Australian Open 2022

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Men's draw: https://ausopen.com/draws#!mens-singles

Women's draw: https://ausopen.com/draws#!womens-singles

[four-leaf]

What's the status on Nole? By the looks of things I would pick Medvedev to win this years AO.

Edited January 13, 2022 by four-leaf

[four-leaf]

Seems like Nole is in the draw so he will play but I still think Meddy will be too strong.

Cressy looks set for a round 1 win over Isner.

[bet4fun]

2 hours ago, four-leaf said:

What's the status on Nole? By the looks of things I would pick Medvedev to win this years AO.

according to me based on moral and ethics djokovic should withdraw from the tournament. It will be too much pressure on him and I also read an article today saying he can be jailed for a year to a maximum of 5 yrs. he can be banned from australia for 3 yrs. so whatever he does next week he is going to lose points. so better lose now and escape jail

[CzechPunter]

Well, he's not going to jail, that much I can tell you. As for whether he plays or not, I think it's not set in stone yet.

[CzechPunter]

[neilovan]

On 1/13/2022 at 1:49 PM, four-leaf said:

What's the status on Nole? By the looks of things I would pick Medvedev to win this years AO.

He's playing in the new range of striped pajamas ? 

Looking at the woman's seeds. DO any of them look weak?

1. Ashleigh Barty (AUS): +275
2. Aryna Sabalenka (BLR): +1800
3. Garbiñe Muguruza (ESP): +1000
4. Barbora Krejcikova (CZE): +2000WON
5. Maria Sakkari (GRE): +2500WON
6. Anett Kontaveit (EST): +1400WON
7. Iga Swiatek (POL): +1200WON
8. Paula Badosa (ESP): +1600WON
9. Ons Jabeur (TUN): +4000 WITHDRAWAL
10. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (RUS): +3000WON
11. Sofia Kenin (USA): +5000 LOST
12. Elena Rybakina (KAZ): +1600WON
13. Naomi Osaka (JPN): +500WON
14. Simona Halep (ROU): +1200
15. Elina Svitolina (UKR): +4000WON
16. Angelique Kerber (GER): +4500
17. Emma Raducanu (GBR): +2500
18. Coco Gauff (USA):  UNEXPECTED LOSS
19. Elise Mertens (BEL): +5000WON
20. Petra Kvitova (CZE): +5000LOST 
21. Jessica Pegula (USA): +6000WON
22. Belinda Bencic (SUI): +3000WON
23. Leylah Fernandez (CAN): +3000UNEXPECTED LOSS
24. Victoria Azarenka (BLR): +3000WON
25. Daria Kasatkina (RUS): +5000WON
26. Jelena Ostapenko (LAT): +8000
27. Danielle Collins (USA): +4000
28. Veronika Kudermetova (RUS): OTBWON
29. Tamara Zidansek (SLO): +15000
30. Camila Giorgi (ITA): +5000WON
31. Marketa Vondrousova (CZE): +5000WON
32. Sara Sorribes Tormo (ESP): +20000WON

If you exclude the bold'ed players, could you easily win 26  of 32 bets in the first round? Would you make money?

Definitely see Kenin losing to Keys

Pegula struggling with Kalinina

Kvitova has a tough opponent in Cirstea who beat her last time out.

Mertens probably loses to Zvonareva

Radacanu loses to Stephens

Vondrousova losing to Hon. None of the above 6 has been playing particularly well.

Outsider to go go go deep. Clara Tauson

Edited January 18, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

Men's seeds

1.  
2. Daniil Medvedev (RUS): +225WON
3. Alexander Zverev (GER): +380WON
4. Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE): +3000
5. Andrey Rublev (RUS): +3000WON
6. Rafael Nadal (ESP): +1100WON
7. Matteo Berrettini (ITA): +3500WON
8. Casper Ruud (NOR): +5000
9. Felix Auger-Aliassime (CAN): +4000
10. Hubert Hurkacz (POL): +5000WON
11. Jannik Sinner (ITA): +2500WON
12. Cameron Norrie (GBR): +5000  CALLED THIS ONE
13. Diego Schwartzman (ARG): +13000WON
14. Denis Shapovalov (CAN): +10000WON
15. Roberto Bautista Agut (ESP): +8000WON
16. Cristian Garin (CHI): +40000WON
17. Gael Monfils (FRA): +20000WON
18. Aslan Karatsev (RUS): +10000WON
19. Pablo Carreno Busta (ESP): +10000WON
20. Taylor Fritz (USA): +15000
21. Nikoloz Basilashvili (GEO): +8000
22. John Isner (USA): +15000
23. Reilly Opelka (USA): OTBWON
24. Daniel Evans (GBR): +10000
25. Lorenzo Sonego (ITA): +13000
26. Grigor Dimitrov (BUL): +20000WON
27. Marin Cilic (CRO): +15000WON
28. Karen Khachanov (RUS): +10000WON
29. Ugo Humbert (FRA): +8000 UNEXPECTED LOSS
30. Lloyd Harris (RSA): +20000 UNEXPECTED LOSS ? Ridiculous to play no warm up matches
31. Carlos Alcaraz (ESP): +4000WON
32. Alex de Minaur (AUS): +10000

Norrie has a very tough draw against Korda. Could be done first round.

