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gg-77

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  1. Like
    gg-77 reacted to Swiss Maestro in Tennis Tips - October 3 - October 9   
    Wow! It takes a lot of value to bet on Aslan at this particular moment. He's in a disastrous losing streak (1-9) and he even lost in Tel Aviv to Etcheverry, a player who only has won 2 ATP main draw matches on hard in his entire career (the other win is against another pure claycourter, Facundo Mena...). 
    Now, add to that the Aslan's dark record of match f*****  and you definitely will get an explosive cocktail. I have censored the word but all the punters who know Aslan will know what word goes there.
    Well, Khachanov was impressive in the US Open and he's really good playing on hard indoor courts. Actually, the only Masters 1000 he has won is played on indoors (2018 Paris Masters). Something you should be worried about if you want to bet on him is why he neither played in Metz nor Tel Aviv. Did he want to rest? Or it was some kind of physical problem? Who knows... but it's been a month since his last match. Cressy returned in Tel Aviv after his injury during his first round match in the US Open. He beat Korda in straight sets and that was a pretty convincing victory... Then, he lost to Lestienne in 3 tight sets (7-6, 3-6, 6-7). He was impressive on serve (he only faced 1 BP in the whole match). 
    Honestly, it's really hard to predict. Cressy will give no rhythm to Karen. IMO, this is the kind of match you shouldn't get involved unless the odds are really good.
    In relation to the Cilic-Otte match, it's another match with some red flags. Cilic is playing good and he reached the Final in Tel Aviv. Otte reached the doubles final in Sofia..., so I can say neither Cilic nor Otte will have the proper training for their first round match here. If you think Cilic can play well 2 straight weeks then that's your player. In any case, it's a match with some red flags for the reasons I've explained. EDIT. I forgot to mention the horrible losing streak of Otte in singles, but I'm sure you are aware of that.
    Finally, the Evans' match. I think he should beat Albot easily. It would be a surprise if he lost to him.
  2. Like
    gg-77 reacted to Smiles Tennis in Tennis Tips - June 6 - June 12   
    Few morning picks. Mertens is several classes above Sanders and doesn't usually lose early in tournaments to players she shouldn't. She can have the odd mind mess but I make her a bit shorter than 1.36 so I will take that. 
    Raducanu I make about 1.7 so going with Golubic here. Golubic can play on grass, Raducanu has struggled for form recently and can't win many matches in a row. She won't have the crowd like at Wimbledon behind her so I think 1.53 or whatever she is is a bit short. 
    Linette leads the h2h here but two were from a long time ago. Kawa reached the final in Bonita Springs and got through qualifying here so has a bit of grass practice in the bag. Linette should take it but is a bit short that what I thought so going with Kawa.
    Zheng vs Bucsa I make Zheng a bit shorter than 1.49 so taking that value. Bucsa come through qualifying  but struggled against Bains. Zheng looks out of form with recent losses but they're on clay and were to decent players, Sabalenka, Giorgi, Halep etc, She won in Lyon on the faster surface so should be more comfortable here. 
     

  3. Like
    gg-77 got a reaction from CzechPunter in Tennis Tips - April 25 - May 1   
    Trevisan lost the 2nd set from 5-3 up and missed 3 set points. If she had won maybe Kanepi would not try as much in the 3rd but we never know. I'm on Burel too lets see if this is going to work out ?
  4. Haha
    gg-77 got a reaction from CzechPunter in Australian Open 2022   
    Is this Emma Raducanu or Monica Niculescu? Ugly tennis.
  5. Like
    gg-77 got a reaction from Foo_Fighter in PDC World Championships 2022   
    You are right.
    I love Gary but I just don't trust him. He is older, he is playing back to back while Rob has rested one day between. Also he's pulling down a little hence his 180s are fallen a lot. He was a machine at T20 not so much anymore. So it makes him vulnarable a lot and I don't believe he is going to turn them up suddenly.
    But he is a champion and you can never underestimate a champion here.
    Let's see
  6. Like
    gg-77 reacted to BillyDuke1989 in Serie A Predictions > Nov 20th - 22nd   
    Atalanta vs. Spezia
    Atalanta, with 22 points scored, is fourth in the tournament. She is three points behind the third position, and the pursuers are located very close.
    During the 12 meetings held in the current Serie A, the Bergamasks have won six victories, drew four times and lost twice. They come up to this game with a 5-match unbeaten streak.
    In this segment, the hosts managed to get two victories and drew three times. Their lag behind the leader Napoli is measured by 10 points.
    Earlier in the Champions League they drew 2-2 at home with Manchester United, and in the last game of the championship they beat Cagliari 2-1 at home.
    With 11 points,  Spezia took the 16th position in the Serie A standings, just two points ahead of the relegation zone.
