse 13.55 Harald Hardrad @ 5\1 1/5 1-3 14.30 Everything Now @ 10\1 1/5 1-5 15.05 She's Commanche @ 5\1 1/5 1-4 16.15 Belle Metal @ 7\1 1/5 1-5 16.50 Glan @ 9\1 1/5 1-5 17.25 Oakroom Lady @ 9\1 1/5 1-3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 16, 2022 Author Share Posted April 16, 2022 Cork - Esculenta 2nd @ 8\1, London Palladium 2nd @ 17\2, Breaking Story 4th @ 7\1, Martinstown NR, Sussex 2nd @ 10\1, Tip of the Spear 1st @ 10\1 Fairyhouse - Everything Now 5th @ 10\1, Glan 1st @ 9\1, **Another Double Day tomorrow Cork & Fairyhouse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 17, 2022 Author Share Posted April 17, 2022 Cork 13.10 Wee Willie Nail @ 12\1 1/5 1-3 13.45 Copper Nation @ 5\1 1/5 1-3 14.20 Cash Back @ 13\2 1/5 1-3 14.55 Old Town Garde @ 12\1 1-3 16.05 Au Fleuron @ 11\2 1-5 16.40 Martha Divine @ 6\1 1/5 1-5 Fairyhouse 14.00 Brookie @ 13\2 1/5 1-3 14.35 Womalko @ 15\2 1/5 1-6 15.10 Lunar Display @ 25\1 1/5 1-4 15.45 The Dara Man @ 7\1 1/5 1-3 16.20 Grange Walk @ 6\1 1/5 1-3 16.55 Master McShee @ 13\2 1/4 1-2 17.25 Dr Eggman @ 15\2 1/5 1-3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 18, 2022 Author Share Posted April 18, 2022 Cork : Wee Willie Nail 3rd @ 12\1, Copper Nation 1st @ 5\1, Cash Back 2nd @ 13\2, Martha Divine 2nd @ 10\1 Fairyhouse : Master McShee 2nd @ 7\1, Dr Eggman 3rd @17\2 Cork 13.50 Friends N Commerce @ 5\1 1/5 1-3 14.25 The Niffler @ 5\1 1/5 1-5 14.59 Whiskeywealth @ 15\2 1/5 1-3 15.34 Sofia's Castle @ 6\1 1/4 1-2 16.44 Down the Highway @ 14\1 1/4 1-2 17.54 Rocknrye @ 5\1 1/5 1-3 Fairyhouse 14.05 Vadaly @ 11\2 1/5 1-5 14.40 Lunar Power @ 6\1 1/4 1-2 15.15 Festival D'Ex @ 5\1 1/5 1-5 15.50 Heaven Help Us @ 8\1 1/5 1-4 16.20 Easy Game @ 4\1 1/4 1-2 17.00 Time To Get Up @ 14\1 1/5 1-7 17.40 Donkey Years @ 4\1 1/5 1-4 alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 19, 2022 Author Share Posted April 19, 2022 Cork : Friends N Commerce 3rd @ 11\2, The Niffler 3rd @ 5\1, Down the Highway 1st @ 17\2 Fairyhouse : Festival D'Ex 5th @ 5\1, Easy Game 1st @ 15\2 Have to be happy after coming off two three day meetings in Cork and Fairyhouse. Bellewstown tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 20, 2022 Author Share Posted April 20, 2022 Bellewstown 15.30 Cyrus Dallin @ 7\1 1/5 1-3 16.05 Kaliysta @ 5\1 1/5 1-3 16.35 Mary Salome @ 13\2 1/5 1-4 17.10 Harmony Rose @ 5\1 1/5 1-3 17.45 Red Wasp @ 7\1 1/5 1-4 18.20 Alabaster @ 6\1 1/5 1-4 18.50 Gift of Kings @ 11\2 1/5 1-4 19.20 Granville Street @ 7\1 1/5 1-3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 21, 2022 Author Share Posted April 21, 2022 Bellewstown ?♂️Kaliysta 3rd @ 17\2 , Mary Salome 4th @ 13\2 , Harmony Rose 3rd @ 9\1, Granville Street 3rd @ 15\2 Kilbeggan 16.45 Unbreakable Bond @ 15\2 1/5 1-3 17.15 Mullins Cross @ 12\1 1/5 1-4 17.45 Park Hind @ 11\2 1/5 1-5 18.15 Pale Blue Dot @ 11\4 1/5 1-5 18.45 Phil's Choice @ 6\1 1/5 1-3 19.15 Bella Bliss @ 13\2 1/5 1-3 Tipperary 15.55 Treasure Trove @ 9\2 1/4 1-2 16.25 Messa Concertata @ 6\1 1/5 1-3 17.00 Livingston range @ 14\1 1/5 1-3 17.30 Hymn Book Too @ 6\1 1/5 1-3 