De Minaur playing against Musetti could see an upset.

Basilashvili gets a quick chance at revenge against Murray, who will prob be too strong.

Edited January 18, 2022 by neilovan

[four-leaf]

24 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

 

[neilovan]

I'm not a huge Djokovic fan, but he definitely brought this upon himself. Really not that big a deal to get vaccinated. 2 injections 6 weeks apart. He knew the rules before he showed up. The lack of concern for others (when he had COVID) is really working against him. Fair enough.

Even if he played, there would be too much on his mind and he would be too distracted. And the Aussie crowd would be heckling him relentlessly.

[four-leaf]

30 minutes ago, neilovan said:

I'm not a huge Djokovic fan, but he definitely brought this upon himself. Really not that big a deal to get vaccinated. 2 injections 6 weeks apart. He knew the rules before he showed up. The lack of concern for others (when he had COVID) is really working against him. Fair enough.

Even if he played, there would be too much on his mind and he would be too distracted. And the Aussie crowd would be heckling him relentlessly.

Yep they certainly would.

[bet4fun]

Djokovic hearing going on as i speak. Tomorrow he will meet immigration at 9 am austarlian time. If court uphelds decision he is barred from australia for 3 yrs. Just go and prepare for miami open. Dont fight with the aussies

Edited January 14, 2022 by bet4fun

[four-leaf]

Draper could have some challenger break through this season. I'm at least rather more confident in Draper than in Ritschard.

[CzechPunter]

Alright, guys! We’re just in time for the first Grand Slam of the new season and I’d like to wish everyone the best of luck! The lead-up has been largely overshadowed by the Djokovic saga, but that’s just how it was bound to be given what he triggered by his antics. It’s also a big bother for the pre-tournament betting, as he shouldn’t play, but who knows – the lawyers might score a good one and have it overturned just in time.

For that reason, I’m not going to place any long term bets just yet, especially since there are still two finals to go in a few hours. Andy Murray has recovered nicely from the Bagnis debacle and is now in the finals against Karatsev, while Kokkinakis is living the Aussie dream. As for the match bets, I’m decided on these so far:

Yulia Putintseva (-4.5) to beat Harmony Tan at 1.89 with Unibet

Putintseva is yet to play in this season, but she should be way too strong for Harmony Tan if she’s reasonably fit. I saw Tan lose against Potapova and she just looked like a walking bye in that match, horrible movement, poor unforced errors, bad everything. She had some decent results at the very end of the previous season in Linz, but she also lost to unknown players a bit before that. I don’t trust her at all and Putintseva is a player that will draw unforced errors from her.

Su Jeong Jang to beat Danka Kovinic at 1.95 with Pinnacle

Kovinic is playing with no belief these days and she’ll be up against Jang, who I was impressed with during the qualifiers. I saw her against Errani and Masarova and she looked very decent in both matches. She can run all day from the back of the baseline, she basically beat Errani at her own game in their showdown.

Katie Volynets to beat Beatriz Haddad Maia at 2.03 with Pinnacle

Above evens for a 6-0 qualifier? Count me in! I admit that I haven’t seen Haddad Maia recently, but she didn’t crush a 900-ranked player and then lost a set against Dabrowski, who’s a doubles specialist. That’s not a good start to the season and it just shows that she’s still struggling. Volynets has nothing to lose here, she has plenty of form and she beat Haddad Maia in Wimbledon last year. I don’t see a reason to have her as the underdog here.

Priscilla Hon (+6) to beat Marketa Vondrousova at 1.84 with Pinnacle

Yeah, Vondrousova is the favourite and I’ll be rooting for her, but +6 is a disrespectful handicap honestly. Hon should believe in herself after beating Kvitova and then troubling Azarenka for a large chunk of the match, while her loss against Cristian was very tight as well. Vondrousova is yet to get going this year, she had two hard-fought matches so far and 6 games is a lot to cover imo.

Heather Watson to beat Mayar Sherif 1.73 with William Hill

Watson is not the above average player she once was anymore, but she still has enough power to outplay Sherif, who has no real weapons. This is just a wrong match-up and, unless Watson goes missing big time, she should be comfortable in this one.

Matteo Berretini (-1.5 sets) to beat Brandon Nakashima at 1.83 with Sbobet

The only one I like in men’s in the first round so far. Berretini might be 1-2 for the season, but he played very well against Medvedev and Humbert, while Nakashima folded quite tamely against Opelka. Beating Fognini and Vesely, well, let’s just say that this doesn’t count for that much these days.

[four-leaf]

@CzechPunter I'll be taking all of your bets except Su Jeong on Unibet in a 5-fold.

Edited January 15, 2022 by four-leaf

[four-leaf]

[neilovan]

Two finals (warm up's this morning).  For me absolutely nothing to separate Murray and Karatsev. Murray probably wants it more, and it will be a major boost winning a warm up tournament. I'll go with him in a tight match. 

Kokkinakas v Rinderknech, it has to be Rinderknech.