    Over the entire tournament distance, the Firefighters achieved three victorious results, they drew two fights and suffered as many as seven defeats.
    Before the last round, the team did not know victories in three matches in a row, losing in two of them - Sampdoria 1-2 and Fiorentina 0-3.
    The unsuccessful streak was interrupted in the last match, in which the team at home defeated Torino 1-0 with a minimal result.
    My prediction and bet - Atalanta will win and both teams to score in 2.45.
  7. Like
    gg-77 reacted to Charon84 in NFL - Week 5   
    I'm continuing with my "follow the money" system. I runned that system along with some other systems the first weeks, but this system is the only working system for now. I use sites to get a decent feel about the cash/ticket split. I.e. in week 3 Bengals (+3.0) had 30% of bets (tickets) against Steelers, but that generated 70% of cash just before kickoff. In week 4 WFT (-1.5) had 55% of bets (tickets) against Falcons, but that generated 86% of cash just before kickoff. With that info I'm going to analyze the game further. Why is the 'big money' on them? Do I agree? So far the system runs 4-0. 
  8. Like
    gg-77 got a reaction from delfino in US Open 2021   
    cmon guys i think you a little over-reacting about nole here.
    this year he demolished everyone everywhere when he is fully fit. something happened to him in the olympics and he wasn't at his best even when beating zverev in the semis, he did just enough and yesterday obviously he wasn't at his full capacity.
    i think next year he really has a shot at getting all 4. he will just focus on grand slams no olympics or anything. probably no covid restrictions and full crowd. now he has the experience of this pressure as well. we all know how crazy these 3 players are and nole is the most freak one.
    everyone seems to forget last 10 years in one match. he will be ruthless in 2022 just wait.
  9. Like
    gg-77 got a reaction from bet4fun in US Open 2021   
    cmon guys i think you a little over-reacting about nole here.
    this year he demolished everyone everywhere when he is fully fit. something happened to him in the olympics and he wasn't at his best even when beating zverev in the semis, he did just enough and yesterday obviously he wasn't at his full capacity.
    i think next year he really has a shot at getting all 4. he will just focus on grand slams no olympics or anything. probably no covid restrictions and full crowd. now he has the experience of this pressure as well. we all know how crazy these 3 players are and nole is the most freak one.
    everyone seems to forget last 10 years in one match. he will be ruthless in 2022 just wait.
  10. Like
    gg-77 got a reaction from CzechPunter in US Open 2021   
    cmon guys i think you a little over-reacting about nole here.
    this year he demolished everyone everywhere when he is fully fit. something happened to him in the olympics and he wasn't at his best even when beating zverev in the semis, he did just enough and yesterday obviously he wasn't at his full capacity.
    i think next year he really has a shot at getting all 4. he will just focus on grand slams no olympics or anything. probably no covid restrictions and full crowd. now he has the experience of this pressure as well. we all know how crazy these 3 players are and nole is the most freak one.
    everyone seems to forget last 10 years in one match. he will be ruthless in 2022 just wait.
  11. Sad
    gg-77 got a reaction from CzechPunter in Tennis Tips - June 21 - June 27   
    Ah Bublik had a low percentage of 1st serve in wonder why. ?
     
  12. Thanks
    gg-77 reacted to darko08 in Tennis Tips - June 21 - June 27   
    Simona Waltert to beat Oceane Dodin at 4.00 with bet365
    I have seen some matches from the young swiss player this year and she has impressed me. I saw her in the Altenkirchen ITF, a tournament played on indoors. She played really well there and she destroyed Golubic in the SFs (6-4, 6-2). She lost the Final against Tauson but she took a set from her. Before that she won an ITF tournament played in Manacor in January. In April she reached the SFs in 2 ITF tournaments played on clay and she beat decent players as Hesse, Lottner, Fett, Xiyu Wang, Minella and Barthel. She has beat Ruse easily in her first match here (6-2, 6-2) and she was at 3.00. It has been her first match on grass as a professional but it's important to remark that her best result in a GS as junior was in Wimbledon 2017. She reached the SFs and she lost against Ann Li (7-6, 6-1). She has a really good record this year (29-11). Dodin also has a game that suits really well on fast courts but her record this year is bad (11-16). What shocks me is that she has lost a lot of matches being a huge favorite. Shinikova (6.50), U.Radwanska (4.00), Jia-Jing Lu (5.50), Kung (3.00), Grabher (3.00), Mrdeza (2.00), Hibino (2.20), Paquet (3.00), Stojanovic (2.60) and Rodionova (2.90) are some of the players that have beat Dodin this year. She has a good record on grass (17-16) but she never has passed the qualification here (2019, 2018, 2016 and 2015). The only time she played in the main draw here was in 2017 (she did not play the qualification) and she lost in the 1R. She has suffered too much in her first match here against Eva Guerrero (7-6, 6-3) despite being a huge favorite (1.11). These players met for the first time 1 month ago, in Strasbourg, and Dodin beat Waltert in straight sets (6-4, 7-5). I did not see this match but after taking a look at the stats I can say it was a hard battle. The only difference was that Dodin converted 5 of the 7 break opportunities she had while Waltert only converted 3 of the 10 break points she had. These players have some similarities. Both are tall players (1.80-1.83) who practice an aggressive style of playing but Waltert's record this year (29-11) is much more impressive so I think Dodin (11-16) shouldn't be with these odds.
