World Championships (inc Qualifiers)

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The Qualifiers get started tomorrow for "The Big One" the World Championships. Here are all the groups for qualifications :

Group 1
Walden
Li Hang
Donaldson
Taylor
Jianbo
Burden
Judge
McGuigan

Preview
Ricky Walden looks to be a warm favourite in this group and in my opinion, it's a fair judgement. Walden has got to the latter stages of multiple tournaments recently and all he would need here is to beat Taylor or Jianbo and then a likely play-off final with Scott Donaldson or Li Hang. You would fancy Walden against either.

Predicted winner - Walden
Outsiders - None

Group 2
D.Jones
Wongharuthai
Si
Collumb
Dale
Haotian
Ning
Wenbo 

Preview
Quite an open one now, this, as Wenbo has been kicked out for hitting a woman. You would have to say that it's now a 2 way battle with Lu Ning and Haotian but Dale now looks to be a good shout as I assume that he would get a bye to the final match if he beats Duane Jones. Don't hold me to that because I can't find a market on this atall. 

Predicted winner - Ning
Outsiders - Dale

Group 3
Yuelong
Maguire
Anda
Akani
Hicks
Astley
Jiankang
Kazakov

Preview
Group 3 is my first bet and it's Zhang Anda to get himself through to the main event. He will likely face Andy Hicks of whom I think he beats. Has beat him 5-1 in their only meet up and is certainly playing the better snooker. In the penultimate match he would face Yuelong, who is playing some decent stuff recently but Anda beat him in the 2016 Worlds and then again 4-2 in the 2018 Gibraltar Open. Since then, Yuelong has beaten Zhang in 2019 on a deciding leg. If he can see himself through that match then he would likely face Maguire in the final. Maguire's form isn't the best but you would expect him to raise his game here. Anda has made the quarter finals of the Welsh Open and then the last 32 of the Gibraltar Open. He's an underrated player in my eyes and at 13/2 I think he's worth a couple of points

Predicted winner - Maguire
Outsiders - Zhang Anda

2pts Anda to Qualify 13/2 william hill

Group 4
Brown
King
O'Donnell
White
Ferg O'Brien
Patrick
Hill
Davies

Preview
Group 4 has Jordan Brown as a warm favourite and sitting at even money. He's in good form recently and it's not hard to imagine Brown coming through this group but I'm happy to take a punt on 1 at a big price and 1 at an even bigger price. Fraser Patrick takes on Michael White in a pretty high quality first round qualification tie and I can see it being a tight match. They played out a deciding leg win for White back in 2016 qualifications. I think White comes through that match and then he would face Martin O'Donnell. O'Donnell's form just isn't that great right now and then the form of Mark King, which the winner would play is also highly questionable. I think Michael White is worth a bet and I also think a smaller punt on Aaron Hill is worth a go. He would face Ferg O'Brien, who he beat 4-2 at the Welsh Open last year and then the favourite Jordan Brown. 66/1 on Hill is just too big. It was only last year he was beating Ronnie. 

Predicted winner - Brown
Outsiders - White / Hill

2pts White to Qualify 9/1 betfred
1pt Hill to Qualify 66/1 paddypower
 

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Group 5
Selt
Jak Jones
Un-Nooh
Bond
Vahedi
Kleckers
J.White
Pagett

Preview
Selt is the favourite here after his final defeat to Judd Trump. I get the feeling that if he didn't make that final then he wouldn't be favourite here but he is playing decent enough and it's not the best quality line-up. I think there is abit of value in Vahedi at 66/1. He faces Kleckers first up, who started the season well with a last 16 place at the British Open but since then has won just 2 matches really, Snooker Shootout aside. The winner takes on another man bang out of form in the shape of Nigel Bond. I would fancy Vahedi to beat Bond and then the winner would face Selt. In the other semi-final Jak Jones will likely take on Un-Nooh. I think Jak Jones is my likeliest winner but I would rather Vahedi at 66s then taking Jones at 15/8.

Predicted winner - Jones
Outsiders - Vahedi

1pt Vahedi to Qualify 66/1 paddypower

Group 6
Ford
Jamie Jones
Holt
Joyce
Heathcote
Miah
Zifan
Mertens

Preview
Tom Ford will go into this as the even shot favourite. He will likely play Holt for a place in the final qualification match and in the other half, you would expect Joyce to take on Jamie Jones. I would say that Holt on his day has every chance in this group but he just isn't playing very well at the moment and it puts me off backing him. I think Ford takes on Jamie Jones in the final match of this and it's a 50/50 in my eyes and not worth getting into as a single bet.