Kokkinakis burned a lot of fuel yesterday in beating Cilic, and he may be a little low on emotion and energy. The last set went to 6-6, and he was 6-2 up in the breaker before blowing 5 points in a row. Eventually he won something like 14-12 but it would have been emotionally exhausting. Does he have something left in the tank? He looked like he was out on his feet at the end of that. Rinderknech also had a relatively easy passage past Moutet in semi (6-1,6-3).  and beat two very good players in Khachanov and Kwon  in previous rounds. 

[neilovan]

Just finished watching the womans 250 final between Badosa and Krecikova. Terrific match, excellent quality with great ball striking. Both played and hit the ball exceptionally well. Could have been an Aussie open semi-final, or definitely better quality than some of the WTA finals matches last year. Both will go far in the Aussie open.

Three upsets that I like for the woman.

Stephens over Radacanu. Radacanu has had covid, hardly practiced and comes into this match on the wrong side of a 6-0 6-1 thrashing (Rybakina). SHe was 6-0 0-2 down before she won a game. An absolute 45 minute spanking.  Radacanu also got beaten badly last two tournaments (Kostyk bashing her). If Stephens gets off to a half decent start this could be another 1 way demolition job.

Keys over Kenin. This match is actually a no-contest. Keys to blow Kenin off the court. 

Marino to beat Bouzkova. Marino is a very good player, but took a huge amount of time away from the game. SHe has the two weapons that help to dominate. A big serve and a big forehand. 

[neilovan]

2 hours ago, neilovan said:

Two finals (warm up's this morning).  For me absolutely nothing to separate Murray and Karatsev. Murray probably wants it more, and it will be a major boost winning a warm up tournament. I'll go with him in a tight match. 

Kokkinakas v Rinderknech, it has to be Rinderknech.

Kokkinakis burned a lot of fuel yesterday in beating Cilic, and he may be a little low on emotion and energy. The last set went to 6-6, and he was 6-2 up in the breaker before blowing 5 points in a row. Eventually he won something like 14-12 but it would have been emotionally exhausting. Does he have something left in the tank? He looked like he was out on his feet at the end of that. Rinderknech also had a relatively easy passage past Moutet in semi (6-1,6-3).  and beat two very good players in Khachanov and Kwon  in previous rounds. 

0-2 , oh oh at least it only was 1 bet

[neilovan]

Oh man, Really looking forward to the Aussie open. 

My strategy for betting tennis in the majors...

1) Everybody is bringing the best version of themselves to these tournaments. First round win is worth 100k, so four decent tournaments in a year sets a player up. Good quality players normally step up in the big 4 tournaments.

2) In 127 matches, most of the winning is done by a select few players. 

3) Don't be scared of low odds( 1.1 to 1.35) . 127 matches x 2 is plenty (woman's and men's draw) and first round has plenty of miss-matches. Take a couple of big legged bets in the early rounds, where the difference in abilities is huge. It get's much harder to predict winners by round 3 or 4.

4) When you take a huge legged bet, take your bigger risks early (chronologically) . It let's you build odds and value and you can trade out even if 5 of 20 legs have won.

5) The combination of 5 to 7% more difficult to beat a good player in a best of 5 set match + higher quality of the competitor = more consistent. 

6) Don't fall in love with anybody. Stuff happens, so don't overdo betting on anyone player. There are many many other opportunies.

 

I have two ridic bets for the tennis... just gotta get past a couple of football legs at the beginning;

• Placed On:15/01/22 14:00
• NUMBER OF BETS:1
• Cashout status:ELIGIBLE

1013991445

15/01/22 14:00

Newcastle United vs Watford FC

1ST HALF

- 9'

- 0:0

3-Way Odds (1X2) - 11.90

Ymer, Mikael vs Tsitsipas, Stefanos

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.16

Vondrousova, Marketa vs Hon, Priscilla

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.19

Voegele, Stefanie vs Kasatkina, Daria

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.17

Tiafoe, Frances vs Trungelliti, Marco

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.16

Tauson, Clara vs Sharma, Astra

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.25

Swiatek, Iga vs Dart, Harriet

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.12

Stephens, Sloane vs Raducanu, Emma

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.95

Sousa, Joao vs Sinner, Jannik

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.05

Schwartzman, Diego vs Krajinovic, Filip

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.30

Sanders, Storm vs Sabalenka, Aryna

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.29

Ruusuvuori, Emil vs Auger-Aliassime, Felix

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.37

Ruud, Casper vs Molcan, Alex

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.19

Marterer, Maximilian vs Fritz, Taylor

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.15

Kontaveit, Anett vs Siniakova, Katerina

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.14

Ivashka, Ilya vs Andujar, Pablo

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.15

Humbert, Ugo vs Gasquet, Richard

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.27

Evans, Daniel vs Goffin, David

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.31

Dolehide, Caroline vs Collins, Danielle

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.22

Diyas, Zarina vs Rybakina, Elena

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.17

Dimitrov, Grigor vs Lehecka, Jiri

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.14

Davidovich Fokina, Alejandro vs Bolt, Alex

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.27

Bautista Agut, Roberto vs Travaglia, Stefano

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.10

Maria, Tatjana vs Sakkari, Maria

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.08

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Southampton FC

LOST Double Chance - X21.71

 

DONE AND DUSTED RIGHT UP FRONT . NO PROB

 

 

Stake

Max. Payout

75.00

22032.24

Cashout 10.16

 

LOL 1st 2 football bets both lost. Bet down in flames before it got off the ground.