  13. Like
    gg-77 reacted to ProfessorMJ in NFL TOP PICKS BY STATS PROFESSOR WEEK 13   
    Written Thursday December 25th, 2020 at 11 a.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
     
    Last week, we had a couple of 5-star picks, which was highly unusual!
    Bucs +3.5 vs Chiefs (won the bet, but deserved to lose in my opinion);
    Giants -5.5 at Bengals (lost the bet, but we got screwed by: a) Daniel Jones’ injury; b) a TD on a kickoff return by Cincy; c) a bogus PI penalty that allowed a garbage TD late in the fourth quarter).
    Our record on 5-star picks:
    3-2 this season
    8-4 past three years
    Overall, last week was a lucrative one: a 4-2 record on official picks and a perfect 2-0 on leans.
    We have been on fire recently with a 10-5-2 ATS record since Week 10.
    Let’s keep rolling, folks!!!
     
    PICK #1 (4 STARS): CLEVELAND BROWNS +6 AT TENNESSEE TITANS
    I’ve said it a few times this year, and I’ll say it again. In my opinion, the Titans are a good team to bet as underdogs, but they’re a good team to fade as favorites. As a matter of fact, they have beaten the spread just two times the last seven games they were established as favorites.
    My main concern about this game is Cleveland’s pass defense. They were already without Greedy Williams, and now their other starting cornerback Denzel Ward seems on the wrong side of questionable for Sunday. That could open up the field for A.J. Brown.
    Other than that, I like the Browns here. To me, the spread is way too high. Cleveland should be fine running the ball against Tennessee, whose defense has been average. Meanwhile, the Browns are fairly strong defending the run and they are welcoming back stud defensive end Myles Garrett this weekend.
    The revenge factor comes into play as well. I’m sure Baker Mayfield and company remember last year’s season opener, a game in which Cleveland got hammered 43-to-13 at home against Tennessee. Mayfield threw three interceptions in that game, but that won’t happen this time.
    For these reasons, I’m backing Cleveland as 6-point underdogs as my top play in Week 13.
    PICK #2 (3 STARS): SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +1 VS BUFFALO BILLS
    San Francisco’s defense is quickly getting back to form. After undergoing a rash of injuries, they have gotten some players back, which has shown on the field. Last week, they bottled up a good Rams offense and allowed just 14 first downs.
    Buffalo QB Josh Allen usually makes a mix of great and bad plays. I expect him to make a few mistakes that will cost his team this Monday. He is also still missing wide receiver John Brown; the offense is good, but not as great when Brown is out of the lineup.
    I have spoken a few times this year about how researchers have shown that peak athletic performance occurs during the late afternoon or early evening. For this reason, a West Coast team gets an advantage when playing a night game against a team from the East Coast.
    Each team’s record on Monday Night Football is at opposite ends: Buffalo is 0-3-1 ATS versus 13-3 for the Niners. San Francisco also holds an impressive 7-3 ATS record at home when facing a team with a winning record.
    The key to this game will be San Francisco’s running game who should be able to exploit a weak Buffalo run defense, who ranks 27th in the league in terms of yards allowed per carry. With Raheem Mostert back from an injury, I believe he will run wild and cause headaches to the Bills.
    PICK #3 (3 STARS): LOS ANGELES RAMS -2.5 AT ARIZONA CARDINALS
    Kyler Murray’s throwing shoulder is hurt. He didn’t look as sharp as usual last week in New England. Coincidence or not, he ran for a season-low five times both of the past two weeks. I suspect he doesn’t want to take more hits to lower the risk of aggravating his injury.
    After a hot start, the Cards are definitely stumbling. They have won just one of their last four matchups, and the lone win should have been a loss, if not for a miracle Hail Mary pass on the last play of the game against the Bills.
    Jared Goff tends to struggle when he feels pressure, otherwise he is super efficient. I expect him to have a clean pocket this Sunday, given Arizona’s pass rush who is not that great.
    I also like the three-headed monster at the running back position for the Rams: Darrell Henderson, Malcolm Brown and rookie Cam Akers.
    Los Angeles has rebounded with a win after each of their three losses in 2020. Also note that the Rams have beaten the spread the last five times they made a trip to Arizona.