Predicted winner - Jamie Jones
Outsiders - Holt

Group 7
Ding
Maflin
Pengfei
R.Williams
Walker
Steadman
Lilley
Evans

Preview
A group that Ding should get through without too much fuss. He has switched on abit of form at the right moment and I can't see anybody beating Ding in the final match. Maflin is a good player on his day but his form has been very patchy and 7/2 isn't big enough for me to get involved in laying Ding.

Predicted winner - Ding
Outsiders  - Maflin

Group 8
Gould
Woollaston
O'Connor
Hugill
Hancorn
Pinches
Young
Stephens

Preview
I think this is a tough group and I'm interested in another outsider in the shape of Ben Hancorn. I think he beats Young and then would have a tricky match against Ash Hugill. If he gets through that then the winner takes on the favourite for qualification, Martin Gould. Gould has all the experience to get through here and ofcourse it would be a suprise if he doesn't atleast make a final Qualification match with Woollaston but I think Hancorn has it in him. Hancorn has just recently made the quarter finals of the Gibraltor Open and has beaten Woollaston along the way in that event. Woollaston has recently beaten Gould too, so it's an open group and the value looks to me like Hancorn.

Predicted winner - Gould
Outsiders - Hancorn

2pts Hancorn to Qualify 14/1 paddypower
 

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Group 9
Gilbert
Hamilton
Fu
Slessor
Doherty
McLeod
Burns
Yee

Preview
Dave Gilbert is the odds on favourite to get out of this group, but I think he would be even shorter if his form was half decent and it's just not and it means it's probably worth having a point or two on somebody to provide a shock. He plays the winner of likely McLeod and Doherty. I would love to give McLeod a shot at such huge odds (80/1) but I saw him against Wilson and actually tipped him to make the match close but he was truly dreadful. It makes me think that it's very likely Gilbert makes the final qualification match and I reckon he would take on Hamilton or Slessor. Slessor is a real battler and it wouldn't shock me if he got to the final match and even won qualification. I would have a bet on Fu if he has been playing on the tour consistently but he's just been out for too long for me to take 11/2 on him.

Predicted winner - Gilbert
Outsiders - Slessor

2pts Slessor to Qualify 12/1 betfred

Group 10
J.Robertson
Zhengyi
Wakelin
O.Lines
Devlin
J.Wilson
Hoes
Crofts

Preview
Jimmy Robertson has been playing some really nice stuff recently and it's not surprise to see him as a favourite in this one. I think any of the top 4 here have a good chance and so it's a no bet for me. If Zhengyi was a bigger price then I would think about it but he is actually far too short in this group. 

Predicted winner - J.Robertson
Outsiders - O.Lines

Group 11
Saengkham
Yupeng
Milkins
Bingyu
Higginson
Wells
P.Lines
Lam

Preview
Another tough group here and I think Milkins is worth a shot. He must be full of confidence after that ranking win and even before that, we saw him play some excellent stuff in his loss to Ding. He will likely take on Yupeng for the right to play Saengkham or Higginson. Yupeng tends to win one, lose one, win one, lose etc at the moment and his form is very patchy. I would be happy to take Milkins to beat him and he also beat Saengkham 6-2 in their last h2h. 

Predicted winner - Milkins
Outsiders - Milkins

5pts Milkins to Qualify 12/5 paddypower 

Group 12
Day
Highfield
Davis
Sijun
Hallworth
Cahill
O'Neill
Muir

Preview
Ryan day the favourite here at even money. I reckon he will take Sijun on in the penultimate match and then the winner likely to be playing Highfield in the final. The value has to be with Jamie O'Neill for me. He isn't playing very well right now and hasn't had a great season but top half of the group is wide open and if he turns up, the price could be ridiculous.

Predicted winner - Day
Outsiders - Jamie O'Neill

1pt O'Neill to Qualify 66/1 paddypower

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Group 13
Carter
Craigie
Stevens
Yang
Mann
Greene
Emery
Kenna

Preview
Ali Carter gets through here, for me. The experience he has in these kind of scenarios is worth so much and although you have the likes of Stevens who also has a wealth of experience, he will have a tough tie against Craigie whilst Ali strolls to the final qualification match. I would fancy Carter to beat either player but I suppose Craigie is a dangerous outsider in this group.

Predicted winner - Carter
Outsider - Craigie

Group 14
Perry
Guodong
Grace
Carty
Page
Georgiou
O'Sullivan
Boiko

Preview
I think Jackson Page is worth having a punt on for this group. He won the only h2h with Carty that they played and the winner of that match will then play Joe Perry in the penultimate match. Funny enough, Page also has the upper hand in that h2h but ofcourse that doesn't mean it's a straight forward win because of that. It does add some confidence to a player though, knowing that. 