 

and 

 

Ruud, Casper vs Molcan, Alex

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.19

Van Uytvanck, Alison vs Bucsa, Cristina

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.35WON

Bektas, Emina vs Samsonova, Liudmila

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.23WON

Alcaraz, Carlos vs Tabilo, Alejandro

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.24WON

Kukushkin, Mikhail vs Paul, Tommy

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.25WON

Bautista Agut, Roberto vs Travaglia, Stefano

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.10WON

Wang, Qiang vs Gauff, Cori

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.13

Hurkacz, Hubert vs Gerasimov, Egor

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.14WON

Giron, Marcos vs Nadal, Rafael

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.07WON

Tomljanovic, Ajla vs Badosa, Paula

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.27WON

Sorribes Tormo, Sara vs Flipkens, Kirsten

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.27WON

Barty, Ashleigh vs Tsurenko, Lesia

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.09WON

Khachanov, Karen vs Kudla, Denis

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.13WON

Osorio Serrano, Maria Camila vs Osaka, Naomi

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.13WON

Manchester City vs Chelsea FC

3-Way Odds (1X2) - 1WON1.58

Djere, Laslo vs Shapovalov, Denis

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.14WON

1. FC Cologne vs Bayern Munich

3-Way Odds (1X2) - 21.38WON

Munar Clar, Jaume Antoni vs Karatsev, Aslan

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.27WON

Azarenka, Victoria vs Udvardy, Panna

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.11WON

Krejcikova, Barbora vs Petkovic, Andrea

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.20WON

Bencic, Belinda vs Mladenovic, Kristina

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.18WON

Parry, Diane vs Kostyuk, Marta

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.22WON

Hanfmann, Yannick vs Kokkinakis, Thanasi

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.27

Gomez, Emilio vs Cilic, Marin

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.09WON

Kenin, Sofia vs Keys, Madison

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.57WON

Ivashka, Ilya vs Andujar, Pablo

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.15

Diyas, Zarina vs Rybakina, Elena

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.17WON

Ferro, Fiona vs Svitolina, Elina

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.25WON

Kontaveit, Anett vs Siniakova, Katerina

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.14WON

Rublev, Andrey vs Mager, Gianluca

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.04WON

Stake

Max. Payout

100.00

27347.69

Cashout 17.89

 

As far as I can see these tennis bets can all win.  Only van Uytvanck scares me here.

LOL 1st 10 LEGS are in so only 20 to go ? and GUAFF DROPS THE BALL. EXPECTED IT FROM SOMEONE BUT NOT HER.

 

Good luck whatever you decide to do

 

Edited January 18, 2022 by neilovan

[Torque]

Best of luck @neilovan but I'll be very surprised if you don't have multiple losers on your slips. Scrolling quickly through what you've gone for, Tsitsipas might not be fully fit and Ymer has plenty of potential, I'd be uneasy about Tauson who retired in her last match, Stephens v Raducanu could go either way as the price suggests, Krajinovic is more than capable of causing an upset on hard, Sabalenka can't serve right now and is an unforced error machine, Keys isn't reliable because she's never consistent and Svitolina was terrible in her last match.

[CzechPunter]

Okay, taking a couple!

Iga Swiatek to win the 4th quarter at 3.75 with Bet365

Krejcikova to go further than Sabalenka at 1.66 with Bet365

Swiatek was very good until she ran into Barty and she won't run into her in the quarter. The price is really good for one of the biggest talents on the tour, Sabalenka is next in the quarter and she's a mess. That's why I'm also backing Krejcikova to go further than her. 

[neilovan]

23 minutes ago, Torque said:

Best of luck @neilovan but I'll be very surprised if you don't have multiple losers on your slips. Scrolling quickly through what you've gone for, Tsitsipas might not be fully fit and Ymer has plenty of potential, I'd be uneasy about Tauson who retired in her last match, Stephens v Raducanu could go either way as the price suggests, Krajinovic is more than capable of causing an upset on hard, Sabalenka can't serve right now and is an unforced error machine, Keys isn't reliable because she's never consistent and Svitolina was terrible in her last match.

Keys just won her last tournament, Radacanu is playing like a 4.5 level club player. At the moment useless, with no match time and no confidence. She has been smashed 3 times in a row, has had covid, has not practiced at all. Ymer is like a Michael Mmoh, de Minunar (look good, no weapons) type player. Tauson is a future star, who will do very well this coming week, my dark horse outsider to go far. Schwartzman is just so mentally tough ... he will crunch Krajinovic (journeyman) in a clash of very similar playing styles.  Sabalenka doesn't have to play near her best to win, but has a dynamite serve a potent first strike.