    Another reason for taking the Rams in this contest is the mismatch on defense. Los Angeles’ defense has been great, both against the run and the pass. As for Arizona, they have a middle of the pack defense.
    PICK #4 (2 STARS): INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -3 AT HOUSTON TEXANS
    The Colts are not intimidated from playing in Houston at all: they are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight meetings there.
    Indy is also a team that can rebound nicely after poor performances. Indeed, they have posted an incredible 6-0-1 ATS record after double-digit home losses. Last week, they got beaten up 45-26 against the Titans.
    I am aware that the Texans will benefit from three additional days of rest after playing on Thanksgiving, but the team suffered a HUGE blow when their top wide receiver (Will Fuller V) and their top cornerback (Bradley Roby) got hit with six-game suspensions for violating the league’s PEDs policy. With Randall Cobb already out and Kenny Stills being waived about a week ago, that will put the wide receiver depth to the test.
    I expect Indy’s defense to respond strongly after such a poor outing last week. With Deshaun Watson having less weapons at his disposal, he’ll need to do a Superman impersonation in order to keep his team afloat. I don’t think it will happen.
    Houston’s defense has been awful both against the run and the pass, while the Colts should get running back Jonathan Taylor back. I am worried about the Colts possibly being without their star left tackle Anthony Castonzo, but I’m still putting my money on Indy to do everything they can to keep up with the Titans for the AFC South title.
    PICK #5 (2 STARS): SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -10 VS NEW YORK GIANTS
    Last Monday, I posted an alert in my Facebook group and to people on my mailing list about a great bargain. The Seahawks were tagged as 7.5-point favorites at Bet365 at the time, while some bookies had a line of 10 points. I put a fairly big bet, then I let everyone know about this nice deal, and the line moved to 9, and then 10 points within an hour. No matter if the bet wins or loses, this was clearly a good value wager.
    Now that the dust has settled, I still think Seattle -10 points is an enticing play. According to the latest reports, Daniel Jones seems unlikely to play. His backup, Colt McCoy, is simply horrible. He’s been bad throughout his 11-year career, and that’s not about to change. He couldn’t get the offense going last week against a weak Cincinnati defense.
    I love how Seattle matches up well with the Giants. With McCoy under center, New York will need their running game to get going, but that should prove very difficult considering the Seahawks defense is 3rd in the NFL in terms of yards allowed per carry. That will force McCoy into long third downs, and the result will be catastrophic.
    On the other side of the ball, New York’s strength on defense is its run defense. Unfortunately for them, Seattle has a guy named Russell Wilson at quarterback who is ready to shred their pass defense.
    Seattle wins by at least two touchdowns and beats the spread.
    UNOFFICIAL PICKS
    For entertainment purposes, here are some leans for you:
    LEAN #1: Chargers +1 vs Patriots (This is a passing league, and there is a huge gap between New England’s and Los Angeles’ passing offenses. Cam Newton is banged up and his team will be travelling through three time zones to play this game.);
    LEAN #2: Broncos +14 at Chiefs (The weakness of K.C.’s defense is its run defense, so I think Denver can find a way to run efficiently and run out the clock a little bit. On the other side of the ball, Denver’s pass defense is among the top 10 and could limit the damage against Mahomes and company. The Broncos are 1-9 ATS in the last 10 meetings with the Chiefs, but they are a perfect 7-0 ATS after scoring 14 points or less! Drew Lock will be back under center.);
    LEAN #3: Dolphins -11 vs Bengals (I hope Ryan Fitzpatrick remains the starter because he is better than Tua right now. Good luck to QB Brandon Allen against a stifling Dolphins pass defense! Miami could welcome back running backs Myles Gaskin and/or Salvon Ahmed);
    LEAN #4: Washington +8.5 at Steelers (Pittsburgh is not nearly as good as its record indicate. Man, they played badly against the Ravens last Wednesday! Washington is fighting hard every week and they are playing sound football for head coach Ron Rivera. It won’t be an easy task for the Steelers to beat them by 9 points or more).

     
    A big thank you for reading this column every week, I hope to help you beat your bookie!
    Professor MJ
    https://youtu.be/7RFlJpe3P4E
  14. Like
    gg-77 reacted to Valiant Thor in VT's NFL Selections   
    WEEK 11
    Think Ive found the problem, The date and time for the games downloaded from 1 site were causing an error when looking for the odds on another site due to time/date of game being changed or in a different format. (times and dates for the games have been published in advance and any changes are beyond my control)
    Anyway see how it goes .
    **Weeks 9 & 10 will be missing from the Season to Date results as no selections were made due to no spreads being recorded.**

    Just the NAP bet this week
  15. Like
    gg-77 reacted to ProfessorMJ in TOP 5 NFL PICKS by Stats Prof for Week 10   
    Written Tuesday November 10th, 2020 at 11 a.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
    A dreadful 0-3 performance for the picks last week. Ouch!