18.00 Inchiquin Star @ 8\1 1/5 1-5 18.30 Stay Local @ 5\1 1/5 1-5 19.00 Lady Leanora @ 5\1 1/5 1-5 19.30 Emphatic Answer @ 4\1 1/4 1-2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 22, 2022 Author Share Posted April 22, 2022 Kilbeggan : Disaster, not even close to a place Tipperary : Messa Concertata 1st @ 6\1, Hymn Book Too 1st @ 10\1, Inchiquin Star 2nd @ 8\1, Stay Local 3rd @ 5\1 Kilbeggan 16.25 Zoom Tiger @ 6\1 1/5 1-3 17.00 Gotthenod @ 5\1 1/5 1-5 17.30 Shoot First @ 8\1 1/5 1-3 18.00 Ask and Answer @ 5\1 1/5 1-5 18.30 Ciao Bella @ 6\1 1/5 1-3 19.00 Different Strokes @ 13\2 1/5 1-4 19.30 Western run @ 10\1 1/5 1-3 alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 23, 2022 Author Share Posted April 23, 2022 Kilbeggan : Gothenod 1st @ 9\1 - two Non Runners Ciao Bella & Western Run ** Kilbeggan hit me hard 11 selections 1 winner & zero place horses. Limerick 13.40 James Henry @ 10\1 1/5 1-3 14.15 Zuhra @ 15\2 1/5 1-3 14.50 Coins Cross @ 8\1 1/5 1-5 15.24 Talbot @ 11\2 1/5 1-5 15.55 Maristella @ 7\1 1/5 1-3 16.30 Business @ 11\2 1/5 1-4 17.00 Prophets Voice @ 5\1 1/5 1-3 17.30 Breffni Girl @ 13\2 1/5 1-5 Navan 14.00 Wild Rover @ 12\1 1/4 1-2 14.35 Andromedas Kingdom @ 7\1 1/5 1-4 15.10 Eloquent Arthur @ 5\1 1/5 1-4 17.21 Female Approach @ 5\1 1/4 1-4 17.55 Fumata @ 10\1 1/5 1-3 Win Only Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 24, 2022 Author Share Posted April 24, 2022 Big step backwards yesterday Limerick : Coins Cross 4th @ 8\1, Maristella 3rd @ 7\1, Prophets Voice 2nd @ 5\1 Navan : Not a thing Naas tomorrow ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 25, 2022 Author Share Posted April 25, 2022 Naas 16.40 La Dolce Vita @ 5\1 1/5 1-3 17.15 Nordic Passage @ 17\2 1/5 1-4 17.45 Juno Beach @ 13\2 1/5 1-4 18.45 Champagne @ 15\2 1/5 1-3 19.15 Knightlaila @ 6\1 1/5 1-4 19.45 Hot Bell @ 9\1 1/5 1-5 20.15 Tooso @ 5\1 1/5 1-5 ** need a good day 5 day meeting coming up at Punchestown Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 25, 2022 Author Share Posted April 25, 2022 Naas : La Dolce Vita 3rd @ 5\1, Knightlaila 4th @ 6\1 Punchestown 16.15 Mighty Potter @ 10\1 1/4 1-2 16.50 Eskylane @ 9\1 1/5 1-5 17.25 Andy Dufresne @ 20\1 1/4 1-2 18.00 As Tears Go By @ 10\1 1/5 1-4 18.35 Fury Road @ 6\1 1/4 1-2 19.45 Vadsa Queen @ 6\1 1/5 1-3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 27, 2022 Author Share Posted April 27, 2022 Punchestown : Mighty Potter 1st @ 20\1, Vadsa Queen 2nd @ 6\1 Punchestown 15.40 Life In the Park @ 15\2 1/5 1-6 16.15 IA Connect @ 5\1 1/5 1-3 16.45 Gibraltar @ 6\1 1/5 1-3 17.55 Clan Des Obeaux @ 11\2 1/5 1-3 18.30 Redemption Day @ 9\1 1/5 1-3 19.05 Fancy Foundations @ 8\1 1/5 1-4 harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 28, 2022 Author Share Posted April 28, 2022 Punchestown : Life in the Park 1st @ 15\2, Clan Des Obeaux 2nd @ 11\2, Redemption Day 2nd @ 10\1 Punchestown 15.40 Ideal Pal @ 15\2 1/5 1-6 16.50 Tout Est Permis @ 11\2 1/5 1-4 17.25 Sire Du Berlais @ 5\1 1/4 1-2 18.00 Mac's Charm @ 10\1 1/5 1-6 18.35 Blue Lord @ 11\2 1/4 1-2 19.10 Deja Vue @ 7\1 1/5 1-4 