Predicted winner - Perry
Outsiders - Page

2pts Page to Qualify 22/1 betfred

Group 15
Dott
G.Wilson
Junxu
Jiahui
Clarke
Surety
Ajaib
Lloyd

Preview
Much like Carter in his group, Dott has the experience here to see himself through but I think it's probably worth having an outsider and for me, that points to Jiahui. It would be a very good match to see him take on Jamie Clarke, for the right to take on Gary Wilson and I reckon that he wins it. Jiahui recently beat Gary Wilson and wont be scared of him in the penultimate match and Dott in the final, well once against, Jiahui also beat him recently. I like his form and the talent he has it's just if the moment gets to him.

Predicted winner - Dott
Outsiders - Jiahui

2pts Jiahui to Qualify 9/1 betfred

Group 16
Vafaei
Ursenbacher
Carrington
Yize
Langning
Peifan
Lichtenberg
Maddocks

Preview
This one looks like a Vafaei/Ursenbacher final match to me but I don't think there is much value to be had. Yize has some form but I still think that 9/1 looks a tad skinny. It's one to pass for me as I reckon Vafaei gets through.

Predicted winner - Vafaei
Outsiders - Yize
 

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1pt 5-fold - Walden / Jak Jones / Jamie Jones / J.Robertson / Vafaei all to qualify 47/1 paddypower
1pt 4-fold - Ding / Anda / Gilbert / Day 30/1 paddypower
0.5prs big outsider treble - Anda / Milkins / Jak Jones 62/1 paddypower

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Here are the matches tomorrow. Well, today I suppose.

9.30am
Si Vs Collumb
Anda Vs Kazakov
Jiankang Vs Astley
Jianbo Vs Judge

2.30pm
Hill Vs Davies
Burden Vs McGuigan
D.Jones Vs Wongharuthai
Patrick Vs M.White

7.30pm
Pagett Vs J.White
Miah Vs Zifan
Heathcote Vs Mertens
Kleckers Vs Vahedi

So, there are a few that I like in these lot and the first one is Pagett to beat Jimmy White. Jimmy hasn't won since August, when he beat Aaron Hill. It was very early in the season and since then he has gone on to lose 11 matches in a row and so I think the 5/6 on offer is actually quite kind. Pagett may not be a world class player but he has won a few matches more than Jimmy and more importantly, he scores abit better. The other bet I like is Vahedi to beat Kleckers. I've posted about Vahedi and what a chance he has on qualifying but one thing I do think will happen is that he beats Kleckers. Finally, I think the bookies have gone abit over the top with Hammad Miah. Yes, he should beat Zifan but no way is he 8/15 to beat anybody and Zifan on his day could spoil that price of 6/4 and I reckon it's worth a couple points.

6pts Pagett to beat J. White 5/6 paddypower
5.5pts Vahedi to beat Kleckers 8/11 paddypower
2pts Zifan to beat Miah 6/4 paddypower
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1pt treble - Pagett, Vahedi & Astley treble 5/1 paddypower

[charliepie]

Thanks for your comprehensive review and well thought out selections, definitely looking forward to some winning bets here!

[charliepie]

The pace is slow and the standard low in the qualies! Jianbo and Judge just back on to finish their match @ 4-4 and it's now 23:45. Vahedi game is still tied 3-3. Pagett won fairly easily though.

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Yeah, Vahedi is making me want to rip my eyeballs out. Playing like a 2-bob amateur. I'm not sure I can watch any more of this rubbish so it's time for bed. I've not seen much on the cards tomorrow. Only one I thought about was Steadman to beat Lilley but it's a later game so I'll have a think about that more tomorrow. Looks like a small loss today thanks to this joker.

* edit - oh and perhaps Bingyu to beat Wells. That's a 9.30am match. hmm *

[charliepie]

Yep, the 11/2 on Marco would have been a poor choice. I expected him to beat Mr Burns but 2 years off the circuit meant he was ring-rusty. 3 matches not completed earlier so it's going to be another late night finish.

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2 hours ago, charliepie said:

Yep, the 11/2 on Marco would have been a poor choice. I expected him to beat Mr Burns but 2 years off the circuit meant he was ring-rusty. 3 matches not completed earlier so it's going to be another late night finish.

Yeah, shame for Fu being away so long. Burns used to be a good player but haven’t seen him play well for a while. Did he play well today? 

[charliepie]

Didn't see the whole match but from what I did see it was a close one and overall Burns probably deserved the win. Chang's just resumed his match with Wells just now.

[charliepie]

Lines and Lam finished after 2am!!