    That does not shake my confidence at all. Bad weeks will invariably occur every season; they are part of the sports betting game.
    Never go too high during winning streaks and never go too low in bad times.
    Let’s roll up our sleeves and get back on the winning track! Here are 4 picks for you.
    PICK #1 (4 STARS): PITTSBURGH STEELERS -3.5 FIRST HALF VS CINCINNATI BENGALS
    The news that Ben Roethlisberger was placed on the COVID-19 list broke not very long before I posted this article. The line might change depending on Big Ben’s status, but no matter what I’ll take Pittsburgh in the first half. If he misses the game, the spread will be smaller, obviously.
    Some factors that I regularly look at are favoring the Bengals. First, the rest factor. Cincy is coming off its bye week, but statistical studies have shown that the best NFL teams use this extra time much more efficiently than weaker ones. Since the Bengals are not among the top tier, the bye week effect won’t be as large.
    Secondly, there’s the revenge factor. The Bengals lost both meetings to Pittsburgh last year.
    Also, big road underdogs who have been established underdogs for 4+ straight games have done well against the spread in the past.
    So why the heck am I taking the Steelers? And why for the first half only?
    Pittsburgh had a letdown game in Dallas last week. They took the Cowboys lightly and needed a late comeback to secure the win.
    Now facing a division rival, head coach Mike Tomlin will make sure his big boys will be storming out of the gate. I expect a fast start from his squad.
    I prefer taking Pittsburgh in the first half because Joe Burrow is capable of scoring 1-2 touchdown(s) late in the fourth quarter to cover the spread after trailing by a good margin.
    In the last 9 matchups where the Steelers were at home facing a team with a losing record, they beat the spread on 7 occasions.
    No need to remind me that Cincy lost four games by a 5-point margin or less, nor that Pittsburgh won four games by that same margin. I am aware that both teams have been involved in many tight games. That’s precisely why many people will jump on the Bengals train.
    However, on paper we have a huge mismatch favoring the home team on both sides of the ball, and yet that home team was only a touchdown favorite before the line went off the board after the Roethlisberger news (which means it will be even lower if he’s out).
    Defensively, Cincy ranks dead last in yards-per-carry average allowed, while Pittsburgh is 9th in that category. As for opposing team’s passer rating, the Bengals rank 13th versus 2nd for the Steelers.
    On offense, I like what Joe Burrow has done but he’s still a rookie about to face a tough defense. Remember what happened when he faced the Ravens’ defense in a 27-to-3 loss.
    To make matters worse, 4 out of the 5 Bengals starting offensive linemen are listed as questionable. You don’t want your offensive line being banged up when facing Pittsburgh’s stout defense.
    PICK #2 (3 STARS): BUFFALO BILLS +2 AT ARIZONA CARDINALS
    Is the Bills defense back to its 2018 and 2019 form where they were a top five unit?
    Not yet, but they took nice steps last week. That might sound weird after allowing 34 points, but that was against the potent Seahawks offense. Buffalo’s defense was able to pressure Russell Wilson and he ended the game with his worst QB rating of the 2020 season.
    On Arizona’s side, their defense was supposed to be pretty weak this year, but they have done a fine job thus far. I’m afraid they might regress, and having two starting cornerbacks, Byron Murphy and Dre Kirkpatrick, listed as questionable is worrisome when you are about to face the great WR trio of Stefon Diggs, John Brown and Cole Beasley.
    You may want to keep an eye on the injury status of stud cornerback Tre’Davious White, though. He left the game against Seattle with an ankle injury and did not return. Head coach Sean McDermott called it a day-to-day injury, so I feel like he’s more likely to suit up than not.
    Over their last 8 meetings as road underdogs, the Bills hold a nice 5-1-2 ATS record.
    Meanwhile, Arizona has beaten the spread just once in the past six games where they were home favorites.
    The Cards are at home for the fourth straight week, which boosts their chances of getting the victory. But could they be looking ahead to a critical meeting with the Seahawks next week?
    In summary, I like Buffalo to pick up their eighth win of the season as small underdogs.
    PICK #3 (3 STARS): LOS ANGELES RAMS -1.5 VS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
    After a very hot start to the 2020 season where many experts were calling him the league’s MVP (deservedly so), Russell Wilson has been struggling a bit.
    Wilson’s three worst games, in terms of QB rating, occurred in the last four games. During this time frame, he posted a 12-to-6 TD-to-INT ratio, which is far worse than the 16-to-2 ratio he racked up in the first four matches.
    The Cards and the Bills have shown how to disrupt Wilson. You must blitz and put pressure on him. Aaron Donald and company have sacked opposing quarterbacks 25 times, fifth-highest in the NFL.