But look, these are long shot 'bet and forget' type bets. If one comes off I'm in the money.

[liquidglass]

11 hours ago, neilovan said:

Oh man, Really looking forward to the Aussie open. 

My strategy for betting tennis in the majors...

1) Everybody is bringing the best version of themselves to these tournaments. First round win is worth 100k, so four decent tournaments in a year sets a player up. Good quality players normally step up in the big 4 tournaments.

2) In 127 matches, most of the winning is done by a select few players. 

3) Don't be scared of low odds( 1.1 to 1.35) . 127 matches x 2 is plenty (woman's and men's draw) and first round has plenty of miss-matches. Take a couple of big legged bets in the early rounds, where the difference in abilities is huge. It get's much harder to predict winners by round 3 or 4.

4) When you take a huge legged bet, take your bigger risks early (chronologically) . It let's you build odds and value and you can trade out even if 5 of 20 legs have won.

5) The combination of 5 to 7% more difficult to beat a good player in a best of 5 set match + higher quality of the competitor = more consistent. 

6) Don't fall in love with anybody. Stuff happens, so don't overdo betting on anyone player. There are many many other opportunies.

 

I have two ridic bets for the tennis... just gotta get past a couple of football legs at the beginning;

• Placed On:15/01/22 14:00
• NUMBER OF BETS:1
• Cashout status:ELIGIBLE

1013991445

15/01/22 14:00

Newcastle United vs Watford FC

1ST HALF

- 9'

- 0:0

3-Way Odds (1X2) - 11.90

Ymer, Mikael vs Tsitsipas, Stefanos

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.16

Vondrousova, Marketa vs Hon, Priscilla

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.19

Voegele, Stefanie vs Kasatkina, Daria

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.17

Tiafoe, Frances vs Trungelliti, Marco

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.16

Tauson, Clara vs Sharma, Astra

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.25

Swiatek, Iga vs Dart, Harriet

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.12

Stephens, Sloane vs Raducanu, Emma

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.95

Sousa, Joao vs Sinner, Jannik

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.05

Schwartzman, Diego vs Krajinovic, Filip

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.30

Sanders, Storm vs Sabalenka, Aryna

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.29

Ruusuvuori, Emil vs Auger-Aliassime, Felix

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.37

Ruud, Casper vs Molcan, Alex

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.19

Marterer, Maximilian vs Fritz, Taylor

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.15

Kontaveit, Anett vs Siniakova, Katerina

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.14

Ivashka, Ilya vs Andujar, Pablo

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.15

Humbert, Ugo vs Gasquet, Richard

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.27

Evans, Daniel vs Goffin, David

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.31

Dolehide, Caroline vs Collins, Danielle

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.22

Diyas, Zarina vs Rybakina, Elena

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.17

Dimitrov, Grigor vs Lehecka, Jiri

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.14

Davidovich Fokina, Alejandro vs Bolt, Alex

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.27

Bautista Agut, Roberto vs Travaglia, Stefano

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.10

Maria, Tatjana vs Sakkari, Maria

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.08

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Southampton FC

LOST Double Chance - X21.71

Stake

Max. Payout

75.00

22032.24

Cashout 10.16

 

LOL 1st 2 football bets both lost. Bet down in flames before it got off the ground.

 

and 

 

Ruud, Casper vs Molcan, Alex

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.19

Van Uytvanck, Alison vs Bucsa, Cristina

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.35

Bektas, Emina vs Samsonova, Liudmila

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.23

Alcaraz, Carlos vs Tabilo, Alejandro

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.24

Kukushkin, Mikhail vs Paul, Tommy

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.25

Bautista Agut, Roberto vs Travaglia, Stefano

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.10

Wang, Qiang vs Gauff, Cori

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.13

Hurkacz, Hubert vs Gerasimov, Egor

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.14

Giron, Marcos vs Nadal, Rafael

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.07

Tomljanovic, Ajla vs Badosa, Paula

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.27

Sorribes Tormo, Sara vs Flipkens, Kirsten

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.27

Barty, Ashleigh vs Tsurenko, Lesia

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.09

Khachanov, Karen vs Kudla, Denis

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.13

Osorio Serrano, Maria Camila vs Osaka, Naomi

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.13

Manchester City vs Chelsea FC

3-Way Odds (1X2) - 1WON1.58

Djere, Laslo vs Shapovalov, Denis

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.14

1. FC Cologne vs Bayern MunichWON

3-Way Odds (1X2) - 21.38

Munar Clar, Jaume Antoni vs Karatsev, Aslan

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.27

Azarenka, Victoria vs Udvardy, Panna

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.11

Krejcikova, Barbora vs Petkovic, Andrea

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.20

Bencic, Belinda vs Mladenovic, Kristina

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.18

Parry, Diane vs Kostyuk, Marta

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.22

Hanfmann, Yannick vs Kokkinakis, Thanasi

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.27

Gomez, Emilio vs Cilic, Marin

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.09

Kenin, Sofia vs Keys, Madison

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.57

Ivashka, Ilya vs Andujar, Pablo

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.15

Diyas, Zarina vs Rybakina, Elena

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.17

Ferro, Fiona vs Svitolina, Elina

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.25

Kontaveit, Anett vs Siniakova, Katerina

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.14

Rublev, Andrey vs Mager, Gianluca

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.04

Stake

Max. Payout

100.00

27347.69

Cashout 17.89

 

As far as I can see these tennis bets can all win.  Only van Uytvanck scares me here.

