World Championships (inc Qualifiers)

[dcurry1]

Selt will win today, great price around 4/5

[Fader]

I'm going to take Tom Ford to beat Jamie Jones today. 5 head to head matches played and he has won them all. I wouldn't say either is playing brilliantly but that head-to-head is enough to push me over the line for the handicap bet, as it's a best of 19 now. I'll also take a accy chance.

4pts Ford (-1.5 frames) to beat Jamie Jones evens paddypower
1pt accy - Ford -1.5 / Lilley +4.5 / Hoatian -1.5 / O'Connor - 10/1 paddypower (money back if one loses)

[charliepie]

Lilley already 7-4 up so that's come in, he might even win the match! Ford's going to have to go some to recover from 3-8 though and o'connor struggling a bit too.

Selt's match could go all the way too...

Edited April 12, 2022 by charliepie

[Fader]

Ford was shocking. Embarrassing performance. Poor tip. 
 

michael white through though.

9/1 winner for anybody following

[Fader]

Final day of qualifications then. We have 2 outright qualification bets open. Milkins and Page. I think Milkins wins but Page just isn't scoring consistent enough and I do worry about him today. Huge price of 22/1 so fingers crossed he turns up. 12/5 on the Milkins bet.

In terms of betting for today, if I didn't have the outright on Page then I would probably bet on Grace. I will just take a 4-fold today. Money back at Paddy if one loses. I'm going to take a punt on Hamilton to beat Gilbert as Gilberts form coming into these matches was poor and Hamilton wont bottle it at the finish line like some others would.

2pts Hamilton to beat Gilbert 5/2 paddypower
2pts Grace, Milkins & Sijun 5/1 paddypower
1pt outsider Hamilton, Stevens and Sijun 15/1 paddypower

[Fader]

Go on Page!! 22/1 winner to add to the 9/1 yesterday 

[Fader]

Welsh fans very much catered for at The Crucible. 

Jamie Jones, Michael White, Page, Clarke and Stevens all through to add to Williams in the first round draw, tomorrow at 11am.

[charliepie]

That's some going to land a 22/1 and a 9/1 shot!! I was just thinking the same thing re the Welsh boys, hope they all avoid drawing Willo:-) Ding often seems to run into Ronnie so hope he avoids him in the last 32. No easy draws really, guess they will want to avoid the big 5 though Selby has been vulnerable lately.

[Fader]

The draw is at 11am but that's just for the 16 qualifiers and we already know the top and bottom half draw based on seedings of the other 16 players. I will take my outrights before the draw.

I'm reluctantly going to go with Kyren Wilson as one of my bets this Worlds. I say reluctantly because I think he has a real problem getting over the line and when things get tight. He is having a good season though and so many other players I'm happy to put a line through. It's quite a mad tournament when you think Roberson hasn't performed here for a good while, Trump is out of form, Ronnie you'd have to question the commitment. Selby mental issues, Higgins final'itis and then you come to Wilson. Like I say above, he has his own issues but 16/1 is a fair price.

Next up, Mark Williams. Another from the top half. That performance against Ronnie was very good and it's probably about 60% of the reason for the bet. He has had a decent season really and he is on the curve up with his form. One thing you will not get is a lack of bottle with Williams. Finally, in the top half, I will take McGill. Comes alive at the Worlds every year.

Bottom half, I would say Ronnie is a good shout really if he plays like he did against Williams but 5/1 isn't big enough for me to bet on anybody here. I'm going to take a chance on two big prices of players who have it within them,  have the bottle but not the form. Murphy and Allen. Both far too big and could show up and spoil these odds.

2pts e/w K.Wilson to win Worlds 16/1 bet365
--------------------------------------------------
1.5pts e/w M.Williams to win Worlds 33/1 bet365
1.5pts e/w M.Allen to win Worlds 33/1 paddypower
1.5pts e/w S.Murphy to win Worlds 33/1 paddypower
--------------------------------------------------
1pt e/w A.McGill to win Worlds 50/1 bet365

[Fader]

Some cracking first round ties :

1st Round
Xintong Vs Clarke
Trump Vs Vafaei
Robertson Vs Hugill
Bingtao Vs Wakelin
Higgins Vs Un-Nooh
K.Wilson Vs Ding
Hawkins Vs Page
Selby Vs J.Jones
McGill Vs Highfield
Murphy Vs Maguire
Williams Vs White
Allen Vs Donaldson
O'Sullivan Vs Gilbert
Bingham Vs Haotian
Lisowski Vs Stevens
Brecel Vs Saengkham

[Foo_Fighter]

1 hour ago, Fader said:

Some cracking first round ties :

1st Round
Xintong Vs Clarke
Trump Vs Vafaei
Robertson Vs Hugill
Bingtao Vs Wakelin
Higgins Vs Un-Nooh
K.Wilson Vs Ding
Hawkins Vs Page
Selby Vs J.Jones
McGill Vs Highfield
Murphy Vs Maguire
Williams Vs White
Allen Vs Donaldson
O'Sullivan Vs Gilbert
Bingham Vs Haotian
Lisowski Vs Stevens
Brecel Vs Saengkham

My picks in bold.