    Jared Goff is extremely good when given time to scan the field, especially with such great weapons as Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett. However, when Goff is feeling pressure, he is really awful and he doesn’t seem to know how to escape.
    Which of these two scenarios is the most likely this Sunday? Considering Seattle’s ineptitude to rush opposing QBs this year, Goff has a good chance to have a clean pocket most of the time. L.A.’s offensive line has been nothing short of outstanding in 2020, allowing the second-fewest sacks this year despite having a QB who is not mobile at all.
    Also note that the Seahawks are 2-6 ATS in their past eight trips to Los Angeles.
    The Rams will be well-prepared coming off their bye week. They are also very likely to welcome back on the field their top cornerback, Jalen Ramsey, and their top running back, Darrell Henderson.
    Los Angeles holds a good 5-1-1 ATS record coming off a straight up loss (they were beaten by the Dolphins before their bye week). And they post an identical ATS record in their past seven games as home favorites.
    As if Seattle’s defense needed more bad news, their top two cornerbacks are listed as questionable: Shaquill Griffin and Quinton Dunbar. They might also be without linebacker K.J. Wright, who sprained his ankle in Buffalo last week. Finally, Seattle’s top two running backs, Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde, are still uncertain to suit up.
    PICK #4 (2 STARS): CLEVELAND BROWNS -3 VS HOUSTON TEXANS
    Favorites off their bye week have posted a 36-20-4 ATS record over a four-year span. That’s one of the reasons I’m backing the Browns this weekend. They will also be at home for the third straight week.
    Houston’s defense is just dreadful. They are 31st in yards-per-carry average and 32nd in opposing QBs’ passer rating. It doesn’t get any worse than this.
    Sure, the Texans passing offense is capable of putting up points on the board. Their offensive line is suspect, though. Myles Garrett is licking his chops right now and he could have a huge day. As for the Browns, they quietly have one of the best offensive lines in football.
    Odell Beckham is done for the season, but Nick Chubb could return to the lineup this Sunday, as well as right guard Wyatt Teller.
    The Texans had five guys departing the previous game due to injuries, including linebacker Brennan Scarlett who broke his arm and running back David Johnson who suffered a concussion.
    Houston is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings with Cleveland, but they are 8-20 ATS on the road when facing a team with a winning record. They have also struggled on games played on grass, as shown by their 0-5-1 ATS record recently.
    PICK #5 (1 STAR): CHICAGO BEARS +3 (@ -115 odds, Pinnacle) VS MINNESOTA VIKINGS
    You can either take Chicago +3 at lower odds or +2.5 at higher odds. I recommend taking the former.
    The Vikings have been struggling against Da Bears recently; they are 1-5 ATS in the past six meetings between these two squads. Over their last 17 trips to the windy city, they beat the spread just three times and lost on 14 occasions.
    The difference in Monday night performances between the two teams is staggering. On one hand, Minnesota is 2-12 ATS in such primetime games, while Chicago holds a 4-1 ATS record.
    Moreover, the Bears have posted a 13-4-1 ATS record the last 18 times they were home dogs. That’s remarkable!
    Let me tell you about a betting strategy that favors Chicago in this matchup:
    Bet against a team that intercepted 3+ passes in its previous game, unless that team has a great passing offense and defense.
    Last week, Minnesota picked off the Lions’ quarterbacks three times.
    That being said, when a team intercepts many passes during a game, I believe there are two possibilities:
    1. This team has a great passing attack, forcing its opponent to take chances, which creates more takeaways.
    2. This team picked off many passes due to “good luck” more than defensive skill.
    Do the Vikings fit in the mold of scenario #1? I don’t think so! Both of their offensive and defensive passing games are not great. Racking up three interceptions was much more likely an outlier than anything else.
    From 2013 to Week #7 of the 2020 season, teams that intercepted 3+ passes in their previous contest and were now either underdogs or “small” favorites (i.e. 5 points or less) are 62-81-2 ATS, a 43% win percentage.
    I’m going with the Bears to upset the Vikings on Monday Night Football.
    UNOFFICIAL PICKS
    Want two quick leans for this weekend?
    a) Jaguars +14 at Packers (seems like a trap game for Green Bay, much like the Steelers in Dallas last week, especially after facing two big rivals in Minnesota and San Francisco);
    b) Eagles -3 at Giants (Philly is 10-3 ATS in their past 13 visits in New York, while the G-Men are just 2-12 ATS as home underdogs. However, it could be payback time after a heart-breaking 22-21 loss by New York versus the Eagles in Week 7. The Eagles are coming off their bye week).
    Let’s crush it this week, fellows!!!
    Professor MJ
  16. Like
    gg-77 reacted to Valiant Thor in VT's NFL Selections   
    Not neglecting this thread.