 

Good luck whatever you decide to do

Really?? You must either be new to these 2 mile long parlays or have a lot of hope to burn expecting the almost impossible to happen. You are sitting on a minefield blindfolded.

[liquidglass]

On 1/15/2022 at 2:17 AM, CzechPunter said:

Alright, guys! We’re just in time for the first Grand Slam of the new season and I’d like to wish everyone the best of luck! The lead-up has been largely overshadowed by the Djokovic saga, but that’s just how it was bound to be given what he triggered by his antics. It’s also a big bother for the pre-tournament betting, as he shouldn’t play, but who knows – the lawyers might score a good one and have it overturned just in time.

For that reason, I’m not going to place any long term bets just yet, especially since there are still two finals to go in a few hours. Andy Murray has recovered nicely from the Bagnis debacle and is now in the finals against Karatsev, while Kokkinakis is living the Aussie dream. As for the match bets, I’m decided on these so far:

Yulia Putintseva (-4.5) to beat Harmony Tan at 1.89 with Unibet

Putintseva is yet to play in this season, but she should be way too strong for Harmony Tan if she’s reasonably fit. I saw Tan lose against Potapova and she just looked like a walking bye in that match, horrible movement, poor unforced errors, bad everything. She had some decent results at the very end of the previous season in Linz, but she also lost to unknown players a bit before that. I don’t trust her at all and Putintseva is a player that will draw unforced errors from her.

Su Jeong Jang to beat Danka Kovinic at 1.95 with Pinnacle

Kovinic is playing with no belief these days and she’ll be up against Jang, who I was impressed with during the qualifiers. I saw her against Errani and Masarova and she looked very decent in both matches. She can run all day from the back of the baseline, she basically beat Errani at her own game in their showdown.

Katie Volynets to beat Beatriz Haddad Maia at 2.03 with Pinnacle

Above evens for a 6-0 qualifier? Count me in! I admit that I haven’t seen Haddad Maia recently, but she didn’t crush a 900-ranked player and then lost a set against Dabrowski, who’s a doubles specialist. That’s not a good start to the season and it just shows that she’s still struggling. Volynets has nothing to lose here, she has plenty of form and she beat Haddad Maia in Wimbledon last year. I don’t see a reason to have her as the underdog here.

Priscilla Hon (+6) to beat Marketa Vondrousova at 1.84 with Pinnacle

Yeah, Vondrousova is the favourite and I’ll be rooting for her, but +6 is a disrespectful handicap honestly. Hon should believe in herself after beating Kvitova and then troubling Azarenka for a large chunk of the match, while her loss against Cristian was very tight as well. Vondrousova is yet to get going this year, she had two hard-fought matches so far and 6 games is a lot to cover imo.

Heather Watson to beat Mayar Sherif 1.73 with William Hill

Watson is not the above average player she once was anymore, but she still has enough power to outplay Sherif, who has no real weapons. This is just a wrong match-up and, unless Watson goes missing big time, she should be comfortable in this one.

Matteo Berretini (-1.5 sets) to beat Brandon Nakashima at 1.83 with Sbobet

The only one I like in men’s in the first round so far. Berretini might be 1-2 for the season, but he played very well against Medvedev and Humbert, while Nakashima folded quite tamely against Opelka. Beating Fognini and Vesely, well, let’s just say that this doesn’t count for that much these days.

I think that while it might be fair to say that Vondrousova has not got going yet, it will be right to say that from the matches that she has already played, she would seem to have enough firepower to beat an opponent who certainly cannot cope with her mixed spins and general pace of play. The Hon problem with Vondrousova is specificallyabout a very horrible matchup. In the two times they have played Hon was bagled on both occasions amidst a runaway scoreline. I just think that the match is too risky and should be better left alone on a day when there are so many other alternatives.

Edited January 16, 2022 by liquidglass

[Sofi]

I have a 15 team parlay with

Sabalenka, Rybakina, Kostyuk, Gauff, Osaka, Jabeur, Paul, Alcaraz, Shapo, Tiafoe, Tsitsipas, Ruud, Anisimova, Azarenka & Swiatek. (pays 6.7) for a substantial amount. $1552/$8852. 

( Wrote all this up before I realized I could just show the tickets but I'll just leave it up there)

 You just know there's gonna be 2 or 3 rotten eggs in that bunch so I'm not exactly getting my hopes up.

 

Edited January 16, 2022 by Sofi

[neilovan]

5 hours ago, liquidglass said:

Really?? You must either be new to these 2 mile long parlays or have a lot of hope to burn expecting the almost impossible to happen. You are sitting on a minefield blindfolded.

No, just two inconsequential bets that are really really looong shots. That's not where or how I make my money.

Edited January 16, 2022 by neilovan

[CzechPunter]

Welcome @Sofi, care to give us your reasons for the bets selected?