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These matches are finishing at crazy times. I'm just keeping my eyes on the qualifications at the moment. A few I was shocked with like Hancorn going so early. Happy to see Anda and White go through and Page looked in good shape yesterday

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I'm going to take on Bond in the 2.30pm matches. I backed Vahedi to get through this group partly due to the form of Bond and despite Kleckers beating Vahedi, I also feel like Kleckers will beat Bond, also. Kleckers scored decent enough against Vahedi but largely it was Vahedi being toilet. He did manage a couple of 50+ breaks though which is more than Bond has managed in his last few matches. I think Kleckers can progress to the next quallie game today

4pts Kleckers to beat Bond evens willhill

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this match above is actually an evening game

[charliepie]

Nice to have an easy win fall into our laps! Fidget was poor, wish I'd had a bit on Liam Davies @ 3/1

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Jackson Page looked good in the last round and I will take him to beat Carty today. Page won the only h2h on a deciding leg back in 2020 but more importantly, he scored very well in his 6-1 win over O'Sullivan. One century and 3 50+ breaks in that match. Carty comes into this with little form after losing to Ajaib at the Gibraltor Open and Page will have alitle bit more cutting edge after already playing a game here

5pts Page to beat Carty 4/5 willhill

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Page through without a fuss. Slessor aswell, tonight. 6-0. Tomorrow I will be backing another outright qualifier to win and it's 19yr old Si Jiahui to beat Jamie Clarke. I can see it being another tight match for Jiahui to grind out but Clarke hasn't got the best form. Lost his last 3 and has only beaten Ajaib and the out-of-form Bond since a good English Open at the back end of last year. Jiahui has already came through Surety after going 2-0 and 3-1 down, he came back to win 6 in a row. Hitting 4 50+ breaks in that match. He got to the L16 of the Turkish Masters and gave a good showing of himself against Ding in that match. He comes into this with the better form.

7pts Jiahui to beat Clarke 4/7 paddypower

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Bottling at its finest

[charliepie]

yeah, it's annoying when those odds on "certainties" get turned over!

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I'm really shocked that Walden went out. These boys coming into this cold, it's not always a good thing and I'm going against another one, in Ursenbacher. He plays Peifan Lei this morning and Lei is on fire. He played so well against Carrington. Won 6-3 and scored 3 centuries and 2 50+ breaks in those 6 frames. The 11/8 on offer is too big if he keeps that form.

5pts Lei (+1.5 frames) to beat Ursenbacher 4/5 paddypower
4pts Lei to beat Ursenbacher 11/8 paddypower

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after going 3-0 up and really it should have been 4-0, he's started playing like cr*p and so I don't hold too much hope, now. Looking at the afternoon matches, I think Matthew Stevens, just worse than an even shot against Craigie, is worth taking. Stevens is vastly experienced and beat Craigie 4-0 in their only h2h. He beat Greene 6-0 and is coming into the match with win already under his belt.

5pts Stevens to beat Craigie 4/5 william hill

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never in doubt with Peifan Lei Stevens match is actually this evening. Had a quick look at the afternoon matches and will take Cahill to beat Highfield. Highfields form has been pants recently, losing to Hugill at the Turkish and Michael White, he lost 4-1 to him. The win over Selby was impressive but it came at a time that Selby has come out with his mental issues. Cahill has looked decent in his two wins over O'Neill and Davis. He was 5-4 down to Davis and battled back. I wonder if Highfield has it in him today.

4pts Cahill to beat Highfield 13/8 paddypower

[charliepie]

Lei did well at a nice price! I fancied Milkins to keep his run going @ 6/5

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Just now, charliepie said:

Lei did well at a nice price! I fancied Milkins to keep his run going @ 6/5

yeah me too but I didn't want to stick all my eggs in one basket as I already have him to qualify and Yupeng can be a dangerous player. Looking good though at 3-0.

[charliepie]

Forgot about yr outright, David Grace has been progressing nicely under the radar so far...

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9 minutes ago, charliepie said:

Forgot about yr outright, David Grace has been progressing nicely under the radar so far...

Yeah, must admit I didn't see him beating Guodong. 4-1 up now and winner plays Perry or Page. Both are looking terrible right now.

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Stevens through without a fuss. Jackson Page through to the last hurdle. He looked awful at times but he got it together and looked good at the end. Fingers crossed he can beat Guodong or Grace.

Tomorrow and Wednesday will decide the 16 qualifiers. 

[charliepie]

Ya, Perry was poop today. Glad that Matthew won, I was always sad that he never managed to beat his buddy Mark for the Worlds. Maybe Grace's run will come to an end next round:-)