    A couple of weeks ago I changed the code to only get the spreads from uk books (see week 5), I also decided to upgrade the code from python 2 to 3 whilst I was at it and seem to have messed up somewhere along the line (not a pro coder, Im self taught) 
    Been on it on and off for past 2 week and think I should have selections back up and running next week
    Rule to self if its not broke dont mess with it
  17. Haha
    gg-77 got a reaction from CzechPunter in Tennis Tips - November 2 - November 8   
  18. Like
    gg-77 got a reaction from vladisimo2 in Tennis Tips - November 2 - November 8   
    Just an insight Sandgren ran in the snow in Kazakstan without tshirt as a punsihment after losing his match. So he may be motivated.
  19. Haha
    gg-77 got a reaction from vvararu in Tennis Tips - November 2 - November 8   
    Just an insight Sandgren ran in the snow in Kazakstan without tshirt as a punsihment after losing his match. So he may be motivated.
  20. Haha
    gg-77 got a reaction from CzechPunter in Tennis Tips - November 2 - November 8   
    Just an insight Sandgren ran in the snow in Kazakstan without tshirt as a punsihment after losing his match. So he may be motivated.
  21. Like
    gg-77 reacted to ProfessorMJ in TOP 4 NFL Picks by Stats Prof for Week 8 (YES! THE 5-STAR PICK WON LAST WEEK!) Bet Pats or Bills?   
    Written Thursday October 29th, 2020 at 7 a.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
    Yeah, baby!
    The 5-star pick was a winner last week, lifting our record on such plays to a perfect 2-0 record this season!
    Backing the Jets was a bold call, especially considering they were 0-6 against the spread (ATS) this year, but we took them at the right moment.
    Notice how New York was a 13-point underdog when I took them last Thursday, while the line dropped all the way to 9.5 prior to kickoff. That was a huge indication it was a good value bet.
    I’ve got four official picks for you this week, as well as five “leans”. Let’s get going!
    PICK #1 (4 STARS): ATLANTA FALCONS +2 AT CAROLINA PANTHERS
    The Panthers were supposed to be one of the worst NFL teams this season, but surprised many by winning three of their first five games. They have now lost a couple of games in a row, and I would not be surprised if they go on a downward spiral.
    It is still uncertain if Christian McCaffrey will return to the lineup, but even if he does it looks like his ankle is still not 100%.
    Left tackle Russell Okung is a long shot to be available, which would be a big blow to this offensive line. I also believe losing Kawann Short for the rest of the year will have a big negative impact on Carolina’s defensive line. He was a key part of this defense.
    Matt Ryan is the type of quarterback who struggles a lot when pressured, but thrives when given time to scan the field. Carolina ranks dead last in sacks with only six. I expect Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage and Hayden Hurst to shine on Thursday Night Football.
    I also like to pick teams who have lost to the same opponent earlier in the season. That’s the case of the Falcons who lost 23-16 against Carolina three weeks ago. It’s time for some payback!
    Atlanta suffered another mind-boggling loss last week and I really expect them to lash out on their division rivals this Thursday. I wouldn’t be surprised if they won the game by 10 points or more.
     
    PICK #2 (3 STARS): NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +4 AT BUFFALO BILLS
    After a hot start to the 2020 season, the Bills have cooled off in a big way. They were hammered 42-16 in Tennessee before getting stomped by the Chiefs despite a fairly close 26-17 score. Last week’s win over the Jets wasn’t convincing either.
    What I like the most about this prediction is how well the Patriots match up against Buffalo. Let me explain.
    First, let’s think about the case where New England has the ball. Their passing attack has been very inconsistent and they lack playmakers catching the ball. In order to have success, they must run the ball effectively, which happens to be Buffalo’s Achilles’ heel on defense (they rank 23rd in terms of yards-per-rush average).
    Now, how about when the Bills are on offense? Buffalo has the sixth-most passing yards per game this year versus 29th in rushing yards per game. Guess what is New England’s strength on defense? That’s right, their pass defense with Stephon Gilmore and the two McCourtys leading the way.
    Some might also argue that the Pats are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings in Buffalo, but I’m not sure this stat is relevant with Tom Brady gone.
    Without hesitation, I’m going with New England to keep this game close.
     
    PICK #3 (3 STARS): NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -4 AT CHICAGO BEARS
    In today’s NFL, it is hard to win if you cannot throw the ball effectively, unless you are exceptionally good at running the ball like the Baltimore Ravens. Clearly, the Bears have a bad passing attack with Nick Foles posting 6 TD passes and 6 interceptions in five games. And their running game is just as bad: the team ranks last in rushing yards per game.
    Somehow, Chicago rode their defense to go 5-2 thus far in 2020. However, everyone knows they are not that good. Even their defense started to show some signs of weaknesses last week against the Rams, who picked up 24 first downs and 371 total yards.