So what are the good alternatives according to you @liquidglass?

[neilovan]

On 1/16/2022 at 9:50 AM, Snooker Loopy said:

Surely a 30-part accumulator, mixing tennis and football bets, without any reasoning provided, belongs in the glory hunters section of the forum at best, or perhaps best kept to yourself, or perhaps even belongs in the bin.

I can’t think of any circumstances where a 30-part bet would be a worthwhile exercise. Winning a 3-part bet is difficult enough. Like others have said, this won’t come close to winning.

Here is a 5 legged bet that won easily, posted in the Jan 16th forum

Madison Keyes looks in great form, and I expect her to beat Martincova quite easily. My number 1 bet. SHe is a fantastic ball striker, and can beat anyone if slightly tuned in and ready to play.

Would be taking a 5 legged bet of:

Bencic,WON

Krejcikova,WON

Keyes,WON

Konteveit,WON

JabeurWON

all to win at 2.6 to 1.

 

This year I have taken 50 bets on tennis winning 44 times for a strike rate of 88%. My average odds are .295 which gives implied win rate of 1/(1+.295) or 77% so I am well ahead, especially when adding in variable staking. I am applying Tableau visualisations to big data sets, and doing some fancy ML modelling as well. My numbers are ridiculously good. I already had a 22 bet winning streak, and last year I had one that was  a 27 game in a row win streak.  So 5 wins in a row is actually not that tricky.

In the matches below, Voegele played badly and was injured. Pegula played terrible tennis both matches. van Uytvank just came off winning a warm up tournament and must have been jet-lagged to lose. 

My 50 bets are below and the 6 loses are in bold.

1/1/2022	Lajovic, Dusan v Ruud, Casper	Ruud, Casper	0.22
1/1/2022	Tabilo, Alejandro v Carreno-Busta, Pablo	Carreno Busta	0.19
1/3/2022	Watson, Heather v Tomljanovic, Ajla	Tomljanovic, Ajla	0.27
1/3/2022	Voegele, Stefanie v Papamichail, Despina	Voegele, Stefanie	0.12
1/3/2022	LI, Ann v Sherif, Mayar	LI, Ann	0.27
1/3/2022	Pegula, Jessica v Begu, Irina-Camelia	Pegula, Jessica	0.2
1/3/2022	Tauson, Clara v Kalinina, Anhelina	Tauson, Clara	0.33
1/4/2022	T Paul v J Vesely	T Paul	0.33
1/4/2022	S Rogers v M Ingglis	S Rogers	0.25
1/4/2022	E Ruse v A Rodionova	I Ruse	0.14
1/5/2022	M Cilic v T Monteiro	M Cilic	0.3
1/5/2022	Potapova, Anastasia v Cabrera, Lizette	Potapova, Anastasia	0.18
1/5/2022	Parrizas Diaz, Nuria v Perez, Ellen	Parrizas Diaz	0.39
1/5/2022	Carreno-Busta v Krajinovic	Carreno-Busta	0.44
1/6/2022	E Ruusuvouri v J Thompson	E Ruusuvouri	0.44
1/6/2022	T Paul v T Daniel	T Paul	0.3
1/6/2022	V Azarenka v P Hon	V Azarenka	0.16
1/6/2022	S Halep v EG Ruse	S Halep	0.16
1/6/2022	v Golubic v L Kerkhove	V Golubic	0.34
1/6/2022	V Kudermetova v M Brengle	V Kudermetova	0.36
1/6/2022	C Tauson v L Zhu	C Tauson	0.25
1/7/2022	D Kasatkina v N Parrizas-Dias	D Kasatkina	0.36
1/9/2022	S Halep v V Kudermetova	S Halep	0.36
1/9/2022	R Carballes Baena v JP Smith	R Carballes Baena	0.28
1/9/2022	A Potapova v H Tan	A Potapova	0.32
1/10/2022	Sharma, Astra v Jabeur, Ons	Jabeur, Ons	0.16
1/10/2022	Kvitova, Petra v Rus, Arantxa	Kvitova, Petra	0.18
1/10/2022	L Davis v E Houzumi	L Davis	0.18
1/10/2022	van Uytvanck v D Yastremska	van Uytvanck	0.44
1/11/2022	B Nakashima v J Vesely	B Nakashima	0.44
1/11/2022	JJ Wolf v S Stakhovsky	JJ Wolf	0.39
1/11/2022	B Bencic v B Haddad Maia	B Bencic	0.33
1/11/2022	Pegula, Jessica v Garcia, Caroline	Pegula, Jessica	0.21
1/11/2022	L Tsurenko v A Raina	L Tsurenko	0.18
1/11/2022	Samsonova, Liudmila v Sherif, Mayar	Samsonova, Liudmila	0.28
1/11/2022	Siniakova, Katerina v Gauff, Cori	C Gauff	0.27
1/12/2022	Voegele v Osuigwe	Voegele, Stefanie	0.3
1/12/2022	Kontaveit, Anett vs Ruse, Elena-Gabriela	Kontaveit, Anett	0.16
1/12/2022	Zidansek, Tamara vs Inglis, Maddison	Zidansek, Tamara	0.32
1/12/2022	Dodin, Oceane vs Bencic, Belinda	Bencic, Belinda	0.25
1/12/2022	Kostyuk, Marta v Gauff, Cori	Gauff, Cori	0.39
1/12/2022	Badosa, Paula v Tomljanovic, Ajla	Badosa, Paula	0.44
1/12/2022	Martincova, Tereza v Keys, Madison	Keys, Madison	0.42
1/12/2022	Paolini, Jasmine v Davis, Lauren	Paolini, Jasmine	0.44
1/12/2022	Munar Clar, Jaume v Cilic, Marin	Cilic, Marin	0.4
1/12/2022	Paul, Tommy v Bonzi, Benjamin	T Paul	0.42
1/13/2022	l Tsurenko v A Muhammed	L Tsurenko	0.26
1/13/2022	C Gauff v A Konjah	C Gauff	0.33
1/13/2022	B Krejcikova v C Garcia	B Krejcikova	0.2
1/14/2022	E Escobedo v M Kukushkin	E Escobedo	0.4