[Fader]

Some cracking first round ties :

1st Round
Xintong Vs Clarke
Trump Vs Vafaei
Robertson Vs Hugill
Bingtao Vs Wakelin
Higgins Vs Un-Nooh
K.Wilson Vs Ding
Hawkins Vs Page
Selby Vs J.Jones
McGill Vs Highfield
Murphy Vs Maguire
Williams Vs White
Allen Vs Donaldson
O'Sullivan Vs Gilbert
Bingham Vs Haotian
Lisowski Vs Stevens
Brecel Vs Saengkham

I will go with the above

[charliepie]

1st Round
Xintong Vs Clarke
Trump Vs Vafaei
Robertson Vs Hugill
Bingtao Vs Wakelin
Higgins Vs Un-Nooh
K.Wilson Vs Ding
Hawkins Vs Page
Selby Vs J.Jones
McGill Vs Highfield
Murphy Vs Maguire
Williams Vs White
Allen Vs Donaldson
O'Sullivan Vs Gilbert
Bingham Vs Haotian
Lisowski Vs Stevens
Brecel Vs Saengkham

Just for a laugh, hoping for a few topsy turvy results! Poor old Theppy getting Higgins again but he can beat him. First round always a potential banana skin, some of the qualifiers were flying but change of venue and big crowds usually brings them back down to earth! I'd probably be happy if 4 or 5 qualifiers get through the first round. "Best of friends" Murphy and Maguire square-off again:-)

[Fader]

37 minutes ago, charliepie said:

1st Round
Xintong Vs Clarke
Trump Vs Vafaei
Robertson Vs Hugill
Bingtao Vs Wakelin
Higgins Vs Un-Nooh
K.Wilson Vs Ding
Hawkins Vs Page
Selby Vs J.Jones
McGill Vs Highfield
Murphy Vs Maguire
Williams Vs White
Allen Vs Donaldson
O'Sullivan Vs Gilbert
Bingham Vs Haotian
Lisowski Vs Stevens
Brecel Vs Saengkham

Just for a laugh, hoping for a few topsy turvy results! Poor old Theppy getting Higgins again but he can beat him. First round always a potential banana skin, some of the qualifiers were flying but change of venue and big crowds usually brings them back down to earth! I'd probably be happy if 4 or 5 qualifiers get through the first round. "Best of friends" Murphy and Maguire square-off again:-)

wow you'd get about 5million to 1 with that accy haha

[charliepie]

Haha, wishful thinking I know. The Crucible tends to have such a large negative effect on the less seasoned players but it's not unthinkable that we could have 4 or 5 qualifiers getting to the last 16.

[Fader]

12 hours ago, charliepie said:

Haha, wishful thinking I know. The Crucible tends to have such a large negative effect on the less seasoned players but it's not unthinkable that we could have 4 or 5 qualifiers getting to the last 16.

would love to see an open tournament and based on recent results then it wouldn't be that much of a shock if a few of them got through. Just Worlds seems to be a different kind of nervousness for the players. Even for the likes of Robertson, A few "big" players have not performed here atall, which is a big surprise. 

[Fader]

I think I had this bet last year too but with every match being a first to 10, I'll take this again. It's a fun bet to follow. Last year it only last a day I think but if it gets past the weekend then it's on. 

4pts A century break in every match of the tournament 13/2 

[Fader]

Day 1 on Saturday. Here is the line up :

Selby Vs Jones
Xintong Vs Clarke
Hawkins Vs Page
O'Sullivan Vs Gilbert
Murphy Vs Maguire

Interested to see the Murphy/Maguire match to see where Murphy is at. I'll take Ronnie to hit 3+ centuries against Gilbert. I watched Gilbert in a couple of his matches in qualification and he gave chances and I think Ronnie is hitting some form. He has a great chance in this event and he's got a nice draw. I think all the favourites win tomorrow. 