19.45 Music Drive @ 6\1 1/5 1-3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 29, 2022 Author Share Posted April 29, 2022 Punchestown : Tout Est Permis 4th @ 11\2 R4, Blue Lord 1st @ 11\2 R4 55p Punchestown 15.40 Jigginstown King @ 10\1 1/5 1-3 16.15 French Dynamite @ 13\2 1/5 1-4 16.50 Scarlet and Dove @ 4\1 1/4 1-2 17.25 Teahupoo @ 12\1 1/4 1-2 18.00 Flame Bearer @ 4\1 1/4 1-2 18.35 Dorking Cock @ 12\1 1/4 1-2 19.10 Bring On the Night @ 5\1 1/5 1-3 19.45 Golden Wonders @ 5\1 1/5 1-4 alexcaruso808 and harry_rag 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 30, 2022 Author Share Posted April 30, 2022 (edited) Punchestown : French Dynamite 3rd @ 13\2, Scarlett and Dove 1st @ 4\1, Flame Bearer 2nd @ 8\1 Punchestown 14.35 Stand Up and Fight @ 8\1 1/5 1-4 15.10 Anibale Fly @ 8\1 1/5 1-4 15.50 Telmesomethinggirl @ 13\2 1/5 1-3 16.25 Donkey Years @ 7\1 1/5 1-4 17.00 Fil Dor @ 9\2 1/4 1-2 17.30 Comprond @ 5\1 1/5 1-6 18.05 Spirit of Legend @ 5\1 1/5 1-4 Edited April 30, 2022 by Xtc12 Add table Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted May 1, 2022 Author Share Posted May 1, 2022 Punchestown : Donkey Years 1st @ 7\1, Fil Dor 2nd @ 9\2, Camprond 1st @ 5\1 Sligo 14.50 Myrcella @ 5\1 1/5 1-4 15.25 Tai Sing Yeh @ 6\1 1/5 1-4 16.00 Lariat @ 11\2 1/5 1-4 16.35 Startedwithakiss @ 11\2 1/5 1-4 17.10 Irish Lullaby @ 11\1 1/5 1-3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted May 2, 2022 Author Share Posted May 2, 2022 Sligo : Tai Sing Yeh 1st @ 15\2, Lariat 2nd @ 13\2, Irish Lullaby 1st @ 11\1 Curragh 13.10 Simpson's Paradox @ 6\1 1/5 1-3 13.45 Ocean Vision @ 8\1 1/4 1-2 14.20 Wexford Native @ 4\1 1/4 1-2 14.55 Queens Pardon @ 16\1 1/5 1-4 15.30 Sh Boom @ 5\1 1/5 1-3 16.40 No Patience @ 15\2 1/5 1-5 17.15 Cailin Cliste @ 13\2 1/5 1-6 Down Royal 14.00 Freddie Robdal @ 11\2 1/5 1-3 14.35 Invivo @ 14\1 1/5 1-5 16.20 Amaulino @ 7\1 1/5 1-3 17.30 Self Isolation @ 11\1 1/5 1-3 alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted May 2, 2022 Author Share Posted May 2, 2022 Curragh : Wexford Native 2nd @ 4\1, Queens Pardon 3rd @ 16\1 Down Royal : Nothing Ballinrobe 16.50 Be Fierce @ 8\1 1/5 1-3 17.25 Peace Party @ 8\1 1/5 1-4 18.30 Golden Glen @ 5\1 1/5 1-4 19.00 Creggsman @ 8\1 1/5 1-4 19.30 Jackson's Gold @ 13\2 1/5 1-3 20.00 Defan @ 8\1 1/5 1-3 20.30 Can't Beat History @ 7\1 1/5 1-3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted May 4, 2022 Author Share Posted May 4, 2022 Ballinrobe : Peace Party 2nd @ 8\1, Jackson's Gold 2nd @ 8\1, Defan 1st @ 8\1, Can't Beat History 2nd @ 7\1 Gowran Park 16.50 War Effort @ 7\1 1/5 1-3 17.20 Adonis @ 11\2 1/5 1-3 17.50 Barrington Court @ 11\2 1/5 1-3 19.20 Gold Lunula @ 13\2 1/5 1-5 19.50 Phoenix Open @ 7\1 1/5 1-5 20.20 Tooso @ 5\1 1/5 1-5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted May 4, 2022 Author Share Posted May 4, 2022 Gowran Park : Nothing Tipperary 17.45 No Thanks @ 15\2 1/5 1-6 18.15 Jack Holiday @ 12\1 1/5 1-5 19.45 Susie Miller @ 11\2 1/5 1-3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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