 

2 players that have caught me badly are Radacanu and Pegula who both lost twice.  I'll stay away from them

Is a bet like below so crazy? Badosa and Krejicova playing unreal tennis. When Krejicoka plays somebody ranked lower than 45 she wins. It is as close to a banker as you can get. Jabeur will blitz her opponent, Bencic playing great, losing a titanic struggle with Badosa in the semi's this week. The only marginal bet is Svitolina, but I simply don't think Ferro has a game to challenge her at all. Also, an extra couple of days practice and acclimation never hurts, and will help the better player more.

. Rugby is a very easy sport to win in, far easier than soccer. Dominance results in points and games are almost never drawn. It's the perfect company for some tennis bets when you wish to build the odds. Before someone has hit a ball you already have odds of 2.69 in the bank, which multiple up supa quick.

DHL Western Province vs Golden Lions

Full Time - 1WON1.45

Tomljanovic, Ajla vs Badosa, Paula

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.27WON

Krejcikova, Barbora vs Petkovic, Andrea

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.20WON

Jabeur, Ons vs Parrizas Diaz, Nuria CANCELLED

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.16

Ferro, Fiona vs Svitolina, Elina

2-Way Odds (12) - 21.25WON

Bencic, Belinda vs Mladenovic, Kristina

2-Way Odds (12) - 11.18WON

USA Perpignan vs Lyon Ou

Full Time - 2WON1.24

Exeter RC Chiefs vs Glasgow Warriors

Full Time - 1WON1.25

Ospreys vs Racing 92

Full Time - 2WON1.15

Benetton Treviso vs Dragons

Full Time - 1WON1.43

Stake

Max. Payout

125.00

1204.7WON

 

 

 

Would I try and do this in the 3+rd round in the Aussie open? No. You have no chance as the gap between the competitors narrows. You have to fire in the early rounds, when the miss matches are so apparent. With tennis, try and bet in time groups. So get early bets in and finished , and you can then roll your bank  over 3 times in 1 day. SO if you can, avoid betting 2am matches and a 1pm match, as your money is tied up for hours.

Here is another bet for the day and finishing early games in tennis tomorrow. Stars should win (especially if Maxwell bats for 25+ balls), Liverpool should beat Brentford at home. ALcarz way too good for Tabilo, Mladenovic just with no confidence. Bencic is just as tough as nails. That game against Badosa was unreal, as she saved break point after break poiint. Mentally this match is a no -contest. Shapavalov had a terrible run after WImbledon last year. Lost all kinds of bad matches (lost to a guy called Vit Kopriva in a nothing tournament), which destroyed his confidence. Looked pretty good at the ATP cup, getting better and better as the week went on. His win in the final was against a player that looked tired, but still impressive.

 

Sun, 09 Jan Final·Ken Rosewall Arena Final   P. Carreño 4 3     D. Shapovalov 6 6

Sat, 08 Jan Semi-final·Ken Rosewall Arena Final   D. Shapovalov 6 5 6     R. Safiullin 4 7 4

Thu, 06 Jan Group stage·Qudos Bank Arena Final   J. Struff 65 6 3     D. Shapovalov 77 4 6

Tue, 04 Jan Group stage·Ken Rosewall Arena Final   D. Shapovalov 4 4     D. Evans 6 6

Osaka to win her match. Blow out!

Melbourne Stars v Brisbane Heat

Match winner, including super over 11.57WON

Liverpool FC v Brentford FC

3-Way Odds (1X2) 11.24WON

Alcaraz, Carlos v Tabilo, AlejandroWON

2-Way Odds (12) 11.20

Bencic, Belinda v Mladenovic, KristinaWON

2-Way Odds (12) 11.18

Djere, Laslo v Shapovalov, DenisWON

2-Way Odds (12) 21.13

Osorio Serrano, Maria Camila v Osaka, NaomiWON

2-Way Odds (12) 21.13

Stake

Max. Payout

387.00

1362.24 WON

 

 

Edited January 18, 2022 by neilovan