4pts Ronnie to hit 3+ centuries against Gilbert 9/4 paddypower
2pts McGill, Williams, Bingham and K.Wilson all to win 3/1 paddypower

[charliepie]

I remember that century bet from last year, can't remember which match sunk it though:-) Can only see 11/2 @365 for it now. Maybe we'll have better luck with it this year, the century count will probably be close to the record number.

[Torque]

On 4/14/2022 at 3:27 PM, Fader said:

wow you'd get about 5million to 1 with that accy haha

Not far off @Fader it's about 8 million to 1. I think I'll swerve that bet as I don't think it'll land.  

I will back a few outsiders though and also take them all in a tiny acca bearing in mind the tiny chance of success. I'm starting with Jones to beat Selby. Jones is a very capable player and I couldn't back Selby here when he's talking about turning up and giving it a go. That doesn't inspire much confidence plus he must be rusty having skipped the last couple of tournaments whilst Jones has warmed up nicely in qualies. Next I'll back your best friend right now @Fader and that's Page against Hawkins. Hawkins has the pedigree but he also has the scars of many bad defeats and Page will probably see this as a free hit as he'll know he's not expected to win. He's young and hungry and doesn't have the scars that Hawkins has, and after Cahill beat O'Sullivan in the first round the other year there's no reason why Page can't deliver what would be a much less shocking result. Last up I'm taking Gilbert to beat O'Sullivan. As just mentioned, Ronnie can be vulnerable early in any tournament and Gilbert is no mug when it comes to this tournament. His form could be better no doubt, but I wouldn't be that surprised if he wins this.

20pts Gilbert to beat O'Sullivan @ 3.75 365

15pts Jones to beat Selby @ 5.00 365

5pts Page to beat Hawkins @ 5.00 365

1pt Gilbert/Jones/Page to win @ 93.75 365

[Torque]

16 hours ago, Fader said:

I think I had this bet last year too but with every match being a first to 10, I'll take this again. It's a fun bet to follow. Last year it only last a day I think but if it gets past the weekend then it's on. 

4pts A century break in every match of the tournament 13/2 

I'm tailing this but as @charliepie said best price now looks like being 6.5 rather than the 7.5 you got. Hopefully that's still worth taking and if nothing else it gives an interest in every match - or at least in every match until there's a losing match. Fingers crossed though it should have a good chance as scoring does seem to have been better this season compared to last season when this bet went down early.

[Fader]

Ah ok, the price I got was a boosted one with paddy power. Good luck with the outsiders. Page is ultra attacking so if they go in then I can see him winning. I’m intrigued to see how Selby goes. If he wins relatively easy then you could see him really shorten up in price. 

[charliepie]

I do have a good feeling about the century in every match bet this year! Last year Williams/Craigie & Jones/Maguire let us down but as you say this season the centuries have been flying in so every chance. Jones has probably blown his chance as he really should be leading against Selby if he'd taken his chances.

[Torque]

31 minutes ago, charliepie said:

I do have a good feeling about the century in every match bet this year! Last year Williams/Craigie & Jones/Maguire let us down but as you say this season the centuries have been flying in so every chance. Jones has probably blown his chance as he really should be leading against Selby if he'd taken his chances.

Yeah Jones looks done. Would need to win 7-3 or better from here. Can't see it but then I thought the same when Robertson needed to win 7-1 or better to come back against Higgins. Fair to say that Jones isn't Robertson though so I'll be very surprised if Selby doesn't progress.

[Fader]

Century bet good so far. We’ve had one in each of the in play matches

[Torque]

Poor from Gilbert. 3-0 up then loses 6 in a row. O'Sullivan didn't really have to do too much either. At least Page is in a good position but will he be able to get over the line 

[charliepie]

Murphy should stick to the commentary box from now on! I'm not feeling as good about the centuries bet with those two duffers slogging it out. Jamie Jones really should have done better but at least Action is in a good position to progress tomorrow.

[charliepie]

Did Maguire hit a century then, I must have missed it!

[Foo_Fighter]

@Fader @Torque @charliepie I've found Xintong (-1.5 frames handicap) to beat Clarke at 1.3 on my local bookie. This is a huge(?) mistake, isn't it? 

[Fader]

10 hours ago, charliepie said:

Murphy should stick to the commentary box from now on! I'm not feeling as good about the centuries bet with those two duffers slogging it out. Jamie Jones really should have done better but at least Action is in a good position to progress tomorrow.

My comment was pre Murphy Maguire. Blimey those two were awful.