    Relying on a stifling defense was a good recipe 20-30 years ago. It does not work as well in the modern NFL. Even then, the Bears defense is good, but it’s not a dominant force either. I do believe Sean Payton’s team will be able to move the ball offensively.
    Here are some interesting trends:
    Are you worried about how the Saints will perform on grass this weekend? They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games on grass.
    New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in their last six matchups as road favorites, and 36-17 ATS in their past 53 road games overall.
    Also notice that the Bears are playing on a shorter week due to playing the Monday nighter, a game in which they traveled all the way to Los Angeles.
     
    PICK #4 (1 STAR): NEW YORK JETS +19.5 AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
    No need to discuss the mismatch on paper. We all know how much better the Chiefs are compared to the lowly Jets.
    I’m going with the Jets for a couple of reasons:
    Since the AFL-NFL merger, 13 teams have been favored by 20 points or more. Those teams have gone 13-0 straight up, but just 3-10 ATS. Technically, New York is not a 20-point underdog, but the line opened at 21.5.
    I’ll mention the same stat as last week for those of you who didn’t see my Jets pick against the Bills. Since 1985, six teams have started the season with six straight losses both SU and ATS (which is the case of the Jets in 2020). How did these teams fare in the remainder of their season? They went 34-24 ATS, a 58.6% win rate.
    Personally, I’m holding off before placing a bet on New York. I am waiting to obtain the injury status of wide receivers Jamison Crowder and Breshad Perriman. If both are out, I need a point spread of at least 21 to bet the Jets. Hopefully, at least one of them suits up this Sunday, otherwise Sam Darnold may not have any reliable targets. Granted, I thought rookie Denzel Mims showed promise in his NFL debut against Buffalo last week.
    The Jets also have four offensive linemen who are listed as questionable.
    In other words, depending on who plays and how the point spread changes, I’ll make a decision once I have more information.
     
    UNOFFICIAL PICKS
    For entertainment purposes, here are some leans:
    Bengals +6 vs Titans (Cincy’s five losses were by 3, 3, 4, 5 and 24-point margins, so they kept all games close except against the Ravens);
    49ers +3 at Seahawks (tight divisional matchup and Seattle’s defense is horrendous);
    Steelers +4 at Ravens (don’t like the fact that Baltimore is coming off its bye week though);
    Dolphins +4 vs Rams (too much uncertainty due to Tua’s first start to bet, but the “rest” factor favors Miami in a big way. They are coming off their bye week and have been at home three straight weeks, while the Rams played last Monday night and are now traveling across the country);
    Over 48.5 points Jets vs Chiefs.
    I hope you enjoyed this post, go get your bookie man!!!
    Professor MJ
    Twitter: @DavidBeaudoin79
    FB: ProfessorMJ
    www.professormj.com
    https://youtu.be/NeppsXY9WRQ
  22. Like
    gg-77 reacted to opole in French Open 2020   
    A. Cazaux/H. Mayot 6.90 Pinnacle 4/10
    Kubot and Melo were looking horrendous in Hamburg last week and they faced pretty average team Moraing/Hanfmann (both not great in doubles) and then Peers/Venus battered them in like 30 minutes. Kubot/Melo won like ~ 40 % of their points on serve which is ridiculous for doubles matchplay. They didn't look much better in New York losing Johnson/Krajicek and Vliegen/Gille.
    Cazaux/Mayot is a dangerous upcoming doubles team of prospects. They played together twice on Pro level and despite losing both matches in 2020 they were looking decent for one set against world class team like Mahut/Pospisil (even a break up there 3-1 in the first set). Both also played together on Junior level reaching the Quarterfinals at the 2020 Australian Open, 2019 US Open, 2019 French Open. They played together as Juniors and had some great success together so i assume they should be well adapted to each other on court.
    This is definitely more a fade of Kubot and Melo rather than a play on Cazaux and Mayot but i like them a lot on court so i guess i like it even more to bet on them and to fade Kubot/Melo at the same time. 
  23. Like
    gg-77 reacted to Valiant Thor in VT's NFL Selections   
    Just the 2 Bets this week
  24. Like
    gg-77 reacted to Valiant Thor in VT's NFL Selections   
    Week 2 update




    Poor on week 2 with only 8 from 16 total selections winning 
    Only 3 wins from 7 on the selected bets.
    The NAP started like a house on fire but faded badly in the 3rd & 4th quarters , Sundays NB bet was a shoo in

     
  25. Like
    gg-77 got a reaction from CzechPunter in Tennis Tips - September 12 - September 27   
    You never know with the Paire and these odds against him is not a good idea imo. He can just destroy Sinner if he is in the mood. Sinner still not solid enough to be that kind of fav against top 50 + he is at home might feel pressure being such a fav to win.
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